Why the US is at War with Iran and Why the War Might Pause but Won’t End (The New Atlas 5.8.2026)

[Invisibleflash]

Excellent rundown on the history that brought us here and where the USA is hoping to go with this war.

Description from video:

"The prospect of US war against Iran and around the globe continuously escalating in the near to intermediate future is inevitable because the wars taking place now are being fought specifically to prepare for a future confrontation with China itself. For this reason, the prospects of the US arriving at any sort of “peace” deal with Russia or Iran is near zero. "

 

[Bad Bob]

Excellent rundown on the history that brought us here and where the USA is hoping to go with this war.

Description from video:

"The prospect of US war against Iran and around the globe continuously escalating in the near to intermediate future is inevitable because the wars taking place now are being fought specifically to prepare for a future confrontation with China itself. For this reason, the prospects of the US arriving at any sort of “peace” deal with Russia or Iran is near zero. "

View attachment 1253829

I lived the history and, while the global collision between the West and Russia/China/Iran has been around for years, as history proves, proxy wars are much better than a hot war between nuclear powers.

Lots of nasty things happened during the 45 years of Cold War. The only thing good about the Cold War was that it wasn't a Hot War, which would have ended modern human civilization if not the human race itself.

 

[1srelluc]

Nice rooster crowing in the background.

 

[Moonglow]

Trump loses ability to not only use the bases but the airspace has been lost also. Trump is such a **** up.

Based on reports from early May 2026, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait temporarily blocked the U.S. military from using their bases and airspace to support "Project Freedom," an initiative aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This restriction was triggered by a lack of coordination regarding the operation, but access was reinstated shortly after. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

 

[Bad Bob]

Trump loses ability to not only use the bases but the airspace has been lost also. Trump is such a **** up.

Based on reports from early May 2026, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait temporarily blocked the U.S. military from using their bases and airspace to support "Project Freedom," an initiative aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This restriction was triggered by a lack of coordination regarding the operation, but access was reinstated shortly after. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

Saudi Arabia screwed up by supporting the War in Iran and believing, like Trump, that it would be a quick and easy victory. Now they and the other Arab nations are having Buyer's Remorse. They want this war to be over and are likely to support more concessions than Trump will give up. Trump has a fragile ego and is desperately afraid of being seen as a loser. Giving up concessions and paying Iran for the damage he's done will show the world Trump is a big, cowardly Wuss.

 

[Winston]

Saudi Arabia screwed up by supporting the War in Iran and believing, like Trump, that it would be a quick and easy victory. Now they and the other Arab nations are having Buyer's Remorse. They want this war to be over and are likely to support more concessions than Trump will give up. Trump has a fragile ego and is desperately afraid of being seen as a loser. Giving up concessions and paying Iran for the damage he's done will show the world Trump is a big, cowardly Wuss.

Saudi Arabia has came out pretty well. Yes, they have been forced to cut production by a couple million barrels a day, but part of those cuts were already planned through OPEC agreements. And, of those 7.5 million barrels a day they are producing, and selling, they are getting like $30 more per barrel. That is a UNIT a day in extra money. A "unit", kind of a local finance slang for two hundred million.

Iran should propose setting up a six nation partnership to control, and monetize, the Strait. Iran controls half the "shares", the other five nations control the rest. Twenty shares, Iran controls ten, owns ten. Maybe Bahrain has one, Saudi Arabia three, UAE two, but they got to buy those shares. They can take the funds from their sovereign wealth funds. Share cost, two hundred million each. That leaves the partnership with two billion dollars in operating cash. They can implement a toll system, building on the infrastructure they already have in place.

Honestly, that is probably the only thing that is going to work when it comes to opening the Strait. The only thing that will calm the insurers, because nothing floats until they say it floats.

 

[Bad Bob]

Saudi Arabia has came out pretty well. Yes, they have been forced to cut production by a couple million barrels a day, but part of those cuts were already planned through OPEC agreements. And, of those 7.5 million barrels a day they are producing, and selling, they are getting like $30 more per barrel. That is a UNIT a day in extra money. A "unit", kind of a local finance slang for two hundred million.

Iran should propose setting up a six nation partnership to control, and monetize, the Strait. Iran controls half the "shares", the other five nations control the rest. Twenty shares, Iran controls ten, owns ten. Maybe Bahrain has one, Saudi Arabia three, UAE two, but they got to buy those shares. They can take the funds from their sovereign wealth funds. Share cost, two hundred million each. That leaves the partnership with two billion dollars in operating cash. They can implement a toll system, building on the infrastructure they already have in place.

Honestly, that is probably the only thing that is going to work when it comes to opening the Strait. The only thing that will calm the insurers, because nothing floats until they say it floats.

That may very well be the way it works out but I doubt Trump or the Republicans would be happy with it.

