‘Envy of the World’—U.S. Economy Expected to Keep Powering Higher

[Magnus]

It has been two years since forecasters felt this good about the economic outlook.

In the latest quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal, business and academic economists lowered the chances of a recession within the next year to 29% from 39% in the January survey. That was the lowest probability since April 2022, when the chances of a recession were set at 28%.

Economists, in fact, don’t think the economy will get even close to a recession. In January, they on average forecast sub-1% growth in each of the first three quarters of this year. Now, they expect growth to bottom out this year at an inflation-adjusted 1.4% in the third quarter.
Just 10% of survey respondents think the economy will experience at least one quarter of negative growth over the next 12 months, down from 33% in January.

“The U.S. economy is performing very well,” EconForecaster economist James Smith said in the survey. “We’re truly the envy of the world.”

https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/economy-forecast-lower-recession-chances-1f24174b?mod=hp_lead_pos6

---

The U.S. economy has outpaced the growth of other G7 countries since the pandemic, with GDP growing 7.4% since Q4 2019 compared to 0.3%-4% growth for countries like Germany, France, and the UK. We remain a global powerhouse. You Go Biden!!!

 

[Mashmont]

It has been two years since forecasters felt this good about the economic outlook.

In the latest quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal, business and academic economists lowered the chances of a recession within the next year to 29% from 39% in the January survey. That was the lowest probability since April 2022, when the chances of a recession were set at 28%.

Economists, in fact, don’t think the economy will get even close to a recession. In January, they on average forecast sub-1% growth in each of the first three quarters of this year. Now, they expect growth to bottom out this year at an inflation-adjusted 1.4% in the third quarter.
Just 10% of survey respondents think the economy will experience at least one quarter of negative growth over the next 12 months, down from 33% in January.

“The U.S. economy is performing very well,” EconForecaster economist James Smith said in the survey. “We’re truly the envy of the world.”

https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/economy-forecast-lower-recession-chances-1f24174b?mod=hp_lead_pos6

---

The U.S. economy has outpaced the growth of other G7 countries since the pandemic, with GDP growing 7.4% since Q4 2019 compared to 0.3%-4% growth for countries like Germany, France, and the UK. We remain a global powerhouse. You Go Biden!!!

Marxist leftwing media: "Believe us and not your lying eyes."

Inflation is rising again. That's a very troublesome sign. Horrible mismanagement. Way too much spending. The Alzheimer's patient's handlers are intentionally wrecking the economy, and this is only the beginning.

 

[Oddball]

 

[Donald H]

It's an economy with its hands tied behind its back, militarily.

Circumstances aren't allowing America's military might to defeat a nuclear armed gas station.

 

[Stryder50]

As always, the Debbel is in the Details;
Part I *

Millions of New Illegal Immigrants Mask True State of US Economy​

‘That’s a big problem. What we’re interested in is how the economy is working for American citizens,’ says an economist.​

Select excerpts:
...
Economists are expressing concern over the increasing number of illegal immigrants in the United States, who they have said are obscuring the actual condition of the jobs market and the U.S. economy.

For the past few years, the headline employment figure has been impressive. The country has recovered the lost jobs from the government-imposed shutdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic and added a few million more, despite a climate of high inflation and rising interest rates.

In 2023, the economy added approximately 3 million new positions. To kick off 2024, more than 800,000 new jobs have been added.

The labor market data are critical, as they help determine the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.
...
However, a closer look at the household survey of the employment report reveals a more gloomy picture. Employment for native-born Americans has been in decline over the past four years. This means that all of the job gains have gone to foreign-born workers, including both legal and illegal immigrants.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the number of immigrants—legal and illegal—working in the United States grew by 3.4 million between February 2020, shortly before the onset of COVID-19, and March 2024. The number of U.S.-born workers, however, declined by 78,000 during the same period.

In addition, during the Biden administration, there have been approximately twice as many illegal immigrants as legal immigrants entering the country, according to a study by the Brookings Institution.
“That’s a big problem,” economist Stephen Moore said.

“What we’re interested in is how the economy is working for American citizens. So, we’re distorting the jobs market with all of the illegal immigrants,” he told The Epoch Times.

Mr. Moore, who served as an economic adviser to President Donald Trump, criticized the Biden administration for turning the U.S. immigration system “upside down.”

He argued that the U.S. economy “desperately needs” more legal immigrants, who possess high skill levels or special talents, rather than illegal immigrants, who tend to be less educated.
...

Millions of New Illegal Immigrants Mask True State of US Economy

‘That’s a big problem. What we’re interested in is how the economy is working for American citizens,’ says an economist.

www.theepochtimes.com

Note that underlines blue type are embedded links to other articles/reports.
* - this is a very lengthy article and so I'm breaking it out into portions.

