US Murder Rate Headed for Record 1-Year Drop

[Meathead]

The U.S. appears headed for the largest one-year drop in murders in history, according to a well-known crime analyst.

That's the conclusion of crime statistics expert Jeff Asher, who says new national data show killings plunging at a pace not seen in modern recordkeeping.

According to Asher's Real-Time Crime Index (RTCI), the United States is on track for the biggest single-year decline in murders ever recorded — a striking reversal after the COVID-era crime surge.

Last month, FBI Director Kash Patel said the 2025 homicide rate will be the lowest in "modern history," crediting a bureau-wide shift toward fighting violent crime.

Independent analysts such as Asher say the data strongly point in that direction.

RTCI is a large national database that compiles reported crime data from hundreds of law enforcement agencies and is updated regularly, long before official federal numbers are released.

RTCI data currently available through October show murders down nearly 20% compared with the same period in 2024.

The index's glossary notes that its murder category excludes cases such as accidental deaths and deaths caused by negligence, meaning the index aims to track "willful (nonnegligent) killings," aligning closely with standard FBI definitions.

https://www.newsmax.com/us/u-s-murder-rate-record/2025/12/24/id/1239532/?ns_mail_uid=8b9eb87a-9dca-4572-9849-d1110f8f0987&ns_mail_job=DM896353_12242025&s=acs&dkt_nbr=010104hucex8

BJ -
Of course -
We will see how well this trend continues.

This would have been wonderful news if Kamala had been president. Alas, she is not.

 

[jknowgood]

Shitholes

Name one. That's worse than LA.

 

[struth]

Our major cities are magnificent
Republican run cities are shit holes

Yet people are fleeing NyC, Chicago and San Fran in record numbers

And you haven’t been able to name one Republican run city that’s a shithole

 

[Foxfyre]

Exactly what policies do you believe have cut crime??? Be specific.

I can’t think of a single thing Trump has done to cut crime, so I’m curious as to what you believe is working.

Deporting criminal illegals has done a great deal to cut crime. Supporting the police and other law enforcement instead of demonizing them has done a great deal to cut crime.

 

[westwall]

Shitholes

Yeah clean, no dope head zombies shitting in the streets.

 

[Lockback]

Who is denying what? We are not questioning the fact that the murder rate is down, However , we do need to question why. Do you understand the difference between causation and correlation ? Where is the evidence that there is a link to Trump's draconian policies?

This completely sums up the problem with "progressivism": a staggering lack of common sense.
If criminals are charged and serving time in jail, they're not committing crimes out on the street.
If criminals are given no cash bail, walk away from the courthouse free with no punishment, they commit crimes again.
See?
It's not real complicated. Liberals/leftists/communists/progressives have absolutely no common sense. They feel more sorry for the criminal than the victim. They don't believe in punishment. And so tens of thousands of criminals go free to wreak havoc on civilized people instead of being off the streets in prison.
Simple.

Giving credit to Trump is a false cause logical fallacy , It seem that you're the ones who have something wrong with you.

 

[TheProgressivePatriot]

This completely sums up the problem with "progressivism": a staggering lack of common sense.
If criminals are charged and serving time in jail, they're not committing crimes out on the street.
If criminals are given no cash bail, walk away from the courthouse free with no punishment, they commit crimes again.
See?
It's not real complicated. Liberals/leftists/communists/progressives have absolutely no common sense. They feel more sorry for the criminal than the victim. They don't believe in punishment. And so tens of thousands of criminals go free to wreak havoc on civilized people instead of being off the streets in prison.
Simple.

That is a boatload of bizarre bovine excrement. Clearly you have little e or no knowledge of the criminal justice system and especially how cashless bail works.

I suggest you that educate your self on the subject, But you wot. It's much easier to mindlessly accuse Democrats of being soft on crime and supporting the rights of criminals over victims.

 

[HikerGuy83]

It's much easier to mindlessly accuse Democrats of being soft on crime and supporting the rights of criminals over victims.

They make it easy

 

[Billiejeens]

That is a boatload of bizarre bovine excrement. Clearly you have little e or no knowledge of the criminal justice system and especially how cashless bail works.

I suggest you that educate your self on the subject, But you wot. It's much easier to mindlessly accuse Democrats of being soft on crime and supporting the rights of criminals over victims.

It's literally not in dispute in the real world.
Your politicians run for office on that fact.

 

[rightwinger]

Yeah clean, no dope head zombies shitting in the streets.

