Why I think That Trump Will Win the General Election

[Toro]

Perhaps Trump will win, but "conservatives" are making the exact same arguments they made four years ago.

Trump is making exactly the opposite arguments from what Romney made 4 years ago, Rip.

And doing worse.

No, that is merely your opinion he is doing worse.

There is an entirely different attitude toward him outside the Professional Political Class Echo Chamber.

Polls taken of Likely voters that include people who have never voted before show a 10%+ slide in Trumps favor over the polls that are of only Registered voters who voted in the last Presidential election. Using an a distribution of Democrats, independents, liberals, conservatives, moderates and independents that reflect the general population and Trump is still tight with Clinton, and that bodes poorly for Hillary. With her name recognition nad 30 years in the public eye, she should not have a close race with Trump at all.

Your analysis is nonsense, and you are doing exactly what Mac is saying you are doing. You are convincing yourself that it's closer than it really is because your candidate is getting crushed. There is no demographic of political affiliation. Most pollsters don't use it, and never have.

At this time in August of 2012, Romney was trailing by 4.5% in the RCP averages. Two weeks after the convention, he was trailing by 3.5%. Today, in August and two weeks after the conventions, Trump is trailing by 7.5%.

That is an empirical fact. But you won't believe it because you are convincing yourself of the exact same nonsense Republicans told themselves four years ago.

 

[Toro]

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[JimBowie1958]

Your analysis is nonsense, .

It isnt nonsense just because you dont grasp it, dude.

 

[Mac1958]

You were here in 2012. Romney supporters were constantly saying the polls were wrong, that they were skewed, that they under-sampled and over-sampled, that Romney was going to win going away. Just like now.
.

Was Romney a populist?

Was Romney promising to change the tax structure to lure over seas money back to America?

Was Romney promising to refocus our national policies on keeping Americans able to work?

No, they were not the same arguments or style of candidate either.

I've never said anything comparing the candidates. I'm talking about the behavior of Republican voters in both 2016 and 2012. It has nothing to do with anything else.

In both cases, they claimed the polls were wrong, that their guy was going to win.

I think this is pretty common knowledge here, and it wouldn't take much effort to search and find threads from 2012 that did exactly what I'm saying.

In fact, here are just a few examples from 2012. Lots of "the polls are wrong" and "Romney will win because I don't think people should vote for Obama":

Are we approaching a Romney blowout?
The Real Poll Data
Barone: Romney Will Win 315 Electoral Votes
‘The Bradley Effect’ Predicts a Huge Win for Romney
POLLING PROPAGANDISTS: The Walter Shapiro, Taegan Goddard and Doug Mataconis Edition
Obama Is Losing And Everyone In His Campaign Knows It
Democratic pollsters admit polls are skewed against Romney. The polls are LYING to U
Unskewed Polling Data
Why Romney Will Win
Stupid media tricks produce poll favoring Obama
Romney winner Polls were biased!!!!

Just as I said.
.

 

[Roudy]

You were here in 2012. Romney supporters were constantly saying the polls were wrong, that they were skewed, that they under-sampled and over-sampled, that Romney was going to win going away. Just like now.
.

Was Romney a populist?

Was Romney promising to change the tax structure to lure over seas money back to America?

Was Romney promising to refocus our national policies on keeping Americans able to work?

No, they were not the same arguments or style of candidate either.

And even then the Democrats managed to paint Romney as a sexist and racist who wants to put poor people and blacks back in chains.

 

[Toro]

Your analysis is nonsense, .

It isnt nonsense just because you dont grasp it, dude.

I fully grasp it.

It's nonsense.

 

[Toro]

You were here in 2012. Romney supporters were constantly saying the polls were wrong, that they were skewed, that they under-sampled and over-sampled, that Romney was going to win going away. Just like now.
.

Was Romney a populist?

Was Romney promising to change the tax structure to lure over seas money back to America?

Was Romney promising to refocus our national policies on keeping Americans able to work?

No, they were not the same arguments or style of candidate either.

I've never said anything comparing the candidates. I'm talking about the behavior of Republican voters in both 2016 and 2012. It has nothing to do with anything else.

In both cases, they claimed the polls were wrong, that their guy was going to win.

I think this is pretty common knowledge here, and it wouldn't take much effort to search and find threads from 2012 that did exactly what I'm saying.

