CNN exit polls have Cruz and Sanders winning.
Yeah, I did some algebra,
on this report that shows that 56% of those who voted for a GOP candidate want the one with the most delegates to be the nominee, and that breaks down into 83% of Trump supporters and 42% other.
So the algebra goes....
1. we know that 56% = 0.83X + 0.42Y
and that
2. X + Y = 100%
So substituting we get
56% = 0.83X + .42(100-X) = 0.83X + 42% - 0.42X
14% = 0.41X
34.1% = X
56% - 34.1% = 21.9% (Y's share of the pro most delegate group.
21.9% / 0.42 = 52.1% total of those opposed to Trump.
For Cruz to win, Kasich can only take 17.9% of the Wisconsin vote, and that give Cruz a margin of only 0.1%
Now Kasich has been averaging well over 18% to 20% of the Wisconsin GOP voters and he gets a higher share of Democrat and independent cross overs, so it is looking to me like it will be a very narrow Trump win.
Trump 34%, Kasich 19%, Cruz 33% with about 16% either falling in the cracks of my calculations or they are early votes for other candidates, etc, and did not participate in the exit poll.
This could mean a split of
38% Trump, 36% Cruz and 22% Kasich.
It's going to be a late night, lol.
But then again, my algebra could be wildly off. It has only been 40 years since I have had to do much of that.