Was Ukraine a threat to Russia before start of Russian military operation?

[SavannahMann]

I am very glad that nobody here denies 2 points which, in my opinion, are the most important ones.

1. There really were Ukrainian plans to use military force for “de-occupation and reintegration of Crimea”.
   
   
2. If these plans have succeeded, the majority of Crimean population would be turned into third-grade people.

These 2 points together, in my opinion, could justify the Russian military operation in Ukraine.

All other remarks of yours – e.g. about Crimean population in the 19th century or about functions of Ukrainian President – are, in my opinion, not so important.

Was Crimea Ukrainian before it was seized and annexed in 2014?

 

[Dissident]

..prior to WWII the Muslim Tatars were the majority in Crimea but following WWII Stalin conducted a program of genocide against them...

In my Collins dictionary I read "the majority of people or things in a group is more than half of them" (i.e. more than 50%).
And in article “Demographics of Crimea” in Wikipedia you can read that already at the end of 19th century Tatars amounted to only 35.55% of Crimean population.

 

[Dissident]

I understand your point of view and believe that it is too simplified.

Your point of view is “inclusion of Crimea into Russia was illegal and bad and it does not matter that ethnic Russians are majority in Crimea. POINT!”

But I consider this question in a wider context.

If you take into account that in modern Ukraine ethnic Russians are discriminated, i.e. they are third-grade citizens – compared with first-grade ethnic Crimean Tatars or second-grade ethnic Hungarians and Romanians - can you unambiguously say that inclusion of Crimea into Russia was bad?

I personally cannot say it.

And I cannot say that Ukrainian authorities really have full rights to use military measures for “de-occupation and reintegration of Crimea” in such a case.

And I hope that you understand my point of view too.

 

[SavannahMann]

I understand your point of view and believe that it is too simplified.

Your point of view is “inclusion of Crimea into Russia was illegal and bad and it does not matter that ethnic Russians are majority in Crimea. POINT!”

But I consider this question in a wider context.

If you take into account that in modern Ukraine ethnic Russians are discriminated, i.e. they are third-grade citizens – compared with first-grade ethnic Crimean Tatars or second-grade ethnic Hungarians and Romanians - can you unambiguously say that inclusion of Crimea into Russia was bad?

I personally cannot say it.

And I cannot say that Ukrainian authorities really have full rights to use military measures for “de-occupation and reintegration of Crimea” in such a case.

And I hope that you understand my point of view too.

If the “Russian” ethnic groups don’t like living in Ukraine. The answer is obvious. It is far easier and cheaper to sell your land or homes. And move to Russia. Taking the territory is far more expensive and destructive.

Arguing that the bad guys are the ones defending their national sovereignty is ludicrous.

I do understand your point of view. It has been explained many times by Russian Trolls and Puppets. People who would have been called Zampolit a little over a generation ago.

Political commissar - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

People who spread propaganda and made sure the people heard only the most positive aspects of the glorious life provided by the Soviet Union.

 

[xyz]

If you take into account that in modern Ukraine ethnic Russians are discriminated, i.e. they are third-grade citizens – compared with first-grade ethnic Crimean Tatars or second-grade ethnic Hungarians and Romanians -

That's just not true, plus the Russian army bombed the hell out of the Russian speaking parts of Ukraine.

They would rather be part of the EU than a corrupt Russian failing state on the verge of collapse.

 

[Dissident]

I do understand your point of view. It has been explained many times by Russian Trolls and Puppets. People who would have been called Zampolit a little over a generation ago.

Political commissar - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

People who spread propaganda and made sure the people heard only the most positive aspects of the glorious life provided by the Soviet Union.

It is very good to see that even the user with the Ukrainian flag on his avatar does not deny that ethnic Russians are discriminated in his country, i.e. they are third-grade citizens there – compared with first-grade ethnic Crimean Tatars or second-grade ethnic Hungarians and Romanians.

 

[Dissident]

That (discrimination of ethnic Russians in Ukraine) is just not true...

Please read the thread Aren't these Ukrainian laws the Nazi ones?
We discussed this question in April.

​

 

[SavannahMann]

It is very good to see that even the user with the Ukrainian flag on his avatar does not deny that ethnic Russians are discriminated in his country, i.e. they are third-grade citizens there – compared with first-grade ethnic Crimean Tatars or second-grade ethnic Hungarians and Romanians.

