JimBowie1958
Old Fogey
- Sep 25, 2011
- 63,590
- 16,753
- 2,220
There are solid reasons for believing that Trump *Can* win, but I think he *will* win, and here is why.
1. Trump has more healthy energy than Hillary Clinton does. Trump is out having a couple of rallies in a single day and having multiple interviews while Hillary has not had even one full blown news conference in almost a year. This difference in energy is huge for a campaign and as Trump settles down to the reality that the Media would like to put his head on a pike in the Washington Mall, he is learning to more more reticent. This bodes well for any candidate three months from Election Day.
2. The polls are 'tweaked to favor Hillary by a media that is totally committed to seeing her win. Here is one example:
Hillary Lead Over Trump Surges After Reuters "Tweaks" Poll | Zero Hedge
Over the past week, there was a troubling development for the establishment: Trump was soaring in the polls. In fact, in the widely watched, Reuters/IPSOS poll, for the first time Trump had taken an inexcusable 1 point lead following the Republican National convention.
So, as we reported last night, something had to be done. And something was done: Reuters "tweaked" its polling methodology.
As Reuters explained, "in a presidential campaign notable for its negativity, the option of “Neither” candidate appears to be an appealing alternative, at least to participants in the Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll. Many voters on both sides have been ambivalent in their support for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican nominee Donald Trump, complicating the task of the pollsters trying to track the race. That sentiment may help explain an apparent skew that recently emerged in the Reuters/Ipsos poll results. Given the choice, a relatively large group of voters opted for “Neither/Other” candidate compared with other major polls, leading to an underreporting of several percentage points for one or other of the two major contenders at times in the race."
In other words, the real reason for the "tweak" was to push Hillary back in the lead simply due to a change in the question phrasing methodology.
With the first new poll under the new polling "approach" due to be released last night, we predicted that it would show a dramatic rebound for Hillary, just as Trump was picking up steam, and in doing so changing the entire frontrunner narrative from the ground up.
Sure enough, here are the results of the "revised" poll released on Friday night.
Other tweaks found are A) over representing Democrats in the sample, and B) only using registered voters who voted in the last Presidential election. Both of these are known to diminish Trumps support showing up in the polls.
3) There is a huge difference in enthusiasm for Trump vrs Clinton. Trump attends rallies with thousands and thousands of people, while the press ballyhoos 50 people turning out for Hillary. 50. People.
4) Americans are sick to death of the Professional Political Class, especially the talentless and moronic Talking Heads on TV. The media are completely committed to keeping Trump out of the White House as he leads/represents this unwashed mass of people. This is working in Trumps favor by bringing in new voters who have been sick of this nonsense for decades.
5) Trump is dominating in social media, and though this does not prove Trump will win like this guy does here: SPREAD THIS: Media RIGGING The Polls, Hiding New Evidence Proving Trump Is WINNING it is an interesting contrast where Hillary is not getting half the fervor that Trump is and the Democrats are supposed to be the high tech party, lol.
6) The Corporate Crony Network is solidly backing Hillary, it is obvious, and people HATE the Corporate Crony Network and for good reason too; they are the reason that American wages have been stagnant since 1970.
7) Hillary Clinton is as crooked and dishonest as any politician I have ever read about, worse than LBJ was. People are sick to death of lying, conniving, professional politicians that have done nothing concrete in their whole lives.
Summation; Hillary's numbers will start to tank and she loses to Trump in another shocking landslide like Carter did to Reagan did after months of Reagan being lied about by the Media almost exactly like these shitstains are doing to Trump.
1. Trump has more healthy energy than Hillary Clinton does. Trump is out having a couple of rallies in a single day and having multiple interviews while Hillary has not had even one full blown news conference in almost a year. This difference in energy is huge for a campaign and as Trump settles down to the reality that the Media would like to put his head on a pike in the Washington Mall, he is learning to more more reticent. This bodes well for any candidate three months from Election Day.
2. The polls are 'tweaked to favor Hillary by a media that is totally committed to seeing her win. Here is one example:
Hillary Lead Over Trump Surges After Reuters "Tweaks" Poll | Zero Hedge
Over the past week, there was a troubling development for the establishment: Trump was soaring in the polls. In fact, in the widely watched, Reuters/IPSOS poll, for the first time Trump had taken an inexcusable 1 point lead following the Republican National convention.
So, as we reported last night, something had to be done. And something was done: Reuters "tweaked" its polling methodology.
