Why the Ukraine's Counteroffensive is Difficult.

[para bellum]

Neither side of this war is capable of winning it at this point. One side may lose less or have their territory returned...but it is not looking good for either.

I seem to recall not long ago you were claiming Ukraine would take Crimea back by July 1.

I have always said it will be a slog, the eastern AO is flat and open terrain.

What's happening is this: Russia is pulling reserves from the second and third lines to reinforce the front lines. That is making progress slow for the AFU, but there will be a point where the reserves are depleted and the AFU progress will be more dramatic.

It looks like Kherson right now, by the end of August it will begin to look like Kharkiv...

 

[JohnDB]

I seem to recall not long ago you were claiming Ukraine would take Crimea back by July 1.

I have always said it will be a slog, the eastern AO is flat and open terrain.

What's happening is this: Russia is pulling reserves from the second and third lines to reinforce the front lines. That is making progress slow for the AFU, but there will be a point where the reserves are depleted and the AFU progress will be more dramatic.

It looks like Kherson right now, by the end of August it will begin to look like Kharkiv...

I've never given a timeline for the war itself....except for a rough guess as to when Russia's financial reserves would run out....
And that guess is looking very likely to be accurate.

War is subject to a LOT of variables. Either side can understand an opportunity and take advantage....weather is also a huge factor.

Just because you have every advantage doesn't guarantee success when it comes to war.

 

[toomuchtime_]

Well that is the narrative that is going out currently by EVERYONE....and when the crowds are using the same words everywhere....I smell a rat....as in I don't believe it because the narrative is likely propaganda instead of the real truth.

War is difficult to begin with. People are always trying to sneak around to break your toys and kill you in the process. (To keep you from killing them)

Asymmetrical warfare is more difficult because the "little guy" is outgunned and outnumbered. That doesn't mean that the little guy will lose....big armies can become trapped and bogged down by equipment and the large groups of soldiers. The big armies are slow to move about. Equipment failures or logistics failures can completely immobilize whole brigades of men or create huge morale issues. (Mutiny)
Also large armies usually have issues with disease. Sleeping outside with substandard sanitation and nutrition is hard on most people...and the second someone gets the sniffles or Covid or tuberculosis....everyone soon will have it. It will infect literally an entire army.

So...
Where Ukraine does seem to be continually making slow progress...they need huge attrition numbers to make this war politically and financially expensive for Russia.

What will make Russia give up and go home? Dunno.
What will make any leader of Russia never want to try this again because it would be political suicide to suggest it?
I don't know.

Neither side of this war is capable of winning it at this point. One side may lose less or have their territory returned...but it is not looking good for either. Hundreds of thousands of lives have been lost. Entire cities turned into rubble. MILLIONS OF PEOPLE are currently living in exile from Russia as well as Ukraine. Family generational homes have been destroyed or stolen or the families killed.

I agree that war is a terrible thing, but the facts about how this war is going now are clear, and there is no reason to suspect all the journalists are colluding to misinform you. While the Russian government appears to be opposed as a matter of principle to telling the truth to the Russian people or anyone else, so far the reports on the war from the Ukrainian government or military have not been shown to be false.

This is not asymmetrical warfare. These are two fairly large, modern, fairly well-equipped armies facing off against each other along a 600 mile front line, and now that the Russians have learned how to defend their positions, progress will not be made quickly, but conditions favor and eventual Ukrainian (my opinion) victory because Ukraine's allies, the wealthiest and most technologically advanced countries in the world, have shown increasing commitment to victory and a diminished hesitancy to offend Russia by helping Ukraine to win, and supply new equipment at a rate greater than Ukraine's battlefield losses and now types of equipment to confront new obstacles, whereas Russia is unable to provide new equipment to cover its battlefield losses. Over time, this difference favors an Ukrainian victory.

 

[JohnDB]

I agree that war is a terrible thing, but the facts about how this war is going now are clear, and there is no reason to suspect all the journalists are colluding to misinform you. While the Russian government appears to be opposed as a matter of principle to telling the truth to the Russian people or anyone else, so far the reports on the war from the Ukrainian government or military have not been shown to be false.

