Jim, this is another replay of 2012, when many threads were explaining how Romney was going to win easily. The arguments then were also essentially subjective, i.e., "the polls are wrong, and people won't vote for Obama because they shouldn't want to, in my opinion".
What voters hate, and that's a large portion of your argument, is baked into the polls already. Online enthusiasm, ditto.
The only facts that matter to any degree between now and the election are the polls in the swing states.
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MAC I remember the bullshit arguments people were making, but how do you simply dismiss the over sampling of Democrats, the 'tweaking' of the polls in point 2, and the reliance on data polling samples known to be skewed against Trump all year so far and that is registered previous voters?
Trump does not equate to Romney. Trump is appealing to a much wider section of the electorate than Romney's 52% and Trump is not going to suddenly stop campaigning like Romney did either. Plus Romney had no appeal to the more populist end of the conservative elitist-to-populism spectrum, again completely unlike Romney.
Other than that Romney is from the same party as Trump, they have little in common.
Or is it that you just think no Republican can ever again win the White House?
There was all kinds of poll parsing back in 2012, and much of it seemed relatively reasonable & plausible. Then, once the ballots were counted, it turned out that professional pollsters had a better grasp of their profession than Republicans did. Is it different this time? It could be, I guess, but 2012 left a pretty indelible mark on my memory, and I'd need to see it to believe it.
I think that Republicans could easily beaten Hillary by running Kasich/Rubio. The Dems are running the most vulnerable candidate they could have come up with, and the GOP has brilliantly responded by shooting themselves in the foot while jumping over a cliff.
A sane, moderate Republican administration might have convinced America that the GOP had the answers, and the pendulum may have begun to swing back. Instead, 40% of the party allowed themselves to be convinced that such a ticket isn't pure enough and blew the party's golden opportunity.
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