Bank on it happening. Trump and Hegseth are not playing footsie. Trump will break the mullahs, he will grind up the IRGC. We are going in boots on ground in a quasi-multinational effort to seize Kharg Island.
And it may go beyond that.
It might end up that we must destroy considerable infrastructure we otherwise would have wanted to spare.
Failure is not an option here and the USA must get Iran under control and free up the Strait to get oil going. It might end up with a few battalions on the ground in a pitched fight. It would not surprise me to see us lose several thousand soldiers, but war is war and had we not waited 47 years to confront the unpleasantry of this maniacal murderous theocracy, it would have been a lot easier.
Then there is the matter of finding and retrieving all of that enriched uranium they have.
Sadly, it is the democrats now who are forcing our hand here.