Perhaps I missed your main focus. I have to admit I didn't even read your whole OP in detail. I skimmed it. My bad. I'm still not really sure how the OP title fits your text.
Guessing all the possible alliances and trouble spots is much akin to herding cats. There are still as there always have been countries in flux and transition. Ya Venezuela surprised me too..and I'm familiar with that part of the world. BUT ..this is the age of super communication and what Chavez see's as a benefit for his country may be valid from his standpoint. We may not like it but it really isn't our call. There are about as many different reasons as there are conflicts and future conflicts. That's what the CIA gets paid to keep track of and either they are dropping the ball or keeping it to themselves.
In any case our citizens are never the first to find out.
In this age of super communications, I think citizens may actually be aware of stuff and it takes awhile for the C.I.A. to catch up. I know the citizens are quite often way ahead of the news media.
The point is, I don't want us to stick our heads in the sand or pretend everything is just hunky dory wonderful or business as usual here in the USA and/or in the world when our gut tells us to be cautious. I don't want another holocaust. I don't want another cold war resulting in the emaciation and death of tens of millions. Can you Huggy or me Foxfyre stop it? Of course not. But the more that are aware, the less likely stuff is to fall between the cracks.
It's that same old saw: Those who fail to learn from history are condemned to repeat it. The way things are shaping up--the USA is weakened from a prolonged recession and is no doubt perceived as weak. Same in the years leading up to WWII yes? The perception that there is no real superpower in existence.
You have rogue governments who intend nobody any good building up their armies, resources, fuel dumps, etc. etc. etc. and becoming friendly with each other.
Much ado about nothing? Maybe. Maybe even probably.
But I don't think we should assume that and not be paying attention.