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Germany Elections please look
- Thread starter ekrem
- Start date
- Thread starter
- #2
Figures will not change much. Only in 0,1 % steps till the end-result is being presented tonight...
What it shows is: CDU and FDP can not coalition, because they have not the majority.
So SPD + Grüne have not....
But SPD + Grüne +
FDP or PDS (Communists)
have the majority....
Man, this is crazy. CDU is only 2 % ahead of SPD.
Schröder has more sympathies in society. And 2% being ahead by CDU does not justify a Chancellor Merkel.
Perhaps it will be a major coalition, too. Between CDU and SPD...
But there is now a big Chance that Schröder remains Chancellor. He can Coalition with Greens + FDP or PDS.
Merkel really lost. It will be her carreer-end.
What it shows is: CDU and FDP can not coalition, because they have not the majority.
So SPD + Grüne have not....
But SPD + Grüne +
FDP or PDS (Communists)
have the majority....
Man, this is crazy. CDU is only 2 % ahead of SPD.
Schröder has more sympathies in society. And 2% being ahead by CDU does not justify a Chancellor Merkel.
Perhaps it will be a major coalition, too. Between CDU and SPD...
But there is now a big Chance that Schröder remains Chancellor. He can Coalition with Greens + FDP or PDS.
Merkel really lost. It will be her carreer-end.
padisha emperor
Senior Member
I believe that a lot of people , who traditionnaly voted for SPD, have vote this time for PDS. Then, a coalition SPD/PDS + Bundnis 90 Die Grüne would be not an illogical thing.
well, i'll wait for the 20h - 8 PM - news on TV, then, in one hour, to have all the informations (in France it is 7 PM)
Thanks Canavar for these informations about this election
well, i'll wait for the 20h - 8 PM - news on TV, then, in one hour, to have all the informations (in France it is 7 PM)
Thanks Canavar for these informations about this election
- Thread starter
- #4
19 : 07 Central european time +20:07 Turkey, - 13:07 Washington ( I think)
-----------------------> changes to the last prediction on 18: 22 o'clock
SPD 33,6 % --------> up - constant
CDU 35,2 % -------> down - constant
FDP 10,4 % --------> up
Greens 8,2 % --------> constant
PDS 8,5 % -----------> up
-----------------------> changes to the last prediction on 18: 22 o'clock
SPD 33,6 % --------> up - constant
CDU 35,2 % -------> down - constant
FDP 10,4 % --------> up
Greens 8,2 % --------> constant
PDS 8,5 % -----------> up
dilloduck
Diamond Member
American media is reporting that Merkel will most likely be the first female German Chancellor.
- Thread starter
- #6
on this sote you will find the latest figures, constantly updated till tonight...
on the homepage, you don't have to click anything..
http://www.n-tv.de/
on the homepage, you don't have to click anything..
http://www.n-tv.de/
dilloduck
Diamond Member
http://edition.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2002/germany.election/Schroeder wins re-election
German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has won a second term in office -- but only just -- after a campaign in which he ruled out participation in military action on Iraq. In the closest national election since World War II Schroeder's Social Democrats and their Green coalition partners won by about 10,000 votes
just found this---close one
recount anyone?
- Thread starter
- #8
dilloduck said:American media is reporting that Merkel will most likely be the first female German Chancellor.
situation is complicated....
Merkel with her Party have only 1,5 % more votes than Schröder's SPD...
based on this 1,5 % more votes than SPD, she will now confrontate all Parties with talks...
FDP (capitalists) said before they want to coalition with merkel...
But FDP + Merkel does not make majority in Parliament....
Merkel have to take Greens too in that CDU + FDP Coalition to win the majority....
But this is not that realistic, that greens will Coalition with FDP + Merkel.
The other thing is that Merkel will Coalition with FDP + PDS (Communists).
Which is unrealistic, too.
When Merkel can not make Majority, others have the right to form a majority....
Schröder's SPD with Greens + FDP make majority.
Schröder's SPD with Greens + PDS (Communists) make majority.
But in the end, you can say CDU lost. Because they are only 1,5 % ahead of SPD (Schröder), and they fail Majority.
Other thing is that Merkel (CDU) + SPD (Schröder ) will form Coalition with being Merkel the Chancelor...
This is unrealistic, too... Why sould Schröder go into Coalition with Merkel, when Merkel becomes Chanceloor?
He will gave all effords that he remains Chancellor.
