Surprise! Oversampling Dems Puts Obama in Lead

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Obama's convention bounce seems to have evaporated. Rasmussen today has Romney up 3 points. Today's Gallup tracking poll had Obama up 5, a loss of 2 points over two days. Gallup uses a 7 day rolling average, so expect this number to continue to come down over the next several days. Undaunted, the media are trumpeting new polls with show Obama with 3 point lead nationally and significant leads in the battleground states of Florida, Ohio and Virginia. As is becoming routine, these new polls again oversample Democrats.

I realize oversampling Democrats is simply part of an effort to create an air of inevitability for Obama's reelection. Its a narrative the media is desperate to foster.

Surprise! Oversampling Dems Puts Obama in Lead

Both Romney and Obama win 90+% of their respective party's vote, but Romney beats Obama among Independents by 11 points. The only way Romney can win Independents by such a large margin and still trail Obama is if the sample is heavily skewed in favor of Democrats.

This is the same observation about that poll I made a few days ago. It didn't make sense.

 

[GoneBezerk]

If I want a rigged poll, take it in NYC.

Sample the ghetto, gay areas and liberal elite areas.....end of story.

Hell, I can stand on a street corner in NYC and pick out liberals 75% of the time....just ask them the poll questions.

Also, the questions can be set up to be biased with built-in lies. "European leaders believe in Obama's foreign policies, but Romney has questioned them. Do you believe in Obama's foreign policies?" Yes or No....

 

[Full-Auto]

Look at all these Republican true believers. They can't tell us how these polls are skewed, but they _feel_ it has to be so, and to so many extremist conservatives, their own precious feelings define their reality. A stunted sense of empathy is a common trait among hardline conservatives, so they're incapable of understanding that other people don't feel like they do.

Again, here's the current list of conspiracy theory excuses that Republicans are pre-positioning to explain their upcoming big loss.

1. Rigged polls!
2. Democratic vote fraud!
3. Suppressing the military vote!
4. September/October surprise in the middle east!
5. Liberal media!
6. Black Panther thugs!
7. Welfare cases being bribed with more welfare!

Not surprisingly, you don't see any Democratics here pre-positioning conspiracy theory excuses to explain why they lost.

The proof of oversampling has already been posted on this board.

Try to catch up..............

There was no proof posted.

You can't prove oversampling unless you can prove what the correct sampling should be, in these cases.

What is the correct sampling of Democrats vs. Republicans voting in 2012 in Ohio?

You tell us, then tell us how you know that number is correct.

Yes there was.

The post convention bounce was from oversampling dems in boston..

Thanks for playing...............

 

[mamooth]

The proof of oversampling has already been posted on this board.

Then why are you and the other conservatives on this thread so incapable of showing that proof, despite being asked for it over and over? Such "proof" apparently exists only in your own minds. I'm sure you _feel_ you've proven it, but the reason-based community will require more "proof" than just your feelings.

 

[NYcarbineer]

The proof of oversampling has already been posted on this board.

Try to catch up..............

There was no proof posted.

You can't prove oversampling unless you can prove what the correct sampling should be, in these cases.

What is the correct sampling of Democrats vs. Republicans voting in 2012 in Ohio?

You tell us, then tell us how you know that number is correct.

Yes there was.

The post convention bounce was from oversampling dems in boston..

Thanks for playing...............

Don't be an asshole. Please. Let your 'nut friends be the assholes.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Obama's convention bounce seems to have evaporated. Rasmussen today has Romney up 3 points. Today's Gallup tracking poll had Obama up 5, a loss of 2 points over two days. Gallup uses a 7 day rolling average, so expect this number to continue to come down over the next several days. Undaunted, the media are trumpeting new polls with show Obama with 3 point lead nationally and significant leads in the battleground states of Florida, Ohio and Virginia. As is becoming routine, these new polls again oversample Democrats.

I realize oversampling Democrats is simply part of an effort to create an air of inevitability for Obama's reelection. Its a narrative the media is desperate to foster.

Surprise! Oversampling Dems Puts Obama in Lead

Both Romney and Obama win 90+% of their respective party's vote, but Romney beats Obama among Independents by 11 points. The only way Romney can win Independents by such a large margin and still trail Obama is if the sample is heavily skewed in favor of Democrats.