In fact, here are just a few examples from 2012. Lots of "the polls are wrong" and "Romney will win because I don't think people should vote for Obama":

Are we approaching a Romney blowout?
The Real Poll Data
Barone: Romney Will Win 315 Electoral Votes
‘The Bradley Effect’ Predicts a Huge Win for Romney
POLLING PROPAGANDISTS: The Walter Shapiro, Taegan Goddard and Doug Mataconis Edition
Obama Is Losing And Everyone In His Campaign Knows It
Democratic pollsters admit polls are skewed against Romney. The polls are LYING to U
Unskewed Polling Data
Why Romney Will Win
Stupid media tricks produce poll favoring Obama
Romney winner Polls were biased!!!!

Just as I said.
.

Exactly.

And Jim is doing it here in his own thread.

 

[Roudy]

You were here in 2012. Romney supporters were constantly saying the polls were wrong, that they were skewed, that they under-sampled and over-sampled, that Romney was going to win going away. Just like now.
.

Was Romney a populist?

Was Romney promising to change the tax structure to lure over seas money back to America?

Was Romney promising to refocus our national policies on keeping Americans able to work?

No, they were not the same arguments or style of candidate either.

I've never said anything comparing the candidates. I'm talking about the behavior of Republican voters in both 2016 and 2012. It has nothing to do with anything else.

In both cases, they claimed the polls were wrong, that their guy was going to win.

I think this is pretty common knowledge here, and it wouldn't take much effort to search and find threads from 2012 that did exactly what I'm saying.

In fact, here are just a few examples from 2012. Lots of "the polls are wrong" and "Romney will win because I don't think people should vote for Obama":

Are we approaching a Romney blowout?
The Real Poll Data
Barone: Romney Will Win 315 Electoral Votes
‘The Bradley Effect’ Predicts a Huge Win for Romney
POLLING PROPAGANDISTS: The Walter Shapiro, Taegan Goddard and Doug Mataconis Edition
Obama Is Losing And Everyone In His Campaign Knows It
Democratic pollsters admit polls are skewed against Romney. The polls are LYING to U
Unskewed Polling Data
Why Romney Will Win
Stupid media tricks produce poll favoring Obama
Romney winner Polls were biased!!!!

Just as I said.
.

The polls in this case are a little off, many people who are Trump supporters are silent about it.

But not off enough to make up for the current spread.

 

[Skylar]

Perhaps Trump will win, but "conservatives" are making the exact same arguments they made four years ago.

Trump is making exactly the opposite arguments from what Romney made 4 years ago, Rip.

And doing worse.

No, that is merely your opinion he is doing worse.

There is an entirely different attitude toward him outside the Professional Political Class Echo Chamber.

Polls taken of Likely voters that include people who have never voted before show a 10%+ slide in Trumps favor over the polls that are of only Registered voters who voted in the last Presidential election. Using an a distribution of Democrats, independents, liberals, conservatives, moderates and independents that reflect the general population and Trump is still tight with Clinton, and that bodes poorly for Hillary. With her name recognition nad 30 years in the public eye, she should not have a close race with Trump at all.

Your analysis is nonsense, and you are doing exactly what Mac is saying you are doing. You are convincing yourself that it's closer than it really is because your candidate is getting crushed. There is no demographic of political affiliation. Most pollsters don't use it, and never have.

At this time in August of 2012, Romney was trailing by 4.5% in the RCP averages. Two weeks after the convention, he was trailing by 3.5%. Today, in August and two weeks after the conventions, Trump is trailing by 7.5%.

That is an empirical fact. But you won't believe it because you are convincing yourself of the exact same nonsense Republicans told themselves four years ago.

"Oversampling" is a loser's whine. The Democrats did in 2004, insisting that the pollsters were oversampling conservatives in Kerry's race against Bush. Republicans did it in 2008 and 2012 when they insisted that pollsters were oversampling left leaning folks in McCain and Romney's race for the white house.

It doesn't play out for one simple reason: self identification reflects the election. More people self identify as republican or conservative in years that republicans win. More people self identify as democrats in years where democrats win.

Its not a polling error. Its a reflection of the actual will of the electorate.

 

[JimBowie1958]

You were here in 2012. Romney supporters were constantly saying the polls were wrong, that they were skewed, that they under-sampled and over-sampled, that Romney was going to win going away. Just like now.
.

