Germany Elections please look

[ekrem]

nothing less or more than total chaos in the biggest european country.

 

[CSM]

As a US citizen, I find German politics hard to follow so I can only imagine how hard it must be for any European to follow US politics.

 

[theim]

As a US citizen, I find German politics hard to follow so I can only imagine how hard it must be for any European to follow US politics.

From what I can understand, it uses the parliamentary system. People vote for parties, not candidates. Example:

There are four political parties named A,B,C, and D. Say the vote totals on election day break down like this:

A-40%
B-35%
C-20%
D-5%

A gets 40% of the seats in the legislature, B gets 35% of the seats, etc. As for who gets to be actual head of state, "coalitions" need to be made to form a majority of the legislature. In this instance, A can partner up with C to gain a 60% majority, or B can partner with C for a 55% majority. The party in the majority coalition with the greatest percentage of votes "wins". The leader of the party at that time becomes Prime Minister/Chancellor.

Again, Europeans are free to correct me, this is just how I had it explained to me.

And on a side note I think you will find everything is more simple with only 2 parties.

 

[ekrem]

From what I can understand, it uses the parliamentary system. People vote for parties, not candidates. Example:

There are four political parties named A,B,C, and D. Say the vote totals on election day break down like this:

A-40%
B-35%
C-20%
D-5%

A gets 40% of the seats in the legislature, B gets 35% of the seats, etc. As for who gets to be actual head of state, "coalitions" need to be made to form a majority of the legislature. In this instance, A can partner up with C to gain a 60% majority, or B can partner with C for a 55% majority. The party in the majority coalition with the greatest percentage of votes "wins". The leader of the party at that time becomes Prime Minister/Chancellor.

Again, Europeans are free to correct me, this is just how I had it explained to me.

And on a side note I think you will find everything is more simple with only 2 parties.

yes so it is...


But this time there have not been a clear direction by the voter.

CDU have with 0,9 % the biggest votes.

And it is tradition that the biggest elected Party makes the Chancellor.


But this time it is different as, CDU has not the majority in Parliament-seats.
Even with their natural coalition-Partner FDP, they miss the majority of parliament seats.
In the past always the biggest elected party had a majority in parliament seats.
Now it is different.

Parliament majority is 307 seats.
CDU has 225 seats. her coalition party FDP has 60 seats.
They miss majority.


Schröder has 222 seats.




This is the problem. Now who gets the Majprity of Parliament seats by different coalitions with minimum 307 parliament seats, he makes the Chancellor.


so this is the first time, germanys biggest elected party can not make parliament majority.

 

[Adam's Apple]

When you said it was a mess, Padisha, a Washington Post editorial agrees with you. If interested, go to http://www.realclearpolitics.com and scroll down to the "Editorials" section listed under Wednesday, September 21. Click on "A Mess in Germany." (Sorry I can't give you a url. Paid subscription site won't let me bring it to the board, and it's too long to post entire article.)

 

[nosarcasm]

the CDU/CSU are technically two parties. Since 1949 the SPD never
mentioned it, but now with alot of chutzpe Schroeder claims
the SPD is the biggest party.

The CSU only is up for election in Bavaria. :halo:

I am amazed by the amount of conservatives that advocate
a coalition with the Green party and FDP . The Jamaica model.

In the end it might become a powersharing model like used before in Israel
where each party has the chancellory for 2 years.

 

[Annie]

When you said it was a mess, Padisha, a Washington Post editorial agrees with you. If interested, go to http://www.realclearpolitics.com and scroll down to the "Editorials" section listed under Wednesday, September 21. Click on "A Mess in Germany." (Sorry I can't give you a url. Paid subscription site won't let me bring it to the board, and it's too long to post entire article.)

Here we go:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/20/AR2005092001517.html

A Mess in Germany


Wednesday, September 21, 2005; Page A22

THE MOST important German election in decades has produced a dismal result for Germany, the European Union and the transatlantic alliance. As expected, Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder of the Social Democrats failed in his attempt to win a new mandate, but his principal opponent, Angela Merkel of the Christian Democratic Party, also did not win enough support to form a government. The two big German parties combined received the lowest percentage of votes in 50 years, and the balance of power in Parliament will be held by three smaller factions -- one of which, the new Left Party, is a noxious mix of anti-globalization populists and former East Bloc communists.

Mr. Schroeder has further fouled this messy situation with arrogant and undemocratic behavior. Though he finished in second place with 34 percent of the vote, and his coalition lost 33 of the 306 seats it held in the Bundestag, the chancellor loudly claimed victory and is trying to bully his way back into office. German commentators are calling his power play "delusional" and "grotesque," but the political situation is so unsettled that its success cannot be ruled out.

