Why Perry Can't Win

[Unkotare]

It is beyond pathetic that you democrats can't get over an election you lost over a decade ago.

I think it's pathetic that anyone is still trying to paint Bush as a good president or that his stealing the election was a positive thing for America.

And I say that as a Republican. .

You are not a Republican. Stop that silly little act.

Bush did not "steal" the election. Your guy lost. Get over it.

We weren't talking about good or bad, so put away that straw man.


You're really bad at this.

 

[Soggy in NOLA]

The GOP / Tea Party / Libertarians have a real quandry on their hands with this guy. I really liked him when we lived in Sugar Land, TX but we were pretty insulated from the poor / lower-middle-class there. I have to admit, I was not paying attention to a lot that was going on. I thought all was fine.

So the biggest debacle the Conservs have had recently (in the eyes of everyone but themselves) was the debt ceiling. Polls ranged anywhere from 65% - 78% of people thinking the GOP handled it disastrously. Doesn't matter if they were right or had a point, elections are won based on perception - and the perception was overwhelmingly poor. This was one of the few areas in which Obama (although he too had poor ratings) came out looking WAY better than the GOP. So debt is a key issue.
What's Perry's record on debt? Oops. What will the Dem sound bite be? "A vote for Perry is just like a vote for bringing George W. Bush back to the White House!" Oops.
Then there are those things about his highway and giving the government land and power? Oops. Big Government guy eh? More Bushlike.
Owned by Big Oil? Of course. More Bushlike.

But here's what's worse for him. Subliminal Psychology. The stuff we don't even notice, that effects our decision making.
I voted for Bush (the good one, not the idiot). I was floored when he lost! He was the first incumbant president in history to decisively win a war that the whole nation was behind - and then lose re-election.
I used to lecture on Pyschological Profiling at USD and decided to make him a case study. Bush was a long-time spook. One of the things you learn in the biz, is misdirectional body language. Shaking your head no, while you say the word "yes", for example. Bush was a master of this and it killed him. In one speech he held his thumb and forefinger an inch apart. What does that mean to our subconscious? Small. What was he actually saying at the time? "The Hispanic community is very important to me." What was the message sent to Hispanic voters? He's lying.
In another speech, he held his hands together and then motioned them outwards. What does that mean? Pushing apart. What did he say? "I'm here to bring us together. To work as a non-partisan." Again, the subconscious message that he was lying.
Now I think he actually meant those things but he had so much training in misdirectional body language, he couldn't help himself. So whether or not he was genuine, at the subconcious level, he wasn't perceived as genuine. That cost him.
So now we come to Perry. I've been watching and listening. There are three things that make impact: Visual appearance, Vocal tones and patterns, Choice of words.
Perry dresses and moves a lot like Bush (the idiot, not the good one). He's very "down home" and Texan. Even likes cowboy boots. This is bad.
Perry's vocal tones and patterns are a LOT like W. I heard him on the radio and thought it actually was W for a second. He speaks slowly, with a Texan drawl. He pauses a lot. He laughs just a bit, here and there. He speaks in a tone that is mostly light-hearted and then varies to anywhere from serious to mildly angered. This is all classic W.
Finaly, Perry's choice of words come straight from the Texas Handbook of Politics. It works wonders at home and worked wonders for W in both elections. And if it wasn't for W, it might make a fantastic contrast to Obama. But because of the spectre of The False Texan Conservative of Elections Past, it will be a killer for him.
Add to that, the actual, legitmate challenges he faces with issues such as spending and he's cooked. It's not that people would move toward Obama, it's that hoardes of Independents, Moderates (yes, there is a difference!) and others would move away from Perry.
So like I said, I liked Perry when I lived in Texas. I think Obama sucks. But for reasons beyond the recognizable, Perry would almost definitely lose a general election. A lot of people will "just have a bad feeling" about him and not even be sure why. Remember, most people don't research candidates, couldn't tell you if the 2nd amendment has to do with guns or ice cream, and vote based on the impressions they get from 30 second sound bites. It won't be hard for the Dems to gather sound bites that make Perry seem like a virtual clone of W.

How 'bout a post where you pull together a cogent thought?

 

[Toro]

I loathed Bush as President. He was the first Republican I did not support for President. I thought he was the worst. But I believe he was fairly elected and was the rightful President.

 

[JoeB131]

It is beyond pathetic that you democrats can't get over an election you lost over a decade ago.

I think it's pathetic that anyone is still trying to paint Bush as a good president or that his stealing the election was a positive thing for America.

And I say that as a Republican. .