Was Romney a populist?

Was Romney promising to change the tax structure to lure over seas money back to America?

Was Romney promising to refocus our national policies on keeping Americans able to work?

No, they were not the same arguments or style of candidate either.

I've never said anything comparing the candidates. I'm talking about the behavior of Republican voters in both 2016 and 2012. It has nothing to do with anything else.

In both cases, they claimed the polls were wrong, that their guy was going to win.

I think this is pretty common knowledge here, and it wouldn't take much effort to search and find threads from 2012 that did exactly what I'm saying.

In fact, here are just a few examples from 2012. Lots of "the polls are wrong" and "Romney will win because I don't think people should vote for Obama":

Are we approaching a Romney blowout?
The Real Poll Data
Barone: Romney Will Win 315 Electoral Votes
‘The Bradley Effect’ Predicts a Huge Win for Romney
POLLING PROPAGANDISTS: The Walter Shapiro, Taegan Goddard and Doug Mataconis Edition
Obama Is Losing And Everyone In His Campaign Knows It
Democratic pollsters admit polls are skewed against Romney. The polls are LYING to U
Unskewed Polling Data
Why Romney Will Win
Stupid media tricks produce poll favoring Obama
Romney winner Polls were biased!!!!

Just as I said.
.

I realize you are talking about how some GOPers are spinning the polls.

What I am saying is that there is good grounds to question the veracity of the polling this time around as the methods and targeted demographics this time around are very very different and there is direct evidence of shenanigans, for example Reuters little trick of dropping the 'Neither' category that boosted Hillarys standing by about 6%.

 

[Skylar]

You were here in 2012. Romney supporters were constantly saying the polls were wrong, that they were skewed, that they under-sampled and over-sampled, that Romney was going to win going away. Just like now.
.

Was Romney a populist?

Was Romney promising to change the tax structure to lure over seas money back to America?

Was Romney promising to refocus our national policies on keeping Americans able to work?

No, they were not the same arguments or style of candidate either.

I've never said anything comparing the candidates. I'm talking about the behavior of Republican voters in both 2016 and 2012. It has nothing to do with anything else.

In both cases, they claimed the polls were wrong, that their guy was going to win.

I think this is pretty common knowledge here, and it wouldn't take much effort to search and find threads from 2012 that did exactly what I'm saying.

In fact, here are just a few examples from 2012. Lots of "the polls are wrong" and "Romney will win because I don't think people should vote for Obama":

Are we approaching a Romney blowout?
The Real Poll Data
Barone: Romney Will Win 315 Electoral Votes
‘The Bradley Effect’ Predicts a Huge Win for Romney
POLLING PROPAGANDISTS: The Walter Shapiro, Taegan Goddard and Doug Mataconis Edition
Obama Is Losing And Everyone In His Campaign Knows It
Democratic pollsters admit polls are skewed against Romney. The polls are LYING to U
Unskewed Polling Data
Why Romney Will Win
Stupid media tricks produce poll favoring Obama
Romney winner Polls were biased!!!!

Just as I said.
.

I realize you are talking about how some GOPers are spinning the polls.

What I am saying is that there is good grounds to question the veracity of the polling this time around as the methods and targeted demographics this time around are very very different and there is direct evidence of shenanigans, for example Reuters little trick of dropping the 'Neither' category that boosted Hillarys standing by about 6%.

The losing side always whines about how the polling is skewed. And they always insist that while polling accurately predicted previous elections, *this* time is special.

No, it isn't.

If this were a single poll, your 'shenanigans' schtick might have some veracity. But this is a dozen polls by disparate agencies, national polls, state polls, all of which point in the exact same direction.

And has past elections have demonstrated again and again, the losers ignore the polls at their own peril. Exactly as you're doing right now.

 

[cereal_killer]

I'll throw my hat in the ring and say he will not only win...he will win in a landslide.

 

[JimBowie1958]

The losing side always whines about how the polling is skewed. And they always insist that while polling accurately predicted previous elections, *this* time is special.

No, it isn't.

Yes it is, and I have explained my reasons several times and not a single libtard or objection has been presented that had a single fact to support it.

FACT: The past does not determine the future. You morons keep arguing that since some objected to the polls in 2008 and 2012, this is the same. No, it is not and your claim does not even amount to a fact or reasonable assertion.

