Yet Another Election Model Points To Big Romney Win

[mudwhistle]

A University of Colorado model that has correctly picked every presidential election since 1980 picked Romney to handedly beat Obama 320-218....with 52.9 percent of the popular vote.

University of Colorado model points to big Romney win | The Daily Caller

Using data from today's economy Romney wins big. If the economy improves in the next couple of months this changes things.

The media is desperately trying say the economy is improving, however they aren't big on specifics. They just say things look promising.

So basically, don't believe anything you hear, because it's designed to discourage Republican voters.

 

[AceRothstein]

This thing again? It has only been posted on this site 10,000 times since it was released. I'll guarantee they are wrong about Minnesota, Mittens isn't winning there.

What were the other models pointing to a Romney win?

 

[flacaltenn]

I'm not placing bets on this horserace --- but I KNOW employment isn't gonna radically change and the market is pretty dam fragile.. You know --- It's not Dow and S&P that matters. It's the KIND of NEW listings that we've gotten in the past 6 years or so.. Nothing but Groupons and LinkedIns and crappy gimmicks. THAT --- is the primary reason the economy is staying contracted.

Anyway -- I'm voting Libertarian this time, but I've pondered about this and I think Mitt will pick up points in the debate. He's fresh off the 95 (seems like) Repub primary debates. PLENTY of recent experience there.. Whilst Dear Leader leads a life sheltered by his Press Sec and the media. He's not used to being cross examined by someone who's been tested in debate.

Because of THAT --- I think if Romney doesn't kill himself in the debates, even the horserace media will show him ahead after debate 1 or debate 2.

 

[mudwhistle]

This thing again? It has only been posted on this site 10,000 times since it was released. I'll guarantee they are wrong about Minnesota, Mittens isn't winning there.

What were the other models pointing to a Romney win?

Contrary to media reports Obama is losing.

 

[LoneLaugher]

Ooooooooooooooo-kaaaaaaayyyyyyyy!

 

[Old Rocks]

President Obama 3.1

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama

President Obama 7.9 Governor Romney -0.4

RealClearPolitics - Obama & Romney: Favorable/Unfavorable

President Obama 247 Governor Romney 191

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

Toss up states;

Colorado President Obama 2.0

Florida President Obama 2.1

Iowa President Obama 2.3

Nevada President Obama 2.5

New Hampshire President 2.3

North Carolina Governor Romney 4.8

Ohio President Obama 4.8

Virginia President Obama 4.7


Governor Romney needs 79 electorial votes to get to 270. He has 15 at present.

President Obama needs 23 electorial votes to get to 270. He has 33 at present.

Not looking good for Romney.

 

[candycorn]

This thing again? It has only been posted on this site 10,000 times since it was released. I'll guarantee they are wrong about Minnesota, Mittens isn't winning there.

What were the other models pointing to a Romney win?

Contrary to media reports Obama is losing.

Care to make a wager? No? Didn't think so.

 

[konradv]

Computer models?!?! Aren't those the same things righties pooh-pooh everytime AGW gets brought up?

 

[Ragnar]

Computer models?!?! Aren't those the same things righties pooh-pooh everytime AGW gets brought up?

Yeah. Probably has something to do with the 30 year history of correct election guesses verses the random number generator that is climate computer modeling. Probably.

 

[Ragnar]

Forgot to add, I too predict a Romney win (for today anyway) but I think the map is over-generous. When I play with the maps I'm still giving President Obama Pa, MN and sometimes VA. However, I'm not yet willing to concede NV, NM or CO to the "Preezy".

Below is a handy link to play with the map including a fantastic history of U.S. elections going back to 1789...

2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College


Have fun political geeks!

 

[NYcarbineer]

All this certainty on the right and yet no one had the courage to take my offer of a thousand dollar bet, that I offered repeatedly.

I think the children around here are gutless blowhards.

 

[Ragnar]

All this certainty on the right and yet no one had the courage to take my offer of a thousand dollar bet, that I offered repeatedly.

I think the children around here are gutless blowhards.

I imagine that's partly because of the belief that a lot can still happen between now and election day but mostly because no one believes you have a thousand dollars.

 

[courseofhistory]

9/20/12 PM

9/20/12 AM

9/19/12

LINK

By the end of Wednesday, however, it was clear that the preponderance of the evidence favored Mr. Obama. He got strong polls in Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin and Virginia, all from credible pollsters. Mr. Obama, who had been slipping in our forecast recently, rebounded to a 75.2 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, up from 72.9 percent on Tuesday.

