Tracking the el nino

[Billy_Bob]

LOL. Now Billy Bob, is that an El Nino, or not? LOL!

Your the ones Stating that the satellites are inaccurate for temperatures.. SO tell me... Are those satellites showing us a real El Nino or are they showing us unreliable data that is wrong?....

Come on Old Fraud.... which is it? You cant have it both ways..

Either the satellites are accurate and there has been no warming for 18 years 7 months or they are inaccurate and the El Ninon is made up due to unreliable data... Come on Old fraud pick your poison..

 

[ScienceRocks]

LOL. Now Billy Bob, is that an El Nino, or not? LOL!

He should demand his money back if he doesn't understand what a nino is...What a joke.

 

[Crick]

Either the satellites are accurate and there has been no warming for 18 years 7 months or they are inaccurate and the El Ninon is made up due to unreliable data... Come on Old fraud pick your poison..

That would be what you call "A FALSE DICHOTOMY". Look it up if you don't want to keep looking like a complete fool.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Well... Confirmation that it has peaked and is now on the way out... And the great stop of upward global trend takes a hit as no warming continues...

 

[Billy_Bob]

Either the satellites are accurate and there has been no warming for 18 years 7 months or they are inaccurate and the El Ninon is made up due to unreliable data... Come on Old fraud pick your poison..

That would be what you call "A FALSE DICHOTOMY". Look it up if you don't want to keep looking like a complete fool.

YOU and your ilk can not have it both ways there fucktard. Nice try at deflection but then again you all do fail frequently.

 

[Crick]

That wasn't deflection. It was an accurate description of your failed attempt to put up a false and worthless defense. We are not faced with a choice between satellite accuracy or hiatus. That is a false dichotomy.

You should have looked it up.

And, BTW, you were wrong about the el Nino. Every single time. Do you STILL have some sort of weather-related job or do they not know about your true opinions on things? BTW, that's a trick question. See if you can get the trick.

 

[jc456]

That wasn't deflection. It was an accurate description of your failed attempt to put up a false and worthless defense. We are not faced with a choice between satellite accuracy or hiatus. That is a false dichotomy.

You should have looked it up.

And, BTW, you were wrong about the el Nino. Every single time. Do you STILL have some sort of weather-related job or do they not know about your true opinions on things? BTW, that's a trick question. See if you can get the trick.

why, need a reference?

 

[Billy_Bob]

That wasn't deflection. It was an accurate description of your failed attempt to put up a false and worthless defense. We are not faced with a choice between satellite accuracy or hiatus. That is a false dichotomy.

You should have looked it up.

And, BTW, you were wrong about the el Nino. Every single time. Do you STILL have some sort of weather-related job or do they not know about your true opinions on things? BTW, that's a trick question. See if you can get the trick.

Awe.... Poor little libtrad is all wee wee'd up... I am secure in my job as many of them share the same sentiments about made up shit from NOAA and NASA. Funny thing is were right, it is all made up.

Funny thing about it all, the earth itself is about to show you fools frauds in a major way.. And there wont be any running from it..

 

[Crick]

About to? When?

I note you didn't say they agree with you about the el Nino. I also note you failed to note the nature of the trick in the trick question.

 

[Billy_Bob]

New studies promote Arctic cooling fears

Northern deep freeze studies seem to be fashionable lately, even Michael Mann had a go earlier this year.

Perhaps giant blocks of ice washing up on American beaches is proving difficult to reconcile with the end of snow narrative. Having said that, there has always been a low profile nod towards the possibility of abrupt cooling, which is of course still all our fault. This apparent effort to keep all the options open is beautifully captured by one of my favourite climategate emails.

Got to love the alarmists that are now hedging their bets... Even Michael Mann is doing it...

 

[Crick]

How is it that Anthony Watts (and by extension, you) can be sufficiently ignorant on this topic to believe that the AMOC and the Gulfstream are one and the same?