It's difficult to imagine a worse outcome to the election than a new term for Mr. Schroeder, whose habitual demagoguery and opportunism have poisoned not only German politics but also the European Union and U.S.-German relations. Yet the other possibilities aren't much better. The most likely is a "grand coalition" between the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats that would exclude Mr. Schroeder, and possibly also Ms. Merkel, who is trying to be the first woman and the first citizen of the former East Germany to become chancellor. Alternatively, one of the large parties could create a coalition including a small party on the opposite side of the political spectrum, alignments as bizarre as the nicknames -- "stoplight" and "Jamaica" -- they have been given.

Whatever the final result, the chances that Germany will continue the economic reforms that Mr. Schroeder cautiously began don't seem great. Both major candidates seem to have been punished by voters for advocating change: Mr. Schroeder for his half-steps and Ms. Merkel for promising more. The two parties together might agree to force through the further reforms they know the country needs, but it is just as likely they will compromise by doing nothing. It also seems unlikely that a weak German government will support needed reforms for the European Union, which itself is reeling from French voters' rejection of a new constitution in May.

American conservatives and internationalists might be tempted to take quiet satisfaction from the political disarray in the two big European states that have worked hardest in the past five years to thwart U.S. policies and establish Europe as a rival power to the United States. That would be shortsighted. In fact, Mr. Schroeder and his French ally, Jacques Chirac, were never likely to succeed in creating a European counterweight, and the weakness of Germany and France will only make them less able to support the United States in key strategic matters on which there is a transatlantic consensus, such as preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons. About the best that Americans, and Germans, can hope for is that the tenure of the new government will be relatively brief -- and that the next election will produce a more decisive result.

 

[nosarcasm]

my prediction


The stalemate in Germant will not be resolved by an ampel coaliton ( a three party coalition)

Why not you may ask.

The Green party's leader Joschka Fischer is resigning from top office
and said he is ready to be silent as an MP and sit in the back as
part of the opposition.


The FDP (pro economy party) has a hard time joining with the greens
and no way would accept the commies .

The CSU part of the CDU (conservatives) who only exist in Bavaria has
made it clear that a coalition with the Greens would mean they split
with the CDU.

That leaves the Grand Coalition of SPD and CDU/CSU.

The Israli model of 2 years of chancellor for the CDU followed by 2 years
of chancellor for the SPD is the most likely outcome.


The alternative is the SPD and Green go into a minority government
tolerated by the Communist. (NOT ACCEPTABLE AT ALL !!!!)
If that happens I ll become an American citizen, period. (thats not a threat :halo: )

 

[padisha emperor]

"Jamaica Koalition" would'nt go on, I can't imagine Bundnis 90 die Grünen with FDP and CDU-CSU.


Same for the "Ampel Koalition", with FDP SPD and Grünen. FDP would'nt azcept, I think.

I don't imagine SPD+Grünen with the Linkspartei-PDS. The neocommunists wouldn't accept to be with SPD, and probably same in the other way.

well, the "Grosse Koalition" would be probably the good one, it have been already, during the 60's, with Willy Brandt as BK, from SPD.

And now, 4 Bundesländer have a such system of "grosse Koalition", and it works quite well I believe, even if in some cases the parties' leaders were not really crazy about this idea SPD+CDU, it works.

i've look also on the map : Bayern : CSU (normal), but only the south voted for CDU (Rheinland-Pfalz, Baden-Wurtemberg, Sachsen - except Dresden - ), the other Länder have vote in majority for SPD (all the north from Hessen to Schleswig-Holtsein, plus Saarland).

So, it can be important with the choice of the next BK, if there is the "grosse Koalition".

Merkel says she is the BK because her party, CDU, won - only 3 seats more - and Schröder says Merkel did'nt win.

Well, wait and see.

 

[Johnney]

so whats all that mean in english?

 

[Annie]

so whats all that mean in english?

That it's going to be quite awhile before anyone is really speaking for Germany. They've got to cobble together some kind of ruling government-no one got enough votes. It will take I believe at least 3 parties to do so.

Things are changing, I think the German people know that, but they were not quite ready to step out to the plate. Schroeder was shrewed when he called for an early vote.

 

[padisha emperor]

Johnney, don't know how the US medias do for this information, but in FRance we use both the french and german terms. So, to be the more faithfull as possible to the party's name, or something else, I put them in german. But nothing that you can't understand.