When Merkel can not form a majority-coalition between 3 parties (CDU - FDP - Greenor PDS)
It is Schröders's chance to form a majority-coalition under 3-parties- (SPD - Greens - FDP or PDS)....
But in the end you can say when you remind of those predicted 45 % Merkel votes, that CDU fataly lost. Man, only 1,5 % ahead of Schröder....
Before elections they predicted minimum CDU being 8 - 10 % ahead of SPD (Schröder)
padisha emperor
Senior Member
in Germany the chief of the party who won the legislative election is elected.
So, if even merkel wuld have been elected, she would have a very short majority - or not a real majority - and the governement of Germany would have been very hard to lead.
Even with the system of the second voice to the "preference lists"
So, if even merkel wuld have been elected, she would have a very short majority - or not a real majority - and the governement of Germany would have been very hard to lead.
Even with the system of the second voice to the "preference lists"
dilloduck
Diamond Member
I guess in Americanese that translates into Schroeder won.
- Thread starter
- #11
dilloduck said:I guess in Americanese that translates into Schroeder won.
Schröder gave a live-conference saying:
"Those who went to elcetion to overthrow the current Chancellor have failed."
he meant CDU...
Schröder said, that he will tomorrrow make coalition talks, as CDU does.
But Schröder said: no coalition with PDS (communists)
actual figures show only a difference between 1,1 % between CDU and SPD....
so in Americanese it can be meant: "there is a high chance, that Schröder will remain Chancellor"....
But not because SPD won, but CDU lost.... it was predicted that CDU will ly 8-10 % ahead of SPD....
and now the differrence is shrinking and shrinking... Only 1,1 % at this time....
- Thread starter
- #14
nosarcasm said:more then likely it will end in a coalition between the CDU/SPD under
Merkel.
wow Merkel and her tax hike talk + other truthful talk that scared
voters nearly lost it.
counting of votes will remain 3-4 hours...
everything is open... SPD and CDU are only 1,1 % seperated... who knows, perhaps SPD will shrink that 1,1 % and SPD will become most-elected Party....
Schröder would only form a CDU / SPD - coalition when he remains Chancellor... And therefore SPD must be most-elected Party.... Only 1,1 % votes differ between SPD and CDU.
Otherwise he would not coalition with CDU because he has another door open to being Chancellor ....
This other door is coalition SPD + Greens + FDP
Guido Westerwelle said the FDP would under no circumstances have
a coalition with the SPD.
Schroeder said he would under no circumstances have a coaltion
with the Linke/Commies.
The Green Party announced that they are ready for opposition duty
because they and the SPD failed to gain a majority.
Both large parties might not like it but a great coalition is very likely.
In 1/2 hour the so called Elephant round is on tv where the leaders
of the parties meet and discuss on live tv. Hope that will
help. I ll told my friends to get back to me.
a coalition with the SPD.
Schroeder said he would under no circumstances have a coaltion
with the Linke/Commies.
The Green Party announced that they are ready for opposition duty
because they and the SPD failed to gain a majority.
Both large parties might not like it but a great coalition is very likely.
In 1/2 hour the so called Elephant round is on tv where the leaders
of the parties meet and discuss on live tv. Hope that will
help. I ll told my friends to get back to me.
Analysis: German power struggle
By Ray Furlong
BBC Berlin correspondent
With Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats failing to secure a governing majority in Sunday's election, Germany is rife with speculation about what coalition might be possible.
1. The conservative/liberal coalition
At the beginning of the campaign, it looked like a formality that this would be the result.
The conservatives (Christian Democrats/Christian Social Union - or CDU/CSU) were around 20 points ahead in the opinion polls, and seemed ready to cruise into power with the liberal Free Democrats (FDP), reviving the classic centre-right coalition that Helmut Kohl ruled with for 16 years.
This is what the conservative candidate for chancellor, Angela Merkel, would prefer, because the CDU/CSU and the FDP are close on a range of policy issues.
On the economy, they share the same broad agenda of reforming labour market law, tax, and the welfare system.
On foreign policy, they both stand for a return to a close alliance with the US.
There are differences between the two sides. The FDP has opposed the CDU/CSU plan for increasing sales tax.
It wants to be more radical than the conservatives in reforming the economy, and also has a stronger attachment to civil liberties that could clash with the CDU/CSU's tough stance on internal security.
2. The Grand Coalition
Because the CDU/CSU appears not to have done well enough to form a majority with the FDP, it may have to negotiate a "Grand Coalition" with Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's Social Democrats (SPD).
