Tired of TACO's? NACHO's are on the menu.

[berg80]

‘Not a Chance Hormuz Opens’: How Wall Street’s new NACHO trade bets on a prolonged oil shock​

Move over TACO trade. Traders now have a new acronym for a market increasingly skeptical that the Strait of Hormuz crisis will end anytime soon: NACHO.

The shorthand “Not A Chance Hormuz Opens” has emerged on trading desks and among market commentators to describe growing skepticism that repeated remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump about reopening the key shipping route will lead to a swift resolution.

“It’s essentially the market losing hope in the chance of a quick fix,” eToro market analyst Zavier Wong told CNBC.

“For most of this crisis, every ceasefire headline triggered a sharp selloff in oil, and traders kept pricing in a resolution that never came. NACHO is an acknowledgment that higher oil isn’t a temporary shock to trade around, it’s the current market environment.”

As recently as Thursday, the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides accusing the other of starting the confrontation.

The renewed hostilities further imperil the two countries’ ceasefire agreement, which had already been strained by repeated accusations of violations.

‘Not a Chance Hormuz Opens’: How Wall Street’s new NACHO trade bets on a prolonged oil shock

Traders are embracing the “NACHO” trade, betting Hormuz disruptions and elevated oil prices will persist longer than expected.

www.cnbc.com

If "the street" has really adopted that frame of mind, implying $4.50 gasoline will continue to go higher, fertilizer will continue to be in short supply threatening the global food supply, and many commodities that use petroleum in their production will not be produced, then what the heck is the market doing at record highs? Having to pay more for gas, for diesel fuel, for jet fuel, for anything that is transported by trucks including food, that's inflationary. Implying interest rates won't be cut. There are not the conditions for solid economic growth yet the stock market marches higher. What gives?

 

[pknopp]

Everything is going to go through the roof.

 

[candycorn]

‘Not a Chance Hormuz Opens’: How Wall Street’s new NACHO trade bets on a prolonged oil shock​

Move over TACO trade. Traders now have a new acronym for a market increasingly skeptical that the Strait of Hormuz crisis will end anytime soon: NACHO.

The shorthand “Not A Chance Hormuz Opens” has emerged on trading desks and among market commentators to describe growing skepticism that repeated remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump about reopening the key shipping route will lead to a swift resolution.

“It’s essentially the market losing hope in the chance of a quick fix,” eToro market analyst Zavier Wong told CNBC.

“For most of this crisis, every ceasefire headline triggered a sharp selloff in oil, and traders kept pricing in a resolution that never came. NACHO is an acknowledgment that higher oil isn’t a temporary shock to trade around, it’s the current market environment.”

As recently as Thursday, the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides accusing the other of starting the confrontation.

The renewed hostilities further imperil the two countries’ ceasefire agreement, which had already been strained by repeated accusations of violations.

‘Not a Chance Hormuz Opens’: How Wall Street’s new NACHO trade bets on a prolonged oil shock

Traders are embracing the “NACHO” trade, betting Hormuz disruptions and elevated oil prices will persist longer than expected.

www.cnbc.com

If "the street" has really adopted that frame of mind, implying $4.50 gasoline will continue to go higher, fertilizer will continue to be in short supply threatening the global food supply, and many commodities that use petroleum in their production will not be produced, then what the heck is the market doing at record highs? Having to pay more for gas, for diesel fuel, for jet fuel, for anything that is transported by trucks including food, that's inflationary. Implying interest rates won't be cut. There are not the conditions for solid economic growth yet the stock market marches higher. What gives?

NACHO...nice...

 

[ColonelAngus]

Racist.

We are all gonna die.

 

[jacksonlamb]

NACHOs for everyone.

We are all going to die.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

What gives?

It's the K shaped economy.

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

‘Not a Chance Hormuz Opens’: How Wall Street’s new NACHO trade bets on a prolonged oil shock​

Move over TACO trade. Traders now have a new acronym for a market increasingly skeptical that the Strait of Hormuz crisis will end anytime soon: NACHO.

The shorthand “Not A Chance Hormuz Opens” has emerged on trading desks and among market commentators to describe growing skepticism that repeated remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump about reopening the key shipping route will lead to a swift resolution.

“It’s essentially the market losing hope in the chance of a quick fix,” eToro market analyst Zavier Wong told CNBC.

“For most of this crisis, every ceasefire headline triggered a sharp selloff in oil, and traders kept pricing in a resolution that never came. NACHO is an acknowledgment that higher oil isn’t a temporary shock to trade around, it’s the current market environment.”

As recently as Thursday, the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides accusing the other of starting the confrontation.

The renewed hostilities further imperil the two countries’ ceasefire agreement, which had already been strained by repeated accusations of violations.

