Something Doesn't pass the smell test on these Ohio polls

[Synthaholic]

"...three swing state polls out today and in every single one of them, they have a Democratic voter participation that is higher than the participation in the electorate in 2008. I don’t know anyone on the ground in any of these swing states who believes that there will be a higher Democratic percentage of the electorate in 2012 than there was in 2008.”
Hot Air Exclusive*: Reince Priebus on polling, the election, and the Benghazi attack « Hot Air

Reince Priebus.

 

[Uncensored2008]

Stock Market..... Doubled
Positive GDP.......14 straight quarters
Positive Jobs growth......45 straight months

Bush Republicans can't claim that

Talking points sure make you look stupid, sparky.

Stock Market, still lower than the peak in the Bush years.

GDP, not keeping pace with population growth.

Employment at the lowest rate in 30 years.

Heckuvajob, Barry.

 

[hazlnut]

How Republicans are coping with the latest polls.

 

[Dr.House]

You confuse the political affiliation of voters at the polls with the self identified political affiliation of people taking phone polls

Nope... I know the difference...

The object of a poll is to get a snapshot of what the election results will be... It makes absolutely no sense to believe voter turnout will be D+9 in November..


Irrelevant to the discussion... But can you link me to something that backs up this "large percentage" who change affiliation? Maybe define "large percentage" as well, if you can?

Excitement will be a key factor on election day. As the Romney campaign fizzles, Republican voters are more likely to stay home. It is already affecting the Senate races...lets see what happens in the House

There are no indication Romney's campaign is fizzling - in fact he continues to outpace the empty chair in donations every month... In every poll, independents are breaking for Romney...

Barry is in trouble...

There are no indication Romney's campaign is fizzling

RealClearPolitics - Opinion, News, Analysis, Videos and Polls

Intrade odds: 75 Obama 25 Romney (was 57 to 43 a month ago)
Electoral Map 265 Obama 191 Romney (was 227 a month ago)
No Toss up States 347 Obama 191 Romney (Obama now leads EVERY swing state)
Senate: 52 Dems 48 Republicans ( a month ago this was reversed)

Sure looks like "Barry" is in trouble

All that does is confirm my point... when you compile and average oversampled polls, thats what you'll get...

If Barry has Ohio (or OIHA, as he spells it) locked, why is he campaigning there?

Same question on Wisconsin....

Keep pretending it'll be D+11 turnout on election day if it keeps you from kicking the dog...

 

[hazlnut]

"Oversampling" = big word for Limbaugh and Fox fans.

 

[rightwinger]

Nope... I know the difference...

The object of a poll is to get a snapshot of what the election results will be... It makes absolutely no sense to believe voter turnout will be D+9 in November..


Irrelevant to the discussion... But can you link me to something that backs up this "large percentage" who change affiliation? Maybe define "large percentage" as well, if you can?


There are no indication Romney's campaign is fizzling - in fact he continues to outpace the empty chair in donations every month... In every poll, independents are breaking for Romney...

Barry is in trouble...

There are no indication Romney's campaign is fizzling

RealClearPolitics - Opinion, News, Analysis, Videos and Polls

Intrade odds: 75 Obama 25 Romney (was 57 to 43 a month ago)
Electoral Map 265 Obama 191 Romney (was 227 a month ago)
No Toss up States 347 Obama 191 Romney (Obama now leads EVERY swing state)
Senate: 52 Dems 48 Republicans ( a month ago this was reversed)

Sure looks like "Barry" is in trouble

All that does is confirm my point... when you compile and average oversampled polls, thats what you'll get...

If Barry has Ohio (or OIHA, as he spells it) locked, why is he campaigning there?

Same question on Wisconsin....

Keep pretending it'll be D+11 turnout on election day if it keeps you from kicking the dog...

Go with it

Polls don't matter, Republicans are playing against a stacked deck, the media has it in for you

The Romney camp is in full blown panic mode and donors are getting nervous. Play Pollyanna as long as you like.....but Romney is in trouble

 

[hazlnut]

Talking points sure make you look stupid, sparky.

Stock Market, still lower than the peak in the Bush years.

Do you know what a bubble is?

 

[Uncensored2008]

Do you know what a bubble is?

I sure know what a partisan hack is.

 

[koshergrl]

How Republicans are coping with the latest polls.

Arnold!

Oh my.

 

[Dr.House]

"Oversampling" = big word for Limbaugh and Fox fans.

Ask an adult to help you with the big words, GED..

 

[Dr.House]

There are no indication Romney's campaign is fizzling

RealClearPolitics - Opinion, News, Analysis, Videos and Polls

Intrade odds: 75 Obama 25 Romney (was 57 to 43 a month ago)
Electoral Map 265 Obama 191 Romney (was 227 a month ago)
No Toss up States 347 Obama 191 Romney (Obama now leads EVERY swing state)
Senate: 52 Dems 48 Republicans ( a month ago this was reversed)

Sure looks like "Barry" is in trouble

All that does is confirm my point... when you compile and average oversampled polls, thats what you'll get...