Headline from your WUWT link:

Michael Mann and Stefan Rahmstorf claim the Gulf Stream is slowing due to Greenland ice melt, except reality says otherwise

Abstract of Mann & Rahmstorf paper from the same WUWT article:

Abstract

Possible changes in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) provide a key source of uncertainty regarding future climate change. Maps of temperature trends over the twentieth century show a conspicuous region of cooling in the northern Atlantic. Here we present multiple lines of evidence suggesting that this cooling may be due to a reduction in the AMOC over the twentieth century and particularly after 1970. Since 1990 the AMOC seems to have partly recovered. This time evolution is consistently suggested by an AMOC index based on sea surface temperatures, by the hemispheric temperature difference, by coral-based proxies and by oceanic measurements. We discuss a possible contribution of the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet to the slowdown. Using a multi-proxy temperature reconstruction for the AMOC index suggests that the AMOC weakness after 1975 is an unprecedented event in the past millennium (p > 0.99). Further melting of Greenland in the coming decades could contribute to further weakening of the AMOC.

 

[Billy_Bob]

How is it that Anthony Watts (and by extension, you) can be sufficiently ignorant on this topic to believe that the AMOC and the Gulfstream are one and the same?

Headline from your WUWT link:

Michael Mann and Stefan Rahmstorf claim the Gulf Stream is slowing due to Greenland ice melt, except reality says otherwise

Abstract of Mann & Rahmstorf paper from the same WUWT article:

Abstract

Possible changes in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) provide a key source of uncertainty regarding future climate change. Maps of temperature trends over the twentieth century show a conspicuous region of cooling in the northern Atlantic. Here we present multiple lines of evidence suggesting that this cooling may be due to a reduction in the AMOC over the twentieth century and particularly after 1970. Since 1990 the AMOC seems to have partly recovered. This time evolution is consistently suggested by an AMOC index based on sea surface temperatures, by the hemispheric temperature difference, by coral-based proxies and by oceanic measurements. We discuss a possible contribution of the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet to the slowdown. Using a multi-proxy temperature reconstruction for the AMOC index suggests that the AMOC weakness after 1975 is an unprecedented event in the past millennium (p > 0.99). Further melting of Greenland in the coming decades could contribute to further weakening of the AMOC.

And this paper was shown to be....... Wait for it.............











A LIE....


Damn those pesky little facts...

Rossby: Gulf Stream is Not Slowing - Graduate School of Oceanography

Several recent studies have generated a great deal of publicity for their claims that the warming climate is slowing the pace of the Gulf Stream. They say that the Gulf Stream is decreasing in strength as a result of rising sea levels along the East Coast. However, none of the studies includes any direct measurements of the current over an extended period to prove their point.

But this is exactly what has been underway at the University of Rhode Island and Stony Brook University for the last 20 years: measurement of the strength of the Gulf Stream. And according to a paper published in Geophysical Research Letters (subscription required), the researchers find no evidence that the Gulf Stream is slowing down. These new results reinforce earlier findings about the stability of Gulf Stream transport based on observations from as far back as the 1930s.

H. Thomas Rossby, a professor at the URI Graduate School of Oceanography, has spent much of his long career studying ocean circulation – especially the Gulf Stream – and how it makes its way across the Atlantic towards Europe and as far north as northern Norway. For the last 20 years he and his colleagues have measured the Gulf Stream using an acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) attached to a ship, the freighter Oleander, which makes weekly trips across the Gulf Stream from New Jersey to Bermuda. The instrument, which measures the velocity of water moving beneath the ship down to more than 600 meters, has collected some 1,000 measurements of the Gulf Stream since it was installed in late 1992.

Old Mikey Mann fraud is caught lying outright, AGAIN!

Crick needs to read the articles in context and then read through the comments.. You might learn a lot about how your trying to mislead people with your crap!

 

[flacaltenn]

How is it that Anthony Watts (and by extension, you) can be sufficiently ignorant on this topic to believe that the AMOC and the Gulfstream are one and the same?

Headline from your WUWT link:

Michael Mann and Stefan Rahmstorf claim the Gulf Stream is slowing due to Greenland ice melt, except reality says otherwise

Abstract of Mann & Rahmstorf paper from the same WUWT article:

Abstract

Possible changes in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) provide a key source of uncertainty regarding future climate change. Maps of temperature trends over the twentieth century show a conspicuous region of cooling in the northern Atlantic. Here we present multiple lines of evidence suggesting that this cooling may be due to a reduction in the AMOC over the twentieth century and particularly after 1970. Since 1990 the AMOC seems to have partly recovered. This time evolution is consistently suggested by an AMOC index based on sea surface temperatures, by the hemispheric temperature difference, by coral-based proxies and by oceanic measurements. We discuss a possible contribution of the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet to the slowdown. Using a multi-proxy temperature reconstruction for the AMOC index suggests that the AMOC weakness after 1975 is an unprecedented event in the past millennium (p > 0.99). Further melting of Greenland in the coming decades could contribute to further weakening of the AMOC.