 

[1srelluc]

LOL.....Just wait till the dow opens tomorrow.....Futures are down 500+ points.

 

[Libby von H]

It has been two years since forecasters felt this good about the economic outlook.

In the latest quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal, business and academic economists lowered the chances of a recession within the next year to 29% from 39% in the January survey. That was the lowest probability since April 2022, when the chances of a recession were set at 28%.

Economists, in fact, don’t think the economy will get even close to a recession. In January, they on average forecast sub-1% growth in each of the first three quarters of this year. Now, they expect growth to bottom out this year at an inflation-adjusted 1.4% in the third quarter.
Just 10% of survey respondents think the economy will experience at least one quarter of negative growth over the next 12 months, down from 33% in January.

“The U.S. economy is performing very well,” EconForecaster economist James Smith said in the survey. “We’re truly the envy of the world.”

https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/economy-forecast-lower-recession-chances-1f24174b?mod=hp_lead_pos6

---

The U.S. economy has outpaced the growth of other G7 countries since the pandemic, with GDP growing 7.4% since Q4 2019 compared to 0.3%-4% growth for countries like Germany, France, and the UK. We remain a global powerhouse. You Go Biden!!!

NOT WITH ECONOMISTS

According to Citi, the US economy is likely to enter a recession in the middle of 2024, with an 85% chance of happening, the highest since the Great Financial Crisis. Some data suggests that the economy is already showing signs of decline, including:

• Credit-card delinquency rates are rising
• Retail sales data has shown a drop
• The unemployment rate could rise to around 4.8% by the end of 2024
  
  

 

[Stryder50]

Part II *

Millions of New Illegal Immigrants Mask True State of US Economy​

‘That’s a big problem. What we’re interested in is how the economy is working for American citizens,’ says an economist.​

....

‘Very Troubling’​

The BLS includes illegal immigrants in the labor statistics, identifying them as “undocumented workers.” However, the agency doesn’t disclose the data publicly and instead groups legal and illegal immigrant job data together.

Many economists have been surprised by the growing employment gap between native- and foreign-born workers since October 2019.

The contrast in the past year is even more striking. According to the BLS, native-born employment fell by 651,000 in March 2024 from the same period last year, while foreign-born employment climbed by nearly 1.3 million.

According to Steven Camarota, director of research for the Center for Immigration Studies, it is hard to know the exact number of illegal immigrants who have recently entered the country and found employment.

However, he estimates roughly half of the job gains among foreign-born workers have gone to illegal immigrants over the past year.

Mr. Camarota notes that the government should know all economic activity and job creation in the United States, so counting illegal immigrants is not a problem.

“What I do think is problematic is that you can see a low unemployment rate and more importantly, lots of job growth, but almost all the job growth is going to the immigrants. That’s the distortion,” he told The Epoch Times.

There were a total of 31 million immigrant workers as of March 2024, constituting nearly 20 percent of the U.S. labor force. Mr. Camarota estimates that at the beginning of this year, roughly 9 million of these workers were illegally present.
...
Hence, Mr. Camarota argued that the government is missing the overall picture by focusing on headline data and reporting strong job growth, and not saying it’s fueled primarily by low-wage illegal immigrants.

“That’s very troubling,” he said.

Another issue with more illegal immigration is that it drives down wages for American workers.

According to E.J. Antoni, an economist and research fellow at The Heritage Foundation, President Joe Biden is polling so poorly among voters partly “because they are not the ones getting the jobs.”

As a result of the flood of cheap labor, American workers also earn less than they would otherwise, he told The Epoch Times.
...
Many economists have been perplexed by the strong employment growth in recent years. They have said that the labor market was far too tight and needed to ease dramatically to control inflation. Many have overlooked the effects of illegal immigration.
The study by the Brookings Institution concludes that strong job growth is aligned with large immigration flows and this is why current employment growth is not putting upward pressure on wages and price inflation. In other words, since the majority of positions are filled by illegal immigrants earning low wages, the effect on inflation is small.

“The unexpectedly high level of immigration also explains some of the surprising strength in consumer spending and overall economic growth since 2022,” the study report reads.

According to its rough estimates, the rise in immigration boosted real consumer spending growth by 0.1 percentage points in 2022, 0.2 percentage points in 2023, and an expected 0.2 percentage points in 2024. In addition, the increase in immigration boosted real gross domestic product (GDP) growth by 0.1 percentage points annually, the study found.

Illegal immigrants boost GDP because more people are in the labor force, which is one of the key inputs of the economy.
...
However, a larger economy does not necessarily imply a better economy and more wealth for the existing population, he argued. Immigration reduces per-person GDP by causing the population to grow faster than the economy, according to Mr. Camarota.