The most unambiguously bearish sign for Mr. Romney are the poor polls he has been getting in swing states from pollsters that use a thorough methodology and include cellphones in their samples.

There have been 16 such polls published in the top 10 tipping point states since the Democratic convention ended, all conducted among likely voters. Mr. Obama has held the lead in all 16 of these polls. With the exception of two polls in Colorado — where Mr. Obama’s polling has been quite middling recently — all put him ahead by at least four points. On average, he led by 5.8 percentage points between these 16 surveys.

NOWCAST

94.8% Obama 5.2% Romney (chances of winning)

LINK

 

[mudwhistle]

This thing again? It has only been posted on this site 10,000 times since it was released. I'll guarantee they are wrong about Minnesota, Mittens isn't winning there.

What were the other models pointing to a Romney win?

We're getting tired of you folks siting Democrat oversampled polls showing Obama winning.

Yesterday they were tied 47% to 47% even with the oversampling.

I guess the 47% are still sticking with Santa Obama.......at least until they hear that he feels he can't change Washington from within.

 

[candycorn]

This thing again? It has only been posted on this site 10,000 times since it was released. I'll guarantee they are wrong about Minnesota, Mittens isn't winning there.

What were the other models pointing to a Romney win?

Contrary to media reports Obama is losing.

Care to make a wager? No? Didn't think so.

C'mon muddy....you've got a slick little computer program on your side. All I have is hope and change. Basically you're risking nothing.

Obama wins, you stop posting.
Romney wins, I stop posting.

Simple enough?


Get on your tap shoes...

 

[rightwinger]

A University of Colorado model that has correctly picked every presidential election since 1980 picked Romney to handedly beat Obama 320-218....with 52.9 percent of the popular vote.

University of Colorado model points to big Romney win | The Daily Caller

Using data from today's economy Romney wins big. If the economy improves in the next couple of months this changes things.

The media is desperately trying say the economy is improving, however they aren't big on specifics. They just say things look promising.

So basically, don't believe anything you hear, because it's designed to discourage Republican voters.

Looks like that model is about to be blown out of the water


Back to the drawing board University of Colorado

 

[mudwhistle]

Contrary to media reports Obama is losing.

Care to make a wager? No? Didn't think so.

C'mon muddy....you've got a slick little computer program on your side. All I have is hope and change. Basically you're risking nothing.

Obama wins, you stop posting.
Romney wins, I stop posting.

Simple enough?


Get on your tap shoes...

If Romney wins you'll back out.

BTW, I think your siggy is in poor taste.

Plenty of my Ranger friends would be happy to show you why.

 

[mudwhistle]

A University of Colorado model that has correctly picked every presidential election since 1980 picked Romney to handedly beat Obama 320-218....with 52.9 percent of the popular vote.

University of Colorado model points to big Romney win | The Daily Caller

Using data from today's economy Romney wins big. If the economy improves in the next couple of months this changes things.

The media is desperately trying say the economy is improving, however they aren't big on specifics. They just say things look promising.

So basically, don't believe anything you hear, because it's designed to discourage Republican voters.

Looks like that model is about to be blown out of the water


Back to the drawing board University of Colorado

Yeah......THIS time it will be different.

All of the facts point against him.

Historically no president has ever been re-elected with approval ratings as low as Obama.

This is just one more nail in the coffin.

 

[rightwinger]

A University of Colorado model that has correctly picked every presidential election since 1980 picked Romney to handedly beat Obama 320-218....with 52.9 percent of the popular vote.

University of Colorado model points to big Romney win | The Daily Caller

Using data from today's economy Romney wins big. If the economy improves in the next couple of months this changes things.

The media is desperately trying say the economy is improving, however they aren't big on specifics. They just say things look promising.

So basically, don't believe anything you hear, because it's designed to discourage Republican voters.

Looks like that model is about to be blown out of the water


Back to the drawing board University of Colorado

Yeah......THIS time it will be different.

All of the facts point against him.

Historically no president has ever been re-elected with approval ratings as low as Obama.

This is just one more nail in the coffin.

For reference..

The University of Colorado model has called every election right since 1980. I have called every election right since 1964

I bet my streak stays intact

 

[HUGGY]

Care to make a wager? No? Didn't think so.

C'mon muddy....you've got a slick little computer program on your side. All I have is hope and change. Basically you're risking nothing.

Obama wins, you stop posting.
Romney wins, I stop posting.

Simple enough?


Get on your tap shoes...

If Romney wins you'll back out.

BTW, I think your siggy is in poor taste.

Plenty of my Ranger friends would be happy to show you why.

What are they gonna do?...riot like some stupid Muslims?