 

[Martin Eden Mercury]

Excellent rundown on the history that brought us here and where the USA is hoping to go with this war.

Description from video:

"The prospect of US war against Iran and around the globe continuously escalating in the near to intermediate future is inevitable because the wars taking place now are being fought specifically to prepare for a future confrontation with China itself. For this reason, the prospects of the US arriving at any sort of “peace” deal with Russia or Iran is near zero. "

View attachment 1253829

Funny and maybe even interesting.

 

[kyzr]

Saudi Arabia has came out pretty well. Yes, they have been forced to cut production by a couple million barrels a day, but part of those cuts were already planned through OPEC agreements. And, of those 7.5 million barrels a day they are producing, and selling, they are getting like $30 more per barrel. That is a UNIT a day in extra money. A "unit", kind of a local finance slang for two hundred million.

Iran should propose setting up a six nation partnership to control, and monetize, the Strait. Iran controls half the "shares", the other five nations control the rest. Twenty shares, Iran controls ten, owns ten. Maybe Bahrain has one, Saudi Arabia three, UAE two, but they got to buy those shares. They can take the funds from their sovereign wealth funds. Share cost, two hundred million each. That leaves the partnership with two billion dollars in operating cash. They can implement a toll system, building on the infrastructure they already have in place.

Honestly, that is probably the only thing that is going to work when it comes to opening the Strait. The only thing that will calm the insurers, because nothing floats until they say it floats.

That won't work according to Marco Rubio. Most countries would protect international waterways.

Project Freedom that escorts ships thru Hormuz is the initial test of Iran's ability to close Hormuz.
Every speedboat they sent out to attack a ship gets destroyed, so it looks like Hormuz will be reopened.

The US backstops the insurers to get the traffic moving again. Stay tuned.

U.S. Doubles Hormuz Insurance Backstop to $40B in Hopes of Luring Ships Back

The Trump administration has increased its maritime insurance support to $40 billion. This move aims to kickstart commercial shipping through the Strait of Hor...

oceancrew.org

 

[Martin Eden Mercury]

That won't work according to Marco Rubio.

 

[kyzr]

Excellent rundown on the history that brought us here and where the USA is hoping to go with this war.

Description from video:
"The prospect of US war against Iran and around the globe continuously escalating in the near to intermediate future is inevitable because the wars taking place now are being fought specifically to prepare for a future confrontation with China itself. For this reason, the prospects of the US arriving at any sort of “peace” deal with Russia or Iran is near zero. "

I hope that is wrong because what you are describing is the inevitability of WW3.

I don't see how WW3 helps any country, so I'm betting that WW3 does not happen.

Russia is losing in Ukraine, Putin may be assassinated to save Russian lives.

China lived thru the aftermath of war, I'm sure that China prefers prosperity, but Taiwan may be an inevitable trigger for them.

 

[Martin Eden Mercury]

I hope that is wrong because what you are describing is the inevitability of WW3.

I don't see how WW3 helps any country, so I'm betting that WW3 does not happen.

Russia is losing in Ukraine, Putin may be assassinated to save Russian lives.

China lived thru the aftermath of war, I'm sure that China prefers prosperity, but Taiwan may be an inevitable trigger for them.

Fundamentalist Christians and Christianity in general can be viewed as a Death Cult. Reason they are backing and pushing Trump to help make Israel take over the whole of the old Levant, and bring to fruition their much prayed for END TIMES

 

[kyzr]

Fundamentalist Christians and Christianity in general can be viewed as a Death Cult. Reason they are backing and pushing Trump to help make Israel take over the whole of the old Levant, and bring to fruition their much prayed for END TIMES

I strongly disagree with that. We aren't a Death Cult.
We don't support Bibi's "Greater Israel" either. Trump needs to b!tch slap Bibi. We need the Gulf states as allies.

 

[jacksonlamb]

Let's not have another 'forever' war.

 

[Bad Bob]

That won't work according to Marco Rubio. Most countries would protect international waterways.

Project Freedom that escorts ships thru Hormuz is the initial test of Iran's ability to close Hormuz.
Every speedboat they sent out to attack a ship gets destroyed, so it looks like Hormuz will be reopened.

The US backstops the insurers to get the traffic moving again. Stay tuned.

U.S. Doubles Hormuz Insurance Backstop to $40B in Hopes of Luring Ships Back

The Trump administration has increased its maritime insurance support to $40 billion. This move aims to kickstart commercial shipping through the Strait of Hor...

oceancrew.org

It would have to be an international agreement....and even MAGAts know the US is still the 400 lb gorilla. Russia and China would support the idea too.

Speedboats, yes, but not drones. Why should US taxpayers foot the bill escorting tankers through the Strait for several years?

Are you an American??? Why do you want the US taxpayers to foot the bill for insurance on all the tankers too?

