Tracking the el nino

[Billy_Bob]

Billy, you've been predicting this el Nino would fall apart for months now. It has only grown stronger. Where do you get the delusion that you know what the fuck you're talking about? Reality certainly doesn't support it.

Now, for the opinion of the folks who actually know what they're talking about. Emphases mine.


EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 September 2015

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory



Synopsis: There is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016.

During August, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were near or greater than +2.0oC across the eastern half of the tropical Pacific (Fig. 1). SST anomalies increased in the Niño-3.4 and Niño 3-regions, were approximately unchanged in the Niño-4 region, and decreased in the Niño-1+2 region (Fig. 2). Large positive subsurface temperature anomalies persisted in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific during the month (Fig. 3), with the largest departures exceeding 6oC (Fig. 4). The atmosphere remained coupled to the anomalous oceanic warmth, with significant low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies persisting from the western to east-central tropical Pacific. Also, the traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) were again negative, consistent with enhanced convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic anomalies reflect a strong El Niño.

All models surveyed predict El Niño to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2016, and all multi-model averages predict a peak in late fall/early winter (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index of +1.5oC or greater; Fig. 6). The forecaster consensus unanimously favors a strong El Niño, with peak 3-month SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region near or exceeding +2.0oC. Overall, there is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

Across the contiguous United States, temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Niño are expected to remain minimal during the early Northern Hemisphere fall and increase into the late fall and winter (the 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday September 17th). El Niño will likely contribute to a below normal Atlantic hurricane season, and to above-normal hurricane seasons in both the central and eastern Pacific hurricane basins (click Hurricane season outlook for more).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in theForecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8 October 2015. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: [email protected].


Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
College Park, MD 20740

I'm not sure, Billy Boy, I've ever met someone with such unassailable expertise at making themselves look a fool.

Do you ever look around yourself and verify what these fools tell you or are you simply a left wing fool parrot?

 

[Billy_Bob]

Again I believe you're confused. Billy made no prediction. He has supplied supporting material and status.

What I find amusing about these folks, there has been no warming except for the equatorial region with this El Nino.

In the tropics, warmest August in the satellite temperature record
Global climate trend since Nov. 16, 1978: +0.11 C per decade
August temperatures (preliminary)
Global composite temp.: +0.28 C (about 0.50 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for August.
Northern Hemisphere: +0.25 C (about 0.45 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for August.
Southern Hemisphere: +0.31 C (about 0.56 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for August.
Tropics: +0.52 C (about 0.94 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for August.
July temperatures (revised):
Global Composite: +0.18 C above 30-year average
Northern Hemisphere: +0.33 C above 30-year average
Southern Hemisphere: +0.03 C below 30-year average
Tropics: +0.48 C above 30-year average
(All temperature anomalies are based on a 30-year average (1981-2010) for the month reported.)

This El Nino is not a global event. It is only affecting a small region of the earth. Unlike the 1998 El Nino which was a global event. We are not seeing temperature rise in the northern hemisphere outside of normal cyclical variation.

And the GLOBAL WARMING STOP is now at 18 years 8 months, and growing..

Global Temperature Report: August 2015

Even the warming in the tropics is not major..

 

[Crick]

Billy, you've been predicting this el Nino would fall apart for months now. It has only grown stronger. Where do you get the delusion that you know what the fuck you're talking about? Reality certainly doesn't support it.

Now, for the opinion of the folks who actually know what they're talking about. Emphases mine.


EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 September 2015

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

Synopsis: There is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016.

During August, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were near or greater than +2.0oC across the eastern half of the tropical Pacific (Fig. 1). SST anomalies increased in the Niño-3.4 and Niño 3-regions, were approximately unchanged in the Niño-4 region, and decreased in the Niño-1+2 region (Fig. 2). Large positive subsurface temperature anomalies persisted in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific during the month (Fig. 3), with the largest departures exceeding 6oC (Fig. 4). The atmosphere remained coupled to the anomalous oceanic warmth, with significant low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies persisting from the western to east-central tropical Pacific. Also, the traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) were again negative, consistent with enhanced convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic anomalies reflect a strong El Niño.

All models surveyed predict El Niño to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2016, and all multi-model averages predict a peak in late fall/early winter (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index of +1.5oC or greater; Fig. 6). The forecaster consensus unanimously favors a strong El Niño, with peak 3-month SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region near or exceeding +2.0oC. Overall, there is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

Across the contiguous United States, temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Niño are expected to remain minimal during the early Northern Hemisphere fall and increase into the late fall and winter (the 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday September 17th). El Niño will likely contribute to a below normal Atlantic hurricane season, and to above-normal hurricane seasons in both the central and eastern Pacific hurricane basins (click Hurricane season outlook for more).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in theForecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8 October 2015. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: [email protected].

Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
College Park, MD 20740

I'm not sure, Billy Boy, I've ever met someone with such unassailable expertise at making themselves look a fool.

Do you ever look around yourself and verify what these fools tell you or are you simply a left wing fool parrot?

Actually, I think I can safely rely on the rest of the world's meteorologists and climate scientists to do that. Not so much with you. No one's listening to your claims except the handful of whack jobs who populate this board.