This is the same observation about that poll I made a few days ago. It didn't make sense.

It easily makes sense if the poll oversampled CONSERVATIVE Independents.

 

[NYcarbineer]

The PPP poll showing Obama winning Ohio by 5 sampled 4 percentage points fewer Democrats vs. Republicans vs. the actual turnout in 2008.

 

[GoneBezerk]

Obamination could get caught picking his nose on TV, then a poll will come out saying his ratings went up....

 

[daveman]

Look at all these Republican true believers. They can't tell us how these polls are skewed, but they _feel_ it has to be so, and to so many extremist conservatives, their own precious feelings define their reality. A stunted sense of empathy is a common trait among hardline conservatives, so they're incapable of understanding that other people don't feel like they do.

Again, here's the current list of conspiracy theory excuses that Republicans are pre-positioning to explain their upcoming big loss.

1. Rigged polls!
2. Democratic vote fraud!
3. Suppressing the military vote!
4. September/October surprise in the middle east!
5. Liberal media!
6. Black Panther thugs!
7. Welfare cases being bribed with more welfare!

Not surprisingly, you don't see any Democratics here pre-positioning conspiracy theory excuses to explain why they lost.

Nonsense. It's the same one we've been hearing for 4 years now:

"If you don't support Obama, you're racist!"

 

[JoeB131]

Every time you post, you prove it, guy...

Okay, I see the problem. You see your own butthurt and think it's someone else's hatred.

You really are a sissy bedwetter. Grow up, boy.

Naw, I enjoy living rent free in your head, man.

The only butthurt is you whining about being called a racist when you ought to be used to that by now...

 

[Full-Auto]

The proof of oversampling has already been posted on this board.

Then why are you and the other conservatives on this thread so incapable of showing that proof, despite being asked for it over and over? Such "proof" apparently exists only in your own minds. I'm sure you _feel_ you've proven it, but the reason-based community will require more "proof" than just your feelings.

Are your fingers broke??????

It was posted here in this forum...

Remain ignorant at your peril...........

 

[Full-Auto]

I am now officially sand bagging...Bring on the idiot democrats that doubt oversampling..........

 

[daveman]

Every time you post, you prove it, guy...

Okay, I see the problem. You see your own butthurt and think it's someone else's hatred.

You really are a sissy bedwetter. Grow up, boy.

Naw, I enjoy living rent free in your head, man.

The only butthurt is you whining about being called a racist when you ought to be used to that by now...

Oh, I'm not whining about it. I'm completely used to being called a racist by idiot leftists who can't defend the policies and politicians they support and seek to shame those who disagree into silence.

Meanwhile, the fact remains that you have utterly failed to provide even one example of my alleged racism. If it was as obvious as you claim, you shouldn't have any trouble providing evidence, should you?

Yet you haven't. Therefore, your claim is false, and you know it.

But you bitterly cling to the lie. How's that working out for you? Have you shamed me into silence yet?

 

[mamooth]

I am now officially sand bagging...Bring on the idiot democrats that doubt oversampling..........

The cultists certainly do get angry with anyone who casts doubt on the cult's holy dogma.

The kooks are now stating that the same pollsters which called 2008 and 2010 nearly perfectly are now all obviously totally wrong. Why? Because they _feel_ it has to be so. Other than their precious feelings, they have no evidence that the party distribution weightings used are incorrect. They feel that since they themselves hate all liberals in a completely deranged and obsessive fashion, everyone else has to be just like them, and thus the demographics couldn't possibly be the way they are.

Democrats didn't act like this in 2010. We knew we were in deep trouble. There was a bit of denial going on about how bad it would be, but we certainly didn't whine about how the polls were obviously rigged because they all showed the Democrats getting pasted.

 

[Full-Auto]

I am now officially sand bagging...Bring on the idiot democrats that doubt oversampling..........

The cultists certainly do get angry with anyone who casts doubt on the cult's holy dogma.

The kooks are now stating that the same pollsters which called 2008 and 2010 nearly perfectly are now all obviously totally wrong. Why? Because they _feel_ it has to be so. Other than their precious feelings, they have no evidence that the party distribution weightings used are incorrect. They feel that since they themselves hate all liberals in a completely deranged and obsessive fashion, everyone else has to be just like them, and thus the demographics couldn't possibly be the way they are.