You are not a Republican. Stop that silly little act.

Bush did not "steal" the election. Your guy lost. Get over it.

We weren't talking about good or bad, so put away that straw man.

You're really bad at this.

But far better than you, Mormon-boy.

Bush sucked as a president, and Republicans should be cursing his name.

When he stole the White House, the GOP had both houses of Congress and the Majority of State governorships.

When he left, Democrats owned all those things.

He did enormas damage to the party.

 

[JoeB131]

I loathed Bush as President. He was the first Republican I did not support for President. I thought he was the worst. But I believe he was fairly elected and was the rightful President.

I voted for the guy, but he should have conceded to Gore once it was obvious he lost the popular vote.

The Popular vote is the only one that counts, ethically.

There is no real good reason for the electoral college to even still exist.

 

[BoycottTheday]

Bush was "socialist lite", like all Rhino's.

 

[IndependntLogic]

The GOP / Tea Party / Libertarians have a real quandry on their hands with this guy. I really liked him when we lived in Sugar Land, TX but we were pretty insulated from the poor / lower-middle-class there. I have to admit, I was not paying attention to a lot that was going on. I thought all was fine.

So the biggest debacle the Conservs have had recently (in the eyes of everyone but themselves) was the debt ceiling. Polls ranged anywhere from 65% - 78% of people thinking the GOP handled it disastrously. Doesn't matter if they were right or had a point, elections are won based on perception - and the perception was overwhelmingly poor. This was one of the few areas in which Obama (although he too had poor ratings) came out looking WAY better than the GOP. So debt is a key issue.
What's Perry's record on debt? Oops. What will the Dem sound bite be? "A vote for Perry is just like a vote for bringing George W. Bush back to the White House!" Oops.
Then there are those things about his highway and giving the government land and power? Oops. Big Government guy eh? More Bushlike.
Owned by Big Oil? Of course. More Bushlike.

But here's what's worse for him. Subliminal Psychology. The stuff we don't even notice, that effects our decision making.
I voted for Bush (the good one, not the idiot). I was floored when he lost! He was the first incumbant president in history to decisively win a war that the whole nation was behind - and then lose re-election.
I used to lecture on Pyschological Profiling at USD and decided to make him a case study. Bush was a long-time spook. One of the things you learn in the biz, is misdirectional body language. Shaking your head no, while you say the word "yes", for example. Bush was a master of this and it killed him. In one speech he held his thumb and forefinger an inch apart. What does that mean to our subconscious? Small. What was he actually saying at the time? "The Hispanic community is very important to me." What was the message sent to Hispanic voters? He's lying.
In another speech, he held his hands together and then motioned them outwards. What does that mean? Pushing apart. What did he say? "I'm here to bring us together. To work as a non-partisan." Again, the subconscious message that he was lying.
Now I think he actually meant those things but he had so much training in misdirectional body language, he couldn't help himself. So whether or not he was genuine, at the subconcious level, he wasn't perceived as genuine. That cost him.
So now we come to Perry. I've been watching and listening. There are three things that make impact: Visual appearance, Vocal tones and patterns, Choice of words.
Perry dresses and moves a lot like Bush (the idiot, not the good one). He's very "down home" and Texan. Even likes cowboy boots. This is bad.
Perry's vocal tones and patterns are a LOT like W. I heard him on the radio and thought it actually was W for a second. He speaks slowly, with a Texan drawl. He pauses a lot. He laughs just a bit, here and there. He speaks in a tone that is mostly light-hearted and then varies to anywhere from serious to mildly angered. This is all classic W.
Finaly, Perry's choice of words come straight from the Texas Handbook of Politics. It works wonders at home and worked wonders for W in both elections. And if it wasn't for W, it might make a fantastic contrast to Obama. But because of the spectre of The False Texan Conservative of Elections Past, it will be a killer for him.
Add to that, the actual, legitmate challenges he faces with issues such as spending and he's cooked. It's not that people would move toward Obama, it's that hoardes of Independents, Moderates (yes, there is a difference!) and others would move away from Perry.
So like I said, I liked Perry when I lived in Texas. I think Obama sucks. But for reasons beyond the recognizable, Perry would almost definitely lose a general election. A lot of people will "just have a bad feeling" about him and not even be sure why. Remember, most people don't research candidates, couldn't tell you if the 2nd amendment has to do with guns or ice cream, and vote based on the impressions they get from 30 second sound bites. It won't be hard for the Dems to gather sound bites that make Perry seem like a virtual clone of W.

How 'bout a post where you pull together a cogent thought?

