I agree with you to the extent that it is a war, but while COVID-19 is extremely contagious, it is not very deadly.
COVID-19 is not as deadly as the normal flu we see every year, and ignore without even noticing?!
The normal flu season kills 40,000 to 60,000 Americans every year. Burden of Influenza
COVID-19 won't even be as deadly as the swine flu was in 2009, that killed 12,500, under Obama's admin.
Today there are 458 deaths attributed to COVID-19, and that is without any therapies like:
Hydroxychloroquine, chloroquine and other potential COVID-19 treatments explained | TechCrunch
During two of this week's White House briefings, President Trump referred specifically to two potential treatments that have been identified by medicaltechcrunch.com
I'm hoping that your pushing for a 5-week economic shutdown isn't politically motivated just to help Sleazy Joe?
How deadly a pathogen is, is determined by the rate of death for THOSE INFECTED!
The Flu has a death rate of about .1% at its highest. The coronavirus has a death rate of 4.4% based on the latest global infection and death numbers.
So this is 44 more times deadly than the seasonal flu!
PLUS THERE IS NO VACCINE!
IF you allow a pathogen to spread that is 44 times more deadly than seasonal flu, with no vaccine available, you are going to kill millions of people around the world. Lockdown is the response to this problem.
In 2009 with H1N1, there was a vaccine. I know because I received it.
That is the percentage of known cases but the number could be much lower because the accuracy is off because we do not truly know the amount that has been infected.
So that percentage you are using is a estimate and should never be used as a hard core fact.
Also doing as you want would collapse the World Economy, so it is not happening and to demand something so stupid, well is expected by those like you.
When dealing with a pandemic, you plan for worse case situations. If you end up overreacting. That's ok, given the nature of the threat. The economy will return to normal. Fuck any asshole who is willing to kill people to protect their 401K!
Jesus fucking Christ!
1. You can not shut the U.S. economy completely down because it will crash the entire World Economy!
2. Those dying are elderly and those with severe medical conditions, so a good majority of people will survive this virus, so lock the elderly and those with severe health conditions down and let the rest work!
3. When this passes you will be the first to blame Trump overreaction to the outbreak and claim he crashed the economy of the World while forgetting you begged for a National Lockdown!
------
So no we should not shut the nation down for five weeks and in fact we should just lock those I mentioned and if you feel unsafe then stay home!
1. The United States economy is not complete shut down. Essential goods and services continue to flow. Parts of the economy are expanding to meet the threat. You shut down non-essential services during a pandemic. Its how you deal with it.
2. Its not about you or your money. Its about what is best for the country. Saving lives and preventing the healthcare system which is 20% of the U.S. economy from being overwhelmed is far more important than someone's stupid business or their 401K.
3. We wouldn't be in this situation if Donald Trump had acted early with testing, production of supplies, and locking the countries borders. Sorry, but blocking direct flights from China does virtually nothing when consider how things move in the global economy and how people travel.
4. Japan only has 1,140 cases of this. The United States will pass 50,000 cases today. That in a nutshell shows Trump's massive failure on this.
yep flu deaths.
CDC estimates* that, from October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been:
38,000,000 – 54,000,000
flu illnesses
17,000,000 – 25,000,000
flu medical visits
390,000 – 710,000
flu hospitalizations
23,000 – 59,000
flu deaths
BTW, no one complained about these numbers at all. no one. all of the sudden 500 deaths mean more cause of china's virus.
Irrelevant numbers, here's why!
1. Coronavirus has death rate that is 44 times greater than season flu.
2. Seasonal flu has an available vaccine to protect people from it.
3. There is no vaccine to protect people from coronavirus.
4. Coronavirus is a declared pandemic for these reasons. Seasonal flu is NOT a pandemic.
5. At the start of a pandemic, deaths are low. Its what you do after the start of the pandemic which will determine how many deaths there will be. So comparing typical seasonal flu deaths to the deaths at the start of a pandemic is inaccurate.
6. The first death in the United States occurred on February 29. Its March 24 and we now have about 600 deaths. We want to prevent 200 deaths a week from becoming 100,000 deaths a week.
Again the number you are using is a estimation and not hard fact because again we do not know the actual amount infected.
You grab one number and run with it while ignoring the actual number could be much lower.
When you do contingency planning for a crises or pandemic, you go with the figures of the worst case situation, period! Do anything less risked getting people killed!
it isn't worth my time because you're just a shameful asshole that really doesn't care about people dying.and there you have it. Irrelevant. IRRELEVANT that >23,000 people died. so it isn't about the deaths at all. There you have it. When someone calls over 23,000 deaths irrelevant tells one all one needs to know. dude, fk you. you are irrelevant. I shit in water that is better than you.yep flu deaths.
CDC estimates* that, from October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been:
38,000,000 – 54,000,000
flu illnesses
17,000,000 – 25,000,000
flu medical visits
390,000 – 710,000
flu hospitalizations
23,000 – 59,000
flu deaths
BTW, no one complained about these numbers at all. no one. all of the sudden 500 deaths mean more cause of china's virus.
Irrelevant numbers, here's why!
1. Coronavirus has death rate that is 44 times greater than season flu.
2. Seasonal flu has an available vaccine to protect people from it.
3. There is no vaccine to protect people from coronavirus.
4. Coronavirus is a declared pandemic for these reasons. Seasonal flu is NOT a pandemic.
5. At the start of a pandemic, deaths are low. Its what you do after the start of the pandemic which will determine how many deaths there will be. So comparing typical seasonal flu deaths to the deaths at the start of a pandemic is inaccurate.
6. The first death in the United States occurred on February 29. Its March 24 and we now have about 600 deaths. We want to prevent 200 deaths a week from becoming 100,000 deaths a week.
Like many 15 year old's, you don't read the context which explains why I said that.
why didn't they then? how is it the governors of every state failed that exercise.yep flu deaths.
CDC estimates* that, from October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been:
38,000,000 – 54,000,000
flu illnesses
17,000,000 – 25,000,000
flu medical visits
390,000 – 710,000
flu hospitalizations
23,000 – 59,000
flu deaths
BTW, no one complained about these numbers at all. no one. all of the sudden 500 deaths mean more cause of china's virus.
Irrelevant numbers, here's why!
1. Coronavirus has death rate that is 44 times greater than season flu.
2. Seasonal flu has an available vaccine to protect people from it.
3. There is no vaccine to protect people from coronavirus.
4. Coronavirus is a declared pandemic for these reasons. Seasonal flu is NOT a pandemic.
5. At the start of a pandemic, deaths are low. Its what you do after the start of the pandemic which will determine how many deaths there will be. So comparing typical seasonal flu deaths to the deaths at the start of a pandemic is inaccurate.
