Surprise! Oversampling Dems Puts Obama in Lead

[skookerasbil]

No worries here...................


Election model with 100% success rate for past 30 years predicts Romney victory | The Raw Story



These guys already had it as a blowout and were waiting to hit the re-set button after the Sept economic #'s came in..........and we all know how that went.

 

[skookerasbil]

 

[AmericanFirst]

Because the people who voted for him last time won't admit they made a mistake. They have emotional investment in him.

Holy shit.... JoeB., are you acknowleding that Obama has been a mistake for America?!?!?

Sounds like it, wait for his response trying to pull his foot out of his mouth.

 

[Peach]

NONSENSE. The polls are of "likely voters". CONs have made voting so difficult in many states to keep those LIKELY to vote to a minimum. Again, at this time Obama is ahead about 3-4%, and Pubbies are doing all they can to keep at least 10% FROM voting.

AND, no, voting should REQUIRE NO EFFORT! Constitutional rights are NOT "earned" CONdumbs.

 

[8537]

The polls are skewed because they're going on the assumption that voter turnout this year will mirror the 'once in a century' Democrat turnout of 2008.

How did you arrive at that conclusion?

 

[GuyPinestra]

The polls are skewed because they're going on the assumption that voter turnout this year will mirror the 'once in a century' Democrat turnout of 2008.

How did you arrive at that conclusion?

Look at their methodology. 25% more Democrats than Republicans?

Buy that pig in a poke if you want to, but the ONLY poll that counts will come out the night of Nov. 6...

Wear your big boy Pull-ups...

 

[8537]

The polls are skewed because they're going on the assumption that voter turnout this year will mirror the 'once in a century' Democrat turnout of 2008.

How did you arrive at that conclusion?

Look at their methodology. 25% more Democrats than Republicans?

Buy that pig in a poke if you want to, but the ONLY poll that counts will come out the night of Nov. 6...

Wear your big boy Pull-ups...

What do you believe an accurate breakdown would be, and how did you arrive at that conclusion?

 

[freedombecki]

Obama's convention bounce seems to have evaporated. Rasmussen today has Romney up 3 points. Today's Gallup tracking poll had Obama up 5, a loss of 2 points over two days. Gallup uses a 7 day rolling average, so expect this number to continue to come down over the next several days. Undaunted, the media are trumpeting new polls with show Obama with 3 point lead nationally and significant leads in the battleground states of Florida, Ohio and Virginia. As is becoming routine, these new polls again oversample Democrats.

I realize oversampling Democrats is simply part of an effort to create an air of inevitability for Obama's reelection. Its a narrative the media is desperate to foster.

Surprise! Oversampling Dems Puts Obama in Lead

The funny part is, the have no idea how much damage they are doing to Obama by claiming a huge victory for him every day.

All that is doing is making what little voting base Obama has left feel comfortable that their job is done, while it's motivating the hundreds of millions of Americans who HATE Obama to get up off their couch and vote his ass out.

This is going to be a landslide loss for Obama that rivals the one Carter experienced (appropriate considering that Obama has followed the Jimmy Carter blueprint for failure to the letter - complete with allowing embassy's to be over run while showing fear of those responsible).

Romney may win but if he does, it certainly won't be a landslide.

It doesn't have to be, but it might likely be considering the past 4 years have taught American voters that you just can't make a socialist follower who kicks podiums when stirred into being a free world leader.

 

[Old Rocks]

President Obama 332 Governor Romney 206

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map No Toss Ups

Pretty much these same numbers since June.

 

[Peach]

The polls are skewed because they're going on the assumption that voter turnout this year will mirror the 'once in a century' Democrat turnout of 2008.

How did you arrive at that conclusion?

It is the daily soundbite from the extremist right. In Florida, not only must a voter have CURRENT photo ID, the address must match that of the voter rolls. Rick 'the VULTURE' Scott has put many hours into barring voters from the franchise. Many counties now have supervisor of elections offices open only 35 hours a week, some propose 30 hours a week to TRIM the county budgets. Scott's purge of eligible voters has slowed, but his cronies have also redesigned districts at whim. Precincts changed in my county a couple of months ago, thus, you must learn the new polling place or be denied the RIGHT to vote. All that can be done to stop the "wrong kind" from voting is being done.

