The World in 2030

Discussion in 'Economy' started by konkon, Apr 4, 2011.

  1. konkon
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    konkon Member

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    Here's what I think the world's economy will, to some extent, look like:

    Major countries that are not strongly allied with the US: China, Pakistan, Russia. Iran was luckily softened up with social media sites long ago and their government was overthrown. Careful attention was placed on allies and non-allies as this gives some sort of a blueprint as to what a major war might look like if there is a major conflict between large competing nations.

    The world has become more alike. Emerging countries have a net loss of their traditional and established way of life and a net gain of western ideals and debt.

    The US is still in control-mode and has survived several stock market crashes and recessions. The norm has become to not pay a huge part of one’s perpetual debt and this goes for many individuals, companies as well as countries. In fact, the concept of ‘debt’ has been redefined to accommodate these sorts of lending practices. People ‘now’ (in the future!) see this as a normal practice and don't really question this.

    One world-wide correction resulted, not from debt or the hand of the Federal Reserve, but by the development and implementation of quantum computing and its ability to in an instant decrypt, through even brute-force, classical computing encryptions. So financial companies, governments, internet etc had to reinvest heavily and reinvent themselves, which was costly. There was another mini tech boom too as next generation computing was born. But no terminators, yet!

    Europe (overall) is even more heavily in debt and is going nowhere really. The ECB is just a big bank. England and Germany are the two stand-outs and have a major say in the control of world markets. Germany (becomes a stronger US ally) is more committed to market control with the US and continues to control the next generation, thinking, algorithmic trading computers, that are processing nearly all trades in different world-wide markets.

    The middle east is still in turmoil. It had promising periods, but newly formed governments helped along by the west ended up doing a 180 degree turn; nothing new here.

    Deliberate control and manipulation of patented next generation automotive technologies has stifled the transition from combustion engines, hydrocarbon fuels etc to next generation cleaner fuels and electric vehicles. This along with other stubborn and unyielding practices has caused shortages of commodities and traditional (hydrocarbon) forms of energy.

    China has the world's largest economy but does not control the electronic markets; this (most of the asset classes around the world) is still under the US's control and the US along with Germany and England control the majority of sophisticated, intelligent, algorithmic computer trades, that control the direction of all asset classes and markets, even if it’s just indirectly.

    Many of these exchanges are cloud-exchanges which makes it even harder to regulate and even locate. Collusion and market fixing is still part of the game, and those in the loop will have these sophisticated networked programs collectively fixing positions in all kinds of markets. Does anyone think that this is occurring today?

    Countries like Australia may have to militarize and further protect its borders and protect non-urban regions for fear of a possible invasion by hostile and desperate nations that need its expensive and rare resources; A long shot, but still a concern even in the next 50+ years. It will become an even bigger ally of the US.

    A strong alliance will continue between the US, UK, Germany, France, Italy (Europe in general), Canada, Australia, Japan, Israel, Saudi Arabia (as long as we keep buying oil off of them), Thailand, parts of the old Soviet Union (too many to mention) etc. I'm not too sure about India. They pretty much will be on the opposing side of Pakistan, but may remain neutral. It's quite possible that China will not have strong ties with the US, but will remain a trading partner of course (with all countries; not much will change here). Russia will play all sides but will side with its strong (not popular in the west) trading partners. Iran is going to be a problem over the next decade, and if Glen Beck is correct, a real problem for Israel and parts of the west.

    China has a real problem; the demographics are skewered and do not favour an even +4% growth anymore (yes, no longer 10%). Their cities have long become the most expensive in the world (and so have many of their products!) and there still is a problem of the ultra-rich and the mega poor, and a demographic youth that has to support a growing aged population. The west still finds it hard to do business there, and there is growing unrest by a restricted and controlled people. The west may at times latently manipulate this to their advantage. Taiwan will continue to be a strategic trading partner to the west and a strong ally.

    India has a different crisis on its hands - the most overpopulated country and a real strain on their and the world’s economy; I wonder if nations will collaboratively form an agreement to kind-of ‘tax’ countries like India, via tariffs, for not making an effort to control its projected overpopulation and burdening other nations with higher costs for soft and hard commodities. Hard to believe now, but the world may be forced to make changes like these especially as it becomes a lot more desperate for rare commodities and more unified policies are agreed to, adopted and enforced by the majority.

    Another competing reserve currency failed to dethrown the USD, as it was initially used, accepted but ended up being manipulated on the exchange markets by the US and their highly sophisticated trading computer networks, which still controls the markets.

    Wealth will still be made from lack of supply and high demand for space/land, housing, soft and hard commodities etc and not necessarily form innovative developments and innovations. So don’t expect the world to look too dissimilar to what it does today; just more populated and more expensive. A real let-down if you ask me.

    The Federal Reserve (which has recently 'made' itself unbankruptable) is still in control, however, some fundamental changes were needed. It became more transparent but still managed to overstimulate the world's (not just the US’s) economy again and again. Hey, they're too big to fail.

    One of the biggest problems that countries have is an overburdening perpetuating debt crisis. Many, including the US, have no choice but to restructure their economies and even currencies. And yes, the finger was shown to countries holding and demanding payment on (unpayable) debt, more than once.

    The media is pure infotainment and continually ignores high level white collar corruption. A new generation of idiotic, interactive, reality TV shows will hit the airwaves.

    The United States has the most sophisticated military by far, and has opened up its doors to next generation defence and avionics (out of this world!) technologies, to some extent or to the extent they permit!

    Two of the biggest risks are overpopulation and perpetual debt; no real surprises here. But will this pave the way for more conflicts?

    To Be Continued…
    :cuckoo: (I just love this icon).
     
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  2. Pepe
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    Pepe Senior Member

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    Forecasting the weather out 48 hours with any degree of accuracy is still difficult even with all the super computing available.