As Reuters explained, "in a presidential campaign notable for its negativity, the option of “Neither” candidate appears to be an appealing alternative, at least to participants in the Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll. Many voters on both sides have been ambivalent in their support for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican nominee Donald Trump, complicating the task of the pollsters trying to track the race. That sentiment may help explain an apparent skew that recently emerged in the Reuters/Ipsos poll results. Given the choice, a relatively large group of voters opted for “Neither/Other” candidate compared with other major polls, leading to an underreporting of several percentage points for one or other of the two major contenders at times in the race."
As a result, Reuters/Ipsos is amending the wording of the choice and eliminating the word “Neither,” bringing the option in line with other polls.
Here is the real reason for the methodology change: according to Reuters "the inclusion of the word “Neither” is capturing Soft Trump supporters who, if given such an option, prefer not to make a choice. Here it is important to note that the soft supporter phenomenon also affects Clinton, but to a much lesser degree."
As a result, the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll - pre Friday evening - had Trump 40.2%, Clinton 38.5%, but, on a "pro forma" basis,eliminating "Neither" from the "Neither/Other" answer produced a different result. In that case, Clinton was ahead, 40% to 36%.
Here is the real reason for the methodology change: according to Reuters "the inclusion of the word “Neither” is capturing Soft Trump supporters who, if given such an option, prefer not to make a choice. Here it is important to note that the soft supporter phenomenon also affects Clinton, but to a much lesser degree."
As a result, the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll - pre Friday evening - had Trump 40.2%, Clinton 38.5%, but, on a "pro forma" basis,eliminating "Neither" from the "Neither/Other" answer produced a different result. In that case, Clinton was ahead, 40% to 36%.
In other words, the real reason for the "tweak" was to push Hillary back in the lead simply due to a change in the question phrasing methodology.
With the first new poll under the new polling "approach" due to be released last night, we predicted that it would show a dramatic rebound for Hillary, just as Trump was picking up steam, and in doing so changing the entire frontrunner narrative from the ground up.
Sure enough, here are the results of the "revised" poll released on Friday night.
From Reuters: Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton held a 6- percentage-point lead over Republican rival Donald Trump, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll with new wording that was released on Friday, the day after she formally accepted her party's nomination for the Nov. 8 election.
Nearly 41 percent of likely voters favor Clinton, 35 percent favor Trump, and 25 percent picked "Other," according to the new July 25-29 online poll of 1,043 likely voters, which overlapped with the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia. The poll has a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.
The presidential tracking poll reflects a slight change of wording from previous surveys, replacing the “Neither/Other” option given to respondents with just “Other.” An internal review had found the word “Neither” has, at times, siphoned support away from one or the other candidate.Nearly 41 percent of likely voters favor Clinton, 35 percent favor Trump, and 25 percent picked "Other," according to the new July 25-29 online poll of 1,043 likely voters, which overlapped with the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia. The poll has a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.
Other tweaks found are A) over representing Democrats in the sample, and B) only using registered voters who voted in the last Presidential election. Both of these are known to diminish Trumps support showing up in the polls.
3) There is a huge difference in enthusiasm for Trump vrs Clinton. Trump attends rallies with thousands and thousands of people, while the press ballyhoos 50 people turning out for Hillary. 50. People.
4) Americans are sick to death of the Professional Political Class, especially the talentless and moronic Talking Heads on TV. The media are completely committed to keeping Trump out of the White House as he leads/represents this unwashed mass of people. This is working in Trumps favor by bringing in new voters who have been sick of this nonsense for decades.
5) Trump is dominating in social media, and though this does not prove Trump will win like this guy does here: SPREAD THIS: Media RIGGING The Polls, Hiding New Evidence Proving Trump Is WINNING it is an interesting contrast where Hillary is not getting half the fervor that Trump is and the Democrats are supposed to be the high tech party, lol.
6) The Corporate Crony Network is solidly backing Hillary, it is obvious, and people HATE the Corporate Crony Network and for good reason too; they are the reason that American wages have been stagnant since 1970.
7) Hillary Clinton is as crooked and dishonest as any politician I have ever read about, worse than LBJ was. People are sick to death of lying, conniving, professional politicians that have done nothing concrete in their whole lives.
Summation; Hillary's numbers will start to tank and she loses to Trump in another shocking landslide like Carter did to Reagan did after months of Reagan being lied about by the Media almost exactly like these shitstains are doing to Trump.
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