Tracking the el nino

[flacaltenn]

I predict it stays long enough to give me an excuse for some Spring Skiing at Tahoe..
Love those bikini days in April...

 

[Crick]

Today's map!

Funny, Billy hasn't posted on this thread for 13 days. What could that possibly mean? Billy? Billy me lad, are ye out there?

Back to NOAA

Summary
El Niño Advisory El Niño conditions are present.* Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean. There is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016.*
************************************************************************************************
The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 ............ 1.1ºC
Niño 3.4 ......... 2.3ºC
Niño 3 ............ 2.6ºC
Niño 1+2 ........ 2.7ºC


"...like a ROCK" ---Billy Bob

Yep. Its going to be just like a rock... down is where we go from here.

Oh... you didn't mean it was dropping like a rock. You meant it's climbing to never-before-seen highs from which it must eventually fall.

My god are you stupid.

 

[Old Rocks]

Well, I hope you are correct. Hope some of that makes it up to Eastern Oregon.

 

[flacaltenn]

Wake me up when some boiling starts. I want to apologize to James Hansen..

 

[Billy_Bob]

Today's map!

Funny, Billy hasn't posted on this thread for 13 days. What could that possibly mean? Billy? Billy me lad, are ye out there?

Back to NOAA

Summary
El Niño Advisory El Niño conditions are present.* Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean. There is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016.*
************************************************************************************************
The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 ............ 1.1ºC
Niño 3.4 ......... 2.3ºC
Niño 3 ............ 2.6ºC
Niño 1+2 ........ 2.7ºC


"...like a ROCK" ---Billy Bob

Yep. Its going to be just like a rock... down is where we go from here.

Oh... you didn't mean it was dropping like a rock. You meant it's climbing to never-before-seen highs from which it must eventually fall.

My god are you stupid.

You really are a total fool..

Tell me crick, how do you get your estimations to become accurate out to 100th of a degree?

And as to the El Nino, the regions are all COOLING and no new heat is being introduced because the westerlies are fading..

But go stick you head in the sand. Its where you like to be after all.

 

[Crick]

Billy, when do you believe this el Nino will end Billy?

 

[Old Rocks]

Well, ol' Billy Bob is depending on the fact that eventually this El Nino has to go the other way. Then he will be on here crowing how he was right the whole time. And we will just post his past posts to show what an ass he truly is.

 

[flacaltenn]

Well, ol' Billy Bob is depending on the fact that eventually this El Nino has to go the other way. Then he will be on here crowing how he was right the whole time. And we will just post his past posts to show what an ass he truly is.

Kinda like you guys just waiting for the "pause" to end -- so you can get a big "told you so" moment eh?



How long can you stretch THAT prediction out?? Probably WILL end. Wanna start a pool on which way it goes after that? I'd need like a 20 to 1 payout -- but under those conditions -- I'd short the temperature for at least a couple years. Send me some of that recreational weed you west coast stoners are stashing and I'd take those odds.

 

[Old Rocks]

Well, I don't use, and, of course, have no stash. And saying that the temperature will go down for a couple of year is hardly a reversal. Pinotubo did that. As for the 'pause', given that you silly asses base that on beginning that period at 1998, rather than the whole record, I hardly see a real 'pause'. And, with the temps in 2015, we are seeing a bump up once more.

Funny, you fellows like to talk of natural variation explaining everything, but when we bring up the fact that the natural variation will be imprinted on top of the increasing temperatures, you start talking of 'pause' and 'cooling'.

What is happening is that you have your normal wiggles, but now they are tipped up to the right. So what would have previously been a short downturn, is now a 'pause'.

 

[longknife]

Strong El Niño Persists, And It’s Likely to Continue Into Spring. Here’s Why.

Read full story @ Latest Update: Strong El Niño Persists, And It's Likely to Continue Into Spring. Here's Why. - ImaGeo

 

[ScienceRocks]

Big tick up on the daily 3.4

This is smaller than original. Click this bar to view the full image. The original is 768x384.

 

[Crick]

Billy, when do you believe this el Nino will?

Billy BoB?!?!? WHEN Bill Bob,WHEN? It's already gone further than you said it'd go. Where's it going Billy> Don't you have the master maps? Tell us what's going to happen and why?

 

[Old Rocks]

Strong El Niño Persists, And It’s Likely to Continue Into Spring. Here’s Why.

Read full story @ Latest Update: Strong El Niño Persists, And It's Likely to Continue Into Spring. Here's Why. - ImaGeo

Shhhhhhh.................. Billy Bob knows that is not so.

 

[Old Rocks]

Hey Billy Bob, why don't you put all of your weather predictions here. Keep all the nonsense in one thread.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Up to 2.4c at 3.4
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

 

[Old Rocks]

Oh Billy..................................

 

[Billy_Bob]

NOAA has adjusted up its SST by 0.23 deg C this month. The unisys systems plot shows that the upward adjustment is not justified. This has the effect of pumping up the El nino when it is infact dying..

I wonder why they are doing this? COP21 and that it would be inconvenient to show cooling in two months?

DMI has our current anomaly at just 1.52 deg C which is far below the NOAA reading of 2.13 deg C. DMI has not adjusted their data... Looks like the alarmist crowd is getting real desperate.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Anyone that can't see the massive honking nino needs to do something else with their life.

 

[Old Rocks]

Poor ol' Billy Bob is living in the alternative universe of the 'Conservatives' where all the orange and red is blue. Billy started that nonsense about the El Nino dying in April. And all it has done since then is get stronger. In the meantime, Billy Bob continually posts nonsense about how NASA and NOAA are altering the data. And the West continues to be hotter than ever recorded before, and the East Coast continues to get thousand year rain storms. Billy Bob is really a silly little ass.

 

[jc456]

Big tick up on the daily 3.4

This is smaller than original. Click this bar to view the full image. The original is 768x384.

sorry, but I'm looking at this graph and hmmmmmm, seems that in October there was a swing up and back down. Prior to that, is sort of what ole Billy stated eh?

i dunno, but perhaps you should learn to read the graph correctly. The majority of the line in this index is below +2.0.