I didn't suggest it was a negative.
What fields would those be that they'll be moving into, Kevin?
My apologies then, it seemed as if you were suggesting it would be a negative.
As to what fields they would get into, I don't claim to be omniscient and able to predict the complex workings of the market, as our betters at our central bank seem to think they're able to do. I especially can't make such a bold prediction as to where displaced doctors or lawyers would go if they were put out of business en masse by future technological advancements. Though I think I'll go on record now in saying that they'll probably apply for their fair share of government subsidies before they move into an area where there is an actual demand.
You're basically evading the question, you know.
I don't really blame you everyone I mention this to (mostly pols and technologists) poo-poos this problem, too. Of couse they're all employed.
Right now, about one in eight workers are already redundant.
By 2050, I'm betting it's going to be about half the population who are no longer economically viable because they cannot possible get the skills that are needed.
And even if they do have those skills, so few of them will be necessary because those fewer lower-skilled billets will be filled.
Even today, a couple strokes of the legilative pen and much of what lawyers do can be done by clerks, right now, just as one example.
So finding technical solutions to things like title searches and other low skill "lawyering" tasks (which often make up a lot of the bread and butter of many law firms) seems highly probable to me.
Much of what doctors do (particularly re: diagnostics) can be done by asking germane questions to the patient.
Any serious computer programer could create an intake program that would eliminate the need for many intake doctors.
UNDER-employment and unemployment are already evident because of amazing productivity increases, thanks to technology.
For example, I can now do
alone what we once paid five people to do for Rosetta. That was about 12 years ago, FYI.
This is a problem that, as yet, we are pretending is going to be solved by retraining and more education, but that's
preposterous.
But retraining (at least many of us, if not
most of us, over time) is
Training for what, exactly?
It seems unlikely that human IQs are going to rise quickly enough to make ALL of us suited for advanced particle physics, know what I mean?
And let's face it, even physicists are not
all rocket scientists, either!
Part of what is straining our society right now is that people willing to work cannot find work that pays them enough to BE economically viable..
That problem is only going to get worse, and amigo, that problem WILL work its way up the employment food chain, too.
Almost 500 years ago, a person with my surname worked as what I suspect was probably a computer at Charles University.
Think that quirky genius could find work, today, doing that special skill ( rapid computation) which probably seemed like magic, back then?
How long before computer programs can edit people's writing at least as well, if not better than today's editors?
And please, let's ask ourselves what the technicians who used to work in Wall Street's back officers are doing today, shall we?
I can tell you what one of them did when he found that his enormously complex skills were replaced.
He opened up a tobacco kiosk in the same place where he used to pull down a wonderful salary. Perhaps he should have taken up ballet or partical physics, but he was a tad over the hill for those.
Oh, yeah, amigo, this social problem is NOT going away.
So it does make sense, perhaps, to start asking ourselves how we can ALL continue to benefit from increases in productivity when huge percentages of the population are becoming unemployable.
Or ...
we can continue pretending that all those people are worthless and lazy and just wait until the select human beings who aren't unemployed by technology own everything because the rest of us aren't worth anything to the market, and have all gone broke.
Oh, yeah, that's right, starving people probably won't wait that long, will they?
Perhaps they'll all decide that they're just losers and off themselves. Isn't that the Libertopian solution to this kind of problem?
What do you think, Kev?
Would you, finding yourself unable to find work, just decide you were a loser and kill yourself for the betterment of the remaining productive workers?
I'm kinda guessing you wouldn't.
At least I hope you wouldn't.
tick tock, dude.
Welcome to the world of the future.