NATO is an ALLIANCE based on COLLECTIVE SECURITY. Each NATO member pays for its own military forces regardless of where they are deployed in the world. That is how it has been for decades. U.S. forces in Europe along with other NATO forces contribute to the defense and deterrence of a Russian invasion of Europe. The United States defense of Europe is NOT a matter of charity. That United States does it because it is in the NATIONAL SECURITY INTEREST of the United States to defend Europe, the same as it would be South Korea or the U.S. mainland. Its been that way for over 70 years now.
The United States, Kurdish Allies, and other NATO forces have taken all territory held by ISIS and destroyed the Caliphate. But ISIS is still a force like Al Quada, hiding where it can, and trying to rebuild itself. NATO forces have rotated in and out of Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan. So have Australian forces. It only happens to be in the past year that there have only been U.S. troops on the ground in Syria. NATO and other coalition aircraft have been apart of patrolling the skies over Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. NATO does have ground troops on the ground in Afghanistan at the moment.
There was no risk to war with Turkey or Russia by staying in North Eastern Syria. Neither Russia, Syria, nor Turkey viewed it as worth it to risk war with the United States. Russia even tested the idea in 2018 by sending a large non-official group of Russian mercenary's to try and take over a Kurdish base. The Kurdish base happened to have a few members of the U.S. special forces. Together with the Kurds, they called in airstrikes on the attacking forces and killed over 300 Russian mercenary's in catch in the attack. Only one Kurdish soldier was wounded, non killed.
Its that type of firepower in coordination with Coalition Aircraft flying in the region and Kurdish and U.S. special forces on the ground which have kept Turkey, Syria and Russia from daring to challenge the U.S. position in northeastern Syria.
ISIS had been crushed and its remaining members were being chased down. The United States and the Kurds had a established a relatively stable area in North Eastern Syria, north of the Eurphrates River and south of the Turkey/Syria border. Now Trump has ruined that entirely by pulling U.S. forces from their positions and giving Turkey a green light to enter the area.
The NATO charter only goes into effect if there is an attack on the mainland territories in Europe and North America of the countries that are members. For example, in 1982 when Argentina invaded the Falkland Islands, it did bring about a NATO response because it was British territory in the far southern hemisphere. As long as any fighting between Turkey and Russia is in Syria, it would not legally bring in the NATO response. Russian airstrikes on Turkish land though would bring about a NATO response.
The probability of a Turkish/Russian fighting has increased though with the withdrawal of U.S. forces. Again, there were multiple reasons why keeping U.S. forces where they were was good for the entire region at the given time.
The Turkish invasion happened after the U.S. pullback and Trump giving the green light to Turkey. There would be no Turkish invasion right now if Trump had kept U.S. forces where they were and not given Turkey a green light to enter this party of Syria.
Other NATO forces have played a role in Syria in years past.
U.S. troops in Syria were not in harms way except in their mission to track down ISIS.
Thank you for your usual thoughtful response. I'll address your comments paragraph by paragraph:
p1: Agree that NATO is an alliance, that has successfully defended the EU for 70 years or so. However, NATO does do occasional away games, such as in AFG when needed. My points are, that the US borrows and spends about $24b a year to keep troops in the EU. The US can no longer afford to keep those troops there. The US defeated ISIS in Syria without significant help from NATO. I don't know why NATO wouldn't help in Syria, or why NATO won't help stop Turkey from invading Syria and killing Kurds. NATO members do have financial commitments to NATO, only 7 are meeting them.
NATO report: Only 7 members meeting defense spending targets - CNNPolitics
In the last (70) years Russia's economy has slowed such that it is now the size of Italy's or NY state's economy. It is being helped by gas purchases by Germany. So as Trump notes, we are borrowing money to defend the EU, and the EU is buying gas from Russia to fund their military, how stupid are we?
p2: no comment
p3: agree that the US killed about 300 Russian mercs, but disagree that there was no risk of war. If Erdogan attacked Syria, and the US troops were still there, after Erdogan warned them to get out, that could have risked a shooting war with Turkey. You assume that Turkey would not attack Syria if US troops are present. That is a very bad assumption. Erdogan is unpredictable.
p4: You're suggesting that Trump and Erdogan should have a steely-eyed showdown over Syria and the Kurds, knowing that Trump ran on getting us out of ME "endless wars". Erdogan would have attacked, and Trump would have been forced to respond. Who knows where that would end up? Turkey has a modern military, and has a home field advantage in Syria.
p5: Trump didn't give Turkey a green light. Erdogan said "we are invading Syria, please get out or risk casualties."
p6: use the same NATO Charter that allowed NATO to work collectively in AFG to keep the peace, to also keep the peace in Syria.
p7: Assad and the Kurds have an agreement to fight the Turks. The Russians might get into it as well, who knows? Complicating things is the cozy relationship between Russia and Turkey, such as buying Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missiles to defeat NATO planes.
Turkey bought Russian S-400 missiles designed to down NATO planes. For the US, that's a problem - CNN
Whose side is Turkey on? Are you sure?
p8: Turkey was going to invade Syria with or without the presence of 1,000 US "speed-bump" troops. Erdogan would say, I warned the Americans to leave, they very unwisely chose not to.