    Forecasting or predicting what the world or the Amerikan Empire will look like in 2030 is an exercise in mental masturbation.

    The only thing I know for sure is that the world and its population will continue to change, evolve and that there will be wars and rumors of wars.

    However, having said that, some trend lines are observable and stand within the realm of possibility.

    The Age of the Amerikan Empire will come to an end in this decade.

    The days of the Imperial Subjects and Imperial Mandarins "sucking up" 80% of the world's savings and using 25% of the world's resources with 4% of the total population will come to an abrupt halt.

    I believe as the dollar continues to be devalued by the Federal Reserve, at some point the Oil Sheiks will move from dollar denominated sales to a basket or baskets of currencies which will have an overnight affect on the average "Sheeple's" budget.

    In FY2010, total Imperial Revenue from all sources was 2.2 Trillion. Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and Interest on the Debt costs were 2.2 trillion.

    The arithmetic is pretty straightforward.

    As the Empire moves forward, Investors will demand higher and higher yields for the "risk" incurred when lending to the dying Leviathan.

    By Obama's own figures the Debt in 2020 is expected to be close to 21 Trillion.

    At the moment the US must "borrow" 4.8 Billion every 24 hours and it must "roll over" approximately 25% of its Debt portfolio every year.

    This is clearly unsustainable.

    Six percent of 21 Trillion is 1,260 Billions.

    Eight percent is 1,680 Billions.

    Ten percent is 2,100 Billions.

    At the Jimmy Carter rate of 18% Interest on the Debt would cost the hapless "Sheeple" 3,780 Billions.

    My SWAG is that the US will begin to "balkanize" after the 2012 Election and will not remain a single geo-political entity past 2020.
     
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  3. editec
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    editec Mr. Forgot-it-All

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    You presume that our masters are seeking domination of the world as nationalists. I think you've been mislead into thinking that. I think that theeir real goal is the END of nationalism, and the BEGINNING of a one world government where international corporations say SHIT and the national governments ask how much and piled how high, Sir?

    Agreed.

    Didn't understand the above.


    And what will the WORKERS do for their daily bread while they're systematically made redundant by this digital revolution?


    Possibly. As I said before governments will assume all debt while corporations will garner all profits.


    Yeah, who knows? You might be right. But when I think about South Africa, and realize that the thought that something like peaceful transition appeared to be completely impossible? Well...

    By 2100 the private autmobile will be recognized as one of the STUPIDEST things modern man has done.


    I think you're applying the paradigms of the 19th century nationalists to a world where those rules really are no longer in effect.
    Hey, no problem! Everything that you and I are being told is designed to keep you in the dark.

    I won't go on because I think what you're doing is imagining that the TRENDS you see today, will continue on and on and on.

    That I rather doubt.

    Good thread though. At least you're trying to seriously think like a FUTURIST.
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2011
  4. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    I'm with Pepe on this one.
     
  5. Douger
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    Douger BANNED

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    WW3 is on the way. That's how the masters fix their fuckups.
     
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  6. sparky
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    sparky VIP Member

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    This old rock in 19 years?

    well, let's draw on what we already know....

    1) resources can't keep up with population

    2) a growing worldwide disparity

    the effects we see now from just these two factors, given a linear course, should be enough to conject a relationship less than sanguine for the kiddies

    in fact, ask any one of them who might be savey enough to be up on the current human gestalt , and i'd wager seeing they realize the broken glass we're handing them , they just express it with a tad less contempt , because they haven't quite lived the gambit of effect quite yet

    of course i'm not addressing those multitudes living on less that $2 a day , maybe when there's a lull in the bombing we can send Geraldo in eh?
     
  7. konkon
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    konkon Member

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    "Everything that you and I are being told is designed to keep you in the dark." I like this quote. A bit like the Matrix.

    Yes, the automobile with a combustion engine. Sounded good for a while, but I would have thought that from the 1980s, at least, we would have developed few-moving parts electric vehicles.

    "As I said before governments will assume all debt while corporations will garner all profits." This is a worrying trend. Governments (people, basically) are stuck with a perpetuating bill.

    The quantum computing era will create sets of jobs. Yes, a lot would find themselves redundant and this would add to the potential correction when all of our classical computers become anchors. But eventually this will spur new work as the classical computing world becomes fazed-out. It will potentially cost businesses lots though. Profit margins will decline etc.

    "Didn't understand the above." This is pretty much happening today; you have layers of debt to pay for goods and services and even more debt. Simple revenue itself cannot pay for the initial debt you started out with. This is occurring all over the world and it will continue to be an even bigger problem. However, people in general (governments etc too) will learn to live with this and this is what I meant as the whole process will be redefined or reset, to accommodate for these sorts of 'normal' practices (in the future). We had a taste of this the last decade or so.
     
  8. ekrem
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    ekrem VIP Member

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    By 2030, Germany will control the ECB and fiscal policy of €-members.
    Russia's and Germany's economy will integrate horizontally, and there will be a clear political framework which bounds both together and which will guarantee that Europe (Germany) is preferentially supplied by Russian resources.
    There will be increasing worldwide competition for resources.
     
  9. ekrem
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    ekrem VIP Member

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    World's resources can't sustain 3-4 Billion more people (China+other merging nations) on development levels like Central-Europe.

    The fish-tank will stay same size, some fishes will make diet some fishes will eat more. Not all fishes can grow indefinitely at same time in the fish-tank.
    There's a limit.
     
  10. whitehall
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    whitehall Gold Member

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    Oil will still equal power and money and unless the green revolutionary fools in the US get a brain transplant and start electing republicans with common sense America will become a 3rd world country and Obama and the Rev Wright and Van Jones and Bill Ayers revolution will be complete.
     

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