Something Doesn't pass the smell test on these Ohio polls

[Liability]

You should see an Otolaryngologist ASAP to make sure there is nothing wrong with your nose. The polls smell perfectly fine to me.

Which speaks volumes about your lack of objectivity, not about the fact that the polls are flawed.

Commentary: The mainstream media polls are skewed for a reason - Arlington Conservative | Examiner.com

 

[Dr.Traveler]

You know, a lot of you are claiming that the polls are oversampled, but what if they're not?

At this point the Republicans have alienated nearly every voting block that exists. Romney isn't even popular with Conservatives on all stripes right now. But let's look at the reasoning, as I see this around a lot:

Even you have to agree there are not 10% more Democrats than Republicans in the general voting public.

On a permanent basis? No. But this year might see some party affiliation switches just as past years have seen it the other way.

I mean PLEASE!

I think there are a lot of reasons this could be happening.

For one Republicans work, are not on welfare, therefore are more likely to be tech saavy.

Doesn't follow at all. First up, college age kids will beat down anyone outside their age group in tech savy and they tend to vote Democrat. Younger voters in the work force are also fairly tech savy and tend to lean Democrat.

For example, my household hasn't had a land line in a long time.

Congrats. You've graduated to the 20th century. Unfortunately for you, in my experience the folks without landlines tend to be college kids and young adults. Those often lean Democrat. It's the older workers that tend to have landlines from what I've seen.

In addition, consider that the most likely person to pick up the phone during the day are folks that are at home because they are:

A. Stay at home Moms (Typically Republican)
B. Retired (Typically Republican)
C. Out of Work (Who we've been assured repeatedly by you all will vote against Obama).

Republicans should be up in all these polls and oversampled. But they aren't.

If the Election Day results follow the average, then the conclusion is inevitable: This year, there are just fewer Republicans out there voting.

Past that, if you want to just toss out all the reliable data and go by your gut, then you're welcome to do so. But it means your opinions are pretty much worthless and uninformed. The data we have is the data we have.

BTW: Before you go grab Rasmussen as your "unbiased source", check the electoral map on their site. Obama is winning in the Electoral college at 237 safe electoral votes and up in Nevada, Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin and Virginia.

At this point, Romney is in some serious trouble. He CAN still win, but it's going to take a fairly strong get out the vote effort and some real actual work on his part.

 

[Liability]

You know, a lot of you are claiming that the polls are oversampled, but what if they're not?

* * * *

Well, then libs would have nothing to worry about.

But the point doesn't go away just because you ask some hypothetical.

There is a regular effort to ascertain (yes, using polling) what percentage of voters in a particular state are Republicans vs. Democratics vs. Independents. Partisan Trends - Rasmussen Reports™

Recently, in national terms, the GOP had 37.6% and the Dims had 33.3%.

That does not square AT ALL with the oversampling of Dims in so very many polls.

The national figures of course differ from any individual state's figures, but the principle doesn't change.

So, again. If the sampling is NOT skewed by Dim over-sampling, then the results may be disappointing to the GOP. But if they ARE skewed by over-sampling the Dims, then the final outcome might be expected to very much disappoint the Dims.

 

[Katzndogz]

The Ohio polls smell just like "The Stench" article that got democrats in a dither.

 

[Katzndogz]

Either there is a wide lead for obama in the swing states or he is losing the swing states because of his support for abortion. Both polls cannot be true.

Abortion advocacy hurts Obama in swing states | WashingtonExaminer.com

President Obama's support for abortion and taxpayer funded birth control could kill his chances to win swing voters in Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin and Florida, and possibly his reelection, according to a new poll.

Likely voters by a 49 percent to 25 percent margin, or two-to-one, say they are less likely to vote for Obama because he included taxpayer funding of abortion in Obamacare. A whopping 54 percent are less likely to back him due to his vote against a law to give equal treatment to babies born alive after a failed abortion. And 69 percent reject the administration's mandate that forces faith-based institutions to provide insurance that covers birth control.

