konkon
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- Mar 4, 2011
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- #21
Some modifications to the original post. China's ambitions over the next two decades and beyond are a concern for me. If it seeks to take control of world wide geopolitics, it won't do it like the US does. China would not oversee all geopolitical regions and potential dangerous gaps may exist; even more of a reason to continue to support and reinforce US/allies agendas.
When you beat the grass, the snakes will come out. Over the past few months it has become clearer, to me, that several nations might want to stick their necks out and look at future geopolitical zones that they might be able to have some influence over. China and its desire to strengthen its military has its sights on (perhaps most geopolitical areas in two decades, and beyond) south-east Asia. It may form a strategic alliance with Burma, but not with Vietnam. Even more of a reason for countries like Thailand, the Philippines and perhaps Vietnam to form a greater alliance with the US and its allies. Vietnam is a tricky one and China and the US will probably seek its support. Luckily, no Vietnam war revisited though.
Stock markets will become even more volatile with next generation algorithmic computer trades taking markets in all kinds of directions, more frequently, and with greater momentum. Added to this the greater world-wide participation of investors with short term trading mandates.
This will add another complex dynamic to short-term heavy volume trading. On the issue of corrections, there will be more and more; a higher than normal historical average and for many reasons.
The European Union may no longer exist, or may no longer exist in the same format, for some time. An EU mark II is on the cards, but with a different focus and with initially stricter guidelines by its fellow members.
China will probably use Hong Kong as its financial hub and China will continue to try and direct business within its control. Buying harder assets around the world is still an important strategy for the Chinese. But trying to gain control of financial markets won't work. Using Hong Kong as a strategic (English Speaking) financial hub is a good strategy though.
But with greater sophistication, volume and frequency.
Indeed. Hopefully, we're keeping an eye on China's slightly more aggressive stance on geopolitics in recent months. I'm sure many countries in South East Asia are doing the same.
No change in opinion, but more could be said. Some other time.
A whole lot can be said about China and the way it will continue to affect the west's inability to find its economic footing in periods of economic distress; and there will be many periods like this.
Not sure a competing reserve currency will take-off at all. The Federal Reserve in the US will make sure it doesn't, as long as Bernanke has his way. But Congress is, in an indirect (and unintentional) way, adding pressure for the USD to lose its reserve status. Sorry, but congress is a real problem for the US, as ironic as this sounds. At the moment, I'm convinced Bernanke wants the USD to remain the world's reserve currency. But he has lots of opposition. He won't be the Fed Chairman by 2030, obviously, so hopefully the next Chairman has the same agenda and ethos.
One of the reasons why we're in the current mess is that the world has stopped creating and innovating. Globalization and the transfer of jobs to places like China, has meant that the middle classes have lost their competitive edge.
Let's just hope that wars don't break out because some country went after some other countries harder assets, predominately because debt agreements weren't honored.
China will be catching up at a rapid pace though, and recent publicized articles by the Pentagon have suggested this. Don't know about you, but this is a concern for me.
Yes, and what to do with all this debt!
Major countries that are not strongly allied with the US: China, Pakistan, Russia. Iran...Careful attention was placed on allies and non-allies as this gives some sort of a blueprint as to what a major war might look like if there is a major conflict between large competing nations.
When you beat the grass, the snakes will come out. Over the past few months it has become clearer, to me, that several nations might want to stick their necks out and look at future geopolitical zones that they might be able to have some influence over. China and its desire to strengthen its military has its sights on (perhaps most geopolitical areas in two decades, and beyond) south-east Asia. It may form a strategic alliance with Burma, but not with Vietnam. Even more of a reason for countries like Thailand, the Philippines and perhaps Vietnam to form a greater alliance with the US and its allies. Vietnam is a tricky one and China and the US will probably seek its support. Luckily, no Vietnam war revisited though.
The US is still in control-mode and has survived several stock market crashes and recessions. The norm has become to not pay a huge part of ones perpetual debt and this goes for many individuals, companies as well as countries...
Stock markets will become even more volatile with next generation algorithmic computer trades taking markets in all kinds of directions, more frequently, and with greater momentum. Added to this the greater world-wide participation of investors with short term trading mandates.
One world-wide correction resulted...by the development and implementation of quantum computing and its ability to in an instant decrypt, through even brute-force, classical computing encryptions. So financial companies, governments, internet etc had to reinvest heavily and reinvent themselves, which was costly...