This is not asymmetrical warfare. These are two fairly large, modern, fairly well-equipped armies facing off against each other along a 600 mile front line, and now that the Russians have learned how to defend their positions, progress will not be made quickly, but conditions favor and eventual Ukrainian (my opinion) victory because Ukraine's allies, the wealthiest and most technologically advanced countries in the world, have shown increasing commitment to victory and a diminished hesitancy to offend Russia by helping Ukraine to win, and supply new equipment at a rate greater than Ukraine's battlefield losses and now types of equipment to confront new obstacles, whereas Russia is unable to provide new equipment to cover its battlefield losses. Over time, this difference favors an Ukrainian victory.

Russia has a superior number of artillery and fire rate from their artillery pieces. They also have more troops. (Larger population to draw upon)

Ukraine is not allowed to attack Russia inside Russian borders....kinda tying their hands behind their back.

I'm not suggesting that Russia is "winning" or that Ukraine is "losing".

The only thing that I am suggesting is that we aren't getting a complete picture yet.

 

[JohnDB]

I agree that war is a terrible thing, but the facts about how this war is going now are clear, and there is no reason to suspect all the journalists are colluding to misinform you. While the Russian government appears to be opposed as a matter of principle to telling the truth to the Russian people or anyone else, so far the reports on the war from the Ukrainian government or military have not been shown to be false.

This is not asymmetrical warfare. These are two fairly large, modern, fairly well-equipped armies facing off against each other along a 600 mile front line, and now that the Russians have learned how to defend their positions, progress will not be made quickly, but conditions favor and eventual Ukrainian (my opinion) victory because Ukraine's allies, the wealthiest and most technologically advanced countries in the world, have shown increasing commitment to victory and a diminished hesitancy to offend Russia by helping Ukraine to win, and supply new equipment at a rate greater than Ukraine's battlefield losses and now types of equipment to confront new obstacles, whereas Russia is unable to provide new equipment to cover its battlefield losses. Over time, this difference favors an Ukrainian victory.

There's also this:

 

[toomuchtime_]

Russia has a superior number of artillery and fire rate from their artillery pieces. They also have more troops. (Larger population to draw upon)

Ukraine is not allowed to attack Russia inside Russian borders....kinda tying their hands behind their back.

I'm not suggesting that Russia is "winning" or that Ukraine is "losing".

The only thing that I am suggesting is that we aren't getting a complete picture yet.

You haven't pointed out any gaps in the information we have or contradicted anything I have said, so I am not sure what point you are trying to make. This is a war of attrition and as the quality of arms the AFU is able to bring to the field continues to improve and the quality of arms Russia is able to bring to the field continues to decline, the outcome would seem to favor Ukraine.

 

[toomuchtime_]

There's also this:

This is irrelevant to the quality or reliability of reports on the war from the Ukrainian government or military.

 

[JohnDB]

This is irrelevant to the quality or reliability of reports on the war from the Ukrainian government or military.

Ummm
It's saying that the control of information coming out of Ukraine is so tight a mouse can't even pass gas.

And so the only thing that we really know is what we are being told...which isn't always the truth.

Other than wild speculation and half information we really don't know anything.

That's not to say that eventually we will know....but for now we really don't know much.

 

[Kruska]

Really? What is the Wagner group doing in Africa? NATO is composed of democracies, the Russian version is, like Putin, composed of autocrats. I see where your preference lies.

What are the Western pendants of the Russian Wagner group doing worldwide? - you are a very naive person to say the least.

"Nobody debates the fact that Wagner was vehemently antisemitic," says Sven Friedrich, director of the Richard Wagner Museum in Bayreuth. He has dedicated a whole floor of the museum to the composer's ideological history.

Dmitry Utkin admired Wagner because BOTH were anti-Semitic. Sorry but that is the reality.

I couldn't give a shit about Mr. Utkin's ideology - he does not represent Putin nor the Russian government.

So you believe that redrawing borders by force is acceptable. Got it. Nevermind that Poles are neither Russian nor German.

It's been happening since mankind invented clubs and bows - where do you live? And especially NATO and the USA have been constantly redrawing borders, especially since 1990.

Funny how the US didn't have to send in tanks to prop up the governments they installed. Unlike Hungry and Czechoslovakia.

Either you are still very young - or you got no idea as to what you are talking about.