If Barry has Ohio (or OIHA, as he spells it) locked, why is he campaigning there?

Same question on Wisconsin....

Keep pretending it'll be D+11 turnout on election day if it keeps you from kicking the dog...

Go with it

Polls don't matter, Republicans are playing against a stacked deck, the media has it in for you

The Romney camp is in full blown panic mode and donors are getting nervous. Play Pollyanna as long as you like.....but Romney is in trouble

0bama gonna pay my mortgage!

They'll love us in the Middle East...

I'm gonna close Gitmo!

We're going to turnout D+11 in november! Hope & Change!

 

[bigrebnc1775]

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Ohio: Romney vs. Obama

Let's go right through them:

Washington Post poll: Obama +8​

Washington Post Poll (washingtonpost.com)

But check out these internals!:

Democrat: 35% Republican: 25% Independent: 32% Other 5% No opinion: 4%

Now, I don't know if that's how it's weighted or, it's simply that's all they could get through land lines, but that's HUGELY disproportionate to the real voters. They find voter registrations are just about equal. There are not 10% more Democrats than Republicans in the voting populace. In other words, inaccurate poll!



Now, the next poll:

Gravis Marketing: Obama +1 ​

Report, Ohio Sep 21-22, 2012(1)

Democrat: 41.4% Republican: 31:1% Independent: 27.5%

Just really really really oversampling Democrats!

Purple Strategies Obama +4​

http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/PurplePoll-9.21.12.pdf

Democrat: 38% Republican: 36% Independent: 26% Other: 2%

This is actually the most fair poll yet, but when you put the poll equally and consider the margin of error, it's a toss up!

Fox News: Obama +7​

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Ohio: Romney vs. Obama

Democrat: 42% Republican: 36% Independent: 21% Other:1%

Now, THIS is really oversampled. You take away the over sampling and it puts it back again as a toss up!

University of Cincinnati: Obama +5​

Divided state still a toss-up | Cincinnati.com | cincinnati.com

Now, the U of Cin won't give their internals. Which I find interesting BUT if you take their online poll:

Cincinnati.com | Results: | cincinnati.com

It goes HUGE for Romney. Yes, I know an online poll is not a "scientific poll" but I bet it reaches more people than these land line polls


Last but not Least:

Rasmussen: Obama +1​

Election 2012: Ohio President - Rasmussen Reports™

You have to pay these greedy buggers to get their internals, but with a margin of error of 4.5%, once again toss up!

These polls are all over the place and most of them are demonstrably oversampled.

If they have to do that to show Obama ahead, what's it really going to be like on election day.

We shall see.

November is coming!

Look at where RCP get their poll results to come up with it's on results most are skewed.
One poll I looked at for Wisconsin only poll 100 people, another poll took polls of inner cities, another poll was taken in Aug but used as a recent poll.

 

[Dick Tuck]

I looked it up for the last ohio poll taken.

Poll: Romney up 3 in Ohio, best showing since June - The Hill's Blog Briefing Room

Mitt Romney has opened a 3-point lead in the pivotal swing state of Ohio, according to a new poll released Wednesday — the Republican nominee's best showing since June.

The Republican ticket garnered support of 47 percent of those surveyed, versus 43 percent for Democrats, according to a poll released by Gravis Marketing. President Obama has led consistently in the polls since June, although that lead has been usually within the margin of error.

Here's the date of that article, moron: 09/05/12. That poll was taken before the Democratic Convention. Don't claim you didn't know that. I think you're just another right wing liar.

 

[rightwinger]

All that does is confirm my point... when you compile and average oversampled polls, thats what you'll get...

If Barry has Ohio (or OIHA, as he spells it) locked, why is he campaigning there?

Same question on Wisconsin....

Keep pretending it'll be D+11 turnout on election day if it keeps you from kicking the dog...

Go with it

Polls don't matter, Republicans are playing against a stacked deck, the media has it in for you

The Romney camp is in full blown panic mode and donors are getting nervous. Play Pollyanna as long as you like.....but Romney is in trouble

0bama gonna pay my mortgage!

They'll love us in the Middle East...

I'm gonna close Gitmo!

We're going to turnout D+11 in november! Hope & Change!

They are not going to get D+11 turnout in November. What they will get is Democratic voters PLUS Independent voters who will give Obama an overwhelming margin of victory. Any way you slice it, Romneys campaign is in flames. Barring a miracle in the debates, he will drag the rest of the Republican Party down with him

 

[Dr.House]

Go with it

Polls don't matter, Republicans are playing against a stacked deck, the media has it in for you

The Romney camp is in full blown panic mode and donors are getting nervous. Play Pollyanna as long as you like.....but Romney is in trouble

0bama gonna pay my mortgage!

