Stock market will crash in 60 days...

[DBA]

Why did you add "fake news" to my post? Do you think I'm lying? Today I am up 16.70%, do you think that is fake news?

It isn't fake news that the average retirement plan is well off its highs. That is a fact, despite what you may have been told.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

The average retirement plan was down 25% in 2022. That has not been made up on average.

You of course have a link to this?

 

[otto105]

The average retirement plan was down 25% in 2022. That has not been made up on average.

2022 is in the past.

the Daq is up near 40% this year.

 

[DBA]

You of course have a link to this?

Well, it is everywhere. The first link I found. They say 22.9% to be exact.

https://money.usnews.com/money/retirement/401ks/articles/how-much-have-401ks-lost-in-2022

 

[DBA]

2022 is in the past.

the Daq is up near 40% this year.

Average retirement savings are down considerably. What don’t you understand? Sure, there is always money to be made if you know how to trade, but the average retirement plan participant doesn’t trade stocks.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Well, it is everywhere. The first link I found. They say 22.9% to be exact.

https://money.usnews.com/money/retirement/401ks/articles/how-much-have-401ks-lost-in-2022

Damn, I need to be sure to send our 401k managers a gift card as I did not lose a third of that and my wife's TSP did even better

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Average retirement savings are down considerably. What don’t you understand? Sure, there is always money to be made if you know how to trade, but the average retirement plan participant doesn’t trade stocks.

Markets go up, markets go down. Been that way since they were invented. It is not a flaw, it is part of the design.

 

[DBA]

Damn, I need to be sure to send our 401k managers a gift card as I did not lose a third of that and my wife's TSP did even better

Keep in mind that most retirement accounts are not actively managed. Paying s a 1+% fee for management is not something the average investor does, not to mention that those with lower balances(the majority) are not the typical targets for money managers anyway. Having a money manager does typically protect you from the big dips, but that is at the expense of getting the larger gains. I have found that when I do the math and include the management fees, the actively managed accounts may net out a 1% better gain than my non-managed retirement. I do far, far better with the accounts I actively manage on my own.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Keep in mind that most retirement accounts are not actively managed. Paying s a 1+% fee for management is not something the average investor does, not to mention that those with lower balances(the majority) are not the typical targets for money managers anyway. Having a money manager does typically protect you from the big dips, but that is at the expense of getting the larger gains. I have found that when I do the math and include the management fees, the actively managed accounts may net out a 1% better gain than my non-managed retirement. I do far, far better with the accounts I actively manage on my own.

True about most accounts.

I have a 401k and the wife has the TSP. Those our outside of our hands other than choosing the mix and the risk factor. We have a smaller investment account I play around with but I rely mostly on my financial planner to do the leg work, I do not mind paying him for it as he does a great job and he has access to reports I do not.

I use him the same reason I use any other professional.

 

[DBA]

True about most accounts.

I have a 401k and the wife has the TSP. Those our outside of our hands other than choosing the mix and the risk factor. We have a smaller investment account I play around with but I rely mostly on my financial planner to do the leg work, I do not mind paying him for it as he does a great job and he has access to reports I do not.

I use him the same reason I use any other professional.

Sounds just like me. I have vetted several money managers but haven’t pulled the string yet. I do have a “little” in Edward Jones just because it was easy and I had a contact, but I am not very impressed thus far and thinking about pulling out of it. Their expenses are far too high and they don’t actively trade often at all, at least not my guy.

 

[Blaster]

Some “guru” makes a prediction like this about every other week

Nobody can predict a stockmarket crash. This guy just wants to sell his book.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Sounds just like me. I have vetted several money managers but haven’t pulled the string yet. I do have a “little” in Edward Jones just because it was easy and I had a contact, but I am not very impressed thus far and thinking about pulling out of it. Their expenses are far too high and they don’t actively trade often at all, at least not my guy.

Our first FP was a friend who did it for a living and when we got some money from my wife's father passing we gave it to him to invest. He did so and then did nothing with it for the next 3 years but always charged us an annual fee. So when we had our house built we pulled all the money away from him and used most for the earnest payment and held the rest. Through word of mouth of some of my wife's co-workers we found the one we have now and we are very pleased.

 

[citygator]

Average retirement savings are down considerably. What don’t you understand? Sure, there is always money to be made if you know how to trade, but the average retirement plan participant doesn’t trade stocks.

Nope. You'd have to be an idiot investor to be way down. The market is slightly under valued but not off historical returns.

 

[otto105]

Well, it is everywhere. The first link I found. They say 22.9% to be exact.

https://money.usnews.com/money/retirement/401ks/articles/how-much-have-401ks-lost-in-2022

Is it still 2022 in your mind?

Or 2020?

 

[otto105]

Keep in mind that most retirement accounts are not actively managed. Paying s a 1+% fee for management is not something the average investor does, not to mention that those with lower balances(the majority) are not the typical targets for money managers anyway. Having a money manager does typically protect you from the big dips, but that is at the expense of getting the larger gains. I have found that when I do the math and include the management fees, the actively managed accounts may net out a 1% better gain than my non-managed retirement. I do far, far better with the accounts I actively manage on my own.

Does dollar cost averaging mean anything to you.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Average retirement savings are down considerably. What don’t you understand? Sure, there is always money to be made if you know how to trade, but the average retirement plan participant doesn’t trade stocks.

2021 was a bad year for sure, but unless you were already retired needing the cash you should come out ahead as the benefit of still investing during a down market is you are getting more shares for your dollars. Then when the price goes up, which it has, you have more shares going up, leaving you better of than if no dip.

 

[justoffal]

...says best selling author Larry McDonald.

"They're playing catch up, and while they were doing quantitative easing in 2021, inflation started to rage and now they're trying to catch up," The Bear Traps Report founder Larry McDonald said Wednesday on "Mornings with Maria."

"Our 21 Lehman systemic risk indicators that look at equity and credit point to one of the highest probabilities of a crash in the stock market looking out 60 days," McDonald, who is also known for writing a best-selling book on the Lehman Brothers collapse, cautioned.

Stock market will crash in 60 days, best-selling author on Lehman collapse warns

Market risk indicators are signaling one of the highest probabilities of a crash in the next 60 days. The Bear Traps report founder Larry McDonald advises on how to allocate your capital.

www.foxbusiness.com

Don't have anything to add to that...not a stock expert. It just feels very very Black Monday-esque.

The title of that article is a little misleading...McDonald actually says "best chance" if the S&P earning fail to meet expectations.

I wasn't around in 1929...but I was in 1987.

You experts can discuss the ins and outs of the article...I'm just going to read the replies.

Well, most of the replies.

Not the replies from those who know less than I do who will unfailingly post that everything is fine because hope and fairy dust and a potato in the White House.

Well of course..... Not saying that it will but let's face it; you can't put that much funny money into the pot without affecting the pot. Sooner or later all the bottle again leveraging has to meet up with real hard goods... If at the end of that cycle the goods are not there you crash.

 

[Captain Caveman]

Do you ever get tired of being wrong?

The OP prediction on the Stock Market was produced using Climate Prediction Models

 

[meaner gene]

The OP prediction on the Stock Market was produced using Climate Prediction Models

Sean Hannity said we were in a recession September 2022

 

[otto105]

The OP prediction on the Stock Market was produced using Climate Prediction Models

Larry should have used a climate model then maybe he won't have been so fucking wrong.