S-Korea's government was installed by the USA and they had tanks and troops there even before N-Korea attacked the South with it's disputed, corrupt and autocratic leader.
Ever heard about the Gwangju massacre in S-Korea in 1980 - under the eye's of the USA?
Vietnam? the USA sending in troops and arms to support a despotic and corrupt government.
Kuwait? the USA sending in troops and arms to support an autocratic/monarchist government - against another autocratic government-whereby the USA had supported that autocratic government for many years to fight with another autocratic government in Iran.

Start reading upon some factual history - mate.

 

[toomuchtime_]

Ummm
It's saying that the control of information coming out of Ukraine is so tight a mouse can't even pass gas.

And so the only thing that we really know is what we are being told...which isn't always the truth.

Other than wild speculation and half information we really don't know anything.

That's not to say that eventually we will know....but for now we really don't know much.

Perhaps you don't know much, but if you were able to approach this with an open mind, you would be able to understand that what people say on social media and what the Ukrainian government and military report are two entirely different things.

 

[JohnDB]

Perhaps you don't know much, but if you were able to approach this with an open mind, you would be able to understand that what people say on social media and what the Ukrainian government and military report are two entirely different things.

Oh yeah....no kidding.
I try to listen to the boots on the ground....
And they tend to be a bit....inaccurate but trying to tell the truth. Their view tends to be a bit myopic. But enough can be gleaned to see something of what is going on....especially if you have ever known these people. But many of the "boots" are being really restricted from telling much of anything lately. They never before gave away current positions or anything like that but even the region or actions are missing lately. (Tighter Op-Sec)

That's what I've been referring to.

So we shall see what comes....is Ukraine being VERY successful? Marginally successful? Slightly successful? The lines are moving so some success is being had as evidenced by War Mapper, ISW, DeepState, and Rhybar.

With as many satellites and drones flying about and as many troops and equipment running around there ought to be some assessments as to what is happening.

But that sort of thing isn't being said.
Except that more munitions and equipment are getting shipped into Ukraine.

 

[toomuchtime_]

Oh yeah....no kidding.
I try to listen to the boots on the ground....
And they tend to be a bit....inaccurate but trying to tell the truth. Their view tends to be a bit myopic. But enough can be gleaned to see something of what is going on....especially if you have ever known these people. But many of the "boots" are being really restricted from telling much of anything lately. They never before gave away current positions or anything like that but even the region or actions are missing lately. (Tighter Op-Sec)

That's what I've been referring to.

So we shall see what comes....is Ukraine being VERY successful? Marginally successful? Slightly successful? The lines are moving so some success is being had as evidenced by War Mapper, ISW, DeepState, and Rhybar.

With as many satellites and drones flying about and as many troops and equipment running around there ought to be some assessments as to what is happening.

But that sort of thing isn't being said.
Except that more munitions and equipment are getting shipped into Ukraine.

Again, no one has found the reports from the Ukrainian government or military to be false, and with so many journalists from so many countries observing events from the Ukrainian side, if the Ukrainian government or military were lying, they would surely have been exposed by now, and they have been clear about what advances they have made and what obstacles are slowing them down.

Chief among the obstacles that are slowing the AFU down are the vast minefields Russia has laid down to protect their positions. Since there is no quick and easy way to clear minefields while under attack, despite Ukraine's superiority in armor, it is apparent that another strategy is needed to speed up the advance and from what I have read, it involves long range missiles, accurate up to 190 miles and cluster bombs to attack the Russians from the rear without first having to clear the minefields. Presently, the UK is sending Storm Shadow missiles, accurate up to 145 miles, France just agreed to send long range missiles to Ukraine, but has not yet said which ones, and it appears the US may soon start sending ATACMS, accurate to 190 miles, to Ukraine. Forcing Russia to move reserve troops and supplies back 190 miles from the front line and dropping cluster bombs on Russian trenches should greatly relieve pressure on Ukrainian sappers clearing minefields.

So progress is slow because of improved Russian defenses, but Ukraine and its allies are working on new strategies to speed it up.

 

[JohnDB]

Again, no one has found the reports from the Ukrainian government or military to be false, and with so many journalists from so many countries observing events from the Ukrainian side, if the Ukrainian government or military were lying, they would surely have been exposed by now, and they have been clear about what advances they have made and what obstacles are slowing them down.