Many economists have said that illegal immigrants differ from legal immigrants in that they tend to exert downward pressure on wages and economic productivity in the short term.
...

Millions of New Illegal Immigrants Mask True State of US Economy

‘That’s a big problem. What we’re interested in is how the economy is working for American citizens,’ says an economist.

www.theepochtimes.com

Note that underlines blue type are embedded links to other articles/reports.
* - this is a very lengthy article and so I'm breaking it out into portions.

 

[Magnus]

As always, the Debbel is in the Details;
Part I *

Millions of New Illegal Immigrants Mask True State of US Economy​

‘That’s a big problem. What we’re interested in is how the economy is working for American citizens,’ says an economist.​

Select excerpts:
...
Economists are expressing concern over the increasing number of illegal immigrants in the United States, who they have said are obscuring the actual condition of the jobs market and the U.S. economy.

For the past few years, the headline employment figure has been impressive. The country has recovered the lost jobs from the government-imposed shutdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic and added a few million more, despite a climate of high inflation and rising interest rates.

In 2023, the economy added approximately 3 million new positions. To kick off 2024, more than 800,000 new jobs have been added.

The labor market data are critical, as they help determine the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.
...
However, a closer look at the household survey of the employment report reveals a more gloomy picture. Employment for native-born Americans has been in decline over the past four years. This means that all of the job gains have gone to foreign-born workers, including both legal and illegal immigrants.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the number of immigrants—legal and illegal—working in the United States grew by 3.4 million between February 2020, shortly before the onset of COVID-19, and March 2024. The number of U.S.-born workers, however, declined by 78,000 during the same period.

In addition, during the Biden administration, there have been approximately twice as many illegal immigrants as legal immigrants entering the country, according to a study by the Brookings Institution.
“That’s a big problem,” economist Stephen Moore said.

“What we’re interested in is how the economy is working for American citizens. So, we’re distorting the jobs market with all of the illegal immigrants,” he told The Epoch Times.

Mr. Moore, who served as an economic adviser to President Donald Trump, criticized the Biden administration for turning the U.S. immigration system “upside down.”

He argued that the U.S. economy “desperately needs” more legal immigrants, who possess high skill levels or special talents, rather than illegal immigrants, who tend to be less educated.
...

Millions of New Illegal Immigrants Mask True State of US Economy

‘That’s a big problem. What we’re interested in is how the economy is working for American citizens,’ says an economist.

www.theepochtimes.com

Note that underlines blue type are embedded links to other articles/reports.
* - this si a very lengthy article and so I'm breaking it out into portions.

I posted a Wall Street Journal article and. Business Insider link -both far from liberal -and you respond with Epoch Times?

The Epoch Times is a far-right[1] international multi-language newspaper and media company affiliated with the Falun Gongnew religious movement.[29]

 

[Magnus]

NOT WITH ECONOMISTS

According to Citi, the US economy is likely to enter a recession in the middle of 2024, with an 85% chance of happening, the highest since the Great Financial Crisis. Some data suggests that the economy is already showing signs of decline, including:

• Credit-card delinquency rates are rising
• Retail sales data has shown a drop
• The unemployment rate could rise to around 4.8% by the end of 2024
  

Links?

 

[Oddball]

LOL.....Just wait till the dow opens tomorrow.....Futures are down 500+ points.

Silver off nearly .52....Going to be a big correction tomorrow.

 

[1srelluc]

Silver off nearly .52....Going to be a big correction tomorrow.

They are still worried about the banks.....Looks like Chase is going to be hit hard due to weaker than expected earnings.

 

[Stryder50]

I posted a Wall Street Journal article and. Business Insider link -both far from liberal -and you respond with Epoch Times?

The Epoch Times is a far-right[1] international multi-language newspaper and media company affiliated with the Falun Gongnew religious movement.[29]

Well Komrade, "liberal" tends to have subjective interpretation and application this board, as does "far from". "Liberal" isn't as far from center as Leftist, and as members of the MSM they do show Left leanings. Both your sources would have reason to downplay the impact of illegal alien impact on the USA economy for the obvious reasons shown in the Epoch Times article.

Falun Gong is more a philosophical than religious since their are no Deities affiliated.
It is also opposed to and suppressed by CCP China, but I guess you are all for religious, philosophical, and ideological suppression of those that oppose your Marxist view.

BTW, Wiki is far from an objective source as well, so like you others, a grain or two of salt suggested;

The Epoch Times - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[luiza]

Wonder what Fake News sources the OP uses apart from the Deep State owned WSJ

Still , he will not have long to wait now before getting the biggest shock of his life .

