Surprise! Oversampling Dems Puts Obama in Lead

[tinydancer]

Obama's convention bounce seems to have evaporated. Rasmussen today has Romney up 3 points. Today's Gallup tracking poll had Obama up 5, a loss of 2 points over two days. Gallup uses a 7 day rolling average, so expect this number to continue to come down over the next several days. Undaunted, the media are trumpeting new polls with show Obama with 3 point lead nationally and significant leads in the battleground states of Florida, Ohio and Virginia. As is becoming routine, these new polls again oversample Democrats.

I realize oversampling Democrats is simply part of an effort to create an air of inevitability for Obama's reelection. Its a narrative the media is desperate to foster.

Surprise! Oversampling Dems Puts Obama in Lead

Well the over sampling has been for forever first day in office?. And yes it is to attempt to depress voter enthusiasm, but they've got to be freaking out because every time you see poll numbers right wingers are double digits on enthusiasm.

Turn out will be every thing. This bastard ain't going down without a bloody fight.

My garden is almost wrapped up and then I'll work Senate races. If anyone needs a hand out there let me know.

The classic line "I got blisters on my fingers". I can rock for a long long time.

 

[NYcarbineer]

What's funny about all these poll threads claiming that the sampling is skewed is that they never actually show HOW it's skewed,

because they never prove what the numbers are supposed to be.

Someone show us what the sampling numbers are supposed to be, and then prove to us why they are supposed to be that.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Example:

Who can tell us what the correct ratio of Democrats to Republicans should be in an Ohio presidential preference poll?

If you think you know the answer, tell us how you know the answer.

 

[expatriate]

BTW- Majority of polls over sample democrats from between 6 - 13% they stated. ALWAYS over sampled.

that's not oversampling... that is merely polling folks in proportion to historical voter turnout.

 

[daveman]

Every time you post, you prove it, guy...

Okay, I see the problem. You see your own butthurt and think it's someone else's hatred.

You really are a sissy bedwetter. Grow up, boy.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

I don't think the polls matter, it's going to come down to who is energized most to get to the polls, and I believe that people are more energized to get rid of this failure than his supporters are to keep him.

And I know that's what you really need to believe... but not really.

In fact, Obama will probably win for the following reason.

Because the people who voted for him last time won't admit they made a mistake. They have emotional investment in him.

On the other hand, the people who voted for McCain have no emotional investment in Romney.

the people who voted for him last time won't admit they made a mistake. They have emotional investment in him.

These are the ones who will not vote at all this time.
Many others will admit their mistake, even if only to themselves, and vote against him.

 

[daveman]

That's not why they were sued you stupid cracker.

Do you think using racist terms makes you look intelligent? If so, I got some bad news for ya.

I know I'm smarter than you are. Bad news for you.

The trouble with our liberal friends is not that they are ignorant, but that they know so much that isn't so.

-- Ronald Reagan, the man whom the left hates because he said it was okay to be proud of being an American

 

[tinydancer]

What's funny about all these poll threads claiming that the sampling is skewed is that they never actually show HOW it's skewed,

because they never prove what the numbers are supposed to be.

Someone show us what the sampling numbers are supposed to be, and then prove to us why they are supposed to be that.

Carb and I do hope you are the same Carb I came to know and respect as a dem on other boards but your best work was on Hannity you've always been with passion but with a base line.

Here's your problem. It's "once in a lifetime" that a leader gets swept up in a feeling and then exalted into an office.

Your "Disney" world is crashing down around your shoulders. Speilberg can't make movie magic with this loser anymore.

The curtain has been pulled back. The utter failures of this administration are laid bare.

 

[expatriate]

DOJ threaten to sue Gallap because of the poll numbers before were not in favor of The DEMS Messiah .. Department of Justice sues Gallup | The Daily Caller

That's not why they were sued you stupid cracker.

Do you think using racist terms makes you look intelligent? If so, I got some bad news for ya.

the truth hurts. the lawsuit had nothing to do with polling percentages.

 

[007]

Obama's convention bounce seems to have evaporated. Rasmussen today has Romney up 3 points. Today's Gallup tracking poll had Obama up 5, a loss of 2 points over two days. Gallup uses a 7 day rolling average, so expect this number to continue to come down over the next several days. Undaunted, the media are trumpeting new polls with show Obama with 3 point lead nationally and significant leads in the battleground states of Florida, Ohio and Virginia. As is becoming routine, these new polls again oversample Democrats.

I realize oversampling Democrats is simply part of an effort to create an air of inevitability for Obama's reelection. Its a narrative the media is desperate to foster.

Surprise! Oversampling Dems Puts Obama in Lead

The libroids pretty much know the kenyan is going to lose. It's just a matter of how big. But this clinging to false impressions and lying to themselves now is just them avoiding the pain coming in November as long as they can. It's all about 'feeling good,' and as we all know, libroids think with their emotions, not their brains.

I don't think there's a thinking, logical person in America with an ounce of common sense, that doesn't lie to themselves that believes obama will be reelected.

 

[NYcarbineer]

What's funny about all these poll threads claiming that the sampling is skewed is that they never actually show HOW it's skewed,

because they never prove what the numbers are supposed to be.

Someone show us what the sampling numbers are supposed to be, and then prove to us why they are supposed to be that.

Carb and I do hope you are the same Carb I came to know and respect as a dem on other boards but your best work was on Hannity you've always been with passion but with a base line.

