2010 Correction Election Has Started

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Sinatra, Jan 5, 2010.

  1. Sinatra
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    Sinatra Senior Member

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    Momentum against the Democrats and favoring Republicans is fully underway now as we head into a pivotal midterm election cycle.

    A poll released just an hour ago shows Democrats now trailing Republicans by nearly 10 points in the generic ballot. When Obama took the oath of office, Democrats enjoyed a seven point lead in the same ballot - indicating nearly a 17 point shift toward the Republican side currently vs a little less than one year ago.

    It is the GOP favorability among Independent voters that perhaps is most remarkable - with Republicans enjoying a 48% to 17% margin over their Democrats in the generic ballot. If such figures hold by the time the upcomingNovember elections are held, 2010 will prove among the greatest correction elections in modern history.



    Date
    Dem
    GOP

    01-03-10
    35%
    44%

    12-27-09
    38%
    43%

    12-20-09
    36%
    44%

    12-13-09
    37%
    44%

    12-06-09
    39%
    43%

    11-29-09
    37%
    44%

    11-22-09
    37%
    44%

    11-15-09
    38%
    44%

    11-08-09
    37%
    43%

    11-01-09
    38%
    42%




    Generic Congressional Ballot - Rasmussen Reports™
     
  2. theDoctorisIn
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    theDoctorisIn Senior Mod Staff Member Senior USMB Moderator

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    "Generic" congressional polling means nothing at all. By all means, if it makes you feel better about yourself, believe it. If you want to convince other people (or even just yourself) that republicans are going to take back congress, show me actual polling on actual candidates who are up for re-election.

    No one votes genericly.
     
  3. Sinatra
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    Sinatra Senior Member

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    In December, the number of Americans identifying themselves as Democrats fell to the lowest level recorded in more than seven years of monthly tracking by Rasmussen Reports.

    Currently, 35.5% of American adults view themselves as Democrats. That’s down from 36.0 a month ago and from 37.8% in October. Prior to December, the lowest total ever recorded for Democrats was 35.9%, a figure that was reached twice in 2005. See the History of Party Trends from January 2004 to the present.



    Partisan Trends - Rasmussen Reports™
     
  4. Sinatra
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    Sinatra Senior Member

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    Swing states may be on the move


    The voter sentiments that put Democrats on top in 2008 could turn against the party in November's midterm. Obama's proposals for healthcare, the economy and immigration could deepen divisions.

    ...That personal assessment may be part of the reason Reid faces a tough reelection fight in November despite 27 years in Congress. But other aspects of Reid's challenge raise far broader political questions -- questions that reach all the way to President Obama and Democrats in general:

    As they seek to retain control of Congress, Democrats are finding that voter sentiments that gave the party its victory margins here and in other swing states in 2008 could turn against them for 2010.



    Swing states may be on the move - latimes.com
     
  5. Polk
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    Polk Classic

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    Down from it's peak, but still miles ahead of the Republicans.
    Pollster.com: National Party Identification (ALL ADULTS)
     
  6. Mr. Peepers
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    Mr. Peepers Senior Member

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    Um, haven't you learned? Polls mean absolutely nothing except they asked a random group of people a question. I know I sure as hell have never been polled for anything...
     
  7. rightwinger
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    rightwinger Paid Messageboard Poster Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    Whew!

    You had me worried until I saw it was a Rassmussen poll
     
  8. Sinatra
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    Sinatra Senior Member

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    Great graphic!

    Both Republicans and Independents are polling UP, while Democrats clearly moving DOWN.

    As stated, the 2010 Correction Election has started!!!!
     
  9. Article 15
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    Article 15 Dr. House slayer

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    Notice that Rassmussen polls are about a +10 in republican self identification compared to the rest of the polls.
     
  10. Sinatra
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    Sinatra Senior Member

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    Actually not true if doing a more apples-to-apples polling comparison. "All Adults" vs "Registered and/or Likely Voters". Rasmussen is in line with other polls when similar polling comparisons are done. And the trend is clear - Democrats are in decline, Republicans are gaining in numbers, and the Independents remain the crucial deciding factor.

    Thanks for the input though!


    Pollster.com: National Party Identification (REGISTERED & LIKELY VOTERS ONLY)
     

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