6. The first death in the United States occurred on February 29. Its March 24 and we now have about 600 deaths. We want to prevent 200 deaths a week from becoming 100,000 deaths a week.
Again the number you are using is a estimation and not hard fact because again we do not know the actual amount infected.
You grab one number and run with it while ignoring the actual number could be much lower.
When you do contingency planning for a crises or pandemic, you go with the figures of the worst case situation, period! Do anything less risked getting people killed!
I'm done with the asshole as well. ignore that fk from now on. let's let him move along.
I agree with you to the extent that it is a war, but while COVID-19 is extremely contagious, it is not very deadly.
COVID-19 is not as deadly as the normal flu we see every year, and ignore without even noticing?!
The normal flu season kills 40,000 to 60,000 Americans every year. Burden of Influenza
COVID-19 won't even be as deadly as the swine flu was in 2009, that killed 12,500, under Obama's admin.
Today there are 458 deaths attributed to COVID-19, and that is without any therapies like:
Hydroxychloroquine, chloroquine and other potential COVID-19 treatments explained | TechCrunch
During two of this week's White House briefings, President Trump referred specifically to two potential treatments that have been identified by medical
I'm hoping that your pushing for a 5-week economic shutdown isn't politically motivated just to help Sleazy Joe?
How deadly a pathogen is, is determined by the rate of death for THOSE INFECTED!
The Flu has a death rate of about .1% at its highest. The coronavirus has a death rate of 4.4% based on the latest global infection and death numbers.
So this is 44 more times deadly than the seasonal flu!
PLUS THERE IS NO VACCINE!
IF you allow a pathogen to spread that is 44 times more deadly than seasonal flu, with no vaccine available, you are going to kill millions of people around the world. Lockdown is the response to this problem.
In 2009 with H1N1, there was a vaccine. I know because I received it.
That is the percentage of known cases but the number could be much lower because the accuracy is off because we do not truly know the amount that has been infected.
So that percentage you are using is a estimate and should never be used as a hard core fact.
Also doing as you want would collapse the World Economy, so it is not happening and to demand something so stupid, well is expected by those like you.
When dealing with a pandemic, you plan for worse case situations. If you end up overreacting. That's ok, given the nature of the threat. The economy will return to normal. Fuck any asshole who is willing to kill people to protect their 401K!
Jesus fucking Christ!
1. You can not shut the U.S. economy completely down because it will crash the entire World Economy!
2. Those dying are elderly and those with severe medical conditions, so a good majority of people will survive this virus, so lock the elderly and those with severe health conditions down and let the rest work!
3. When this passes you will be the first to blame Trump overreaction to the outbreak and claim he crashed the economy of the World while forgetting you begged for a National Lockdown!
------
So no we should not shut the nation down for five weeks and in fact we should just lock those I mentioned and if you feel unsafe then stay home!
1. The United States economy is not complete shut down. Essential goods and services continue to flow. Parts of the economy are expanding to meet the threat. You shut down non-essential services during a pandemic. Its how you deal with it.
2. Its not about you or your money. Its about what is best for the country. Saving lives and preventing the healthcare system which is 20% of the U.S. economy from being overwhelmed is far more important than someone's stupid business or their 401K.
3. We wouldn't be in this situation if Donald Trump had acted early with testing, production of supplies, and locking the countries borders. Sorry, but blocking direct flights from China does virtually nothing when consider how things move in the global economy and how people travel.
4. Japan only has 1,140 cases of this. The United States will pass 50,000 cases today. That in a nutshell shows Trump's massive failure on this.
There it is!
It is Donald John Trump fault once again!
I am sick of this fucking lie when it is clear all of you on the left are just spinning MSNBC talking points as usual!
1. December 1st 2019 China Government knew there was a pandemic growing in their country and did nothing to inform the World!
They lied to the WHO and even arrested doctors trying to inform the World about the spread of the virus!
2. The world Economy started to Crash when China Government shut down it factories and tourism.
3. China Government allowed infected people to leave their country allowing the virus to spread around the world.
4. You used Japan as your evidence what should be done but Iran and Italy suffered much damage from the spread of the virus because of China Government, so your solution is no guarantee either!
5. My money is not affected by the economic collapse but you are willing to kill more people by starving them or causing them to commit suicide or become drug users so you can pretend you saved one or two lives that will most likely die sooner than later because of age or health conditions!
----
So you lost all credibility by blaming Trump for what China Government caused and your solution will crash the economy and even in your own fucking response you stated the National Shutdown is not really a shutdown but just closing every business that you believe is not needed while keeping other ones open...
So which businesses do you close?
Restuarants and bars are closed here in Texas and grocery stores have limited hours, and many other small businesses are closed so what more do you need?
You are just wanting something that is not needed so you can blame Trump!
Don't go away mad...just go away
My list of those on ignore grows..........as I am worried that Stupidity can be transmitted via the internet...........the only solution for being INFECTED by STUPIDITY is to ISOLATE YOURSELF FROM THE DISEASE.......
i'm right here. obnoxious people don't deserve my time. you're close, but you still haven't crossed that line just yet. responding to spewing nonsense continually isn't worth my time. I deal in facts not what ifs. facts are facts. to deal with all of your sides nonsense is time consuming and pointless.
1. OK. My point is that the H1N1 casualties, 12,500 dead was before the vaccine was available. Hoping that COVID-19 deaths will be much lower.H1N1 while not being as transmitable.....was a deadly Flu.....killing a hell of a lot more than this one has...........that's been that way since forever. flu kills 20,000 and that didn't bother you before did it?Bullshit. We’ve endured worse pandemics before, and we didn’t shut down the whole nation.World
We need an immediate five-week national lockdown to defeat coronavirus in America
Yaneer Bar-Yam, Opinion contributor
USA TODAY OpinionMarch 21, 2020, 11:30 AM EDT
I am an MIT-trained physicist and complexity scientist who studies pandemics. I have warned about global pandemics due to increasing travel for 15 years. I recommended community based monitoring of symptoms to stop Ebola in West Africa in 2014, and it worked. The fastest and even the only way to contain COVID-19 in the United States is a five-week national lockdown.
Closing schools, bars and movie theaters are good measures, but not enough. Our relaxed approach to social distancing is insufficient to stop the exponential growth of COVID-19. Until Americans consistently adopt strong social distancing recommendations — a lockdown — the disease will continue to spread exponentially.