Hey soggy! I see your post is as on topic and intelligent as always! Love the irony of you posting that! Thanks for the morning laugh

 

[IndependntLogic]

I voted for Bush. I was floored when he lost! .

The problem wasn't his body language. You can thank the mediocre campaign he ran and, more significantly, Ross Perot for his defeat.

Very, very valid points. Do you think the Tea Party might have a "Perot Effect" on the 2012 election? I've seen a lot of post from TPs who say if Romney gets the nomination, they won't vote or will vote 3rd party. What do you think?

My posts wasn't meant to be a "Our guy is better than your guy" or "Your guy sucks" or anything like that. Simply an observation that occured to me when I heard Perry on the radio and later found some old class files on my computer.

Of course, there are always peope who view anything other than total agreement / support as an attack. There are even those whose "intellectual debate" is limited to the MB equivalent of "Oh Yeah? Well this post is all poop and you're a poopyhead!" . But occasionally I find people like you, who can add to a topic or even disagree and do so intelligently. That's refreshing.

 

[Meister]

I think it's pathetic that anyone is still trying to paint Bush as a good president or that his stealing the election was a positive thing for America.

And I say that as a Republican. .

You are not a Republican. Stop that silly little act.

Bush did not "steal" the election. Your guy lost. Get over it.

We weren't talking about good or bad, so put away that straw man.

You're really bad at this.

But far better than you, Mormon-boy.

Bush sucked as a president, and Republicans should be cursing his name.

When he stole the White House, the GOP had both houses of Congress and the Majority of State governorships.

When he left, Democrats owned all those things.

He did enormas damage to the party.

You still don't get it, your still in the leftwing echo chamber. Bush stole no election, he was fairly elected. I understand that you didn't like the outcome, but please be honest. I don't think he was a good president, but he certainly wasn't the worst either. He was fiscally a liberal.

 

[Zona]

Blah blah..this fucking unamerican said he wanted to succeed in 2009. Fuck him.

 

[Zona]

You are not a Republican. Stop that silly little act.

Bush did not "steal" the election. Your guy lost. Get over it.

We weren't talking about good or bad, so put away that straw man.

You're really bad at this.

But far better than you, Mormon-boy.

Bush sucked as a president, and Republicans should be cursing his name.

When he stole the White House, the GOP had both houses of Congress and the Majority of State governorships.

When he left, Democrats owned all those things.

He did enormas damage to the party.

You still don't get it, your still in the leftwing echo chamber. Bush stole no election, he was fairly elected. I understand that you didn't like the outcome, but please be honest. I don't think he was a good president, but he certainly wasn't the worst either. He was fiscally a liberal.

and he cherrypicked intel and sent us to a war based on a lie and killed thousands of american servicemembers. In my lifetime, he is the worst president.

 

[Meister]

I loathed Bush as President. He was the first Republican I did not support for President. I thought he was the worst. But I believe he was fairly elected and was the rightful President.

I voted for the guy, but he should have conceded to Gore once it was obvious he lost the popular vote.

The Popular vote is the only one that counts, ethically.

There is no real good reason for the electoral college to even still exist.

Popular vote doesn't elect a president, the electoral college does....and there is a valid reason for the electoral college....just because you don't understand it doesn't make it so.

 

[Meister]

But far better than you, Mormon-boy.

Bush sucked as a president, and Republicans should be cursing his name.

When he stole the White House, the GOP had both houses of Congress and the Majority of State governorships.

When he left, Democrats owned all those things.

He did enormas damage to the party.

You still don't get it, your still in the leftwing echo chamber. Bush stole no election, he was fairly elected. I understand that you didn't like the outcome, but please be honest. I don't think he was a good president, but he certainly wasn't the worst either. He was fiscally a liberal.

and he cherrypicked intel and sent us to a war based on a lie and killed thousands of american servicemembers. In my lifetime, he is the worst president.

Zona, every intel along with Clinton stated that Bin Laden needed to be dealt with. If Clinton hadn't dummied down our own intel, you may have had a case.
You have a right to your opinion with where Bush stands as president....and I have my right to my opinion.

PS. I would have never pulled the trigger on Iraq....that was a mistake, Zona.

 

[The Rabbi]

It is beyond pathetic that you democrats can't get over an election you lost over a decade ago.

I think it's pathetic that anyone is still trying to paint Bush as a good president or that his stealing the election was a positive thing for America.

And I say that as a Republican.

The man was a fucking disaster. The only reason the GOP isn't completely extinct today and gone the way of the Whigs is that Obama has been an even bigger fucking disaster.