 

[daveman]

Because the people who voted for him last time won't admit they made a mistake. They have emotional investment in him.

Holy shit.... JoeB., are you acknowleding that Obama has been a mistake for America?!?!?

Sounds like it, wait for his response trying to pull his foot out of his mouth.

Nuh-UH!!

/JoeB

 

[candycorn]

A lot of Dems who verbally support Obama on 'principle' will not show up to the polls b/c failure creates apathy. That's a real universal principle.

Yeah, look at the recent birther convention that had to be cancelled due to apathy. Have you ever felt less relevant Klanny?

 

[candycorn]

When the polls question 25% more Democrats than Republicans you SHOULD be up by double digits!

You're NOT!

Sucks to be you...

Actually it sucks to be Romney--unless you're so much of an idiot you believe that nearly every poll taken since May has oversampled Democrats.

You can try to BS others but you and other Romney supporters are BS'ing yourselves.

Want to make a bet? If Obama wins, you quit posting. If Romney wins, I'll quit posting.

Deal?

Can you produce a poll YOU BELIEVE that hasn't sampled 25% more Dems than Reps?

I don't think you can...

Can you pick a swing state where the Dems outnumber Republicans by 25%? Or are Dems just issued different phone numbers and that is how EVERY polling agency knows they are Democrats and only calls them

C'mon...don't bitch out on me...do we have a deal or are you a scared little girl?

 

[candycorn]

No worries here...................


Election model with 100% success rate for past 30 years predicts Romney victory | The Raw Story



These guys already had it as a blowout and were waiting to hit the re-set button after the Sept economic #'s came in..........and we all know how that went.

Come on...

If Obama wins, you stop posting.
If Romney wins, I stop posting.

You have a model to base your posting future on....I'm just going on gut instinct.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

A lot of Dems who verbally support Obama on 'principle' will not show up to the polls b/c failure creates apathy. That's a real universal principle.

Yeah, look at the recent birther convention that had to be cancelled due to apathy. Have you ever felt less relevant Klanny?

I think you'd be as good of a stand-up comedian as you would a political pundit

 

[JoeB131]

No shame required, despite the pathetic insistence on your part.

So, in summary, you can't provide a single shred of evidence to back up your claim that I'm a racist, to include your silly little "test".

Yet you will keep insisting I'm a racist.

Perhaps it's time you just admit you're a butthurt little sissy bedwetter. Acknowledgement is the first step to recovery.

Of course, you don't want to recover. You like being a butthurt little sissy bedwetter.

Sorry, guy, that's my impression, just from reading your posts....

Of course, for every post where I've called you a racist, you've done about 10 posts whining about me calling you a racist.

Someone doesn't whine that much unless I've hit a vital spot...

Your impression is, of course, utter bullshit.

And once again, I'm not whining. I'm pointing out the inescapable fact that you're unable to prove your claims.

Your Credibility Meter is pegged on zero, kid.

So you incessant whininng and stalking aren't whining and stalking...

Got it.

 

[candycorn]

Obama's convention bounce seems to have evaporated. Rasmussen today has Romney up 3 points. Today's Gallup tracking poll had Obama up 5, a loss of 2 points over two days. Gallup uses a 7 day rolling average, so expect this number to continue to come down over the next several days. Undaunted, the media are trumpeting new polls with show Obama with 3 point lead nationally and significant leads in the battleground states of Florida, Ohio and Virginia. As is becoming routine, these new polls again oversample Democrats.

I realize oversampling Democrats is simply part of an effort to create an air of inevitability for Obama's reelection. Its a narrative the media is desperate to foster.

Surprise! Oversampling Dems Puts Obama in Lead

Has anyone else noticed the growing number of parallels between the 2012 GOP and the 9/11 Truthers?