And this paper was shown to be....... Wait for it.............











A LIE....


Damn those pesky little facts...

Rossby: Gulf Stream is Not Slowing - Graduate School of Oceanography

Several recent studies have generated a great deal of publicity for their claims that the warming climate is slowing the pace of the Gulf Stream. They say that the Gulf Stream is decreasing in strength as a result of rising sea levels along the East Coast. However, none of the studies includes any direct measurements of the current over an extended period to prove their point.

But this is exactly what has been underway at the University of Rhode Island and Stony Brook University for the last 20 years: measurement of the strength of the Gulf Stream. And according to a paper published in Geophysical Research Letters (subscription required), the researchers find no evidence that the Gulf Stream is slowing down. These new results reinforce earlier findings about the stability of Gulf Stream transport based on observations from as far back as the 1930s.

H. Thomas Rossby, a professor at the URI Graduate School of Oceanography, has spent much of his long career studying ocean circulation – especially the Gulf Stream – and how it makes its way across the Atlantic towards Europe and as far north as northern Norway. For the last 20 years he and his colleagues have measured the Gulf Stream using an acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) attached to a ship, the freighter Oleander, which makes weekly trips across the Gulf Stream from New Jersey to Bermuda. The instrument, which measures the velocity of water moving beneath the ship down to more than 600 meters, has collected some 1,000 measurements of the Gulf Stream since it was installed in late 1992.

Old Mikey Mann fraud is caught lying outright, AGAIN!

Crick needs to read the articles in context and then read through the comments.. You might learn a lot about how your trying to mislead people with your crap!

Those 2 dueling arguments show you how little data and understanding we have of the fundamental climate mechanisms. One study uses "coral proxies" to look for theorized effects of GW and LEAPS to conclusions not in evidence. The other is bolstered ACTUAL WEEKLY measurements of the Gulf Stream to see IF it's changing.

And that's just one group burning a lot of heavy oil to take that freighter out week after week.. Must be sponsored by Shell Oil eh???

 

[flacaltenn]

Was just checking the thread to see if BillyBob was down to wagering his alligator belt on this El Nino thingy..

Let me know when to come and pick up what's left of him....

 

[Billy_Bob]

Was just checking the thread to see if BillyBob was down to wagering his alligator belt on this El Nino thingy..

Let me know when to come and pick up what's left of him....

Nope... no need to wager anything.. region one has been very cold for over two months now.. There is no new heat entering the stream so this will die now. I also see that they adjusted DOWN the previous months numbers again... I wonder why they did that?


And by the way.... When mama tells me to haul ass its multiple trips!

 

[Billy_Bob]

How is it that Anthony Watts (and by extension, you) can be sufficiently ignorant on this topic to believe that the AMOC and the Gulfstream are one and the same?

Headline from your WUWT link:

Michael Mann and Stefan Rahmstorf claim the Gulf Stream is slowing due to Greenland ice melt, except reality says otherwise

Abstract of Mann & Rahmstorf paper from the same WUWT article:

Abstract

Possible changes in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) provide a key source of uncertainty regarding future climate change. Maps of temperature trends over the twentieth century show a conspicuous region of cooling in the northern Atlantic. Here we present multiple lines of evidence suggesting that this cooling may be due to a reduction in the AMOC over the twentieth century and particularly after 1970. Since 1990 the AMOC seems to have partly recovered. This time evolution is consistently suggested by an AMOC index based on sea surface temperatures, by the hemispheric temperature difference, by coral-based proxies and by oceanic measurements. We discuss a possible contribution of the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet to the slowdown. Using a multi-proxy temperature reconstruction for the AMOC index suggests that the AMOC weakness after 1975 is an unprecedented event in the past millennium (p > 0.99). Further melting of Greenland in the coming decades could contribute to further weakening of the AMOC.

And this paper was shown to be....... Wait for it.............











A LIE....


Damn those pesky little facts...

