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Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson warns US needs an emergency 'break-the-glass' plan if Treasury demand collapses
Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson on Thursday urged U.S. policymakers to prepare an emergency plan in case demand for Treasurys breaks down â warning that a crisis in the government bond market could trigger severe consequences across the economy.
âWe need an emergency break-the-glass plan which is targeted and short term on the shelf, so itâs ready to go when we hit the wall,â Paulson said in an interview with Bloomberg Televisionâs Wall Street Week on Thursday.
Paulsonâs warning comes as investors grow increasingly concerned about the waning appeal of U.S. Treasury debt. Persistent deficits, heavy debt issuance and inflation worries have weighed on longer-term government bonds recently.
Paulson said a crisis in the Treasury market would differ in a crucial way from the 2008 financial meltdown, when the U.S. government still had enough fiscal capacity to step in and contain the damage. This time, instead of centering around the private sector, a Treasury crisis could hamper the governmentâs ability to finance itself.
In 2008, âas bad as it was,â the government had fiscal firepower to address the credit meltdown,â Paulson noted. âYou can come in and clean up the mess.â
Nevertheless, in a public-debt crisis, âwhen you hit the wall and youâre trying to issue Treasurys, and the Fed is the only buyer and the prices of the Treasurys are going down and interest rates are up, thatâs a dangerous thing.â
In other words, if demand for Treasurys drops significantly, investors may ask for higher yields before buying more. That would make it more expensive for the government to borrow, and those bigger interest payments would make the deficit even larger, which gives investors another reason to worry.
Still, Paulson said itâs hard for him to predict a timeline regarding when such a crisis might eventually happen.
âPeople say, âWhen are you going to hit the wall?â I obviously donât know â itâs impossible to know,â he told Bloomberg. âWhen we hit it, it will be vicious, so we have to prepare for that eventuality.â
In a statement Thursday night, the Paulson Institute clarified that Paulson was âclear that his concerns about the debt were not immediate and that he believed the U.S. economy remains the most resilient major economy in the world and is most able to withstand the uncertainty, including the impact of the war in Iran. He also noted that the dollar is indeed stronger in the wake of the current situation.â
The 10-year Treasury yield rose 2.9 basis points to end at 4.308% on Thursday, while the 30-year Treasury yield climbed 3.9 basis points to 4.929%.
Notice how he says when it happens, and not if.