 

[Dr.House]

They are not going to get D+11 turnout in November. What they will get is Democratic voters PLUS Independent voters who will give Obama an overwhelming margin of victory. Any way you slice it, Romneys campaign is in flames. Barring a miracle in the debates, he will drag the rest of the Republican Party down with him

Independents are breaking big time for Romney... You need to pay attention...

Check this out:

Early voting on pace to surpass 2008 levels in Ohio

From the article:

Much of the early action is in Cuyahoga (Cleveland) and Hamilton (Cincinnati) counties. In Hamilton, absentee ballot requests are running ahead of the 2008 pace by 3 to 1, according to Board of Elections director Amy Searcy. As of this morning, her office had received 58,727 requests. Of those, 9,453 were from voters who requested Democratic ballots in primaries this year, and 17,824 from voters seeking Republican ballots. The rest were nonpartisan.

0bama is in trouble in OIHA... If he were in a comfortable lead, he wouldn't be campaigning there...

Sure they are

Ohio has moved from a tossup state to leaning Obama. Virginia will be next to move off the table for Romney

The election has slipped away for Republicans

They have no chance at the White House, they have a fleeting chance at the Senate and unless they stop the bleeding soon...their firm grasp on the House may slip away also

The funniest thing is, I think you actually believe what you typed...

D+9 on election day...

 

[edthecynic]

No polls are ever right this far from the election. Most polls are still wrong even the weekend before the election. I don't understand the obsession with polls.

Me either. I find reading the comments left after news articles a lot more telling of public sentiment than some poll, and anti obama comments generally run 9 to 1 to comments for.

I think obama is way behind, and all these skewed polls are really doing is shoring up the Romney base and energizing them to go to the polls in November, because they don't believe them either, and they're going to show these poll takers just how WRONG they were.

Just remember the Reagan/Carter election. Enough said about POLLS.

Yeah! You can just feel all the energy as they cheer for Willard as he leads them!!!!

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1j1b8hZg0g]Mitt Romney tries to lead a chant - YouTube[/ame]

 

[Dr.House]

In the reality where Obama wins Ohio by 10 points. If the polls are showing him winning by 10 points, they will show a great D than R turnout.

It's an unweighted poll, you dumbass....

I can't stop you from believing the turnout will be D+9 on election night, but I will laugh my ass off at you when it doesn't happen....

Bookmarked...

Wrong ass monkey. Are you too fucking lazy to actually look something up before trying to present it as fact?

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/26/us/politics/how-the-poll-was-conducted.html

Each state’s results have been weighted to adjust for variation in the sample relating to region, sex, race, Hispanic origin, age and education.

You dumbfuck, I was talking about party weighting...

From your Slimes article:

Each state’s results have been weighted to adjust for variation in the sample relating to region, sex, race, Hispanic origin, age and education.

There was no PARTY weighting - they just took what they got...

Go be stupid somewhere else...

 

[Liability]

It's an unweighted poll, you dumbass....

I can't stop you from believing the turnout will be D+9 on election night, but I will laugh my ass off at you when it doesn't happen....

Bookmarked...

Wrong ass monkey. Are you too fucking lazy to actually look something up before trying to present it as fact?

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/26/us/politics/how-the-poll-was-conducted.html

You dumbfuck, I was talking about party weighting...

From your Slimes article:

Each state’s results have been weighted to adjust for variation in the sample relating to region, sex, race, Hispanic origin, age and education.

There was no PARTY weighting - they just took what they got...

Go be stupid somewhere else...

Dickless Fuckwit self-pwns.

 

[Katzndogz]

Most people will wait until after the debates to make a decision. The ones casting early ballots are those who have made up their minds and won't be swayed either way.

 

[NYcarbineer]

So even if the poll is off by NINE POINTS, Obama is still winning.

lolol

 

[NYcarbineer]

Most people will wait until after the debates to make a decision. The ones casting early ballots are those who have made up their minds and won't be swayed either way.