During a five-week national lockdown, federal, state and local authorities would ensure that all Americans stay home except to obtain food and other essentials, access medical care, or do work essential to the functioning of society. Travel would cease: We would close our borders and airports and prohibit all unnecessary travel across state and county (or town) lines within the United States. The U.S. government would have to provide aid to citizens separated from their sources of income and ensure care for vulnerable members of society.
Lockdown would sharply reduce cases
During the first two weeks of a lockdown, infected individuals will either recover from mild cases of COVID-19 at home or seek medical attention for the 14% of cases that are severe. During the third, fourth and fifth weeks, any newly infected family or cohabitants of infected individuals will recover or seek medical attention and their isolation will prevent further spreading. By the end of the lockdown, the number of infections will be a small fraction of what they are now.
The lockdown will give us time to dramatically scale up our supply of COVID-19 test kits and capacity to process them. If we reduce the number of infections using the lockdown and start a massive testing regime in the United States, we can control COVID-19 after five weeks without such extreme social distancing measures. Isolating sick individuals and their immediate contacts will be enough.
The human and economic costs of delaying this lockdown will be staggering. The COVID-19 outbreak has many more cases now than are visible (tip of the iceberg) and they are growing rapidly. Absent sufficiently effective intervention, new cases will increase 1.3 to 1.5 times each day. We had almost 20,000 cases in the United States on Friday, over 5,800 more cases than the previous day. Without a lockdown, in one week there will be about 200,000. In two weeks: 2,000,000. One in seven cases require hospitalization and 5% require ICU care with ventilators to survive. There aren’t nearly enough ventilators available.
The effectiveness of a five-week lockdown will be dramatic — and also entirely predictable.
We know a U.S. lockdown can work because it worked in China. At the height of its COVID-19 crisis in mid-February, China had locked down an estimated 760 milllion people, approximately half of its population. This policy was so successful that Wuhan is now much safer from coronavirus than New York City or Washington, D.C. The few new COVID-19 cases in China now stem from foreign travelers rather than local transmission, and all are safely quarantined.
We know what we have to do. President Donald Trump and our states' governors and local leaders must act now to save millions of lives.
Yaneer Bar-Yam is the founding president of the New England Complex Systems Institute, where he is an expert on pandemics and other complex systems. He is spearheading the effort of over 3,000 volunteers working to stop the outbreak at endcoronavirus.org. Follow him on Twitter: @yaneerbaryam
We need an immediate five-week national lockdown to defeat coronavirus in America
Locking down the country would reduce infections and allow time for massive testing. There will be staggering human and economic costs if we delay.www.yahoo.com
United States Infections and deaths from Coronavirus as of February 29, 2020
Infections: 68
Deaths: 1
United States Infections and deaths from Coronavirus as of March 22, 2020
Infections: 35,000
Deaths: 458
The exponential rise in infections and deaths in just 3 weeks is incredible. Where will the United States be on April 23, 2020 without the lockdown proposed above?
It would be nice to think we could shutdown our economy for 5 weeks and survive as a country, but it is not reality. A 5 week lockdown is a case of the cure being worse than the disease
There is no other option. This is a disaster situation. The priority is survival, not making money. The entire economy will have to be refocused to fighting this war, just like it was during World War II.
Forcing businesses to shut down is wrong. Cracking down on people going to parks is wrong. Let people make up their own damned minds. But authoritarian asswipes can never let that happen.
Go to the park. Get infected from someone you come into contact with. You get sick with a mild case. Go to visit grandma and she dies.
I am not coming into contact with anyone at the park or the biking trails which my stupid city closed.
Neither am I. I have to mask up and stay as far away from everyone as possible. Some asshole goes to Florida on spring break, catches the virus, gives it to their brother, sister, Mom or Dad and they give it to my wife who then gives it to me. I am as good as dead.
Coronavirus is 44 times more deadly than season flu. Seasonal flu has a vaccine you can take, coronavirus does NOT. When will you start to understand these basic facts?
It killed the young.......4000 Americans died in the 1st 6 months.......it killed by some estimates nearly 600,000 in the world..........A VACCINE was started within a FEW MONTHS.......
Now we have several VACCINES in the works within a few months again.........time will tell their success and how to manufacture so much of it is another problem.
WE CANNOT STAY SHUT DOWN FOR A VERY LONG TIME......IT WILL ECONOMICALLY DESTROY US AND THE WORLD.................Even with all of the people staying home...........we ONLY MINIMIZE THE SPREAD.......it's gonna keep coming back until medicine BEATS IT......or it runs it's course........
I do think once it gets MUGGY AND HOT down south....the spread will lessen.....I've shown SARS studies from the past already saying so.........Even though now they say it's NEW......LOL
SARs. .....isn't NEW.......NEITHER IS CORONA...........BOTH HAVE BEEN STUDIED........
This particular strain of corona is new. The alternative to a lockdown is mass death and the destruction of the health care system everyone depends when they become ill for other things. Defeating the pandemic and human survival are FAR MORE IMPORTANT than normal economic activity.
Its only the old economy that is shut down. A new economy is emerging to fight coronavirus just as a new economy emerged in the 1940s to fight World War II! Amazon.com is hiring 100,000 new workers. Shipping of essential services will continue.
"Mass death"
This is exactly what I mean. There actually WAS "mass death" from H1N1...the kind that you would undoubtedly be abjectly panicked about it it were COVID...to the tune of 60K in one season. We didn't shut one thing down.
As I have explained before, 60,000 is not mass death. 3 million people dead within a year is mass death.
1. H1N1 had a vaccine, Coronavirus does not.
2. Coronavirus is 44 times more deadly that seasonal flue
3. Coronavirus is a more dangerous pathogen than H1N1.
1. H1N1 had a vaccine AFTER the pandemic hit. Stop lying. Its stupid to have so many US deaths (12,500) if a vaccine was available. Stop lying.
2009 H1N1 Flu Pandemic Timeline
A timeline of major events that took place during the 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic.www.cdc.gov
2. COVID-19 is NOT 44x more lethal, than seasonal flu.
It may be up to 10x worse depending upon how many unreported cases there actually are.
"So the difference between a 0.1 percent and a 1.0 percent fatality rate could be 360,000 dead Americans. " (not 2,000,000)
Coronavirus vs. the Flu: The Difference Between a 1% and 0.1% Fatality Rate Is Huge | National Review
If tens of millions of Americans get a disease with a one percent fatality rate, it would be a national catastrophe.www.nationalreview.com
I'm not lying! I got the vaccine myself in 2009 and so did the rest of my family. There are an average of 40,000 deaths from seasonal flu every year with the vaccine available. Unfortunately, 50% of people don't get their flu shot each year. A lot of people who died from H1N1 did not get their vaccine shot either.
