Very warm, no modern day trees, no ice, high seas

[westwall]

You say "There is no evidence that shows how much time was involved" but you also claim the hard parts developed simultaneously. If you are a scientist, please explain the apparent contradiction to this non-scientist.

The fossil record all over the world simultaneously (to the best of our ABILITY to measure) suddenly develops hard parts. If you bothered to read for comprehension I state that it is most likely that it took millions of years to occur, there is simply no time references available.

 

[westwall]

I've conversed with ding before and I seem to recall a mystical theme in his posts.

So what. They haven't used a religious term in this discussion. Stay on the subject without bringing YOUR pre conceived ideas along.

 

[ding]

Not sure what an en mass genetic mutation is?

Occurring across a species at approximately the same time.

I don't think new species pop up in onesies and twosies.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Occurring across a species at approximately the same time.

I don't think new species pop up in onesies and twosies.

So most individuals across a species, experiencing the same mutation at the same time? Seems far fetched.

 

[ding]

I don't think nature cares about me one way or the other.

Ok. What does nature not caring about you have to do with nature behaving in an interconnected manner?

Does your belief that nature not caring about you mean you can't see how nature is interconnected?

 

[alang1216]

The fossil record all over the world simultaneously (to the best of our ABILITY to measure) suddenly develops hard parts. If you bothered to read for comprehension I state that it is most likely that it took millions of years to occur, there is simply no time references available.

So you're saying that if a population developed a shell of some sort and that shell offered a survival advantage, you'd expect it to spread. If that spreading took millions of years it would appear to us to be instantaneous because the fossil record is so spotty. Works for me.

 

[alang1216]

Occurring across a species at approximately the same time.

I don't think new species pop up in onesies and twosies.

Is this another example where we don't know the real elapsed time?

 

[alang1216]

Ok. What does nature not caring about you have to do with nature behaving in an interconnected manner?

Does your belief that nature not caring about you mean you can't see how nature is interconnected?

We all share the same universe so of course we are connected in space and time. What other connections do you think exist?

 

[ding]

So most individuals across a species, experiencing the same mutation at the same time? Seems far fetched.

Why does it seem far fetched?

 

[ding]

I've conversed with ding before and I seem to recall a mystical theme in his posts.

That's probably because you are a hammer looking for a nail.

When I am discussing faith and my beliefs about the origin questions I leave no doubt. Pretty much everything else.... that's you looking for something to argue over.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Why does it seem far fetched?

That a random mutation would occur in several individuals simultaneously? Seems self-evidently far fetched. Seems infinitely more likely for mutations spread through the population via breeding. Are there any studies on this? I can't seem to find any.

 

[ding]

Darwin got lots of stuff wrong, especially when he applied his theories to man's evolution. His initial work was a masterpiece but each one after was worse than the one before.

Good. Then we are in agreement.

Although I don't see how his original work actually explained the ORIGIN of species. I see his work more as explaining the evolution of a species.

 

[ding]

That a random mutation would occur in several individuals simultaneously? Seems self-evidently far fetched. Seems infinitely more likely for mutations spread through the population via breeding. Are there any studies on this? I can't seem to find any.

Who said anything about random? If stasis is the norm followed by an abrupt change then it seems to me that the mutation occurs across the herd at the same general time. So I wouldn't necessarily call that random.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Who said anything about random?

I did. How else does a mutation occur, besides randomly? I would love to know.

If stasis is the norm followed by an abrupt change then it seems to me that the mutation occurs across the herd at the same general time.

Yes, I know. But that seems ridiculous and requires a leap of magical thought. Much more simple to say the trait spread through the population.

 

[ding]

Is this another example where we don't know the real elapsed time?

Maybe, but long periods of stasis followed by abrupt changes seems to indicate a genetic driver. So onesies and twosies would be hard pressed to serve as feedstock. Not to mention the greater likelihood of a limited gene pool that would have genetic inbreeding consequences. So it seems to me the best answer that fits the data is long periods of stasis followed by an abrupt genetic mutation over a portion of the herd significant enough to establish a clean gene pool.

 

[ding]

I did. How else does a mutation occur, besides randomly? I would love to know.

Yes, I know. But that seems ridiculous and requires a leap of magical thought. Much more simple to say the trait spread through the population.

If the herd experiences the same genetic mutation that does not seem random to me.

It only seems magical to you because you can't wrap your mind around an answer that addresses the data.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

the herd experiences the same genetic mutation that does not seem random to me.

But they don't. Glad that's settled. Ding, you are being circular.

How else does a mutation happen, other than randomly? I don't see how.

 

[ding]

So you're saying that if a population developed a shell of some sort and that shell offered a survival advantage, you'd expect it to spread. If that spreading took millions of years it would appear to us to be instantaneous because the fossil record is so spotty. Works for me.

That seems rather shaky to me.

 

[ding]

But they don't. Glad that's settled. Ding, you are being circular.

How else does a mutation happen, other than randomly? I don't see how.

You don't know that genetic mutations cannot happen across a herd. It's a numbers game. It's called statistics. So still not settled.

Like I said before... long periods of stasis followed by abrupt changes seems to indicate a genetic driver. So onesies and twosies would be hard pressed to serve as feedstock. Not to mention the greater likelihood of a limited gene pool that would have genetic inbreeding consequences. So it seems to me the best answer that fits the data is long periods of stasis followed by an abrupt genetic mutation over a portion of the herd significant enough to establish a clean gene pool for an emerging species.

And since that logic freaks you out let me drop another bomb on you. When the first of the new species are born you won't be able to tell it's a new species. It's only sometime between adolescence and adulthood that it becomes obvious. In other words, you can't tell what it is when it is born. You can only tell what it is after it has developed. Hence there should be no expectation for transitional fossils.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

So you're saying that if a population developed a shell of some sort and that shell offered a survival advantage, you'd expect it to spread. If that spreading took millions of years it would appear to us to be instantaneous because the fossil record is so spotty.

Yep, pretty much what the scientists say. Along with possible changes in the water. Perhaps it started when some minerals precipitated out onto them, and this provided an advantage. The chemicals in/on the individuals that helped that were "selected for". The more efficient they were at collecting the calcium and then shaping it, the more advantage they had. Some were just mere tubes. Not perfect tubes, either. Wrinkly, bent tubes. If you were looking for a "transitional" fossil between "no shell" and "cool shells", there you have it, 540 million years ago.
And something like this could happen, start to finish, over millions of years, especially in the tiny, earliest "shellies". These tiny creatures likely multiplied quickly, even before having shells.

This is where you get into the math/theory of phase changes, which is crucial to punctuated equilibrium.

This link is to 8:12 of the video, which starts the relevant part , re: phase change



Point being, mathematicians propose that there are likely tipping points in punctuated equilibrium. These are the phase changes. And that, when a trait with a strong enough advantage spreads far and quickly enough (but not even , necessarily, through most of the individuals), then the trait can very quickly come to dominate the species. Even globally.