They'll love us in the Middle East...

I'm gonna close Gitmo!

We're going to turnout D+11 in november! Hope & Change!

They are not going to get D+11 turnout in November. What they will get is Democratic voters PLUS Independent voters who will give Obama an overwhelming margin of victory. Any way you slice it, Romneys campaign is in flames. Barring a miracle in the debates, he will drag the rest of the Republican Party down with him

Independents are breaking big time for Romney... You need to pay attention...

Check this out:

Early voting on pace to surpass 2008 levels in Ohio

From the article:

Much of the early action is in Cuyahoga (Cleveland) and Hamilton (Cincinnati) counties. In Hamilton, absentee ballot requests are running ahead of the 2008 pace by 3 to 1, according to Board of Elections director Amy Searcy. As of this morning, her office had received 58,727 requests. Of those, 9,453 were from voters who requested Democratic ballots in primaries this year, and 17,824 from voters seeking Republican ballots. The rest were nonpartisan.

0bama is in trouble in OIHA... If he were in a comfortable lead, he wouldn't be campaigning there...

 

[Liability]

The liberals and the Democratics (pardon my redundancy) NEED to believe that the leaners and undecideds will fall on the Obama side of the fence come Election Day.



Their delusional thinking amuses me.

 

[rightwinger]

0bama gonna pay my mortgage!

They'll love us in the Middle East...

I'm gonna close Gitmo!

We're going to turnout D+11 in november! Hope & Change!

They are not going to get D+11 turnout in November. What they will get is Democratic voters PLUS Independent voters who will give Obama an overwhelming margin of victory. Any way you slice it, Romneys campaign is in flames. Barring a miracle in the debates, he will drag the rest of the Republican Party down with him

Independents are breaking big time for Romney... You need to pay attention...

Check this out:

Early voting on pace to surpass 2008 levels in Ohio

From the article:

Much of the early action is in Cuyahoga (Cleveland) and Hamilton (Cincinnati) counties. In Hamilton, absentee ballot requests are running ahead of the 2008 pace by 3 to 1, according to Board of Elections director Amy Searcy. As of this morning, her office had received 58,727 requests. Of those, 9,453 were from voters who requested Democratic ballots in primaries this year, and 17,824 from voters seeking Republican ballots. The rest were nonpartisan.

0bama is in trouble in OIHA... If he were in a comfortable lead, he wouldn't be campaigning there...

Sure they are

Ohio has moved from a tossup state to leaning Obama. Virginia will be next to move off the table for Romney

The election has slipped away for Republicans

They have no chance at the White House, they have a fleeting chance at the Senate and unless they stop the bleeding soon...their firm grasp on the House may slip away also

 

[bigrebnc1775]

0bama gonna pay my mortgage!

They'll love us in the Middle East...

I'm gonna close Gitmo!

We're going to turnout D+11 in november! Hope & Change!

They are not going to get D+11 turnout in November. What they will get is Democratic voters PLUS Independent voters who will give Obama an overwhelming margin of victory. Any way you slice it, Romneys campaign is in flames. Barring a miracle in the debates, he will drag the rest of the Republican Party down with him

Independents are breaking big time for Romney... You need to pay attention...

Check this out:

Early voting on pace to surpass 2008 levels in Ohio

From the article:

Much of the early action is in Cuyahoga (Cleveland) and Hamilton (Cincinnati) counties. In Hamilton, absentee ballot requests are running ahead of the 2008 pace by 3 to 1, according to Board of Elections director Amy Searcy. As of this morning, her office had received 58,727 requests. Of those, 9,453 were from voters who requested Democratic ballots in primaries this year, and 17,824 from voters seeking Republican ballots. The rest were nonpartisan.

0bama is in trouble in OIHA... If he were in a comfortable lead, he wouldn't be campaigning there...

obama's attack on coal isn't helping him in those coal mining states.

 

[Dick Tuck]

The New York Times/CBS/Quinnipiac poll has a D+9 split... Thats even more than the 2008 exit splits...

In what reality do you wingnuts think you're going to turnout in numbers greater than 2008?

Man, you idiots are going to be in for a brutal night in November... I can't wait...lol

In the reality where Obama wins Ohio by 10 points. If the polls are showing him winning by 10 points, they will show a great D than R turnout.

It's an unweighted poll, you dumbass....

I can't stop you from believing the turnout will be D+9 on election night, but I will laugh my ass off at you when it doesn't happen....

Bookmarked...

Wrong ass monkey. Are you too fucking lazy to actually look something up before trying to present it as fact?

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/26/us/politics/how-the-poll-was-conducted.html

Each state’s results have been weighted to adjust for variation in the sample relating to region, sex, race, Hispanic origin, age and education.

 

[AceRothstein]

You should see an Otolaryngologist ASAP to make sure there is nothing wrong with your nose. The polls smell perfectly fine to me.