Something Doesn't pass the smell test on these Ohio polls

Discussion in 'Election Forums' started by teapartysamurai, Sep 25, 2012.

  1. teapartysamurai
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    teapartysamurai Gold Member

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    RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Ohio: Romney vs. Obama

    Let's go right through them:

    Washington Post poll: Obama +8

    Washington Post Poll (washingtonpost.com)

    But check out these internals!:

    Now, I don't know if that's how it's weighted or, it's simply that's all they could get through land lines, but that's HUGELY disproportionate to the real voters. They find voter registrations are just about equal. There are not 10% more Democrats than Republicans in the voting populace. In other words, inaccurate poll!



    Now, the next poll:

    Gravis Marketing: Obama +1

    Report, Ohio Sep 21-22, 2012(1)

    Just really really really oversampling Democrats!



    Purple Strategies Obama +4

    http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/PurplePoll-9.21.12.pdf

    This is actually the most fair poll yet, but when you put the poll equally and consider the margin of error, it's a toss up!



    Fox News: Obama +7

    RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Ohio: Romney vs. Obama

    Now, THIS is really oversampled. You take away the over sampling and it puts it back again as a toss up!


    University of Cincinnati: Obama +5

    Divided state still a toss-up | Cincinnati.com | cincinnati.com

    Now, the U of Cin won't give their internals. Which I find interesting BUT if you take their online poll:

    Cincinnati.com | Results: | cincinnati.com

    It goes HUGE for Romney. Yes, I know an online poll is not a "scientific poll" but I bet it reaches more people than these land line polls


    Last but not Least:

    Rasmussen: Obama +1

    Election 2012: Ohio President - Rasmussen Reports™

    You have to pay these greedy buggers to get their internals, but with a margin of error of 4.5%, once again toss up!

    These polls are all over the place and most of them are demonstrably oversampled.

    If they have to do that to show Obama ahead, what's it really going to be like on election day.

    We shall see.

    November is coming!
     
    Last edited: Sep 25, 2012
  2. Plasmaball
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    Plasmaball Gold Member

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    Ah the I disagree with what's happening so therefore it must be a conspiracy thread.

    Its always something with you people.
     
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  3. teapartysamurai
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    teapartysamurai Gold Member

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    I'm not giving a "conspiracy." I'm giving Democrats are being oversampled.

    Even you have to agree there are not 10% more Democrats than Republicans in the general voting public.

    I mean PLEASE!

    I think there are a lot of reasons this could be happening.

    For one Republicans work, are not on welfare, therefore are more likely to be tech saavy.

    For example, my household hasn't had a land line in a long time.

    There are many reasons this could be happening, but it's pretty obvious most of the polls are oversampled Democrats.

    If you don't believe me, follow the links I supplied and read the internals yourself.

    I just made it easy for you and put the internals on the page.

    November is coming.
     
  4. Leweman
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    Leweman Gold Member

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    No polls are ever right this far from the election. Most polls are still wrong even the weekend before the election. I don't understand the obsession with polls.
     
  5. teapartysamurai
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    teapartysamurai Gold Member

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    Well, that's the point I'm making.

    They are HUGELY inaccurate.

    There is no way there are 10% more Democrats than Republicans in Ohio.

    Yes, the big three (Columbus, Cincy, and Cleveland) are Democrat, but rest of Ohio is BIGTIME REPUBLICAN.

    And Ohio went HUGE for Republicans in the last election, but the "experts" keep telling us Ohio is in the blue category?

    Just doesn't add up.

    I could be wrong, but I just don't think these polls are reflecting voter turnout. I think they are trying to influence voter turnout.

    I've seen this before in other elections.

    The election of 1980, Carter/Reagan springs instantly to mind.

    The polls kept saying toss up right until the bitter end.
     
  6. teapartysamurai
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    teapartysamurai Gold Member

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    And that's another reason the polls could be oversampling Democrats.

    Like I said, Columbus, Cincinnati, and Cleveland are Big time Democrat.

    If pollers are only calling the "metropolitian" areas and not the more rural parts of Ohio, OF COURSE they are going to get an oversampling of Democrats!
     
    Last edited: Sep 25, 2012
  7. teapartysamurai
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    teapartysamurai Gold Member

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    And last but not least there is the: "I don't want to diss the black guy" factor.

    I see one or two Obama bumper stickers on the bumpers of cars, I never see Romney.

    But I think most of Romney supporters are like me. We have seen the violence of the Unions and other wacko Obama supporters and we don't want to see our cars keyed.

    When I had a Bush bumper sticker in 2004, I had my tires "mysteriously" punctured 8 times!

    Liberals are the lowest.

    You would never see a conservative doing something like that to a car with an Obama sticker.
     
    Last edited: Sep 25, 2012
  8. Black_Label
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    Black_Label Registered Democrat

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    Whoops

    Obama bumper sticker fuels violent political road rage in Tennessee. | ThinkProgress
     
  9. CrusaderFrank
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    CrusaderFrank Diamond Member

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    "Oversampling" Democrats is a polite way of accounting for voter fraud. In WI recall, there were more areas with votes cast than there were registered voters.

    The non-living will come out big time, like never before for Obama. This will be the biggest, most blatant, more fraudulent election ever, especially in the swing states.
     
  10. Katzndogz
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    Katzndogz Diamond Member

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    It's not like Think Progress would ever print something that's not true! Most of what they say is not true.

    In the bumper sticker war, in Los Angeles at least, it would appear that no one is winning. I have yet to see one on either side.

    Unskewed Polls removes the weighting given to other polls and have Romney up across the board.

    UnSkewed Polls -- erasing the bias to show an accurate picture of politics
     
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