‘Not a Chance Hormuz Opens’: How Wall Street’s new NACHO trade bets on a prolonged oil shock

Traders are embracing the “NACHO” trade, betting Hormuz disruptions and elevated oil prices will persist longer than expected.

www.cnbc.com

If "the street" has really adopted that frame of mind, implying $4.50 gasoline will continue to go higher, fertilizer will continue to be in short supply threatening the global food supply, and many commodities that use petroleum in their production will not be produced, then what the heck is the market doing at record highs? Having to pay more for gas, for diesel fuel, for jet fuel, for anything that is transported by trucks including food, that's inflationary. Implying interest rates won't be cut. There are not the conditions for solid economic growth yet the stock market marches higher. What gives?

All the consequence of Trump's failed, illegal war of choice.

 

[berg80]

Consumer sentiment falls to fresh record low in May as surging gas prices hit outlook​

Surging gas prices due to the Iran war sent consumer sentiment to a new low in the early part of May, according to a University of Michigan survey Friday.

The school’s closely watched Survey of Consumers posted a 48.2 preliminary reading, down 3.2% from April’s prior record swoon and off 7.7% from a year ago. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for 49.7.

Inflation fears were the primary driver of the continued trend lower in consumer attitudes.

The trend, which also saw the current conditions index tumble 9%, is “owing to a surge in concerns about high prices both for personal finances as well as buying conditions for major purchases,” the survey’s director, Joanne Hsu, said.

One-third of respondents mentioned gas prices as the biggest cause of concern. However, another one-third also cited tariffs — both connected to President Donald Trump, who launched an attack on Iran in late February and announced an aggressive slate of tariffs in April 2025.

Consumer sentiment falls to fresh record low in May as surging gas prices hit outlook

Surging gas prices due to the Iran war sent consumer sentiment to a new low in the early part of May.

www.cnbc.com

The respondents to the survey just aren't paying attention. Don says the economy is great.

 

[kyzr]

Consumer sentiment falls to fresh record low in May as surging gas prices hit outlook​

Surging gas prices due to the Iran war sent consumer sentiment to a new low in the early part of May, according to University of Michigan survey
The school’s closely watched Survey of Consumers posted a 48.2 preliminary reading, down 3.2% from April’s prior record swoon and off 7.7% from a year ago. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for 49.7.
Inflation fears were the primary driver of the continued trend lower in consumer attitudes.
The trend, which also saw the current conditions index tumble 9%, is “owing to a surge in concerns about high prices both for personal finances as well as buying conditions for major purchases,” the survey’s director, Joanne Hsu, said.
One-third of respondents mentioned gas prices as the biggest cause of concern. However, another one-third also cited tariffs — both connected to President Donald Trump, who launched an attack on Iran in late February and announced an aggressive slate of tariffs in April 2025.
The respondents to the survey just aren't paying attention. Don says the economy is great.

The stock market keeps going up, the economy is fine.

 

[jacksonlamb]

Affordability is a word that Trump can't spell. Or change the meaning.

 

[dudmuck]

The stock market keeps going up, the economy is fine.

 

[kyzr]

Can't debate so you put up a stupid meme?

 

[sparky]

Gotta love these folks betting against their own country....... ~S~

 

[jacksonlamb]

Can't debate so you put up a stupid meme?

The stock market is not main street, goober.

 

[kyzr]

The stock market is not main street, goober.

Workers generally have 401k accounts, so I could argue it is.

But I was actually referring to the US economy when I referenced the stock market doing well.(post #10)

 

[jacksonlamb]

Workers generally have 401k accounts, so I could argue it is.

But I was actually referring to the US economy when I referenced the stock market doing well.(post #10)

It is. But main street and the working classes are hammered with "affordability" issues that is going to spike MAGA hopes for remaining in the majority this fall.

 

[kyzr]

It is. But main street and the working classes are hammered with "affordability" issues that is going to spike MAGA hopes for remaining in the majority this fall.

Only if the voters forget how badly the democrats ran the country.
Open borders, sanctuary cities & states, millions of illegals getting free food, and free housing increased prices from the Law of Supply and Demand. More demand with the same supply means prices go up.
We got a dozen eggs today for $1. Prices can come down, but only with the right policies.

 

[jacksonlamb]

Only if the voters forget how badly the democrats ran the country.
Open borders, sanctuary cities & states, millions of illegals getting free food, and free housing increased prices from the Law of Supply and Demand. More demand with the same supply means prices go up.
We got a dozen eggs today for $1. Prices can come down, but only with the right policies.

Won't matter. PPI and CPI up. Bonds up. Gas up. Inflation way up. Trump "does not care" about Americans 'affordaility."

Indies hate him, Dems hate him, women hate him, he has lost what he gained in peope of color, and he is shedding MaGA (never, ever thought that would happen.

I bet he will stroke before elections.

 

[kyzr]

Won't matter. PPI and CPI up. Bonds up. Gas up. Inflation way up. Trump "does not care" about Americans 'affordability."

Indies hate him, Dems hate him, women hate him, he has lost what he gained in people of color, and he is shedding MAGA (never, ever thought that would happen. I bet he will stroke before elections.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, but have you seen the democrat numbers?