In Italy, the death rate from coronavirus is nearly 10%. There are over 60,000 cases and over 6,000 deaths. I used the global figures to come up with the 4.4% death rate which is 44 times the death rate of seasonal flu.
If 60% of the U.S. population becomes infected with coronavirus, its estimated there will be 2,400,000 deaths from Coronavirus.
The best thing for the United States, from both a HEALTH and ECONOMIC perspective, is to defeat the PATHOGEN FIRST! Then you can focus on the economy. There are no half measures in defeating a PATHOGEN. Biology is a HARD SCIENCE unlike Economics. Trump should pay attention to the Doctors and Scientist on Epidemiology, not the idiots he appointed to run the economy.
1. I'm not saying you lied about the H1N1 vaccine, but when you "imply" that H1N1 didn't happen before the vaccine was available. H1N1 killed 12,500 Americans, then the vaccine came out. H1N1 hit from April thru September, then the vaccine came out in October. 2009 H1N1 Flu Pandemic Timeline
2. Why use global figures for COVID-19 instead of US CDC figures? Your numbers are way off.
The CDC says that the current mortality rate for COVID-19 is about 0.7% which might be lowered if/when therapies are approved such as Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine: what to know about the potential coronavirus drugs
3. Your 60% infection rate was explained at yesterday's presser by Dr. Birx. She said that the 60% would be over 3-years not one year. We should have a vaccine well before the 3rd year, and therapies well before next year. So your 2,400,000 US deaths is just wrong. If 3% of the US population gets COVID-19 that's about 10m infected, and if 0.007 of them die, that's about 70,000 not 2,400,000. So the death rate would be about the same as a bad regular flu, which is still a bad year.
4. We don't stop the economy for the regular flu, we need to get back to work, but in a smart way, with social distancing and hygiene, after the peak occurs.
1. I never said that we had a vaccine before the first cases of H1N1. I said we got a vaccine quick enough to respond to major spread issues and prevent a major problem. I had family members in older age groups and with underlying health conditions working in the K through 12 school system. They were never advised to stop working, although the emphasized it was important for them to get the vaccine. A vaccine was available before it became a major problem for people over age 60 and with underlying health conditions. The H1N1 situation is not comparable to coronavirus situation!
2. The United States does not have accurate figures thanks to Donald Trump because were way behind on testing. So its not accurate to use just the U.S. figures. Should we use Italian figures, or some other countries figures? No. So that is why for now I use the global figures. I don't trust any one country's particular figures. Again, it is far better to assume a worse death rate and be wrong than to underestimate a dangerous pathogen involved in a global pandemic.
3. I have seen estimates that show 2 million Americans could die before the end of 2020 without the lockdowns in place. You plan for worst case scenarios in a crises like this. Your sugar coating of the problem is the type of thing that gets people killed. As Anthony Fauci has said, its better to overestimate and overreact to a pandemic than to underestimate and under act to a pandemic. Its a global crises, and Trump cares more about the stock market than saving people's lives. Just more reason this idiot should never have been President.
4. This is not regular flu. Anyone who studies pandemics or the SCIENCE on this will tell you that. Your unscientific sugarcoating of this, risk getting millions of people killed. Look at what happened in Hong Kong would they lifted some of the restrictions. They got another wave of the coronavirus.
5. The Economy is not completely stopped. Essential services and production have continued. In addition, there has been huge expansion in certain sectors of the economy as the country refocuses on fighting this pandemic. Idiot Trump is risking killing more Americans by loosening restrictions against the advise of ALL HIS EXPERTS ON PANDEMICS!
6. Finally, lets be clear: Seasonal Flu is not a pandemic. THE CORONAVIRUS IS A PANDEMIC! There is no comparison between the two. The only people who claim there is, are people who are NOT professionals in studying pandemics and how to defeat them!
1. Agree completely. The normal flu deaths don't even make the news, yet COVID-19 is so terrifying we need to shut the country down and hide in our safe rooms. Just being PC? NYC looks bad, but other places are handling it.yep flu deaths.
CDC estimates* that, from October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been:
38,000,000 – 54,000,000
flu illnesses
17,000,000 – 25,000,000
flu medical visits
390,000 – 710,000
flu hospitalizations
23,000 – 59,000
flu deaths
BTW, no one complained about these numbers at all. no one. all of the sudden 500 deaths mean more cause of china's virus.
For me these flu numbers are staggering for no one to say shit about them then react the way they all did with this virus. sick.
1. OK. My point is that the H1N1 casualties, 12,500 dead was before the vaccine was available. Hoping that COVID-19 deaths will be much lower.H1N1 while not being as transmitable.....was a deadly Flu.....killing a hell of a lot more than this one has...........that's been that way since forever. flu kills 20,000 and that didn't bother you before did it?Bullshit. We’ve endured worse pandemics before, and we didn’t shut down the whole nation.World
We need an immediate five-week national lockdown to defeat coronavirus in America
Yaneer Bar-Yam, Opinion contributor
USA TODAY OpinionMarch 21, 2020, 11:30 AM EDT
I am an MIT-trained physicist and complexity scientist who studies pandemics. I have warned about global pandemics due to increasing travel for 15 years. I recommended community based monitoring of symptoms to stop Ebola in West Africa in 2014, and it worked. The fastest and even the only way to contain COVID-19 in the United States is a five-week national lockdown.
Closing schools, bars and movie theaters are good measures, but not enough. Our relaxed approach to social distancing is insufficient to stop the exponential growth of COVID-19. Until Americans consistently adopt strong social distancing recommendations — a lockdown — the disease will continue to spread exponentially.
During a five-week national lockdown, federal, state and local authorities would ensure that all Americans stay home except to obtain food and other essentials, access medical care, or do work essential to the functioning of society. Travel would cease: We would close our borders and airports and prohibit all unnecessary travel across state and county (or town) lines within the United States. The U.S. government would have to provide aid to citizens separated from their sources of income and ensure care for vulnerable members of society.
Lockdown would sharply reduce cases
During the first two weeks of a lockdown, infected individuals will either recover from mild cases of COVID-19 at home or seek medical attention for the 14% of cases that are severe. During the third, fourth and fifth weeks, any newly infected family or cohabitants of infected individuals will recover or seek medical attention and their isolation will prevent further spreading. By the end of the lockdown, the number of infections will be a small fraction of what they are now.
