How Much Turf Does the Somali Government Really Control?

[Modbert]

How Much Turf Does the Somali Government Really Control? - By Elizabeth Dickinson | Foreign Policy

Imagine if the U.S. government only controlled a few blocks on either side of the White House, or if French troops securing the Élysée Palace were afraid to march down the Rue du Faubourg Saint-Honoré. It's a good bet your government is in trouble when it doesn't even control the district where the presidential palace is located. Welcome to Somalia. In the capital city of Mogadishu, the government is literally fighting for its life.

We all know the story: Somalia is the world's biggest no-go zone. The country's internationally supported government wouldn't last through the night were it not for a 7,000-strong African Union peacekeeping force that protects them, and civilian toll of the last two decades of conflict been catastrophic -- a quarter of the population has been uprooted by violence. In recent months, the story has gotten even worse thanks to two main Islamist militia groups, al-Shabab and Hizbul al-Islam, which control much of the country. Al Shabab professes allegiance to al Qaeda and should not be taken lightly: The group claimed responsibility for bombing two Ugandan restaurants packed with spectators watching the World Cup this summer.

The two main insurgent groups are intent on taking the capital (and as a second priority, each other). A Ramadan offensive by al-Shabab left 31 members of parliament dead. Then, on Sept. 20, a suicide bomber tried to attack the presidential palace, though he killed only himself. Three days later, street battles in the city's south (it's unclear where, exactly) left two dozen dead as insurgents attempted to gain control of strategic roads. No wonder every article about Somalia these days likes to trumpet the supposed fact that government forces control no more than a few blocks of the capital city.

Despite the ominous recent news, AMISOM says that the story is actually getting better, not worse, for the Somali government. And indeed, the August map above looks less bleak than the July map, which had far less area under government control.

Much more to read after the jump and it is certainly a well-worth read. Definitely gives a good deal of insight into just how much control the Somali Government has left.

 

[Jeremy]

What a sad, sad, cesspool of human filth.

 

[Kalam]

The government isn't going to win. At this rate, either the factions will remain in a deadlocked state or Ash-Shabaab will take over the rest of the country.

 

[Modbert]

The government isn't going to win. At this rate, either the factions will remain in a deadlocked state or Ash-Shabaab will take over the rest of the country.

How much longer do you think the government has in that case?

 

[Kalam]

The government isn't going to win. At this rate, either the factions will remain in a deadlocked state or Ash-Shabaab will take over the rest of the country.

How much longer do you think the government has in that case?

It's hard to say, but the rebels seem to be making steady progress. I also forgot to mention Somaliland, which could very possibly become a separate country.

This was the situation in July of last year (wiki):

This is the situation as of July, 2010:

Feds and allied factions are in blue, Islamist rebels are in green. It should be noted that Hizbul Islam and Ash-Shabaab had a falling out; I'm not sure what the current situation is between them. It's a shame that the Islamic Courts Union is no longer around. Ash-Shabaab, "the youth", was originally a youth movement within the ICU that became difficult for them to control and splintered off to form a far more radical and unscrupulous resistance movement. They have no business running a country.

 

[Jeremy]

Somali faction leaders as of July 2010.