- Moderator
- #61
Obama's convention bounce seems to have evaporated. Rasmussen today has Romney up 3 points. Today's Gallup tracking poll had Obama up 5, a loss of 2 points over two days. Gallup uses a 7 day rolling average, so expect this number to continue to come down over the next several days. Undaunted, the media are trumpeting new polls with show Obama with 3 point lead nationally and significant leads in the battleground states of Florida, Ohio and Virginia. As is becoming routine, these new polls again oversample Democrats.
I realize oversampling Democrats is simply part of an effort to create an air of inevitability for Obama's reelection. Its a narrative the media is desperate to foster.
Surprise! Oversampling Dems Puts Obama in Lead
Both Romney and Obama win 90+% of their respective party's vote, but Romney beats Obama among Independents by 11 points. The only way Romney can win Independents by such a large margin and still trail Obama is if the sample is heavily skewed in favor of Democrats.
This is the same observation about that poll I made a few days ago. It didn't make sense.