The lockdown will give us time to dramatically scale up our supply of COVID-19 test kits and capacity to process them. If we reduce the number of infections using the lockdown and start a massive testing regime in the United States, we can control COVID-19 after five weeks without such extreme social distancing measures. Isolating sick individuals and their immediate contacts will be enough.
The human and economic costs of delaying this lockdown will be staggering. The COVID-19 outbreak has many more cases now than are visible (tip of the iceberg) and they are growing rapidly. Absent sufficiently effective intervention, new cases will increase 1.3 to 1.5 times each day. We had almost 20,000 cases in the United States on Friday, over 5,800 more cases than the previous day. Without a lockdown, in one week there will be about 200,000. In two weeks: 2,000,000. One in seven cases require hospitalization and 5% require ICU care with ventilators to survive. There aren’t nearly enough ventilators available.
The effectiveness of a five-week lockdown will be dramatic — and also entirely predictable.
We know a U.S. lockdown can work because it worked in China. At the height of its COVID-19 crisis in mid-February, China had locked down an estimated 760 milllion people, approximately half of its population. This policy was so successful that Wuhan is now much safer from coronavirus than New York City or Washington, D.C. The few new COVID-19 cases in China now stem from foreign travelers rather than local transmission, and all are safely quarantined.
We know what we have to do. President Donald Trump and our states' governors and local leaders must act now to save millions of lives.
Yaneer Bar-Yam is the founding president of the New England Complex Systems Institute, where he is an expert on pandemics and other complex systems. He is spearheading the effort of over 3,000 volunteers working to stop the outbreak at endcoronavirus.org. Follow him on Twitter: @yaneerbaryam
We need an immediate five-week national lockdown to defeat coronavirus in America
Locking down the country would reduce infections and allow time for massive testing. There will be staggering human and economic costs if we delay.
United States Infections and deaths from Coronavirus as of February 29, 2020
Infections: 68
Deaths: 1
United States Infections and deaths from Coronavirus as of March 22, 2020
Infections: 35,000
Deaths: 458
The exponential rise in infections and deaths in just 3 weeks is incredible. Where will the United States be on April 23, 2020 without the lockdown proposed above?
It would be nice to think we could shutdown our economy for 5 weeks and survive as a country, but it is not reality. A 5 week lockdown is a case of the cure being worse than the disease
There is no other option. This is a disaster situation. The priority is survival, not making money. The entire economy will have to be refocused to fighting this war, just like it was during World War II.
Forcing businesses to shut down is wrong. Cracking down on people going to parks is wrong. Let people make up their own damned minds. But authoritarian asswipes can never let that happen.
Go to the park. Get infected from someone you come into contact with. You get sick with a mild case. Go to visit grandma and she dies.
I am not coming into contact with anyone at the park or the biking trails which my stupid city closed.
Neither am I. I have to mask up and stay as far away from everyone as possible. Some asshole goes to Florida on spring break, catches the virus, gives it to their brother, sister, Mom or Dad and they give it to my wife who then gives it to me. I am as good as dead.
Coronavirus is 44 times more deadly than season flu. Seasonal flu has a vaccine you can take, coronavirus does NOT. When will you start to understand these basic facts?
It killed the young.......4000 Americans died in the 1st 6 months.......it killed by some estimates nearly 600,000 in the world..........A VACCINE was started within a FEW MONTHS.......
Now we have several VACCINES in the works within a few months again.........time will tell their success and how to manufacture so much of it is another problem.
WE CANNOT STAY SHUT DOWN FOR A VERY LONG TIME......IT WILL ECONOMICALLY DESTROY US AND THE WORLD.................Even with all of the people staying home...........we ONLY MINIMIZE THE SPREAD.......it's gonna keep coming back until medicine BEATS IT......or it runs it's course........
I do think once it gets MUGGY AND HOT down south....the spread will lessen.....I've shown SARS studies from the past already saying so.........Even though now they say it's NEW......LOL
SARs. .....isn't NEW.......NEITHER IS CORONA...........BOTH HAVE BEEN STUDIED........
This particular strain of corona is new. The alternative to a lockdown is mass death and the destruction of the health care system everyone depends when they become ill for other things. Defeating the pandemic and human survival are FAR MORE IMPORTANT than normal economic activity.
Its only the old economy that is shut down. A new economy is emerging to fight coronavirus just as a new economy emerged in the 1940s to fight World War II! Amazon.com is hiring 100,000 new workers. Shipping of essential services will continue.
"Mass death"
This is exactly what I mean. There actually WAS "mass death" from H1N1...the kind that you would undoubtedly be abjectly panicked about it it were COVID...to the tune of 60K in one season. We didn't shut one thing down.
As I have explained before, 60,000 is not mass death. 3 million people dead within a year is mass death.
1. H1N1 had a vaccine, Coronavirus does not.
2. Coronavirus is 44 times more deadly that seasonal flue
3. Coronavirus is a more dangerous pathogen than H1N1.
1. H1N1 had a vaccine AFTER the pandemic hit. Stop lying. Its stupid to have so many US deaths (12,500) if a vaccine was available. Stop lying.
2009 H1N1 Flu Pandemic Timeline
A timeline of major events that took place during the 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic.
2. COVID-19 is NOT 44x more lethal, than seasonal flu.
It may be up to 10x worse depending upon how many unreported cases there actually are.
"So the difference between a 0.1 percent and a 1.0 percent fatality rate could be 360,000 dead Americans. " (not 2,000,000)Coronavirus vs. the Flu: The Difference Between a 1% and 0.1% Fatality Rate Is Huge | National Review
If tens of millions of Americans get a disease with a one percent fatality rate, it would be a national catastrophe.
I'm not lying! I got the vaccine myself in 2009 and so did the rest of my family. There are an average of 40,000 deaths from seasonal flu every year with the vaccine available. Unfortunately, 50% of people don't get their flu shot each year. A lot of people who died from H1N1 did not get their vaccine shot either.
In Italy, the death rate from coronavirus is nearly 10%. There are over 60,000 cases and over 6,000 deaths. I used the global figures to come up with the 4.4% death rate which is 44 times the death rate of seasonal flu.
If 60% of the U.S. population becomes infected with coronavirus, its estimated there will be 2,400,000 deaths from Coronavirus.
The best thing for the United States, from both a HEALTH and ECONOMIC perspective, is to defeat the PATHOGEN FIRST! Then you can focus on the economy. There are no half measures in defeating a PATHOGEN. Biology is a HARD SCIENCE unlike Economics. Trump should pay attention to the Doctors and Scientist on Epidemiology, not the idiots he appointed to run the economy.