Chief among the obstacles that are slowing the AFU down are the vast minefields Russia has laid down to protect their positions. Since there is no quick and easy way to clear minefields while under attack, despite Ukraine's superiority in armor, it is apparent that another strategy is needed to speed up the advance and from what I have read, it involves long range missiles, accurate up to 190 miles and cluster bombs to attack the Russians from the rear without first having to clear the minefields. Presently, the UK is sending Storm Shadow missiles, accurate up to 145 miles, France just agreed to send long range missiles to Ukraine, but has not yet said which ones, and it appears the US may soon start sending ATACMS, accurate to 190 miles, to Ukraine. Forcing Russia to move reserve troops and supplies back 190 miles from the front line and dropping cluster bombs on Russian trenches should greatly relieve pressure on Ukrainian sappers clearing minefields.

So progress is slow because of improved Russian defenses, but Ukraine and its allies are working on new strategies to speed it up.

Oh I don't think that Ukraine is lying....just not telling us the whole story.

If Russia moves its supplies to 190 miles back from the front lines....might as well not have them at all. Top military travel speeds for logistics and manpower are roughly around 70kph-100 kph....meaning around 35-45 mph if the roads are clear and in great shape....slower if twisty or rough. Basically 5-6hrs away from the front at a minimum. That "last mile" always takes the longest.
And I'm sure you can do the math too.
Of course longer travel distances means MORE logistics for fuel, parts and supplies to keep equipment operating....slower reaction times.

If you are in a trench needing a canteen of water, ammunition, and food and your radio only reaches 50 miles.....yeah.

Granted the WIDE variety of equipment Ukraine is currently using has to be a nightmare for logistics. There's no way they could keep up. Bullets for rifles alone has to be a nightmare to keep up with.

 

[alang1216]

What are the Western pendants of the Russian Wagner group doing worldwide? - you are a very naive person to say the least.

I couldn't give a shit about Mr. Utkin's ideology - he does not represent Putin nor the Russian government.

It's been happening since mankind invented clubs and bows - where do you live? And especially NATO and the USA have been constantly redrawing borders, especially since 1990.

Either you are still very young - or you got no idea as to what you are talking about.

S-Korea's government was installed by the USA and they had tanks and troops there even before N-Korea attacked the South with it's disputed, corrupt and autocratic leader.
Ever heard about the Gwangju massacre in S-Korea in 1980 - under the eye's of the USA?
Vietnam? the USA sending in troops and arms to support a despotic and corrupt government.
Kuwait? the USA sending in troops and arms to support an autocratic/monarchist government - against another autocratic government-whereby the USA had supported that autocratic government for many years to fight with another autocratic government in Iran.

Start reading upon some factual history - mate.

The history of the West is nothing to brag about but for this point in time in this part of the world, the choice of supporting or opposing a murderous autocrat is clear.

 

[toomuchtime_]

The history of the West is nothing to brag about but for this point in time in this part of the world, the choice of supporting or opposing a murderous autocrat is clear.

The history of the West is something to brag about. The West set high standards for itself, as exemplified by the Declaration Of Independence statement that all men are created equal and then worked tirelessly to make that goal a fact. That is something to brag about. Russia, on the other hand, instead of trying to make itself better, seeks to go back to its past and be ruled by tyrants who allow no freedoms, not rights and to to construct a might makes right world.

 

[alang1216]

The history of the West is something to brag about. The West set high standards for itself, as exemplified by the Declaration Of Independence statement that all men are created equal and then worked tirelessly to make that goal a fact. That is something to brag about. Russia, on the other hand, instead of trying to make itself better, seeks to go back to its past and be ruled by tyrants who allow no freedoms, not rights and to to construct a might makes right world.

While the history of Russia is not something to brag about, the history of the West is a mixed bag. That Declaration Of Independence didn't apply to slaves, women, native Americans, etc. The history of Western colonialism is likewise a mixed bag. Noble ideals don't always translate into noble actions.

 

[skye]

“NATO has lost this war. Biden has lost this war. The lunatic Democrats have lost this war. The uni-party warmongers have lost this war. The EU has lost this war. Ukraine and Zelensky have lost this war.” — Kim Dotcom


That's that he said it all.

 

[toomuchtime_]

While the history of Russia is not something to brag about, the history of the West is a mixed bag. That Declaration Of Independence didn't apply to slaves, women, native Americans, etc. The history of Western colonialism is likewise a mixed bag. Noble ideals don't always translate into noble actions.