No, you get Rednecks with yards littered with abandoned cars, old washing machines, tires and beer cans

 

[candycorn]

The U.S. appears headed for the largest one-year drop in murders in history, according to a well-known crime analyst.

That's the conclusion of crime statistics expert Jeff Asher, who says new national data show killings plunging at a pace not seen in modern recordkeeping.

According to Asher's Real-Time Crime Index (RTCI), the United States is on track for the biggest single-year decline in murders ever recorded — a striking reversal after the COVID-era crime surge.

Last month, FBI Director Kash Patel said the 2025 homicide rate will be the lowest in "modern history," crediting a bureau-wide shift toward fighting violent crime.

Independent analysts such as Asher say the data strongly point in that direction.

RTCI is a large national database that compiles reported crime data from hundreds of law enforcement agencies and is updated regularly, long before official federal numbers are released.

RTCI data currently available through October show murders down nearly 20% compared with the same period in 2024.

The index's glossary notes that its murder category excludes cases such as accidental deaths and deaths caused by negligence, meaning the index aims to track "willful (nonnegligent) killings," aligning closely with standard FBI definitions.

https://www.newsmax.com/us/u-s-murder-rate-record/2025/12/24/id/1239532/?ns_mail_uid=8b9eb87a-9dca-4572-9849-d1110f8f0987&ns_mail_job=DM896353_12242025&s=acs&dkt_nbr=010104hucex8

BJ -
Of course -
We will see how well this trend continues.

Violent crime has been on the decline for years.

 

[kyzr]

No, you get Rednecks with yards littered with abandoned cars, old washing machines, tires and beer cans

 

[Deplorable Yankee]

deportations have certainly helped

 

[westwall]

No, you get Rednecks with yards littered with abandoned cars, old washing machines, tires and beer cans

There is certainly some of that. But compared to zombies and human shit all over the place I will take rednecks any day of the week, I am not in danger of contracting dysentery or typhus.

Enjoy

 

[Lockback]

That is a boatload of bizarre bovine excrement. Clearly you have little e or no knowledge of the criminal justice system and especially how cashless bail works.

I suggest you that educate your self on the subject, But you wot. It's much easier to mindlessly accuse Democrats of being soft on crime and supporting the rights of criminals over victims.

I suggest you flush your Leftist philosophy down the toilet where it belongs and wake the F up.
Your party is weak on crime. That's not an opinion. That's a fact. Look at the District Attorneys that George Soros has funded getting elected in blue districts and look at their records.
They're abysmal. Soros loves chaos and crime because it benefits his Far Left outlook.
You can kick your heels and throw apple sauce at the wall but the facts back me up right down the line.
Democrats are weak on crime. Crime thrives where Democrats are in power. It's a fact. It's the truth. If you don't like it, too bad.
Grow up and accept reality.

 

[TheProgressivePatriot]

It's literally not in dispute in the real world.
Your politicians run for office on that fact.

What "real world"are you living in

 

[TheProgressivePatriot]

I suggest you flush your Leftist philosophy down the toilet where it belongs and wake the F up.
Your party is weak on crime. That's not an opinion. That's a fact. Look at the District Attorneys that George Soros has funded getting elected in blue districts and look at their records.
They're abysmal. Soros loves chaos and crime because it benefits his Far Left outlook.
You can kick your heels and throw apple sauce at the wall but the facts back me up right down the line.
Democrats are weak on crime. Crime thrives where Democrats are in power. It's a fact. It's the truth. If you don't like it, too bad.
Grow up and accept reality.

When all else fails,,,,Invoke the George Soros bogyman . Got anything else?? If you want to find chaos and crime , look at the Trup white house.

 

[westwall]

When all else fails,,,,Invoke the George Soros bogyman . Got anything else?? If you want to find chaos and crime , look at the Trup white house.

Soros isn't a boogieman. He's a vile Marxist piece of shit. His goal is the destruction of the USA.

 

[Lockback]

When all else fails,,,,Invoke the George Soros bogyman . Got anything else?? If you want to find chaos and crime , look at the Trup white house.

The abject stupidity of the Left never ceases to amaze me.
Thank you so much for once again proving my point.
P.S. George Soros isn't "bogyman".
He's one of the most evil people in the United States, a complete traitor and should have been long gone, paying the price for his treason.

 

[WEATHER53]

Deporting criminal illegals has done a great deal to cut crime. Supporting the police and other law enforcement instead of demonizing them has done a great deal to cut crime.

Responsible is the way