On a regional level this is not an unusual alliance. The two parties already run regional governments together in Saxony, Schleswig-Holstein, Bremen and Mecklenburg-Pomerania.
PRE-POLL BUNDESTAG
1. Social Democrats (SPD): 249
2. Christian Democrats/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU): 247
3. Greens: 55
4. Free Democrats (FDP): 47
5. Others: 3
But at national level it has only happened once - in 1966-69. Historians are divided on the results, but in any case it is hard to draw meaningful parallels between now and then.
On policy, there are areas the two parties could agree on.
Mrs Merkel's idea of raising VAT by 2% in order to reduce subsidiary wage costs has been heavily attacked by the SPD in the campaign, but senior SPD leaders including Mr Schroeder himself have in the past publicly pondered the idea.
The two parties have also agreed during the life of the current parliament on a number of issues. The CDU/CSU voted for the government's Agenda 2010 labour market and welfare reforms, for instance.
They also agreed at a so-called "Jobs Summit" earlier this year on tax cuts.
But there is still the fear that neither side will really get what it wants.
They each have very different concepts of how to reform the health service, for instance. It is likely that here they would have to fall back on a compromise that they already negotiated in 2003.
The conservatives would be unlikely to get their proposals to relax protection from dismissal laws past the Social Democrats.
The same goes for their plans to further cut income tax and cut back trade union power.
Germany's economic reforms have sparked heated debate
For their part, the SPD might prove an unreliable partner. Mr Schroeder called this early election because he had lost the support of the party's left for further reforms - it is hard to imagine them supporting changes proposed by Mrs Merkel that go even further.
The SPD would also have to strongly emphasise its left-wing credentials in any Grand Coalition, because the new left party Die Linke will capitalise on reforms it deems "unsocial" to score political points.
But while business leaders have warned that a Grand Coalition will be a do-nothing government, some observers say it could still move reforms forward, albeit at a slower pace than a conservative/liberal coalition.
3. The Traffic Light Coalition
This is something that has been increasingly talked of in recent days, and might enable Mr Schroeder to remain chancellor.
It would combine three parties whose colours match those of a traffic light: the SPD (red), the FDP (yellow) and the Greens.
Chancellor Schroeder managed to revive the SPD's fortunes
It has never existed before, although the Social Democrats ruled with the FDP in 1969-82.
The thinking behind this coalition is that the FDP would be desperate enough for power after seven years in opposition that they might be persuaded to join.
But there are huge difficulties.
The FDP's radical economic reform policies would have little place with the SPD and the Greens.
At best, the party could hope to influence the debate while pushing forward some if its civil liberties agenda.
FDP ideas about relaxing rules on genetic research or introducing GM crops to Germany would also meet stiff resistance.
The FDP leader, Guido Westerwelle, has ruled out this option. On a personal level he is also known to have very poor relations with leading Greens, including Joschka Fischer.
Most speculation about this coalition includes an internal party putsch against Mr Westerwelle - but even then the policy differences make it a tough bet. It would be a fascinating coalition to watch in action!
4. Red-Red-Green
Like the Traffic Light, this coalition would enable the current government to continue while bringing an extra member - in this case the new Left party Die Linke.
What speaks for this coalition is that all the parties describe themselves as "left". But in practice there is much that divides them.
Die Linke is a mix of reformed East German communists (the PDS) who have always opposed Chancellor Schroeder's reforms, and former SPD members who left the party because they regarded Mr Schroeder's policies as a betrayal of their principles.
Foremost among these is Oskar Lafontaine. Once the leader of the SPD, he unexpectedly resigned from his party post and from the position of finance minister in 1999.
Mr Schroeder has not spoken to him since, and rarely even refers to him by name.
Another problem with Red-Red-Green is that many people in the SPD and Greens, particularly from the former East Germany, could not stomach working with the PDS.
On the other side, Die Linke itself has said it wants to be parliamentary opposition - only aspiring to a role in a ruling coalition at a later date.
5. Other options
There are other options, although they are considered less likely and not discussed as much.
For instance the CDU/CSU could conceivably team up with the Greens, possibly also with the FDP. Some Greens and conservatives have spoken about this, but it is considered one for the next generation.
There is also the idea of Die Linke tolerating a minority SPD-Green government, something that has also been ruled out, but is perhaps more likely than a Merkel/Fischer tandem.
Politicians on all sides are very fond of ruling out anything other than the most obvious constellations - CDU/CSU with the FDP, or Red-Green continuing.