 

[kyzr]

It would have to be an international agreement....and even MAGAts know the US is still the 400 lb gorilla. Russia and China would support the idea too.

Why would we need an international agreement for Project Freedom? Other nations' escorts would be nice.
After a few months Iran collapses and Hormuz is open.

Speedboats, yes, but not drones. Why should US taxpayers foot the bill escorting tankers through the Strait for several years?

The CIA said Iran would collapse in 3-4 months of our blockade.

Are you an American??? Why do you want the US taxpayers to foot the bill for insurance on all the tankers too?

Yes I'm an American, I don't expect the insurance backstop to cost much, assuming we can shoot down whatever Iran puts up.

 

[Bad Bob]

Why would we need an international agreement for Project Freedom? Other nations' escorts would be nice.
After a few months Iran collapses and Hormuz is open.

The CIA said Iran would collapse in 3-4 months of our blockade.

Yes I'm an American, I don't expect the insurance backstop to cost much, assuming we can shoot down whatever Iran puts up.

No, but we'd need an international agreement if any deals are negotiated regarding use of the Strait. As an American taxpayer, I'm not happy with the cost of Trump's war nor the cost of keeping most of our Navy in the region to escort ships.

Link to the CIA? I haven't seen that and doubt it's veracity. Trump said Iran would collapse within the week of his war.

Even if it's "only" a billion a year for insurance, the fact remains all Iran needs to do is launch a drone once in awhile to to keep stringing Trump and the American taxpayers along.

 

[kyzr]

No, but we'd need an international agreement if any deals are negotiated regarding use of the Strait. As an American taxpayer, I'm not happy with the cost of Trump's war nor the cost of keeping most of our Navy in the region to escort ships.

The strait is international waters, if its open like before no agreement is necessary.
As a taxpayer I don't want Iran to get nukes or ICBMs. We're paying for those ships no matter where they are.
Opening Hormuz is important.

Link to the CIA? I haven't seen that and doubt it's veracity. Trump said Iran would collapse within the week of his war.

I don't remember Trump saying that, got a link?

MSN

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/05/07/cia-intelligence-iran-trump-blockade-missiles/

Even if it's "only" a billion a year for insurance, the fact remains all Iran needs to do is launch a drone once in awhile to to keep stringing Trump and the American taxpayers along.

The insurance backstop is just to demonstrate that Operation Freedom works and Hormuz is open, 3 or 4 months at worst.

 

[Bad Bob]

The strait is international waters, if its open like before no agreement is necessary.
As a taxpayer I don't want Iran to get nukes or ICBMs. We're paying for those ships no matter where they are.
Opening Hormuz is important.

I don't remember Trump saying that, got a link?

MSN

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/05/07/cia-intelligence-iran-trump-blockade-missiles/

The insurance backstop is just to demonstrate that Operation Freedom works and Hormuz is open, 3 or 4 months at worst.

IF. Thanks to Trump, that won't happen. He's empowered Iran. They'll agree to no nukes, but at a price. It's always been the Iranian goal to be the major player in the ME. They feel they own the Persian Gulf because it has their name on it. LOL

I don't like Text Walls so will keep this short: Thank you for the link. IMHO, you should read it again: A confidential CIA analysis delivered to administration policymakers this week concludes that Iran can survive the U.S. naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing more severe economic hardship, four people familiar with the document said, a finding that appears to raise new questions about President Donald Trump’s optimism on ending the war.

A timeline of Trump's shifting statements about how long the Iran war will last

Since the U.S. and Israel launched the strikes against Iran Feb. 28, President Donald Trump has made contradictory statements about the timeline to end the war. He has repeatedly declared victory and then later threatened Iran.

www.pbs.org

Disagreed with your timeline but am willing to read any evidence you can present other than from your Orange Daddy.

 

[kyzr]

IF. Thanks to Trump, that won't happen. He's empowered Iran. They'll agree to no nukes, but at a price. It's always been the Iranian goal to be the major player in the ME. They feel they own the Persian Gulf because it has their name on it. LOL

Trump's blockade is a winning move. No money, even if the IRGC holds onto power by brutality for 3 or 4 months.

IMHO, you should read it again: A confidential CIA analysis delivered to administration policymakers this week concludes that Iran can survive the U.S. naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing more severe economic hardship, four people familiar with the document said, a finding that appears to raise new questions about President Donald Trump’s optimism on ending the war.

Ok, like I said, 3 or 4 months of blockade.

Disagreed with your timeline but am willing to read any evidence you can present other than from your Orange Daddy.

I'm not sure what "original timeline" that was? Anyway, we hit 14,000 targets. Now we do project Freedom to open Hormuz while blocking Iran's oil for 3 or 4 months until they collapse. Maybe hitting a few bridges or powerplants would speed that up?