Tom Paine 1949
Diamond Member
- Mar 15, 2020
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I’ve long argued that the big winner of this election would be ... capitalism. But for those who are interested in betting — at this late date — on which capitalist politician will come out on top, Biden or Trump, here is a hint on what the biggest of the big-boy betting casinos is thinking — the stock market:
Ahead of the election, analysts had said a key risk to financial market stability was the possibility that Trump would contest the result if he lost, or refuse to leave office.
Still, even as that scenario has been playing out, the benchmark S&P 500 stock index is up approximately 6% since Election Day. Sectors that were expected to outperform under President-elect Joe Biden are surging, such as cannabis stocks and clean energy. Private prison stocks have dropped by 8% or more, reflecting Biden’s proposal to end federal use of private facilities.
“The market believes that the Biden victory is unlikely to be overturned,” said Maneesh Deshpande, head of equity derivatives at Barclays....
Market expectations of volatility are higher in late December to early January, around when Georgia’s Jan. 5 run-off election for its two U.S. Senate seats, which will decide whether Biden’s Democrats can gain majority control of that chamber.
Moody’s Investors Service, in a note on Tuesday, warned that ongoing legal challenges to Biden’s projected victory could unsettle markets and stir social tensions, which could have a material impact on the U.S. recovery.
Still, Moody’s said its assumption was that “U.S. institutions will eventually resolve these issues without causing any meaningful, enduring credit impact.”...
Wall Street is not overly worried Trump can overturn election
***
Here is an earlier discussion on how our modern “crony capitalist” / “state capitalist” / “late capitalist” / “global financial capitalist” system — (take your pick) — pretty much always wins its bets:
And the Big Winner is ... the Stock Market!
Ahead of the election, analysts had said a key risk to financial market stability was the possibility that Trump would contest the result if he lost, or refuse to leave office.
Still, even as that scenario has been playing out, the benchmark S&P 500 stock index is up approximately 6% since Election Day. Sectors that were expected to outperform under President-elect Joe Biden are surging, such as cannabis stocks and clean energy. Private prison stocks have dropped by 8% or more, reflecting Biden’s proposal to end federal use of private facilities.
“The market believes that the Biden victory is unlikely to be overturned,” said Maneesh Deshpande, head of equity derivatives at Barclays....
Market expectations of volatility are higher in late December to early January, around when Georgia’s Jan. 5 run-off election for its two U.S. Senate seats, which will decide whether Biden’s Democrats can gain majority control of that chamber.
Moody’s Investors Service, in a note on Tuesday, warned that ongoing legal challenges to Biden’s projected victory could unsettle markets and stir social tensions, which could have a material impact on the U.S. recovery.
Still, Moody’s said its assumption was that “U.S. institutions will eventually resolve these issues without causing any meaningful, enduring credit impact.”...
Wall Street is not overly worried Trump can overturn election
***
Here is an earlier discussion on how our modern “crony capitalist” / “state capitalist” / “late capitalist” / “global financial capitalist” system — (take your pick) — pretty much always wins its bets:
And the Big Winner is ... the Stock Market!