Here's your problem. It's "once in a lifetime" that a leader gets swept up in a feeling and then exalted into an office.

Your "Disney" world is crashing down around your shoulders. Speilberg can't make movie magic with this loser anymore.

The curtain has been pulled back. The utter failures of this administration are laid bare.

Is that your excruciatingly tiresome way of saying you cannot show why or how the polls are skewed?

Don't feel bad. Neither can anyone else.

 

[NYcarbineer]

That's not why they were sued you stupid cracker.

Do you think using racist terms makes you look intelligent? If so, I got some bad news for ya.

the truth hurts. the lawsuit had nothing to do with polling percentages.

What makes these posters so ignorant on this issue is that Gallup is supposedly skewing the poll in favor of Obama because of some imaginary threat,

and yet Gallup has Obama at +4, and Foxnews has Obama at +5.

Question to the ignorant:

What is causing Foxnews to skew their poll?

 

[Full-Auto]

He's down to two in Rasmussen.. every other pollster has an Obama lead...

Even Republicans are starting to panic... They know they picked an awful candidate.

which ones...You big government types......

 

[GuyPinestra]

The polls are skewed because they're going on the assumption that voter turnout this year will mirror the 'once in a century' Democrat turnout of 2008.

It's not going to happen. Obama's support is down across so many demographics about the ONLY 'group' he can count on to turn out in comparable numbers is black folks.

 

[mamooth]

Look at all these Republican true believers. They can't tell us how these polls are skewed, but they _feel_ it has to be so, and to so many extremist conservatives, their own precious feelings define their reality. A stunted sense of empathy is a common trait among hardline conservatives, so they're incapable of understanding that other people don't feel like they do.

Again, here's the current list of conspiracy theory excuses that Republicans are pre-positioning to explain their upcoming big loss.

1. Rigged polls!
2. Democratic vote fraud!
3. Suppressing the military vote!
4. September/October surprise in the middle east!
5. Liberal media!
6. Black Panther thugs!
7. Welfare cases being bribed with more welfare!

Not surprisingly, you don't see any Democratics here pre-positioning conspiracy theory excuses to explain why they lost.

 

[NYcarbineer]

The polls are skewed because they're going on the assumption that voter turnout this year will mirror the 'once in a century' Democrat turnout of 2008.

It's not going to happen. Obama's support is down across so many demographics about the ONLY 'group' he can count on to turn out in comparable numbers is black folks.

So the pollsters are supposed to skew their polls into a self-fulfilling prophecy?

 

[mamooth]

Sept. 12: Polls Since Conventions Point to Decline in 'Enthusiasm Gap' - NYTimes.com

Since 1988, the average Republican turnout advantage in presidential election years -- that is, the difference between registered voter polls and election results -- has been +1.5.

This year, before the Democratic convention, it was around +3.0. Now it's down to +1.4, lower than the historical average, lower than the 2008 level of +2.1 (which was far from a record turnout year), far lower than the 2010 level of +6.

The polls take these differences into account with their likely voter models. There is no turnout fairy who is going to wave her magic wand and save Mitt Romney. It's trending more the opposite way. The Democrats have put huge amounts of their cash into their ground game, which is far more important than expensive TV ads.

 

[GoneBezerk]

Democraps control the media and pollsters.

They believe if you tell enough lies through the media then rig polls to fool Joe Schmoe that it is really the truth, then they will vote against Romney/the GOP on election day.

It is the mob mentality, that we see in the muslim world today....someone says it's true then it must be true....so let's go vote or riot!

 

[Full-Auto]

Look at all these Republican true believers. They can't tell us how these polls are skewed, but they _feel_ it has to be so, and to so many extremist conservatives, their own precious feelings define their reality. A stunted sense of empathy is a common trait among hardline conservatives, so they're incapable of understanding that other people don't feel like they do.

Again, here's the current list of conspiracy theory excuses that Republicans are pre-positioning to explain their upcoming big loss.

1. Rigged polls!
2. Democratic vote fraud!
3. Suppressing the military vote!
4. September/October surprise in the middle east!
5. Liberal media!
6. Black Panther thugs!
7. Welfare cases being bribed with more welfare!

Not surprisingly, you don't see any Democratics here pre-positioning conspiracy theory excuses to explain why they lost.

The proof of oversampling has already been posted on this board.

Try to catch up..............

 

[NYcarbineer]

Look at all these Republican true believers. They can't tell us how these polls are skewed, but they _feel_ it has to be so, and to so many extremist conservatives, their own precious feelings define their reality. A stunted sense of empathy is a common trait among hardline conservatives, so they're incapable of understanding that other people don't feel like they do.

Again, here's the current list of conspiracy theory excuses that Republicans are pre-positioning to explain their upcoming big loss.

1. Rigged polls!
2. Democratic vote fraud!
3. Suppressing the military vote!
4. September/October surprise in the middle east!
5. Liberal media!
6. Black Panther thugs!
7. Welfare cases being bribed with more welfare!

Not surprisingly, you don't see any Democratics here pre-positioning conspiracy theory excuses to explain why they lost.

The proof of oversampling has already been posted on this board.

Try to catch up..............

There was no proof posted.

You can't prove oversampling unless you can prove what the correct sampling should be, in these cases.

What is the correct sampling of Democrats vs. Republicans voting in 2012 in Ohio?

You tell us, then tell us how you know that number is correct.