I think the first one — inflation making it difficult for the middle class to buy groceries and gasoline — will have the most effect of those three choices. The other two will be primarily reasons for Republicans to vote as they would have anyway.
That first one, and other questionable attributes of Democrats such as directing their negro and queer political agendas towards schoolchildren, their illegal mass importation of foreign residents and their endless divisive rhetoric, will have an effect, particularly on independents (or "swing voters").
I suspect there's a third factor being overlooked — government influence. Since Biden has been in power there has been several bills and executive orders he's signed designed to influence future elections (using taxpayer money from all citizens).
First of, he signed an executive order that CRT (critical race theory) / DIE (diversity, inclusion and equity) ideology be aggressively trained throughout the federal government.
He also signed an executive order instructing political allies he appointed to positions of power in government to all work to help the Democratic Party agenda in upcoming elections (they were ordered to each submit plans to him on how they can use their department to help).
Through the major spending bills an enormous amount of money was funneled to community activist groups throughout the county, especially in cities. Both new and existing organizations were given money that primarily is being spent on salaries so they can devote their efforts to supporting Democrats and their voters. This army will have a significant effect on generating (farming) votes before and on election day.
Students motivated by gratitude that their student loans were paid off will join the effort to elect more Democrats.
These won't show in the media polls but I suspect these examples of Democrats abusing the power of government to influence elections in their favor will more than offset the votes of independents against Biden and his Democrats.