But some people never learn.

I think you need a reality check.
Unemployment never went above 6% under Bush, and was typically under 5%. We had a long period of growth after the 01 recession. We had no terrorist attacks on US soil after Bush started his War on Terror. In fact we degraded al Qaeda's ability to attack us. Clinton's strategy was to treat it as a police matter. The proof his policies were so good is that Obama,who had consistently denounced them as a candidate, ended up extending them as president.
Bush was hardly perfect and I opposed some of his policies. But he was a poltiical miracle worker compared to the yard ape in the White House now.
Bush did not steal any election. He was duly elected according to the law. No study has ever shown anything different than that.

 

[mudwhistle]

I loathed Bush as President. He was the first Republican I did not support for President. I thought he was the worst. But I believe he was fairly elected and was the rightful President.

I guess if Obama had an hostile press jumping on him for every bad occurance in the Universe he would be totally jacked up too.

 

[JakeStarkey]

I think he can win.

I think he has a very good shot at the nomination. And I think Obama is very vulnerable, which means that the GOP candidate can win. Because of Obama's vulnerability, I think most of the Republican candidates have a real shot. Perry is not as good of a general election candidate than Romney, but he still has a real shot.

I agree that he has a real possibility for a victory if he can get the nomination. The problem is that Romney is a good campaigner and he will hit Perry as hard or harder than Perry hits him. Perry is vulnerable. They all are vulnerable.

 

[oreo]

Finaly, Perry's choice of words come straight from the Texas Handbook of Politics. It works wonders at home and worked wonders for W in both elections. And if it wasn't for W, it might make a fantastic contrast to Obama. But because of the spectre of The False Texan Conservative of Elections Past, it will be a killer for him.

I tend to agree that this is a serious negative for him. After all the work the Republican base has done over the past 3 years re-branding itself as the Tea Party in order to distance itself from George W. Bush, to turn around and nominate a guy whose mannerisms and speech patterns immediately evoke visceral associations with Bush is risky. The fact that Perry attained his office by virtue of being Bush's lieutenant governor when W. departed for the White House probably won't help dispel the mental association.

When I'm tempted to give the average voter more credit, I think of how many folks can no longer distinguish Tina Fey's Sarah Palin from the actual Palin (granted, the distinctions between the two weren't as pronounced or exaggerated as some other spoofs, like Chevy Chase's Ford falls, which is alarming in and of itself).

Would be an interesting experiment, though.

Agreed--his loose canon mouth is going to keep him in trouble with independents in this country--and as we all know you need independents if you're going to win the general election.

Plus Perry--being from Texas is going to be painted with a G.W. Bush paint brush. There is no escaping that. And simply the name G.W. Bush is still toxic to millions of Americans.

 

[Unkotare]

I think it's pathetic that anyone is still trying to paint Bush as a good president or that his stealing the election was a positive thing for America.

And I say that as a Republican. .

You are not a Republican. Stop that silly little act.

Bush did not "steal" the election. Your guy lost. Get over it.

We weren't talking about good or bad, so put away that straw man.

You're really bad at this.

But far better than you, Mormon-boy.

Bush sucked as a president, and Republicans should be cursing his name.

When he stole the White House, the GOP had both houses of Congress and the Majority of State governorships.

When he left, Democrats owned all those things.

He did enormas damage to the party.

"Mormon-boy"... How fucking 'playground' can you get? I take issue with your bigotry against Mormons and you therefore label me "Mormon-boy." That is classic infantile bullshit. You are exactly the same as those racist idiots who obsess over African Americans. Exactly the same. Take issue with their pathetic racism and it's "Oh, you must be black" or "You are sleeping with black people" in response. You are exactly the same as them. Take issue with some nasty anti-homosexual bigot and it's "Oh yeah, gay-boy?" That shit is not only childish, but it is the shit dim-witted, unimaginative children resort to. Hopelessly juvenile and utterly illogical. YOU are exactly the same. Exactly.

Moving on: Put away your straw man, because President Bush's performance is not what we were talking about. Did you think that was a clever attempt at shifting the focus because you cannot support your asinine "He stole it!" bullshit? Pathetic.

For the 10th time, no one believes you are a Republican, so go tell your DNC handlers to come up with another story for you.

 

[Unkotare]

There is no real good reason for the electoral college to even still exist.

Just gonna keep repeating this ignorant refrain endlessly? Do you get paid by volume?

 

[JakeStarkey]

Thank heavens for the Electoral College. No one has ever given a good reason to end it.