Trump saved US lives by leaving. If NATO wanted to get into that Syrian mess they would have, so NATO countries have no right to criticize Trump. He defeated ISIS, mission accomplished. No thanks to NATO.
PART 1:
The United States cannot afford to not have troops in Europe. In fact, in light of Russia's actions in the previous 5 years, the United States at a minimum should double the number of troops it has in Europe. The United States does not defend Europe as an act of charity. It defends Europe because the survival of the United States is dependent on it. It is not true that the United States defeated ISIS in Syria without significant help from other NATO countries. Other NATO countries currently fly air missions over Syria and NATO troops, particular French troops have had presence in Syria on the ground in past years.
NATO won't commit troops on the ground in Syria or in the air absent of U.S. involvement. The United States is by far the most powerful military in NATO and has resources, particular in logistics that are key to sustaining any other NATO country's intervention there. So Trump's foolish decision to withdraw the 2,000 U.S. troops in Syria essentially prevents any NATO involvement.
Your statement about the Russian economy is
FALSE. When adjusting for purchasing power parity, the Russian economy is the 6th largest in the world.
1
China $23,210,000,000,000
2
United States $19,490,000,000,000
3
India $9,474,000,000,000
4
Japan $5,443,000,000,000
5
Germany $4,199,000,000,000
6
Russia $4,016,000,000,000
7
Indonesia $3,250,000,000,000
8
Brazil $3,248,000,000,000
9
United Kingdom $2,925,000,000,000
10
France $2,856,000,000,000
11
Mexico $2,463,000,000,000
12
Italy $2,317,000,000,000
13
Turkey $2,186,000,000,000
14
Korea, South $2,035,000,000,000
15
Spain $1,778,000,000,000
16
Saudi Arabia $1,775,000,000,000
17
Canada $1,774,000,000,000
18
Iran $1,640,000,000,000
19
Australia $1,248,000,000,000
20
Thailand $1,236,000,000,000
As you can see, Russia's economy is nearly twice the size of Italy's and nearly as large as Germany's economy. In any event, raw military capabilities matter far more than economic size has history has so often shown in the past.
PART 2/3: Erdogan is predictable based on his past years of experience and refusal to move Turkish troops into areas where U.S. troops are located. No other country in NATO would support Turkey foolishly attacking U.S. troops in Syria. Turkish troops would be thrown back with heavy losses and then face isolation and economic sanctions from the rest of Europe. Erdogan is not that dumb. Any Turkish operation against the Kurds with U.S. troops in place would FAIL, do heavy damage to the Turkish armed forces and extensive damage to the Turkish economy. In fact, such a move would probably bring about Erdogan removal from power through a coup afterwards.
PART 4: For nearly 3 years, Trump has kept to nearly all of the United States prior middle east commitments, which is good despite his isolationist statements during the campaign and after the campaign. TRUMP and Erdogan have already had the showdown and the Turks wisely blinked. If Trump had kept U.S. troops there, there would be no Turkish invasion of northeastern Syria.
Most of the Turkish military uses outdated equipment by U.S. standards. They do have some modern equipment in some areas, but not in large numbers. Their most modern Tank, the German LeopardIIA4 is not considered modern enough for them which is why they wanted Germany to upgrade the tank to LeopardIIA7 standards but Germany refused. Turkey has a modern economy and society, but that makes it vulnerable to U.S. attacks on water systems and electricity. When the United States turned off the water and electricity in Serbia during the 1999, Kosovo War, it generated popular resentment among Serbians against their own leaders which led to the conclusion of the conflict, and not to long later to Slobondon Milisovic being removed from power internally.
PART 5: Not true, Donald Trump green lighted the Syrian operation and agreed to pull out U.S. troops. If Erdogan did not care, he would have invaded north eastern Syria years ago.
PART 6: the NATO charter was invoked with respect to Afghanistan because New York City and Washington D.C. were attacked by forces within Afghanistan.
PART 7: There would not be any agreement by the Kurds with the Russians and Assad if Trump had kept the troops in place. The Kurds only turned to Assad and the Russians after Trump green lighted the Turkish invasion and pulled U.S. troops out.
PART 8: No evidence of this at all. No attacks by Turkey at all for years when U.S. troops were in place in north eastern Syria. Its not just the 2,000 U.S. troops on the ground in Syria, but also the Kurdish forces, U.S. airpower, plus what the United States could bring to the region rather quickly in terms of more Air Power and ground troops. There is also the weakness in the ability of the Turks to defend their country from U.S. Air and Missile attacks and well as cyber attacks on the country's water and electricity systems. Then there is the threat of a coup to unseat Erdogan from power.
PART 9: As Linsey Graham said today, Trump has let ISIS out of its prisons and if any American citizens are killed anywhere in the world by ISIS forces from Syria, it will be Trump's fault. ISIS is a group that is trying to launch a 9/11 scale attack on the United States mainland and Trump's actions in Syria over the past week just made that more likely. The United States with the Kurds and help of other NATO countries retook all of the Syrian territory that was controlled by ISIS. But ISIS was not totally destroyed yet. It now has a chance to make a comeback because of Trump's actions. This has put Americans lives far more at risk. Trump has in just one week, created a huge mess and serious threat to the United States by pulling out U.S. troops.