1. I'm not saying you lied about the H1N1 vaccine, but when you "imply" that H1N1 didn't happen before the vaccine was available. H1N1 killed 12,500 Americans, then the vaccine came out. H1N1 hit from April thru September, then the vaccine came out in October. 2009 H1N1 Flu Pandemic Timeline
2. Why use global figures for COVID-19 instead of US CDC figures? Your numbers are way off.
The CDC says that the current mortality rate for COVID-19 is about 0.7% which might be lowered if/when therapies are approved such as Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine: what to know about the potential coronavirus drugs
3. Your 60% infection rate was explained at yesterday's presser by Dr. Birx. She said that the 60% would be over 3-years not one year. We should have a vaccine well before the 3rd year, and therapies well before next year. So your 2,400,000 US deaths is just wrong. If 3% of the US population gets COVID-19 that's about 10m infected, and if 0.007 of them die, that's about 70,000 not 2,400,000. So the death rate would be about the same as a bad regular flu, which is still a bad year.
4. We don't stop the economy for the regular flu, we need to get back to work, but in a smart way, with social distancing and hygiene, after the peak occurs.
1. I never said that we had a vaccine before the first cases of H1N1. I said we got a vaccine quick enough to respond to major spread issues and prevent a major problem. I had family members in older age groups and with underlying health conditions working in the K through 12 school system. They were never advised to stop working, although the emphasized it was important for them to get the vaccine. A vaccine was available before it became a major problem for people over age 60 and with underlying health conditions. The H1N1 situation is not comparable to coronavirus situation!
2. The United States does not have accurate figures thanks to Donald Trump because were way behind on testing. So its not accurate to use just the U.S. figures. Should we use Italian figures, or some other countries figures? No. So that is why for now I use the global figures. I don't trust any one country's particular figures. Again, it is far better to assume a worse death rate and be wrong than to underestimate a dangerous pathogen involved in a global pandemic.
3. I have seen estimates that show 2 million Americans could die before the end of 2020 without the lockdowns in place. You plan for worst case scenarios in a crises like this. Your sugar coating of the problem is the type of thing that gets people killed. As Anthony Fauci has said, its better to overestimate and overreact to a pandemic than to underestimate and under act to a pandemic. Its a global crises, and Trump cares more about the stock market than saving people's lives. Just more reason this idiot should never have been President.
4. This is not regular flu. Anyone who studies pandemics or the SCIENCE on this will tell you that. Your unscientific sugarcoating of this, risk getting millions of people killed. Look at what happened in Hong Kong would they lifted some of the restrictions. They got another wave of the coronavirus.
5. The Economy is not completely stopped. Essential services and production have continued. In addition, there has been huge expansion in certain sectors of the economy as the country refocuses on fighting this pandemic. Idiot Trump is risking killing more Americans by loosening restrictions against the advise of ALL HIS EXPERTS ON PANDEMICS!
6. Finally, lets be clear: Seasonal Flu is not a pandemic. THE CORONAVIRUS IS A PANDEMIC! There is no comparison between the two. The only people who claim there is, are people who are NOT professionals in studying pandemics and how to defeat them!
2, Do the math, more testing means more cases, means that the denominator gets bigger and the death rate gets smaller. The 0.7% CDC currently states supersedes the 4.4% global death rate. So use the 0.7% not the 4.4%
3. Please post a link supporting the 2m US deaths in 2020. If you can't find a credible link stop posting nonsense. Your posts are generally unsupported bullshit, please try to debate using real facts, real links, not unsupported nonsense. Here is Dr. Fauci's early estimate, not 4.4%:
A Doctor’s Assessment of the COVID-19 Outbreak | National Review
"Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health, wrote that because of the high number of unreported cases, “the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1% . . . ultimately more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%).”
(This is from Fauci, Lane, and Redfield, “Covid-19 — Navigating the Uncharted,” NEJM (2020 February 28): 1–2.)
4. All pandemics end, we can't hide in our safe rooms too long. The CDC doctros will tell us when its safe to come out.
5. Agree we do not want to play with fire. But we can't delay going back to work too long either.
When Trump haters like Paul Krugman support Trump's re-open when ready plan, you know the economy needs to re-start soon.
6. Was H1N1 a pandemic? What did we do back then? I don't recall shutting the counrty down for a month or two.
Let the doctors do their data analysis, and then when reasonably ready, start getting back to work.
10 days ago NYC looked fine...
Bad example. Krugman got the Great Recession right. One of the few
they never cleaned? Well shit, how fking stupid is that?
Now this.
Coronavirus genetic material stayed on surfaces for up to 17 days on Diamond Princess cruise, CDC says
A new CDC report into the spread of the novel coronavirus on cruise ships looked into the spread of the disease beyond individual voyages.www.usatoday.com
yep flu deaths.
CDC estimates* that, from October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been:
38,000,000 – 54,000,000
flu illnesses
17,000,000 – 25,000,000
flu medical visits
390,000 – 710,000
flu hospitalizations
23,000 – 59,000
flu deaths
BTW, no one complained about these numbers at all. no one. all of the sudden 500 deaths mean more cause of china's virus.
Irrelevant numbers, here's why!
1. Coronavirus has death rate that is 44 times greater than season flu.
2. Seasonal flu has an available vaccine to protect people from it.
3. There is no vaccine to protect people from coronavirus.
4. Coronavirus is a declared pandemic for these reasons. Seasonal flu is NOT a pandemic.
5. At the start of a pandemic, deaths are low. Its what you do after the start of the pandemic which will determine how many deaths there will be. So comparing typical seasonal flu deaths to the deaths at the start of a pandemic is inaccurate.
6. The first death in the United States occurred on February 29. Its March 24 and we now have about 600 deaths. We want to prevent 200 deaths a week from becoming 100,000 deaths a week.
Again the number you are using is a estimation and not hard fact because again we do not know the actual amount infected.
You grab one number and run with it while ignoring the actual number could be much lower.
When you do contingency planning for a crises or pandemic, you go with the figures of the worst case situation, period! Do anything less risked getting people killed!
Doing what you are doing is causing hysteria is what you are wanting!
Your goal is to crash the World Economy, blame Trump and then beg for a Chinese like Government to take over.
Anyone can see what you are truly after!
Again, those dying are elderly and those with medical conditions and not healthy people.
So lock those people down and let the rest work!
I know how dare I state facts versus your hysteria!