But the opinion polls suggest these may not be possible. After the elections, politicians may be forced into some creative thinking.
from the BBC
By Ray Furlong
BBC Berlin correspondent
With Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats failing to secure a governing majority in Sunday's election, Germany is rife with speculation about what coalition might be possible.
1. The conservative/liberal coalition
At the beginning of the campaign, it looked like a formality that this would be the result.
The conservatives (Christian Democrats/Christian Social Union - or CDU/CSU) were around 20 points ahead in the opinion polls, and seemed ready to cruise into power with the liberal Free Democrats (FDP), reviving the classic centre-right coalition that Helmut Kohl ruled with for 16 years.
This is what the conservative candidate for chancellor, Angela Merkel, would prefer, because the CDU/CSU and the FDP are close on a range of policy issues.
On the economy, they share the same broad agenda of reforming labour market law, tax, and the welfare system.
On foreign policy, they both stand for a return to a close alliance with the US.
There are differences between the two sides. The FDP has opposed the CDU/CSU plan for increasing sales tax.
It wants to be more radical than the conservatives in reforming the economy, and also has a stronger attachment to civil liberties that could clash with the CDU/CSU's tough stance on internal security.
2. The Grand Coalition
Because the CDU/CSU appears not to have done well enough to form a majority with the FDP, it may have to negotiate a "Grand Coalition" with Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's Social Democrats (SPD).
On a regional level this is not an unusual alliance. The two parties already run regional governments together in Saxony, Schleswig-Holstein, Bremen and Mecklenburg-Pomerania.
PRE-POLL BUNDESTAG
1. Social Democrats (SPD): 249
2. Christian Democrats/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU): 247
3. Greens: 55
4. Free Democrats (FDP): 47
5. Others: 3
But at national level it has only happened once - in 1966-69. Historians are divided on the results, but in any case it is hard to draw meaningful parallels between now and then.
On policy, there are areas the two parties could agree on.
Mrs Merkel's idea of raising VAT by 2% in order to reduce subsidiary wage costs has been heavily attacked by the SPD in the campaign, but senior SPD leaders including Mr Schroeder himself have in the past publicly pondered the idea.
The two parties have also agreed during the life of the current parliament on a number of issues. The CDU/CSU voted for the government's Agenda 2010 labour market and welfare reforms, for instance.
They also agreed at a so-called "Jobs Summit" earlier this year on tax cuts.
But there is still the fear that neither side will really get what it wants.
They each have very different concepts of how to reform the health service, for instance. It is likely that here they would have to fall back on a compromise that they already negotiated in 2003.
The conservatives would be unlikely to get their proposals to relax protection from dismissal laws past the Social Democrats.
The same goes for their plans to further cut income tax and cut back trade union power.
Germany's economic reforms have sparked heated debate
For their part, the SPD might prove an unreliable partner. Mr Schroeder called this early election because he had lost the support of the party's left for further reforms - it is hard to imagine them supporting changes proposed by Mrs Merkel that go even further.
The SPD would also have to strongly emphasise its left-wing credentials in any Grand Coalition, because the new left party Die Linke will capitalise on reforms it deems "unsocial" to score political points.
But while business leaders have warned that a Grand Coalition will be a do-nothing government, some observers say it could still move reforms forward, albeit at a slower pace than a conservative/liberal coalition.
3. The Traffic Light Coalition
This is something that has been increasingly talked of in recent days, and might enable Mr Schroeder to remain chancellor.
It would combine three parties whose colours match those of a traffic light: the SPD (red), the FDP (yellow) and the Greens.
Chancellor Schroeder managed to revive the SPD's fortunes
It has never existed before, although the Social Democrats ruled with the FDP in 1969-82.
The thinking behind this coalition is that the FDP would be desperate enough for power after seven years in opposition that they might be persuaded to join.
But there are huge difficulties.
The FDP's radical economic reform policies would have little place with the SPD and the Greens.
At best, the party could hope to influence the debate while pushing forward some if its civil liberties agenda.
FDP ideas about relaxing rules on genetic research or introducing GM crops to Germany would also meet stiff resistance.
The FDP leader, Guido Westerwelle, has ruled out this option. On a personal level he is also known to have very poor relations with leading Greens, including Joschka Fischer.
Most speculation about this coalition includes an internal party putsch against Mr Westerwelle - but even then the policy differences make it a tough bet. It would be a fascinating coalition to watch in action!