They don't always, but they often do. The Declaration of Independence is a perfect example. It was written by a slave owner at a time when slavery was commonplace and it was taught generations of school children who grew up to strive to make it a reality. The West strives to move forward to make the world a better place for everyone, but Russia strives to return to the 17th century when might makes right and the weak had no rights.

 

[Kruska]

The history of the West is nothing to brag about but for this point in time in this part of the world, the choice of supporting or opposing a murderous autocrat is clear.

Are you referring to the common peoples mindset - or those of their respective elitist circles aka governments?

There was absolutely no majority amongst the people in any NATO country (aside maybe the agitated American population due to 9/11) to make and bring war and destruction onto Somalia, Serbia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya and now Russia. Plus crippling a dozen and more countries, and especially their population (As such intentionally worsening the peoples livelihood) with economic sanctions and therefore intentionally raising the chances/desire for internal unrest and revolutions).

NONE of these autocratic or sanctioned countries had attacked any neighbor when they were attacked - aside from some of them facing civil-wars, whereby the opposing parties were initiated, and immediately supported and financed by those democratic countries.

Now tell me, what is it that makes democrats or democratic countries believe that they possess a "higher" moral? Because they allow their sheep's to vote for their respective party every 4 years?
Which does not even guarantee that someones "chosen" party gets to rule the realm - and that one day after the election is over, the respective democratic government via implementing laws and regulations, does what ever it wants without ever asking it's population. And if those democratic sheep's don't follow these laws they get punished via $ and jail-time. Just as in any autocratic country.

Why do you have all these demonstrations (many violent ones) in these democratic countries? Because people have been told that it is okay to demonstrate and use violence against any existing government and their imposition of laws. As such democracy is simply a joke - first the government doesn't care about it's peoples wants - and hence allows people to act against them.

Who are these democrats and their respective democratic governments to tell autocratic governments - you need to be as chaotic and illogical as us,- otherwise we will cause civil unrest in your country and eventually make war on you?

Therefore - it has NEVER been about democracy contra autocracy - but Western elites and $$ circles profiting from the "democratic" system, can't enter autocratic countries, in order to take control of them and therefore further their own personal business agendas. And e.g. Russia simply refuses to be taken over by Western elites and $$ circles. Therefore they will not allow for NATO to take control of Ukraine - and therefore a war such as the Ukraine-Russian war got started.

N-Korea - classic example, ruled by a despotic autocratic leader - do you believe that those sanctions (making the common people there even more poor and desperate) is going to help your democratic agenda? No, actually the N-Korean people detest democracy even more then before and worked even harder to get nukes. The same applies to e.g. Iran - those people who protest do not even represent 20% of the population - whilst the other 80% get to hate democracy and democratic countries even more.

Whilst NATO is doing it's best to support and militarize Monarchist and despotic Islamic autocracies throughout the Gulf States to get into confrontation with Iran - classic democrat warmongers.

Since 5-6 years now NATO aka USA is almost daily inciting hate and lies against China - additionally inciting a present government on Taiwan to opt for independence. Thus trying to provoke China into getting into war with Taiwan and thus NATO. Since China clearly stated that in the event of a deceleration of independence by Taiwan - China will also resort to military means.

And just as Russia will not accept a Ukraine in NATO, China will not accept an independent Taiwan, which would inadvertently become a US military base and NATO or NATO affiliate member, a hundred miles of mainland China's coast.

So if you prefer to support a factually proven, warmongering democratic $$ and elite system - constantly attacking autocratic countries via economic sanctions and by military force, then that is your personal "free" choice.
But the system you support or believe in, is in no way better then an autocratic system - in regards to intentional destruction and imposed sanctions, therefore increasing poverty, its even far worse.

 

[Silver Cat]

They don't always, but they often do. The Declaration of Independence is a perfect example. It was written by a slave owner at a time when slavery was commonplace and it was taught generations of school children who grew up to strive to make it a reality. The West strives to move forward to make the world a better place for everyone, but Russia strives to return to the 17th century when might makes right and the weak had no rights.

Actually, the Russians see it in a different way. According their understanding of freedom a drug-addicted or perverted person is not free and the freedom of drug-dealers and LGBT-ideologists (as well as a freedom of a slave-trader) means slavery for many other people. What did Dostoyevsky write?