People in California who feel targeted or otherwise restricted leave the state. Conservatives who own guns, or small businesses. They leave to seek their futures elsewhere.

People who are in Texas and object to the restrictions put upon their freedoms leave for greener pastures.

And it isn’t merely going to other states. Some leave their nations and become expats around the world. Asia and South or Central America are popular.

There are whole towns made up of these Ex Pats through the world. European citizens included.

Yet these “Russian” ethic people didn’t even consider this. Russia is more than large enough to absorb them. Russia wants to absorb them in fact. This is evidenced by the hostages taken my the glorious Russian Army. Children to be raised as Russians. Even though they aren’t the right ethnic group.

Ukraine accuses Moscow of "kidnapping" children amid ongoing war

Ukraine's government accuses Moscow of "kidnapping" children amid its ongoing invasion so they can be "illegally adopted by Russian citizens."

www.cbsnews.com

All over the world. People relocate themselves from areas where they feel persecuted. Why didn’t these Ethnic Russians?

And the idiotic argument that this was the cause for this war is laughable. Russia tried to conquer all of Ukraine. When that failed it then became an effort to annex parts they “controlled” by arms. At least while they still controlled it.

The Ethnic Russians were not being persecuted. They lost political power to the majority who wanted closer ties to the West. The minority wanted dominance over the majority.

Russian action was based upon lies. Proceeded by more lies. And even now the lies continue in a stupid effort to erode support for Ukraine which is growing world wide.

The Russian Economy won’t recover for at least a generation. It will take that long to return to what it was before all this started. And that is if Russia does the smart thing right now. If they walk Putin outside and put a bullet in his head and announce they are withdrawing from Ukraine and asking for a return to status quo ante.

Otherwise. This can end only one of two ways. Russia broken up into smaller nations. Or nuclear fire. I’m ok with either choice. Because death as a free man is better than life as a slave to Russian aggression.

And Zampolit. You know this is true. It is why you are still here spreading discredited propaganda continuing the effort to erode support for the nation Russia expected to conquer in a couple weeks.

 

[xyz]

That's what Hitler said when he annexed Sudetenland.

 

[Dissident]

Some leave their nations and become expats around the world. Asia and South or Central America are popular.
...
Yet these “Russian” ethic people didn’t even consider this.

When some people feel themselves discriminated in their countries, they really leave for abroad.
But in other cases, people stay and separate themselves from the country whose authorities discriminate them – e.g. East Timor or South Sudan.
There is no general rule for all who feel themselves discriminated in their countries.

 

[xyz]

 

[Dissident]

SavannahMann
In my opinion, you are not very bad.

You don’t try to deny obvious things, e.g. that there is a hatred towards citizens of Russian origin in Ukraine, that there is discrimination of such citizens in Ukraine and so on. Users with the Ukrainian flag on their avatars usually deny even these obvious things.

But I believe that it has little sense to discuss the question “Was Ukraine a threat to Russia before start of Russian military operation?” only between you and me.

I believe that later we could discuss the origins of this hatred and discrimination, but in a separate thread.

 

[xyz]

What about the hatred of the Russian people by the Russian government?

 

[SavannahMann]

SavannahMann
In my opinion, you are not very bad.

You don’t try to deny obvious things, e.g. that there is a hatred towards citizens of Russian origin in Ukraine, that there is discrimination of such citizens in Ukraine and so on. Users with the Ukrainian flag on their avatars usually deny even these obvious things.

But I believe that it has little sense to discuss the question “Was Ukraine a threat to Russia before start of Russian military operation?” only between you and me.

I believe that later we could discuss the origins of this hatred and discrimination, but in a separate thread.

To understand how we got to this place in time. It is important to deal in truth. Biden told the world that Russia was preparing to invade Ukraine. Russia denied this. They claimed that Biden was just trying to deflect attention from domestic issues. A second warning and calls on American Citizens to leave Russia immediately.

Again Russia denied this. And right up until the troops attacked continued to deny that there were any hostile intentions.

World leaders warned that Russia was preparing a trick to use as justification for the attack. This false flag operation was imminent. Russia continued to deny it all.

After the troops crossed the border Russia announced they had launched this special military operation because of hostilities by the Ukrainian Government. The world called bullshit. The story changed several times over the next few days.