1. OK. My point is that the H1N1 casualties, 12,500 dead was before the vaccine was available. Hoping that COVID-19 deaths will be much lower.H1N1 while not being as transmitable.....was a deadly Flu.....killing a hell of a lot more than this one has...........that's been that way since forever. flu kills 20,000 and that didn't bother you before did it?Bullshit. We’ve endured worse pandemics before, and we didn’t shut down the whole nation.World
We need an immediate five-week national lockdown to defeat coronavirus in America
Yaneer Bar-Yam, Opinion contributor
USA TODAY OpinionMarch 21, 2020, 11:30 AM EDT
I am an MIT-trained physicist and complexity scientist who studies pandemics. I have warned about global pandemics due to increasing travel for 15 years. I recommended community based monitoring of symptoms to stop Ebola in West Africa in 2014, and it worked. The fastest and even the only way to contain COVID-19 in the United States is a five-week national lockdown.
Closing schools, bars and movie theaters are good measures, but not enough. Our relaxed approach to social distancing is insufficient to stop the exponential growth of COVID-19. Until Americans consistently adopt strong social distancing recommendations — a lockdown — the disease will continue to spread exponentially.
During a five-week national lockdown, federal, state and local authorities would ensure that all Americans stay home except to obtain food and other essentials, access medical care, or do work essential to the functioning of society. Travel would cease: We would close our borders and airports and prohibit all unnecessary travel across state and county (or town) lines within the United States. The U.S. government would have to provide aid to citizens separated from their sources of income and ensure care for vulnerable members of society.
Lockdown would sharply reduce cases
During the first two weeks of a lockdown, infected individuals will either recover from mild cases of COVID-19 at home or seek medical attention for the 14% of cases that are severe. During the third, fourth and fifth weeks, any newly infected family or cohabitants of infected individuals will recover or seek medical attention and their isolation will prevent further spreading. By the end of the lockdown, the number of infections will be a small fraction of what they are now.
The lockdown will give us time to dramatically scale up our supply of COVID-19 test kits and capacity to process them. If we reduce the number of infections using the lockdown and start a massive testing regime in the United States, we can control COVID-19 after five weeks without such extreme social distancing measures. Isolating sick individuals and their immediate contacts will be enough.
The human and economic costs of delaying this lockdown will be staggering. The COVID-19 outbreak has many more cases now than are visible (tip of the iceberg) and they are growing rapidly. Absent sufficiently effective intervention, new cases will increase 1.3 to 1.5 times each day. We had almost 20,000 cases in the United States on Friday, over 5,800 more cases than the previous day. Without a lockdown, in one week there will be about 200,000. In two weeks: 2,000,000. One in seven cases require hospitalization and 5% require ICU care with ventilators to survive. There aren’t nearly enough ventilators available.
The effectiveness of a five-week lockdown will be dramatic — and also entirely predictable.
We know a U.S. lockdown can work because it worked in China. At the height of its COVID-19 crisis in mid-February, China had locked down an estimated 760 milllion people, approximately half of its population. This policy was so successful that Wuhan is now much safer from coronavirus than New York City or Washington, D.C. The few new COVID-19 cases in China now stem from foreign travelers rather than local transmission, and all are safely quarantined.
We know what we have to do. President Donald Trump and our states' governors and local leaders must act now to save millions of lives.
Yaneer Bar-Yam is the founding president of the New England Complex Systems Institute, where he is an expert on pandemics and other complex systems. He is spearheading the effort of over 3,000 volunteers working to stop the outbreak at endcoronavirus.org. Follow him on Twitter: @yaneerbaryam
We need an immediate five-week national lockdown to defeat coronavirus in America
Locking down the country would reduce infections and allow time for massive testing. There will be staggering human and economic costs if we delay.
United States Infections and deaths from Coronavirus as of February 29, 2020
Infections: 68
Deaths: 1
United States Infections and deaths from Coronavirus as of March 22, 2020
Infections: 35,000
Deaths: 458
The exponential rise in infections and deaths in just 3 weeks is incredible. Where will the United States be on April 23, 2020 without the lockdown proposed above?
It would be nice to think we could shutdown our economy for 5 weeks and survive as a country, but it is not reality. A 5 week lockdown is a case of the cure being worse than the disease
There is no other option. This is a disaster situation. The priority is survival, not making money. The entire economy will have to be refocused to fighting this war, just like it was during World War II.
Forcing businesses to shut down is wrong. Cracking down on people going to parks is wrong. Let people make up their own damned minds. But authoritarian asswipes can never let that happen.
Go to the park. Get infected from someone you come into contact with. You get sick with a mild case. Go to visit grandma and she dies.
I am not coming into contact with anyone at the park or the biking trails which my stupid city closed.
Neither am I. I have to mask up and stay as far away from everyone as possible. Some asshole goes to Florida on spring break, catches the virus, gives it to their brother, sister, Mom or Dad and they give it to my wife who then gives it to me. I am as good as dead.
Coronavirus is 44 times more deadly than season flu. Seasonal flu has a vaccine you can take, coronavirus does NOT. When will you start to understand these basic facts?
It killed the young.......4000 Americans died in the 1st 6 months.......it killed by some estimates nearly 600,000 in the world..........A VACCINE was started within a FEW MONTHS.......
Now we have several VACCINES in the works within a few months again.........time will tell their success and how to manufacture so much of it is another problem.
WE CANNOT STAY SHUT DOWN FOR A VERY LONG TIME......IT WILL ECONOMICALLY DESTROY US AND THE WORLD.................Even with all of the people staying home...........we ONLY MINIMIZE THE SPREAD.......it's gonna keep coming back until medicine BEATS IT......or it runs it's course........
I do think once it gets MUGGY AND HOT down south....the spread will lessen.....I've shown SARS studies from the past already saying so.........Even though now they say it's NEW......LOL
SARs. .....isn't NEW.......NEITHER IS CORONA...........BOTH HAVE BEEN STUDIED........
This particular strain of corona is new. The alternative to a lockdown is mass death and the destruction of the health care system everyone depends when they become ill for other things. Defeating the pandemic and human survival are FAR MORE IMPORTANT than normal economic activity.
Its only the old economy that is shut down. A new economy is emerging to fight coronavirus just as a new economy emerged in the 1940s to fight World War II! Amazon.com is hiring 100,000 new workers. Shipping of essential services will continue.
"Mass death"
This is exactly what I mean. There actually WAS "mass death" from H1N1...the kind that you would undoubtedly be abjectly panicked about it it were COVID...to the tune of 60K in one season. We didn't shut one thing down.
As I have explained before, 60,000 is not mass death. 3 million people dead within a year is mass death.