We've seen the denial about Bin Laden being killed.

http://www.usmessageboard.com/politics/229263-crazy-conservatives-merge-conspiracy-nonsense-into-political-forums.html#post5467892

Even at this late date, the number of confirmed birthers is actually growing....

http://www.usmessageboard.com/politics/246837-fed-prints-more-money-in-a-last-attempt-to-save-obama-5.html#post5988368

http://www.usmessageboard.com/politics/245699-dont-piss-valerie-jarrett-off-do-it-and-youre-gone.html#post5955201

http://www.usmessageboard.com/politics/244736-romney-to-cut-280-000-jobs-just-ask-him-10.html#post5934062

...though I've long held that if you were to scratch the average GOP supporter on this message board, they'd bleed birther black.

The conspiracy theories about the media being in the bag for Obama are prevalent as ever:

http://www.usmessageboard.com/politics/241961-mike-barnicle-pompous-non-credible-ass.html#post5854613

http://www.usmessageboard.com/politics/244334-poll-romneys-convention-speech-gets-record-low-marks-2.html#post5922405

Hell, they even tried to paint major industries as having chose sides:

http://www.usmessageboard.com/politics/206878-karl-rove-offended-by-clint-eastwood-s-chrysler-ad.html#post4773458

http://www.usmessageboard.com/politics/206878-karl-rove-offended-by-clint-eastwood-s-chrysler-ad.html#post4773465

http://www.usmessageboard.com/politics/227995-hollywood-rides-to-obamas-rescue.html#post5424013

Now of course, the polling agencies are "all against them" too. Except of course for the ones they agree with. Basically, Rasmussen is the Alex Jones of the GOP

I hope it doesn't get to the point of their producing low quality videos about Obama and this "conspiracy". Oh wait, Obama 2016 came out already.

 

[daveman]

Sorry, guy, that's my impression, just from reading your posts....

Of course, for every post where I've called you a racist, you've done about 10 posts whining about me calling you a racist.

Someone doesn't whine that much unless I've hit a vital spot...

Your impression is, of course, utter bullshit.

And once again, I'm not whining. I'm pointing out the inescapable fact that you're unable to prove your claims.

Your Credibility Meter is pegged on zero, kid.

So you incessant whininng and stalking aren't whining and stalking...

Got it.

Just remember, Skippy -- I'm not the one who said he'd report any responses from his neg reps.

That would be you, you sissy bedwetter.

On top of that, you're incapable of originality.

You're simply not as bright as you've lied to yourself you are.

 

[miami_thomas]

How did you arrive at that conclusion?

Look at their methodology. 25% more Democrats than Republicans?

Buy that pig in a poke if you want to, but the ONLY poll that counts will come out the night of Nov. 6...

Wear your big boy Pull-ups...

What do you believe an accurate breakdown would be, and how did you arrive at that conclusion?

Just take a look at Wisconsin. More republicans showed up in the primaries for Scott and he was unopposed.

 

[kaz]

So in other words you have no idea at all how Obama is better for our side then Kerry, and no, you're not pulling the "you're a racist" stick out of your ass. Got it.

As I often say when reading your posts, I ask, WHAT THE FUCK ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?.

I gave you THREE- count them - THREE solid examples of how the wingnut right wing's attitude towards Obama is worse than their treatment of Kerry, whom the worst that was done to him was his conduct during the war was challenged. (Which I personally have no problem with, since that's what he chose to run on.)

That wasn't the question dumb ass. You keep saying the only reason we don't like Obama, who is a Marxist, is because he's black. I asked for three ways that Obama's policies are better ... by our standards, not your hack partisan liberal Democrat ones ... that Obama is better than Kerry.

Name three things that a fiscal conservative would say wow, Obama is better than Kerry, which would then at least attempt to support your contention.

And you're butt stupid, you keep running around yelling racist, racist, so I respond with you hate Jews and you're like where did that come from? Mirror, asshole. That you have to resort to the stupid tactics you do is the best proof what a lame candidate you have. If Obama didn't blow, you'd stick to the issues. But in every discussion you go ad hominem because it's all you got, girlfriend.