FACT: Trump is a populist drawing in a compeltely different demographic than Romney and McCain did. You can deny it all you want but it is a simple FACT.

FACT: Trump is much more popular among all likely voters than those who voted in the last PResidential election. Simply a FACT.

FACT; Hillary is such a weak candidate she can only win by two lines of 'argument'; first that Trump is much worse than she is, and secondly that her win is inevitable.

That sort of shit works with gullible Democrats but not with most Americans.

 

[Skylar]

I'll throw my hat in the ring and say he will not only win...he will win in a landslide.

And when he doesn't will you admit that your capacity for rational judgment is pretty piss poor?

As again, the evidence contradicting your conclusions is overwhelming. Making your claims not simply a bad guess. But a rejection of evidence as a basis of prediction.

Which historically has a *reaaaaaaaaally* bad record of success. In both elections and real life.

 

[JimBowie1958]

I'll throw my hat in the ring and say he will not only win...he will win in a landslide.

Yeah, it is growing more and more obvious too with each passing week.

The medias massive lie campaigns against Trump have a diminishing rate of return as people find out that the media has lied and become inured to the medias lies.

Trump has more energy and can do far more baby kissing than Hillary can at the moment.

Hillary is a lawless Crony of Corproations and has their unified support because they fear Trump and the more the corporate owned media attacks him, the more obvious it is.

 

[JimBowie1958]

And when he doesn't will you admit that your capacity for rational judgment is pretty piss poor?

If his arguments are 'piss poor' why cant you point out why they are so poor now?

Why do you have to wait for a lucky election result to support your ignorant claims?

 

[cereal_killer]

I'll throw my hat in the ring and say he will not only win...he will win in a landslide.

And when he doesn't will you admit that your capacity for rational judgment is pretty piss poor?

As again, the evidence contradicting your conclusions is overwhelming. Making your claims not simply a bad guess. But a rejection of evidence as a basis of prediction.

Which historically has a *reaaaaaaaaally* bad record of success. In both elections and real life.

absolutely. If, and that's a BIG if, I'm wrong I will fully admit my spidey senses were severely impaired this election. If he wins will you freely admit you were clueless and in denial?

 

[JimBowie1958]

absolutely. If, and that's a BIG if, I'm wrong I will fully admit my spidey senses were severely impaired this election. If he wins will you freely admit you were clueless and in denial?

You dont need to worry about it.

 

[Skylar]

The losing side always whines about how the polling is skewed. And they always insist that while polling accurately predicted previous elections, *this* time is special.

No, it isn't.

Yes it is, and I have explained my reasons several times and not a single libtard or objection has been presented that had a single fact to support it.

No, it isn't. This election is not special, the polling is not special, the situation is not special. You *want* it to be special because your entire basis of prediction is predicated on ignoring overwhelming evidence.

Your desires don't determine reality. No matter how hard you want to believe.

FACT: The past does not determine the future. You morons keep arguing that since some objected to the polls in 2008 and 2012, this is the same. No, it is not and your claim does not even amount to a fact or reasonable assertion.

FACT: the past gives us our best indications of the future. While not absolute they have a record of success that is far better than guessing.

This is especially true since we're dealing with multiple data points from multiple sources. Making any individual process error the cause of inaccurate results increasingly unlikely. As we're talking about a dozen polls .....all pointing in the exact same direction.

And its not Trump's.

FACT: Trump is a populist drawing in a compeltely different demographic than Romney and McCain did. You can deny it all you want but it is a simple FACT.

And as the polls indicate, Trump isn't drawing nearly enough of them. You've illogically equated different with more. They aren't the necessarily same thing.

You're offering us classic confirmatin bias. Where you ignore any evidence that contradicts what you want to believe. And you cling to anything, no matter how tenuous or poorly supported, that affirms what you want to believe.

Confirmation Bias is a classic fallacy of logic for a reason: it produces inferior results.

 

[cereal_killer]

absolutely. If, and that's a BIG if, I'm wrong I will fully admit my spidey senses were severely impaired this election. If he wins will you freely admit you were clueless and in denial?

You dont need to worry about it.

Ha! I'm not in the least. I'm very confident that he will win in a landslide. The ONLY thing that is going to change my mind is if he falls apart in the debates. Other than that, he has it locked up and will win bigly