stock market: good or bad?

[william the wie]

Right idea but I think you are looking at it wrong way around Flopper. It is avoiding the index losses that bring the higher returns. It turns out that lower risk equals higher returns and high risk equals lower returns. However lower risk is not the same as no risk and my portfolio is made up of optionable ETFs that at least have a sector risk of less than 1.

a 50% loss requires a 100% gain and so on. Looking over what I have I figure a 50% loss in the S&P will cost me less than 50% but if I write calls on the sectors that I own and out of the money puts on sectors I want to own and use that money to buy mini-S&P puts I can reduce my out of pocket losses by more than 50% to much less than 25% and possibly less than 20%. But I need a lot of uncorrelated sectors because useful idiots with money get somewhat scarce in the aftermath of a bear market. There is one hedge with a 28% house PC and I get to be the house in this case. I like that one a lot but I recognize that useful idiots with money get scarce in the aftermath of a bear market so I have other piles as well but I do love my safety harness while the good times roll.

 

[haissem123]

with black pools and instant swaps the markets over. stop being stupid and cut them out go direct to companies. fuck the sales men getting rich off selling us all out and cheating us with the same old tricks. time to wake up dah.

Just go to Wikipedia and look up Modern Portfolio theory then use either the links or investopedia to explain the terms you don't understand. There are massive diseconomies of scale in investing as in if you can't beat Buffett's record something is wrong with you. Since 1998 he has lagged the S&P on average and since 2010 he has struck out on earnings every year just google for his own public statements on the subject. When you are that big it is hard to find investments that make a difference in your bottomline and that you can get into, much less get off. I disagree with his self assessment that he could have gotten out of Coca-Cola at the top and agree with him that he should have. With positions that big getting out isn't really possible. Small and medium cap value stocks beat the averages by a huge amount. And there are enough of them to get you bery rich indeed.

If all you do is capitalize on others around you the you are a parasite that needs fixing. See?

 

[william the wie]

with black pools and instant swaps the markets over. stop being stupid and cut them out go direct to companies. fuck the sales men getting rich off selling us all out and cheating us with the same old tricks. time to wake up dah.

Just go to Wikipedia and look up Modern Portfolio theory then use either the links or investopedia to explain the terms you don't understand. There are massive diseconomies of scale in investing as in if you can't beat Buffett's record something is wrong with you. Since 1998 he has lagged the S&P on average and since 2010 he has struck out on earnings every year just google for his own public statements on the subject. When you are that big it is hard to find investments that make a difference in your bottomline and that you can get into, much less get off. I disagree with his self assessment that he could have gotten out of Coca-Cola at the top and agree with him that he should have. With positions that big getting out isn't really possible. Small and medium cap value stocks beat the averages by a huge amount. And there are enough of them to get you bery rich indeed.

If all you do is capitalize on others around you the you are a parasite that needs fixing. See?

think of it as non-lethal evolution in action. Back in 1970s, I know because I checked the data available at college, most college degrees had a negative Net Present Value. The real cost of a college degree in the liberal arts even without GI bill or other subsidy back then was less than a quarter of what it is now. Everybody who has gone that way is gene pool pollution.

 

[Alexa777]

As for me it is good, it gives growth and development. as an exampleAmerican corporation OPIC is ready to invest up to $ 250 million in each project in Ukraine

 

[SteadyMercury]

Margin is declining rapidly. The odds of a continued bull run have gone from roughly 15 to 1 to 9 to 7 as a result.

These look like made up numbers, what are these from a bookie?

 

[SteadyMercury]

If I had cash I would be investing in

Why is it the people with the most to say about investing usually turn out to not actually be invested in anything?

 

[SteadyMercury]

911 was God turning over the corrupt tables in his house.

Ahh big magic invisible person in sky got sick of stock market so made planes crash into buildings.

Gotcha.

 

[SteadyMercury]

Now correct me if I am wrong but this is the stock market in a nutshell.... A guy with no money, due to being controlled by the finical aspect of the world, has a great idea for a business that can help others and change lives. So without the money he turns to the men with the money and signs a contract so that man can "help" him. So basically that contract forms a publicly traded business so others can "benefit" from that companies growth. Now obviously there are different ways to fund a startup campaign so the business would not be publicly traded but if that man making the contract wants it there it will be. So with one simple little transaction the man with the money simply makes more money by doing nothing as long as that company flourishes.