These are historical facts. Russia lied about going in. Russia lied about why they were going in. Russia continues to lie today.

The lies continue.

 

[alexa]

I am remembering that I have read more than once that it was on discovering that Ukraine had determined it was going to take back Crimea that Russia decided to invade Ukraine. I thought it was because the right wing of Ukraine feel that to put up with any kind of acceptance of Russia military take over in Ukraine shows them to be cowards. However for Russia any time I have seen a reason for them taking Crimea it has been because in that area they are land locked and I think it was British ships, possibly war ships, possibly both British and American were taking to hanging around there - no doubt due to their friendship with Ukraine.

In reality if that was the reason although not right or legal it was understandable as Russia was already deeply concerned about NATO moving in all around them and given that they had no naval base there while the British Navy was coming and going, they could have a genuine reason to feel threatened.

 

[Dissident]

The lies continue.

Everybody lies.
Barak Obama lied that "there was no spying on Americans" - Reactions to global surveillance disclosures - Wikipedia

 

[SavannahMann]

I am remembering that I have read more than once that it was on discovering that Ukraine had determined it was going to take back Crimea that Russia decided to invade Ukraine. I thought it was because the right wing of Ukraine feel that to put up with any kind of acceptance of Russia military take over in Ukraine shows them to be cowards. However for Russia any time I have seen a reason for them taking Crimea it has been because in that area they are land locked and I think it was British ships, possibly war ships, possibly both British and American were taking to hanging around there - no doubt due to their friendship with Ukraine.

In reality if that was the reason although not right or legal it was understandable as Russia was already deeply concerned about NATO moving in all around them and given that they had no naval base there while the British Navy was coming and going, they could have a genuine reason to feel threatened.

The largest naval base the Russians have on the Black Sea is in Crimea. However. That base is now worthless. Besides the supply lines being cut. There is the problem of Russian Ships being hit by cruise missiles. The flagship was sunk easily.

The base is too close to the enemy and is untenable.

Russia has access to the Black Sea. The problem isn’t with the Black Sea with or without Crimea. The problem is access to the Mediterranean Sea. That requires passing through Turkey which has been reluctant to allow Russian ships to pass.

That’s why ships from the Northern Fleet sail all the way around Europe to get to their base in Syria.

As I said. The problem isn’t the sea. It’s land.

With Ukraine aligning themselves closer to the West and especially the EU, Moldavia, a Russian Ally, would be isolated. Additionally Belarus would be nearly completely surrounded.

This would make supporting those two nations difficult in the extreme. Especially Moldavia which has no access to the sea. So any support would have to pass through nominally opposition nations which could hold up military type supply trains.

So taking Ukraine and creating a solid wall of strength was the obvious choice.

The problem is that Russian strength was based upon fear. The smaller nations feared Russia.

Now with the failed invasion that fear is lessened. It is obvious when Russian spokesmen remind the world twice or three times a week that Nuclear War will result.

The image to think of is a Father figure standing over the children. Keeping them in line.

Even now Russian satellite nations are fighting among themselves while Russia is mired in the Ukraine. Moscow is taking no notice because they have nothing left to back up the demands that the children stop.

The Russian Army is nearly shattered. The Navy has all but abandoned the base on the Crimean Peninsula. The Air Force has suffered a bloody nose they can’t afford.

Here again we see the truth. Russia was not nearly as strong or as prepared as they needed to be. Prewar plans counted on capitulation by first Ukraine and then Europe. Now it is Russia praying they can hold out until General Winter steps in to help. But this isn’t the German Army of 1941 or the Napoleon invasion. Ukrainian soldiers are accustomed to the weather too.

And the Ukrainian army is winning.

Threats and intimidation didn’t work to drive Ukraine back into the fold. So Daddy Moscow decided to spank the bad children. Only that backfired badly. Daddy is getting his ass whipped.

 

[SavannahMann]

Everybody lies.
Barak Obama lied that "there was no spying on Americans" - Reactions to global surveillance disclosures - Wikipedia

My own war. Gulf War One. Or Desert Shield/Storm if you prefer.

The United States spent weeks, hell Months building the public case for war. They spent that time explaining. It over and over again.

Britain spent the time needed to cross the ocean to reclaim the Falkland Islands making the case for why they were going to war.

