Will trump relent?

[jc456]

Goldman Sachs sees Trump tariffs spiking inflation, stunting growth and raising recession risks

With decision day looming this week for President Donald Trump’s latest round of tariffs, Goldman Sachs expects aggressive duties from the White House to raise inflation and unemployment and drag economic growth to a near-standstill.

The investment bank now expects that tariff rates will jump 15 percentage points, its previous “risk-case” scenario that now appears more likely when Trump announces reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday. However, Goldman did note that product and country exclusions eventually will pull that increase down to 9 percentage points.

When the new trade moves are enacted, the Goldman economic team led by head of global investment research Jan Hatzius sees a broad, negative impact on the economy.

In a note published on Sunday, the firm said “we continue to believe the risk from April 2 tariffs is greater than many market participants have previously assumed.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/30/tar...-and-raise-recession-risks-goldman-says-.html

Which will prevail? trump's flat earth views on the efficacy of tariffs or their real world affects? The country, indeed the world, is an economic hostage to an imbecile's love affair with the kind of destructive trade policy that once lead to a depression. Our trading partners are reeling, so too is the stock market, in the face of trump's stubborn belief his ability to alter reality in the minds of his following translates to an ability to alter financial reality. He's wrong, yet no one in his inner circle has the courage to tell him.

No one gave a shit when creepy joe took gas prices to 7.00 a gallon. So fk off you virtual hypocrite

 

[berg80]

The markets have attempted to come back intraday both yesterday and today. Both times owners of stocks sold in to the short term rally.

Just as stocks trade based on a multiple of earnings so too does the S&P. Analysts are currently adjusting their earnings estimates for the companies comprising the S&P 500 right now. They are factoring in a recession for Q2.

 

[Mac1958]

The markets have attempted to come back intraday both yesterday and today. Both times owners of stocks sold in to the short term rally.

Just as stocks trade based on a multiple of earnings so too does the S&P. Analysts are currently adjusting their earnings estimates for the companies comprising the S&P 500 right now. They are factoring in a recession for Q2.

Trump is panicking. He just called on Powell to drop rates. Right in the teeth of inflation.

He tried this in his last term and was told to piss off, luckily.

This mess is HIS doing.

 

[berg80]

Trump is panicking. He just called on Powell to drop rates. Right in the teeth of inflation.

He tried this in his last term and was told to piss off, luckily.

This mess is HIS doing.

The bond market is doing Powell's work for him. The 10 year bond has dropped below 4% in anticipation of a recession and due to a "flight to quality" in times of uncertainty. Some market observers are calling for four, not two rate cuts, because of much slower to negative expected growth coupled with higher unemployment.

Powell is on the tape today saying the Fed is on hold until it sees how things play out. But you can bet Baby Donald will try to use him as a scapegoat when the recession comes.

Powell sees tariffs raising inflation and says Fed will wait before further rate moves​

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/04/powell-sees-tariffs-raising-inflation-and-says-fed-will-wait-before-further-rate-moves.html

 

[Mac1958]

The bond market is doing Powell's work for him. The 10 year bond has dropped below 4% in anticipation of a recession and due to a "flight to quality" in times of uncertainty. Some market observers are calling for four, not two rate cuts, because of much slower to negative expected growth coupled with higher unemployment.

Powell is on the tape today saying the Fed is on hold until it sees how things play out. But you can bet Baby Donald will try to use him as a scapegoat when the recession comes.

Yeah, the regular ebb & flow of markets. The bond market will help. I'm still pissed at Powell for waiting so goddamn long to get ahead of inflation in 2021, but he's done good work since. Slow, steady and unemotional, the opposite of the Dear Leader.

 

[berg80]

Yeah, the regular ebb & flow of markets. The bond market will help. I'm still pissed at Powell for waiting so goddamn long to get ahead of inflation in 2021, but he's done good work since. Slow, steady and unemotional, the opposite of the Dear Leader.

Remember when the regime trotted out the spin doctors with their "minor disruption" talking points? I wonder if they knew at the time trump was going to blow up the global economy?

 

[Mac1958]

Remember when the regime trotted out the spin doctors with their "minor disruption" talking points? I wonder if they knew at the time trump was going to blow up the global economy?

I'd guess they had no idea. They're stuck in the 80's.

 

[OhPleaseJustQuit]

Short term pain
Long term gain.

.

We'll survive it.

When the adult gets that BandAid yanked off, he or she might yelp once and get over it.

When the baby gets the BandAid yanked off, he/she/it screams for an hour because they get attention by doing so.


.

 

[Jim H - VA USA]

I'd guess they had no idea. They're stuck in the 80's.