 

[Billy_Bob]

this should send some shockwaves through the alarmist shill community..

Region 3-4 has dropped to +1.61 Deg C Anomaly. At this rate of decline the El Nino wont be present in just a few short weeks.

 

[Billy_Bob]

And Region 1-2 is falling like a rock!

 

[Crick]

this should send some shockwaves through the alarmist shill community..

Region 3-4 has dropped to +1.61 Deg C Anomaly. At this rate of decline the El Nino wont be present in just a few short weeks.

Can you not read your own graph?

 

[ScienceRocks]

up to 2.3C this week

With this the reading is the strongest weekly reading for the month of September for 3.4 beating 1997's 2.2C. This after August had its highest.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

 

[Old Rocks]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

The latest weekly SST
departures are:
Niño 4 1.1ºC
Niño 3.4 2.3ºC
Niño 3 2.7ºC
Niño 1+2 2.6ºC

My goodness, Mr. Billy Bob, whatever happened to your El Molke? Or was that El Monkey?

 

[Old Rocks]

Wow, Billy Bob, that is some rock you have there. Fell upwards. Region 1-2 went from about 2.2 to 2.6. By golly, you are hitting a perfect -100% on your prognostications.

 

[Crick]

Today's map!

Funny, Billy hasn't posted on this thread for 24 days. What could that possibly mean? Billy? Billy me lad, are ye out there?

Back to NOAA

Summary
El Niño Advisory El Niño conditions are present.* Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean. There is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016.*
************************************************************************************************
The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 ............ 1.1ºC
Niño 3.4 ......... 2.3ºC
Niño 3 ............ 2.6ºC
Niño 1+2 ........ 2.7ºC


"...like a ROCK" ---Billy Bob

 

[jc456]

Today's map!

Funny, Billy hasn't posted on this thread for 24 days. What could that possibly mean? Billy? Billy me lad, are ye out there?

that's pretty sad dude, you obviously don't even look at the posts 9/13. Perhaps you meant 14 days, but 24 huh-uh

 

[Crick]

Today's map!

Funny, Billy hasn't posted on this thread for 13 days. What could that possibly mean? Billy? Billy me lad, are ye out there?

Back to NOAA

Summary
El Niño Advisory El Niño conditions are present.* Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean. There is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016.*
************************************************************************************************
The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 ............ 1.1ºC
Niño 3.4 ......... 2.3ºC
Niño 3 ............ 2.6ºC
Niño 1+2 ........ 2.7ºC


"...like a ROCK" ---Billy Bob

 

[CrusaderFrank]

CO2 causes El Nino? Really?

 

[Billy_Bob]

Today's map!

Funny, Billy hasn't posted on this thread for 13 days. What could that possibly mean? Billy? Billy me lad, are ye out there?

Back to NOAA

Summary
El Niño Advisory El Niño conditions are present.* Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean. There is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016.*
************************************************************************************************
The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 ............ 1.1ºC
Niño 3.4 ......... 2.3ºC
Niño 3 ............ 2.6ºC
Niño 1+2 ........ 2.7ºC


"...like a ROCK" ---Billy Bob

Yep. Its going to be just like a rock... down is where we go from here.

 

[Old Rocks]

Well, yes, that is what normally happens with the El Nino-La Nina cycle. However, that is not what you were predicting at the start of this year,and not what you have been saying for months. The El Monkey here is you.

 

[ScienceRocks]

El nino is a natural climate cycle and no it isn't caused by co2! I never said that it was. haha

 

[Old Rocks]

Billy Bob on 26April15

EL NADA is about to go away with a vengeance as cooler water is now cycling and a La Nina is building...
Were about to have a serious drop in ocean temps.. And Mathew is hoping like hell it will last through may and the Paris convention... At current rate of decline we will go negative mid May.

2May15

Volcanic Heat mistaken for strengthening El Nino.

Hmmmmmmm......................

 

[Old Rocks]

Billy Bob on

16June15

Temps set to rapidly decline... looks like this El Moki is going away...

Heat around Greenland is now gone and the DWCR has risen cooling the ocean currents around the Continental shelf. Atlantic going deep cold, and it appears there is going to be some rapid ice build up this winter in the arctic region in this area.

Heat around Alaska and the oregon coast is now diminishing. With no Westerlies forming, the heat in the Pacific is now waning..Region 3-4 should take a 0.1-0.2 cooling this next week.The region one warm pool is now depleted. Nowhere to go but down from here..

Hmmmmmmmmmmm........................

 

[Old Rocks]

BillyBob on 12July15

Looks like the replenishing waters for the Blob are now decoupled and surface temps are now cooling rapidly... Cold pockets in region 4 and the southern hemisphere are blocking further El Nino development. -0.5 degree water anomaly is now penetrating to the arctic. just like the Atlantic cool is now taking over. Watch for the temperature flip in the next couple of months.

And this fellow still maintains that he is an authority on meteorology. He is a silly liar that has only politically driven statements, knows zero of science. Really pathetic individual. We have a number of them like him on this board.

 

[Old Rocks]

Hey Billy Bob, how long is this El Monkey going to stay at 2.3? How about giving us one of your famous prognostications.