 

[Stryder50]

Part III *

Millions of New Illegal Immigrants Mask True State of US Economy​

‘That’s a big problem. What we’re interested in is how the economy is working for American citizens,’ says an economist.​

...
However, economists and market analysts have noticed a trend for the past year: Sizable downward revisions to the monthly BLS data have been quietly made after the initial release of data.

For example, the BLS reported on Feb. 13 that the U.S. economy added 353,000 jobs in January, much better than expected. On April 5, however, the agency said that the January data had been revised downward by 97,000 to 256,000.

This was ubiquitous throughout 2023, too. The agency’s downward revisions, which have occurred in 12 of the previous 14 months, have totaled nearly 585,000 jobs.
...
The agency reports that its “field economists” collect data from survey respondents through a variety of methods, including personal visits, mail, telephone, email, and video calls.
Mr. Moore said that there will be mistakes in the data collection, “but you expect those errors to be random.”

“But they haven’t been random. They’ve all been in the same direction,” Mr. Moore said. “I don’t think there’s anything sinister. I don’t think they’re trying to manipulate the data. There’s something wrong with the way they’re measuring job growth. We have a lot of multiple jobholders now, and they count those.”
...
According to the latest figures, approximately 8.4 million people are working two or more jobs.

Economists also note the rising disparity between the two surveys. Each month, the BLS conducts two surveys: the “establishment survey,” which provides payroll statistics, and the “household survey,” which calculates the unemployment rate. The former includes every job that a person holds, while the latter avoids duplication in the statistics.

There have been several months since the beginning of 2022 when the disparity between the two surveys was significant. In fact, since January 2022, the establishment survey reports 8.1 million jobs generated, compared with 4.4 million in the household survey. Hence, some analysts argue that the household survey tends to give a more accurate picture of the job market’s health.

In February, for example, the establishment portion of the jobs report highlighted 275,000 new jobs. However, the household part revealed that the economy had lost 184,000 jobs.
...
If the revisions are happening regularly for a prolonged period, it might be time to make some changes in the data collection process, according to Mr. Antoni.

“It’s clearly indicative that something is wrong with the methodology at the Bureau of Labor Statistics now; exactly what that is remains to be seen,” he said.

Mr. Antoni likened the current situation to 2008, when basic economic conditions were deteriorating so fast “that it was difficult for the BLS to keep up with those changing conditions.”
...

Millions of New Illegal Immigrants Mask True State of US Economy

‘That’s a big problem. What we’re interested in is how the economy is working for American citizens,’ says an economist.

www.theepochtimes.com

Note that underlines blue type are embedded links to other articles/reports.
* - this is a very lengthy article and so I'm breaking it out into portions.

 

[The Irish Ram]

We are trillions of dollars in debt. What's not to love?

 

[Stryder50]

It has been two years since forecasters felt this good about the economic outlook.

In the latest quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal, business and academic economists lowered the chances of a recession within the next year to 29% from 39% in the January survey. That was the lowest probability since April 2022, when the chances of a recession were set at 28%.

Economists, in fact, don’t think the economy will get even close to a recession. In January, they on average forecast sub-1% growth in each of the first three quarters of this year. Now, they expect growth to bottom out this year at an inflation-adjusted 1.4% in the third quarter.
Just 10% of survey respondents think the economy will experience at least one quarter of negative growth over the next 12 months, down from 33% in January.

“The U.S. economy is performing very well,” EconForecaster economist James Smith said in the survey. “We’re truly the envy of the world.”

https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/economy-forecast-lower-recession-chances-1f24174b?mod=hp_lead_pos6

---

The U.S. economy has outpaced the growth of other G7 countries since the pandemic, with GDP growing 7.4% since Q4 2019 compared to 0.3%-4% growth for countries like Germany, France, and the UK. We remain a global powerhouse. You Go Biden!!!

GDP is separate from inflation.
FWIW inflation can give the false impression of GDP growth.
GDP is not a measure of rise or lower in costs of living and wages matching, or not.

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

Marxist leftwing media: "Believe us and not your lying eyes."

Inflation is rising again. That's a very troublesome sign. Horrible mismanagement. Way too much spending. The Alzheimer's patient's handlers are intentionally wrecking the economy, and this is only the beginning.

Republicans will of course continue to lie about the economy being ‘bad.’

 

[Stryder50]

We are trillions of dollars in debt. What's not to love?

$34.65 trillion and rising rapidly.
Better stockpile food, seeds, and ammo.

 

[Stryder50]

Republicans will of course continue to lie about the economy being ‘bad.’

Well Komrade;
No where near as much as Marxist-Leftist-DemocRATs will lie about it being 'good'.