Nancy Pelosi in 1996 advocating for "reciprocal tariffs..."

Of course, this was before she got rich shipping jobs overseas...

 

[Mac1958]

Nancy Pelosi in 1996 advocating for "reciprocal tariffs..."

Of course, this was before she got rich shipping jobs overseas...

Yeah, we can blame Pelosi for this.

That's a good idea!

 

[The Duke]

funniest post ever.

Decades worth. Derp!
Trump has been talking tariffs since the 80s, and I have since the W. days.

 

[OhPleaseJustQuit]

Wow...he negotatiated so well he filed bankruptcy 6 times and was convicted another 34.

.



Another victim of public school, who was never taught how to spell I-N-D-I-C-T-E-D.




.

 

[The Duke]

Dont be so sure

Lets wait and see before passing judgement

Dude, they passed judgement before he got started.
I always give a president 100 days ..well usually.
But I had read EO 13990 before his 1st 100 days were up and that jaded me on Biden.

 

[HaShev]

CNBC's interpretation of Goldman Sachs alleged interpretation of Trump's tariff agenda? Come on lefties.

Wasn't GS also known for savagely shorting the market, I remember they used to attack the Yahoo boards viciously to cause doubt and fear, sort of like the media.
It's irrational when people are selling off below par fixed income Preferreds and notes that are 8-9% in an era of 4% cds and lower treasuries. Now they're 10%ers grab em while you can, 5yr notes spring back fast as nobody normal sells their plush income streams.

 

[Mac1958]

He’s tariffing the dogs!

He’s tariffing the cats!

 

[Jim H - VA USA]

He’s tariffing the dogs!

He’s tariffing the cats!

I remember COVID, when everyone panicked. It was a natural reaction of the market I suppose. Many stocks lost 80% of their value, like oil, cruise lines, airlines....

Lot's of people including me made a ton of money off the unreasonable pessimism - it was just another flu, after all, and I knew that because I had it before the crash.

Probably similar overreaction happening now. Sale on stocks today...

 

[berg80]

Republicans weigh using the power of Congress to rein in Trump on tariffs​

WASHINGTON — The fallout from President Donald Trump's aggressive new tariffs has spurred Congress into action, with a growing number of Republicans joining Democrats to express interest in using their power to restrain him.

After the GOP-led Senate delivered a rare rebuke to Trump on Wednesday by voting to undo his tariffs on Canada, lawmakers in both chambers are weighing additional steps to rein him in. Senators are eyeing other mechanisms to rescind Trump’s existing tariffs while limiting his ability to impose new ones. And Democrats in the House are exploring ways to force a vote to revoke Canadian tariffs, putting out feelers to attract support from Republicans.

Republicans weigh using the power of Congress to rein in Trump on tariffs

After GOP senators helped pass a measure to revoke Trump's Canada tariffs, talks are underway to force a House vote. Senators also unveiled a bipartisan bill to limit his authority.

www.nbcnews.com

Do they fear trump's wrath more than the wrath of their constituents?

 

[The Irish Ram]

His plan is not believable because he has changed course too many times. I can tell that Canadas strategy is to just hold out until Trump gives in.

I'm sure Canada isn't alone.

If U.S becomes near default your bond rates are going to skyrocket while the socialists lick their lips over the prospect of taking over and spending the U.S into hyper inflation.

U.S MUST bring back industries, jobs, revenue while protecting civil liberties. Trumps circle are probably telling him great stories to make him change back to a more "traditional" conservative economic policy (i.e allow outsourcing of jobs and big spending on military)

Are you keeping track of all the nations lining up to talk to Trump, and all the jobs they want to bring with them? Do you realize that the nations that are bitching about not being able to take advantage of us anymore, are going to lose? Canada fits into that category.
Trump is right. Fair trade or tariffs. Canada doesn't seem to get it. Instead of trashing the USA, what are your leaders doing to ramp up your economy?

Oh Look! Free trade with Israel. O% tariffs accomplished. Who is next?
We are taking our prosperity back. We don't care how you feel about that.

 

[kyzr]

I remember COVID, when everyone panicked. It was a natural reaction of the market I suppose. Many stocks lost 80% of their value, like oil, cruise lines, airlines....

Lot's of people including me made a ton of money off the unreasonable pessimism - it was just another flu, after all, and I knew that because I had it before the crash.

Probably similar overreaction happening now. Sale on stocks today...

View attachment 1096788

After people remember that the Fed will cut 2 or 3 times this year, and the Budget is much better with a smaller deficit, the markets will rally as per normal behavior.

 

[Billiejeens]

Every decent economist has been saying for a while that a major correction was coming.

It's here.

President Trump didn't so much cause it as he did control the timing.