Now obviously history tells us that this didn’t happen every time. But History also views such times dimly. Arguments that hostilities were gunned up or could have been avoided.

One thing that History views most darkly is deception of intent prior to the war.

This is referred to as a Pearl Harbor attack these days. A no warning attack on unsuspecting targets.

Now in this case the image remains of a bigger individual attacking a smaller one. And worse. The bigger one lied about attacking the smaller one until after the attack.

The bigger one will be seen as a bully. A thug. A person without integrity or honor. And that perception was tolerable as long as the thug was victorious. Then time would moderate the world hostility. The phrase would be crying over spilt milk.

But the bully didn’t win. And it is left to the Zampolit like yourself to try and moderate the world view.

 

[Dissident]

I understand point of view of my opponents.

Their picture of situation is based on 2 components which are constantly repeated by Western media (please see below).

Item 1​

Western media many times have been telling to my opponents that Russia “has illegitimately annexed the Crimean Peninsula”.​

​

Item 2​

Western media many times have been telling to my opponents that it does not matter that ethnic Russians are majority in Crimea.​

On the basis of these two points, my opponents conclude that the plans of present Ukrainian government to take back Crimea by military force are fair.

But I ask my opponents to add to their picture of situation a third element which Western media NEVER told to my opponents (please see below).

​

Item 3​

Under present Ukrainian legislation ethnic Russians are discriminated in Ukraine, i.e. they are third-grade citizens there – compared with first-grade ethnic Crimean Tatars or second-grade ethnic Hungarians and Romanians.​

On the basis of this wider look on the situation – Can my opponents say that the plans of present Ukrainian government to take back Crimea by military force AND to turn the majority of Crimean population into third-grade people are fair?

In my opinion, such plans are not fair. Therefore, Russian military operation for preventing Ukrainian military measures could be justified.

And my goal is that my opponents would include the above-mentioned third element into their picture of situation.

 

[JoeB131]

I understand point of view of my opponents.

Their picture of situation is based on 2 components which are constantly repeated by Western media (please see below).

Item 1​

Western media many times have been telling to my opponents that Russia “has illegitimately annexed the Crimean Peninsula”.​

​

Item 2​

Western media many times have been telling to my opponents that it does not matter that ethic Russians are majority in Crimea.​

On the basis of these two points, my opponents conclude that the plans of present Ukrainian government to take back Crimea by military force are fair.

But I ask my opponents to add to their picture of situation a third element which Western media NEVER told to my opponents (please see below).

​

Item 3​

Under present Ukrainian legislation ethnic Russians are discriminated in Ukraine, i.e. they are third-grade citizens there – compared with first-grade ethnic Crimean Tatars or second-grade ethnic Hungarians and Romanians.​

On the basis of this wider look on the situation – Can my opponents say that the plans of present Ukrainian government to take back Crimea by military force AND to turn the majority of Crimean population into third-grade people are fair?

In my opinion, such plans are not fair. Therefore, Russian military operation for preventing Ukrainian military measures could be justified.

And my goal is that my opponents would include the above-mentioned third element into their picture of situation.

Did they cut off your Borscht ration at the St. Petersburg Troll Farm?

Russia's annexation of the Crimea WAS illegitimate. It really doesn't matter that the majority of people in the Donbass or Crimea are Ethnically Russian, those borders are the ones that Russia agreed to both when the USSR existed (and Russia used Ukraine and Belarus to have two extra seats in the UN) and after the dissolution of the USSR.

The Ukraine COULD have retained the nukes it had after the USSR broke up. Instead it entered an agreement with the West and the Russian Federation in 1994 to give up its nukes in exchange for guarantees of their borders.

If Putin's goal was to just secure Crimea and the Donbass, that should have been his initial strategy. Instead, he intended to take the whole of Ukraine and install a puppet government that would agree to whatever he wanted. He didn't count on the Ukrainians fighting back.

The biggest problem he has is that this war is very unpopular in Russia itself. They don't see a reason for it. Throwing in conscripts with little training or equipment is going to just make things worse.

Now, when Russia inevitably capitulates and has to return those territories, will it suck to be an ethnic Russia in Crimea or Donbass? You betcha. A good example would be what happened to Ethnic Serbs in Croatia and Kosovo in the 1990's... they had to relocate to Serbia proper.

The good news is Russia has plenty of land to resettle those people.