Almost 1.5 Million Difference Between Govt Jobs Reports- Is the Govt Fudging the Numbers?

[johngaltshrugged]

It looks the govt may be pushing fake numbers to prop up the false narrative that the economy is strong & people are happy.
The jobs report came out & said we added 372K new jobs in June.
However, the more detailed Household Survey showed we lost 315K jobs, a difference of 687K jobs.
Plus, it turns out the labor participation rate hasn't changed, both full time (70K) & part time (462K) jobs were lost while any gains were strictly from already employed persons taking 2nd jobs to make ends meet.

Would our govt lie to us like this to continue gaslighting the sheeple & prop up Dems before the midterms?
They wouldn't be able to if Pravda wasn't a bunch soulless minions.

Something Snaps In The US Labor Market: Full, Part-Time Workers Plunge As Multiple Jobholders Soar​

On one hand, the closely followed establishment survey came in red hot, and despite dropping modestly from May, it still printed some 100K above the median consensus expectation, at 372K vs the median consensus of 268K...




... and with wages in line with expectations, rising 0.3% M/M or 5.1% Y/Y, it was enough for many to conclude that calls of a recession are premature because, after all, you can't enter a recession when jobs are rising by almost 400K.

True... but a problem emerges when looking at the more detailed, if less closely watched, Household survey. Here, unlike the Establishment Survey, the June jobs change was actually a striking 315K drop, and after the April plunge of 353K, the June drop was actually the biggest going back to the March 2020 crash.



And since the Household survey also feeds other closely watched ratios, such as the labor force participation rate, it explains why despite the apparent "surge" in June jobs, the LFP declined and is now unchanged since January.



So what's going on here? Well, starting at the top, we find the following discrepancy:

• Establishment Survey: +372K
• Household Survey: -315K

But things only get worse after that, because if one goes back a little more, one finds that something appears to have broken a few months ago, around March, when the Establishment Survey kept on rising unperturbed, while the Household Survey hit some unexplained brick wall, and hasn't moved at all.



In fact, since March, the Establishment Survey shows a gain of 1.124 million jobs while the Household Survey shows an employment loss of 347K!



But wait, there's more, because digging in even deeper, we find that this drop in Household Survey employment is the result of both full-time and part-time jobs. In fact, as shown below, since March, the US has lost 70K full-time employees and 462K part-time employees.



This trend has persisted into June, when according to the BLS, the US labor force saw a 152K drop in full-time workers and a 326K drop in part-timers (source). The offset? Multiple jobholders, or people who have more than one job.

As shown below, while the number of total employees (per the Household Survey) has stagnated, the number of multiple jobholders has been growing steadily, hitting a new post-covid high in June of 7,541 million.



The increase for June? 239K, which stands in stark contrast to the decline in individual holders of single part-time and full-time jobs.

Something Snaps In The US Labor Market: Full, Part-Time Workers Plunge As Multiple Jobholders Soar | ZeroHedge

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[Maxdeath]

Of course the government is making things look better then they actually are.

 

[JustAnotherNut]

Well it isn't the first time they fudged the numbers.......remember the last election? Covid cases & deaths?? Just to name a few.....

 

[1srelluc]

I had not kept-up with the labor participation rate figuring it was getting better as the economy came online till I saw the numbers yesterday.....I was like WTF?

The dems lie about everything else so I'd not be surprised.....It won't matter though, I look for the bottom to drop out of the job market in a few months anyway when demand drops as the fed tries getting a very belated handle on inflation.

I have a thought that the Christmas season is going to be a very lean one for a lot of folks.

 

[Dekster]

I had not kept-up with the labor participation rate figuring it was getting better as the economy came online till I saw the numbers yesterday.....I was like WTF?

The dems lie about everything else so I'd not be surprised.....It won't matter though, I look for the bottom to drop out of the job market in a few months anyway when demand drops as the fed tries getting a very belated handle on inflation.

I have a thought that the Christmas season is going to be a very lean one for a lot of folks.

Christmas will be lean for many but the multiple job holders isn't a gasping, phlegm-spewing-canary in the coal mine. The Census did a study a few years back that looked at them and was surprised to find that there was a strong correlation between education levels and holding multiple jobs. Specifically, the more educated you are, the more likely you are to hold multiple jobs. These are often things like CPA's who teach accounting at the community college, lawyers who have multiple businesses they draw checks from, a teacher who does a summer hobby job, etc etc. Among the poorer, less educated classes, it is more likely to be a mom who works as she can, or an empty-nester woman looking to fill her day.

 

[candycorn]

Wow, another right wing conspiracy theory.