This will add another complex dynamic to short-term heavy volume trading. On the issue of corrections, there will be more and more; a higher than normal historical average and for many reasons.
Europe (overall) is even more heavily in debt and is going nowhere really...
The European Union may no longer exist, or may no longer exist in the same format, for some time. An EU mark II is on the cards, but with a different focus and with initially stricter guidelines by its fellow members.
China has the world's largest economy but does not control the electronic markets; this (most of the asset classes around the world) is still under the US's control...
China will probably use Hong Kong as its financial hub and China will continue to try and direct business within its control. Buying harder assets around the world is still an important strategy for the Chinese. But trying to gain control of financial markets won't work. Using Hong Kong as a strategic (English Speaking) financial hub is a good strategy though.
Collusion and market fixing is still part of the game...
But with greater sophistication, volume and frequency.
Countries like Australia may have to militarize and further protect its borders and protect non-urban regions for fear of a possible invasion by hostile and desperate nations that need its expensive and rare resources; A long shot, but still a concern even in the next 50+ years. It will become an even bigger ally of the US.
Indeed. Hopefully, we're keeping an eye on China's slightly more aggressive stance on geopolitics in recent months. I'm sure many countries in South East Asia are doing the same.
A strong alliance will continue between the US, UK, Germany, France, Italy (Europe in general), Canada, Australia, Japan, Israel, Saudi Arabia (as long as we keep buying oil off of them), Thailand, parts of the old Soviet Union (too many to mention) etc...It's quite possible that China will not have strong ties with the US, but will remain a trading partner of course (with all countries; not much will change here). Russia will play all sides but will side with its strong (not popular in the west) trading partners. Iran is going to be a problem over the next decade, and if Glen Beck is correct, a real problem for Israel and parts of the west.
No change in opinion, but more could be said. Some other time.
China has a real problem; the demographics are skewered and do not favour an even +4% growth anymore (yes, no longer 10%). Their cities have long become the most expensive in the world (and so have many of their products!) and there still is a problem of the ultra-rich and the mega poor, and a demographic youth that has to support a growing aged population. The west still finds it hard to do business there, and there is growing unrest by a restricted and controlled people. The west may at times latently manipulate this to their advantage. Taiwan will continue to be a strategic trading partner to the west and a strong ally.
A whole lot can be said about China and the way it will continue to affect the west's inability to find its economic footing in periods of economic distress; and there will be many periods like this.
Another competing reserve currency failed to dethrown the USD, as it was initially used, accepted but ended up being manipulated on the exchange markets by the US and their highly sophisticated trading computer networks, which still controls the markets.
Not sure a competing reserve currency will take-off at all. The Federal Reserve in the US will make sure it doesn't, as long as Bernanke has his way. But Congress is, in an indirect (and unintentional) way, adding pressure for the USD to lose its reserve status. Sorry, but congress is a real problem for the US, as ironic as this sounds. At the moment, I'm convinced Bernanke wants the USD to remain the world's reserve currency. But he has lots of opposition. He won't be the Fed Chairman by 2030, obviously, so hopefully the next Chairman has the same agenda and ethos.
Wealth will still be made from lack of supply and high demand for space/land, housing, soft and hard commodities etc and not necessarily form innovative developments and innovations. So dont expect the world to look too dissimilar to what it does today; just more populated and more expensive. A real let-down if you ask me.
One of the reasons why we're in the current mess is that the world has stopped creating and innovating. Globalization and the transfer of jobs to places like China, has meant that the middle classes have lost their competitive edge.
One of the biggest problems that countries have is an overburdening perpetuating debt crisis. Many, including the US, have no choice but to restructure their economies and even currencies. And yes, the finger was shown to countries holding and demanding payment on (unpayable) debt, more than once.
Let's just hope that wars don't break out because some country went after some other countries harder assets, predominately because debt agreements weren't honored.
The United States has the most sophisticated military by far, and has opened up its doors to next generation defence and avionics (out of this world!) technologies, to some extent or to the extent they permit!
China will be catching up at a rapid pace though, and recent publicized articles by the Pentagon have suggested this. Don't know about you, but this is a concern for me.
Two of the biggest risks are overpopulation and perpetual debt; no real surprises here...
Yes, and what to do with all this debt!