I bolded where you went off the rails. The man with the money might make money, might break even, might lose some, might lose all.

 

[william the wie]

Margin is declining rapidly. The odds of a continued bull run have gone from roughly 15 to 1 to 9 to 7 as a result.

These look like made up numbers, what are these from a bookie?

I write for the audience I'm writing to. 92.25% is the usual probability of a non-correction in a given quarter when leverage is steady or increasing 56% is the probability when leverage declines without a correction..That is the reason for the word roughly.

 

[SteadyMercury]

So you believe one single factor (margin) can be used to determine the probability of a correction, using only only one of three states (steady, increasing, decreasing) to get a percentage change down to 1/100 of a percentage?

I'm a bit skeptical, the stock market is a far more complex system with way more variables to look at just any one measure to arrive at such specific odds.

 

[william the wie]

Your welcome to your opinion.

 

[SteadyMercury]

Okay then to clarify, you believe the odds of a correction in the stock market can be calculated down to the hundredth of a percentage by looking only at whether margin is rising or declining? Regardless of PE, growth expectations, sentiment, what the central bank says, world events, etc. that is all irrelevant all we need to know is margin direction and the odds become one of two values.

Seriously?

Sorry dude I love your posts and all but I find this shit laughable.

 

[Dogmaphobe]

Mutually exclusive dichotomies -- good or bad?

 

[william the wie]

Okay then to clarify, you believe the odds of a correction in the stock market can be calculated down to the hundredth of a percentage by looking only at whether margin is rising or declining? Regardless of PE, growth expectations, sentiment, what the central bank says, world events, etc. that is all irrelevant all we need to know is margin direction and the odds become one of two values.

Seriously?

Sorry dude I love your posts and all but I find this shit laughable.

Usually it is a warning sign of market manipulation as apparently revealed over the last 24 hours in the oil market

oil production and storage data was apparently removed from last week's data to be inserted into this week's data.

Backwardation in the futures market has temporarily ended and WTI may drop below transportation costs for awhile.

Shell in particular will be hit very hard due to its merger announcement yesterday.

That is turn means that the S&P will drop to some and FTSE even more. The fact is that massive bureaucracies at multiple Sovereign Wealth Funds cannot keep all mouths shut nor can prosecutions be brought.

 

[william the wie]

Edit time limit ran out but basically I keep in mind that even Benjamin Graham got hurt in 1929 by ignoring the need to hedge. The timing of your post and my exoneration was just luck but I do kind of like it.

 

[OohPooPahDoo]

So I'm debating in my own mind if the stock market is a drain on society or if it is beneficial...
We put money in for long term investments in companies.. if they go under we loose out. All it is is people playing with other people's money to try to either better the world with great inventions or make a quick buck.

No.

its just to make a buck.

Any inventions that come about are just there because they make a buck.

 

[SteadyMercury]

The timing of your post and my exoneration was just luck but I do kind of like it.

What exoneration? We were discussing whether a single factor (margin volume direction) could make the odds of a correction quantifiable to one of two distinct values accurate down to the hundredth of a percentage.

That is ridiculous to believe, the market is a far more complex system and many things impact the future odds of a correction.

 

[JiggsCasey]

it's great when growth is seemingly infinite ... unfortunately, we do not live in that world any more, as global net energy continues its rapid decline and the world's biosphere continues to die around us.. ... It's only the illusion of growth that continues to expand what is undoubtedly a stock market bubble...

In the short term, there is still time to pump and dump... In the mid- to long-term? Get out!!! Liquidate while you still can.

 

[CoachWitch]

There are people who made money enough for their living through stock investments and few of them have lost their lifetime savings. So, it’s difficult to predict if it is good or bad. I would suggest you to try your luck but be careful.

 

[william the wie]

it's great when growth is seemingly infinite ... unfortunately, we do not live in that world any more, as global net energy continues its rapid decline and the world's biosphere continues to die around us.. ... It's only the illusion of growth that continues to expand what is undoubtedly a stock market bubble...

In the short term, there is still time to pump and dump... In the mid- to long-term? Get out!!! Liquidate while you still can.

Liquidate into what?