Democrats didn't act like this in 2010. We knew we were in deep trouble. There was a bit of denial going on about how bad it would be, but we certainly didn't whine about how the polls were obviously rigged because they all showed the Democrats getting pasted.

Yawn...... I still recall democrats needing therapy after a recent election............They were many articles about it, even from the fish wrap times.......


Latest AP Poll Sample Skews to Democrats by 17 Points - By Jim Geraghty - The Campaign Spot - National Review Online

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

What's funny about all these poll threads claiming that the sampling is skewed is that they never actually show HOW it's skewed,

because they never prove what the numbers are supposed to be.

Someone show us what the sampling numbers are supposed to be, and then prove to us why they are supposed to be that.

Carb and I do hope you are the same Carb I came to know and respect as a dem on other boards but your best work was on Hannity you've always been with passion but with a base line.

Here's your problem. It's "once in a lifetime" that a leader gets swept up in a feeling and then exalted into an office.

Your "Disney" world is crashing down around your shoulders. Speilberg can't make movie magic with this loser anymore.

The curtain has been pulled back. The utter failures of this administration are laid bare.

Is that your excruciatingly tiresome way of saying you cannot show why or how the polls are skewed?

They showed it multiple times dumb ass. Didn't you just tell someone else you were smarter than them?

 

[JoeB131]

Oh, I'm not whining about it. I'm completely used to being called a racist by idiot leftists who can't defend the policies and politicians they support and seek to shame those who disagree into silence.

Meanwhile, the fact remains that you have utterly failed to provide even one example of my alleged racism. If it was as obvious as you claim, you shouldn't have any trouble providing evidence, should you?

Yet you haven't. Therefore, your claim is false, and you know it.

But you bitterly cling to the lie. How's that working out for you? Have you shamed me into silence yet?

Oh, no, you're pretty much shameless and in denial.

I gave you the easy test to prove you are not a racist.

Name five things Obama has done you agree with.

Betcha can't do it.

 

[kaz]

I don't think the polls matter, it's going to come down to who is energized most to get to the polls, and I believe that people are more energized to get rid of this failure than his supporters are to keep him.

And I know that's what you really need to believe... but not really.

In fact, Obama will probably win for the following reason.

Because the people who voted for him last time won't admit they made a mistake. They have emotional investment in him.

On the other hand, the people who voted for McCain have no emotional investment in Romney.

Actually your point far more supports ba's than contradicts it. Not admitting a mistake is a pretty good reason to say you support Obama then stay home. Think about it.

 

[Meister]

Oh, I'm not whining about it. I'm completely used to being called a racist by idiot leftists who can't defend the policies and politicians they support and seek to shame those who disagree into silence.

Meanwhile, the fact remains that you have utterly failed to provide even one example of my alleged racism. If it was as obvious as you claim, you shouldn't have any trouble providing evidence, should you?

Yet you haven't. Therefore, your claim is false, and you know it.

But you bitterly cling to the lie. How's that working out for you? Have you shamed me into silence yet?

Oh, no, you're pretty much shameless and in denial.

I gave you the easy test to prove you are not a racist.

Name five things Obama has done you agree with.

Betcha can't do it.

Joe, that is not a litmus test for being a racist....just sayin'

 

[Full-Auto]

Oh, I'm not whining about it. I'm completely used to being called a racist by idiot leftists who can't defend the policies and politicians they support and seek to shame those who disagree into silence.

Meanwhile, the fact remains that you have utterly failed to provide even one example of my alleged racism. If it was as obvious as you claim, you shouldn't have any trouble providing evidence, should you?

Yet you haven't. Therefore, your claim is false, and you know it.

But you bitterly cling to the lie. How's that working out for you? Have you shamed me into silence yet?

Oh, no, you're pretty much shameless and in denial.

I gave you the easy test to prove you are not a racist.

Name five things Obama has done you agree with.

Betcha can't do it.

Joe, that is not a litmus test for being a racist....just sayin'

Desperation ploy....And I am saying it..............