Rossby: Gulf Stream is Not Slowing - Graduate School of Oceanography

Several recent studies have generated a great deal of publicity for their claims that the warming climate is slowing the pace of the Gulf Stream. They say that the Gulf Stream is decreasing in strength as a result of rising sea levels along the East Coast. However, none of the studies includes any direct measurements of the current over an extended period to prove their point.

But this is exactly what has been underway at the University of Rhode Island and Stony Brook University for the last 20 years: measurement of the strength of the Gulf Stream. And according to a paper published in Geophysical Research Letters (subscription required), the researchers find no evidence that the Gulf Stream is slowing down. These new results reinforce earlier findings about the stability of Gulf Stream transport based on observations from as far back as the 1930s.

H. Thomas Rossby, a professor at the URI Graduate School of Oceanography, has spent much of his long career studying ocean circulation – especially the Gulf Stream – and how it makes its way across the Atlantic towards Europe and as far north as northern Norway. For the last 20 years he and his colleagues have measured the Gulf Stream using an acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) attached to a ship, the freighter Oleander, which makes weekly trips across the Gulf Stream from New Jersey to Bermuda. The instrument, which measures the velocity of water moving beneath the ship down to more than 600 meters, has collected some 1,000 measurements of the Gulf Stream since it was installed in late 1992.

Old Mikey Mann fraud is caught lying outright, AGAIN!

Crick needs to read the articles in context and then read through the comments.. You might learn a lot about how your trying to mislead people with your crap!

Those 2 dueling arguments show you how little data and understanding we have of the fundamental climate mechanisms. One study uses "coral proxies" to look for theorized effects of GW and LEAPS to conclusions not in evidence. The other is bolstered ACTUAL WEEKLY measurements of the Gulf Stream to see IF it's changing.

And that's just one group burning a lot of heavy oil to take that freighter out week after week.. Must be sponsored by Shell Oil eh???

I rather like the direct measurement route... those dam models fail and sitting at a desk will make you fat! Its to damn easy to fall into fantasy land... just look around we have a whole bunch there already..

 

[ScienceRocks]

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 4h4 hours ago

#ElNino is well on its way to being one of the strongest in modern times- Top 3 increasingly likely to me #climate

 

[Billy_Bob]

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 4h4 hours ago

#ElNino is well on its way to being one of the strongest in modern times- Top 3 increasingly likely to me #climate

A... Nope! falling apart... Even the blob has lost 1 deg C in the last two weeks..

 

[Crick]

Billy, you've been predicting this el Nino would fall apart for months now. It has only grown stronger. Where do you get the delusion that you know what the fuck you're talking about? Reality certainly doesn't support it.

Now, for the opinion of the folks who actually know what they're talking about. Emphases mine.


EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 September 2015

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory



Synopsis: There is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016.

During August, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were near or greater than +2.0oC across the eastern half of the tropical Pacific (Fig. 1). SST anomalies increased in the Niño-3.4 and Niño 3-regions, were approximately unchanged in the Niño-4 region, and decreased in the Niño-1+2 region (Fig. 2). Large positive subsurface temperature anomalies persisted in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific during the month (Fig. 3), with the largest departures exceeding 6oC (Fig. 4). The atmosphere remained coupled to the anomalous oceanic warmth, with significant low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies persisting from the western to east-central tropical Pacific. Also, the traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) were again negative, consistent with enhanced convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic anomalies reflect a strong El Niño.

All models surveyed predict El Niño to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2016, and all multi-model averages predict a peak in late fall/early winter (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index of +1.5oC or greater; Fig. 6). The forecaster consensus unanimously favors a strong El Niño, with peak 3-month SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region near or exceeding +2.0oC. Overall, there is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

Across the contiguous United States, temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Niño are expected to remain minimal during the early Northern Hemisphere fall and increase into the late fall and winter (the 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday September 17th). El Niño will likely contribute to a below normal Atlantic hurricane season, and to above-normal hurricane seasons in both the central and eastern Pacific hurricane basins (click Hurricane season outlook for more).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in theForecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8 October 2015. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: [email protected].


Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
College Park, MD 20740

I'm not sure, Billy Boy, I've ever met someone with such unassailable expertise at making themselves look a fool.

 

[jc456]

Again I believe you're confused. Billy made no prediction. He has supplied supporting material and status.