http://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2014/02/Oversensitive-How-The-IPCC-hid-the-Good-News-on-Global-Warming.pdf it has become more and more clear over the last decade that the high feedback/high sensitivity numbers being proclaimed by many climate scientists are out of alignment with reality. it is this exaggeration that changes the relatively benign warming that we have been experiencing into the catastrophic anthropogenic global warming boogieman that we have been bombarded with for more than 25 years. last fall I stated that I thought the IPCC would just ignore the new data and stay the course. they actually were more clever than that. they just buried the evidence and pretended that it wasnt worth mentioning, and didnt bother to rework their 'projections' with best estimates. that gives them plausible deniability. plausible deniability is also the reason why the leadership of large scientific organizations come out so strongly in defence of CAGW even though their membership has decidedly less confidence in the 'concensus'. it is much easier to survive a pessimistic prediction that doesnt happen than an optimistic one that turns out badly. the risk has been massively overstated, and the insurance policy we are being asked to buy is monsterously more expensive than even the exaggerated outcomes would be.