1. H1N1 had a vaccine, Coronavirus does not.
2. Coronavirus is 44 times more deadly that seasonal flue
3. Coronavirus is a more dangerous pathogen than H1N1.
1. H1N1 had a vaccine AFTER the pandemic hit. Stop lying. Its stupid to have so many US deaths (12,500) if a vaccine was available. Stop lying.
2009 H1N1 Flu Pandemic Timeline
A timeline of major events that took place during the 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic.
2. COVID-19 is NOT 44x more lethal, than seasonal flu.
It may be up to 10x worse depending upon how many unreported cases there actually are.
"So the difference between a 0.1 percent and a 1.0 percent fatality rate could be 360,000 dead Americans. " (not 2,000,000)Coronavirus vs. the Flu: The Difference Between a 1% and 0.1% Fatality Rate Is Huge | National Review
If tens of millions of Americans get a disease with a one percent fatality rate, it would be a national catastrophe.
I'm not lying! I got the vaccine myself in 2009 and so did the rest of my family. There are an average of 40,000 deaths from seasonal flu every year with the vaccine available. Unfortunately, 50% of people don't get their flu shot each year. A lot of people who died from H1N1 did not get their vaccine shot either.
In Italy, the death rate from coronavirus is nearly 10%. There are over 60,000 cases and over 6,000 deaths. I used the global figures to come up with the 4.4% death rate which is 44 times the death rate of seasonal flu.
If 60% of the U.S. population becomes infected with coronavirus, its estimated there will be 2,400,000 deaths from Coronavirus.
The best thing for the United States, from both a HEALTH and ECONOMIC perspective, is to defeat the PATHOGEN FIRST! Then you can focus on the economy. There are no half measures in defeating a PATHOGEN. Biology is a HARD SCIENCE unlike Economics. Trump should pay attention to the Doctors and Scientist on Epidemiology, not the idiots he appointed to run the economy.
1. I'm not saying you lied about the H1N1 vaccine, but when you "imply" that H1N1 didn't happen before the vaccine was available. H1N1 killed 12,500 Americans, then the vaccine came out. H1N1 hit from April thru September, then the vaccine came out in October. 2009 H1N1 Flu Pandemic Timeline
2. Why use global figures for COVID-19 instead of US CDC figures? Your numbers are way off.
The CDC says that the current mortality rate for COVID-19 is about 0.7% which might be lowered if/when therapies are approved such as Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine: what to know about the potential coronavirus drugs
3. Your 60% infection rate was explained at yesterday's presser by Dr. Birx. She said that the 60% would be over 3-years not one year. We should have a vaccine well before the 3rd year, and therapies well before next year. So your 2,400,000 US deaths is just wrong. If 3% of the US population gets COVID-19 that's about 10m infected, and if 0.007 of them die, that's about 70,000 not 2,400,000. So the death rate would be about the same as a bad regular flu, which is still a bad year.
4. We don't stop the economy for the regular flu, we need to get back to work, but in a smart way, with social distancing and hygiene, after the peak occurs.
1. I never said that we had a vaccine before the first cases of H1N1. I said we got a vaccine quick enough to respond to major spread issues and prevent a major problem. I had family members in older age groups and with underlying health conditions working in the K through 12 school system. They were never advised to stop working, although the emphasized it was important for them to get the vaccine. A vaccine was available before it became a major problem for people over age 60 and with underlying health conditions. The H1N1 situation is not comparable to coronavirus situation!
2. The United States does not have accurate figures thanks to Donald Trump because were way behind on testing. So its not accurate to use just the U.S. figures. Should we use Italian figures, or some other countries figures? No. So that is why for now I use the global figures. I don't trust any one country's particular figures. Again, it is far better to assume a worse death rate and be wrong than to underestimate a dangerous pathogen involved in a global pandemic.
3. I have seen estimates that show 2 million Americans could die before the end of 2020 without the lockdowns in place. You plan for worst case scenarios in a crises like this. Your sugar coating of the problem is the type of thing that gets people killed. As Anthony Fauci has said, its better to overestimate and overreact to a pandemic than to underestimate and under act to a pandemic. Its a global crises, and Trump cares more about the stock market than saving people's lives. Just more reason this idiot should never have been President.
4. This is not regular flu. Anyone who studies pandemics or the SCIENCE on this will tell you that. Your unscientific sugarcoating of this, risk getting millions of people killed. Look at what happened in Hong Kong would they lifted some of the restrictions. They got another wave of the coronavirus.
5. The Economy is not completely stopped. Essential services and production have continued. In addition, there has been huge expansion in certain sectors of the economy as the country refocuses on fighting this pandemic. Idiot Trump is risking killing more Americans by loosening restrictions against the advise of ALL HIS EXPERTS ON PANDEMICS!
6. Finally, lets be clear: Seasonal Flu is not a pandemic. THE CORONAVIRUS IS A PANDEMIC! There is no comparison between the two. The only people who claim there is, are people who are NOT professionals in studying pandemics and how to defeat them!
2, Do the math, more testing means more cases, means that the denominator gets bigger and the death rate gets smaller. The 0.7% CDC currently states supersedes the 4.4% global death rate. So use the 0.7% not the 4.4%
3. Please post a link supporting the 2m US deaths in 2020. If you can't find a credible link stop posting nonsense. Your posts are generally unsupported bullshit, please try to debate using real facts, real links, not unsupported nonsense. Here is Dr. Fauci's early estimate, not 4.4%:
A Doctor’s Assessment of the COVID-19 Outbreak | National Review
"Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health, wrote that because of the high number of unreported cases, “the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1% . . . ultimately more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%).”
(This is from Fauci, Lane, and Redfield, “Covid-19 — Navigating the Uncharted,” NEJM (2020 February 28): 1–2.)
4. All pandemics end, we can't hide in our safe rooms too long. The CDC doctros will tell us when its safe to come out.
5. Agree we do not want to play with fire. But we can't delay going back to work too long either.
When Trump haters like Paul Krugman support Trump's re-open when ready plan, you know the economy needs to re-start soon.
6. Was H1N1 a pandemic? What did we do back then? I don't recall shutting the counrty down for a month or two.
Let the doctors do their data analysis, and then when reasonably ready, start getting back to work.
That is the problem with many is they see a number and they grab it thinking it help their argument when it weakens it further.
It is unknown how many people have been infected by the virus and were asymptomatic.
The percentage of deaths would be much lower if we had a better understanding how many people were infected.
The Op'er is overreacting and believe if Trump does not do as he or she want then Trump is killing people but if Trump does as they want and people still die in large amounts from the virus and then the economy is in a great depression more people will die.
The answer is quarantining the elderly and people with preexisting conditions and the rest of the country goes back to work...