4. Red-Red-Green
Like the Traffic Light, this coalition would enable the current government to continue while bringing an extra member - in this case the new Left party Die Linke.
What speaks for this coalition is that all the parties describe themselves as "left". But in practice there is much that divides them.
Die Linke is a mix of reformed East German communists (the PDS) who have always opposed Chancellor Schroeder's reforms, and former SPD members who left the party because they regarded Mr Schroeder's policies as a betrayal of their principles.
Foremost among these is Oskar Lafontaine. Once the leader of the SPD, he unexpectedly resigned from his party post and from the position of finance minister in 1999.
Mr Schroeder has not spoken to him since, and rarely even refers to him by name.
Another problem with Red-Red-Green is that many people in the SPD and Greens, particularly from the former East Germany, could not stomach working with the PDS.
On the other side, Die Linke itself has said it wants to be parliamentary opposition - only aspiring to a role in a ruling coalition at a later date.
5. Other options
There are other options, although they are considered less likely and not discussed as much.
For instance the CDU/CSU could conceivably team up with the Greens, possibly also with the FDP. Some Greens and conservatives have spoken about this, but it is considered one for the next generation.
There is also the idea of Die Linke tolerating a minority SPD-Green government, something that has also been ruled out, but is perhaps more likely than a Merkel/Fischer tandem.
Politicians on all sides are very fond of ruling out anything other than the most obvious constellations - CDU/CSU with the FDP, or Red-Green continuing.
But the opinion polls suggest these may not be possible. After the elections, politicians may be forced into some creative thinking.
from the BBC
So who do you think will win, nosarcasm?
Adam's Apple
Senior Member
- Apr 25, 2004
- 4,092
- 449
- 48
Analysis of German election results. Voters chose gridlock over reform.
Der Stillstand
By John Fund, Opinion Journal
September 19, 2005
BERLIN--It was a bad omen when Angela Merkel, the candidate of the conservative Christian Democratic Union chose the Rolling Stones' "Angie" as her campaign theme song. It is actually a sad song about a breakup. "All the dreams we held so close seemed to all go up in smoke" goes one line--and that's pretty much what happened to the CDU in yesterday's elections, as Social Democrat Gerhard Schroeder, who has served as Germany's Bill Clinton-like Chancellor for the last seven years, staged a remarkable comeback.
The muddled result, with neither major party able to form a stable parliamentary majority, means that Germany will not be taking decisive action anytime soon to reform its unwieldy welfare state, which has helped bring it 11% unemployment and zero economic growth That will not be good for the world. Germany, the third-largest economy in the world, represents 30% of the output of the European Union. The "sick man of Europe" is likely to remain bedridden for a while longer.
http://www.opinionjournal.com/diary/?id=110007280
Der Stillstand
By John Fund, Opinion Journal
September 19, 2005
BERLIN--It was a bad omen when Angela Merkel, the candidate of the conservative Christian Democratic Union chose the Rolling Stones' "Angie" as her campaign theme song. It is actually a sad song about a breakup. "All the dreams we held so close seemed to all go up in smoke" goes one line--and that's pretty much what happened to the CDU in yesterday's elections, as Social Democrat Gerhard Schroeder, who has served as Germany's Bill Clinton-like Chancellor for the last seven years, staged a remarkable comeback.
The muddled result, with neither major party able to form a stable parliamentary majority, means that Germany will not be taking decisive action anytime soon to reform its unwieldy welfare state, which has helped bring it 11% unemployment and zero economic growth That will not be good for the world. Germany, the third-largest economy in the world, represents 30% of the output of the European Union. The "sick man of Europe" is likely to remain bedridden for a while longer.
http://www.opinionjournal.com/diary/?id=110007280
padisha emperor
Senior Member
I don't really believe in the black/green/yellow coalition (CDU-FDP-Grüne), the Grüne are against nuceal, and CDU is favorable to it. (plus other differences between them).
But now, it seems that an alliance between CDU and SPD is maybe possible, without Schrödder and Merkel. (like in the 60's).
It would be CDU-FDP-Grüne , or SPD-Grüne-PDS , or SPD-Grüne-FDP, or CDU-SPD.
what a mess, anyway !
But now, it seems that an alliance between CDU and SPD is maybe possible, without Schrödder and Merkel. (like in the 60's).
It would be CDU-FDP-Grüne , or SPD-Grüne-PDS , or SPD-Grüne-FDP, or CDU-SPD.
what a mess, anyway !
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