So there's at least 51% UNDECIDED??

You are indeed the least intelligent poster on this board.

 

[Dick Tuck]

You know, a lot of you are claiming that the polls are oversampled, but what if they're not?

* * * *

Well, then libs would have nothing to worry about.

But the point doesn't go away just because you ask some hypothetical.

There is a regular effort to ascertain (yes, using polling) what percentage of voters in a particular state are Republicans vs. Democratics vs. Independents. Partisan Trends - Rasmussen Reports™

Recently, in national terms, the GOP had 37.6% and the Dims had 33.3%.

That does not square AT ALL with the oversampling of Dims in so very many polls.

The national figures of course differ from any individual state's figures, but the principle doesn't change.

So, again. If the sampling is NOT skewed by Dim over-sampling, then the results may be disappointing to the GOP. But if they ARE skewed by over-sampling the Dims, then the final outcome might be expected to very much disappoint the Dims.

You don't know what you're talking about. Every party identification poll since July shows either Democrats or Independents outnumbering Republicans. Current average is 36% independents, 33% Democrats, and 23% Republican. The only pollster that has claimed Republicans to be leading the plurality is Rassmussen, and he hasn't even published this kind of poll since early May.

Party Identification - Adults

You're an idiot.

 

[Dick Tuck]

It's an unweighted poll, you dumbass....

I can't stop you from believing the turnout will be D+9 on election night, but I will laugh my ass off at you when it doesn't happen....

Bookmarked...

Wrong ass monkey. Are you too fucking lazy to actually look something up before trying to present it as fact?

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/26/us/politics/how-the-poll-was-conducted.html

You dumbfuck, I was talking about party weighting...

From your Slimes article:

Each state’s results have been weighted to adjust for variation in the sample relating to region, sex, race, Hispanic origin, age and education.

There was no PARTY weighting - they just took what they got...

Go be stupid somewhere else...

Why should they weigh for party when all other demographics are taken into account. If you meant party weighing, you should have said that you fucking imbecile. You didn't.

You take stupid to new heights.

 

[theDoctorisIn]

You can't weigh a poll by party registration. It defeats the point of the poll.

The way people self-identify changes constantly.

 

[Dick Tuck]

Wrong ass monkey. Are you too fucking lazy to actually look something up before trying to present it as fact?

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/26/us/politics/how-the-poll-was-conducted.html

You dumbfuck, I was talking about party weighting...

From your Slimes article:

Each state’s results have been weighted to adjust for variation in the sample relating to region, sex, race, Hispanic origin, age and education.

There was no PARTY weighting - they just took what they got...

Go be stupid somewhere else...

Dickless Fuckwit self-pwns.

The self-pwned one is the Douchebag House. He made the unequivocal statement that the latest Quinnipiac wasn't weighted. He, and it appears you also, don't know your ass from a hole in the ground.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Use your heads, people.

Why would Romney NOT be losing? His campaign is shit, his ideas are shit, is VP is shit, his personality is shit, his party is shit,

that is simply too much shit to carry over the finish line ahead of anyone...

 

[Dr.House]

You dumbfuck, I was talking about party weighting...

From your Slimes article:



There was no PARTY weighting - they just took what they got...

Go be stupid somewhere else...

Dickless Fuckwit self-pwns.

The self-pwned one is the Douchebag House. He made the unequivocal statement that the latest Quinnipiac wasn't weighted. He, and it appears you also, don't know your ass from a hole in the ground.

We are talking party, fuckstain... The poll was not weighted by party...

Go play in heavy traffic, asshat...

 

[Dr.House]

Use your heads, people.

You should...

If it's a lock in theses states, why is 0bama spending tons of money and effort on them...

Pull your head out of your ass, boy...

 

[Article 15]

I love these threads.

It's fascinating what the nutters will bitterly cling to in order to maintain such a high level of cognitive dissonance.