US GDP shrinks 2.9% in first quarter

[Freewill]

Simple, because our economy is so fragile that a bad winter caused by CC is the only reason the GDP dropped in the first quarter. Now that the air is fresh and the Sun is shining that will make the country produce more. Market demand has nothing to do with the GDP.

Typically you look at something to explain what happened or what will happen. I dont buy a severe winter (and it wasnt severe all over the country) cut GDP to negative territory. SOmeone posted the link that Obamacare spending played havoc. That makes sense.
I suspect they will massage numbers to show growth. OTherwise it will officially be a recession and the Democrats dont want that ahead of an election. So look for growth to return to 1-2%.

There have been some numbers that indicate a strengthening foundation - I'm not saying robust growth, just some growth. The "experts" were predicting about 3.0% for the year, and that ain't gonna happen. I'm thinking maybe 1.8% to 2.2% when the dust settles. I'd love to be wrong.

Obviously we're not out of the woods. I'd put the chances of stagflation at about 20%, which is a helluva lot higher than I'd like.

.

OK, in a previous post you indicated that we should be looking for a 3 to 3.5 percent increase this quarter. Now I am not a math wizard but if the economy shrank 3 percent the first quarter and grows 3 percent this quarter does that mean you are predicting no growth for the rest of the year?

 

[TooTall]

Food and energy prices will go down when Cannabis Sativa is legalized again.

http://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL32725.pdf

Prices will still continue to go up but you won't care as long as you are high.

 

[Mac1958]

Typically you look at something to explain what happened or what will happen. I dont buy a severe winter (and it wasnt severe all over the country) cut GDP to negative territory. SOmeone posted the link that Obamacare spending played havoc. That makes sense.
I suspect they will massage numbers to show growth. OTherwise it will officially be a recession and the Democrats dont want that ahead of an election. So look for growth to return to 1-2%.

There have been some numbers that indicate a strengthening foundation - I'm not saying robust growth, just some growth. The "experts" were predicting about 3.0% for the year, and that ain't gonna happen. I'm thinking maybe 1.8% to 2.2% when the dust settles. I'd love to be wrong.

Obviously we're not out of the woods. I'd put the chances of stagflation at about 20%, which is a helluva lot higher than I'd like.

.

OK, in a previous post you indicated that we should be looking for a 3 to 3.5 percent increase this quarter. Now I am not a math wizard but if the economy shrank 3 percent the first quarter and grows 3 percent this quarter does that mean you are predicting no growth for the rest of the year?

No, I'm thinking maybe 3.0% to 4.0% per quarter for the rest of the year, and that would get us to the 1.8% to 2.2%. Massive caveat here: Any fucking thing can happen between now and January, so that's just what we're hearing right now. And there's some troubling signs of inflation. That's why I'm still worried a bit about stagflation.

.

 

[TooTall]

How much did the economy shrink in 2007 before Obama took office? You know, the biggest financial crash since 1929? Overseen by fiscally Conservative George W. "I torture POWs over lies" Bush?

How much of our infrastructure could have been repaired with the $4t+ squandered on invading and torturing Iraq over lies?

We could have done all of those non-existant 'shovel ready' jobs instead of the gubmint investing in a few dozen green companies that are now bankrupt don't you agree?

 

[The Rabbi]

Simple, because our economy is so fragile that a bad winter caused by CC is the only reason the GDP dropped in the first quarter. Now that the air is fresh and the Sun is shining that will make the country produce more. Market demand has nothing to do with the GDP.

Typically you look at something to explain what happened or what will happen. I dont buy a severe winter (and it wasnt severe all over the country) cut GDP to negative territory. SOmeone posted the link that Obamacare spending played havoc. That makes sense.
I suspect they will massage numbers to show growth. OTherwise it will officially be a recession and the Democrats dont want that ahead of an election. So look for growth to return to 1-2%.

There have been some numbers that indicate a strengthening foundation - I'm not saying robust growth, just some growth. The "experts" were predicting about 3.0% for the year, and that ain't gonna happen. I'm thinking maybe 1.8% to 2.2% when the dust settles. I'd love to be wrong.

Obviously we're not out of the woods. I'd put the chances of stagflation at about 20%, which is a helluva lot higher than I'd like.

.

There has been a slight increase in the number of people working, and in household income (that was this AM). But any increase is getting eaten up by higher prices for gas and of course health insurance. I dont see discretionary spending increasing. I dont see business investment increasing. I dont see gov't spending increasing. Ergo there can't be much growth.
Again we are assumign the numbers are real. Given this administration I do not put it past them to fudge numbers to make them look positive and we ae actually in a recession right now.

 

[asterism]

Retraction is over exaggerated and due to the terrible weather caused by far right wing hot air.

Weather.

HAHA

http://twitter.com/StephenMoore/status/481816251728420864/photo/1

 

[hangover]

I think I remember something about there being a lot of snow in the first Quarter....Na, couldn't be a factor.

 

[bendog]

I think I remember something about there being a lot of snow in the first Quarter....Na, couldn't be a factor.

Yeah, that's why there's no global warming! It snowed like a sumbitch.

 

[Dad2three]

It's not possible to loose 700,000 a month. stupid talking points, which seems to be what you're here for, to spread the bull. We are supposed to be in the the 5th year of the so- called "Recovery" the economy shouldn't be shrinking. Of course nothing is Obama's fault in the minds of you leftist nutjobs

Job losses caused by the Great Recession

September 2008 – 432,000 jobs lost
October 2008 – 489,000 jobs lost
November 2008 – 803,000 jobs lost
December 2008 – 661,000 jobs lost
January 2009 – 818,000 jobs lost
February 2009 – 724,000 jobs lost
March 2009 – 799,000 jobs lost
April 2009 – 692,000 jobs lost

Job losses caused by the Great Recession - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2009/03/art2full.pdf

the economy shed 803,000 jobs. Between November 2008 and December 2008, the economy lost 661,000 jobs. And between January 2009 and December 2008, the economy lost 818,000 -- the highest number of Bush’s tenure


Michael Moore said U.S. lost millions of jobs per month under Bush | PolitiFact

the housing bubble certainly wasn't caused by Bush alone that's for sure..but whatever, The recession was suppose to be over 5 years ago. the economy shrinking at 3% ? unheard in a "Recovery"

THANKS FOR AGREEING, 700,000+ JOBS LOST A MONTH THANKS TO BUSH/GOP POLICY WAS POSSIBLE


Right-wingers Want To Erase How George Bush's "Homeowner Society" Helped Cause The Economic Collapse


The "turmoil in financial markets clearly was triggered by a dramatic weakening of underwriting standards for U.S. subprime mortgages, beginning in late 2004 and extending into 2007," the President's Working Group on Financial Markets OCT 2008


2004 Republican Convention:

Another priority for a new term is to build an ownership society, because ownership brings security and dignity and independence.
...

Thanks to our policies, home ownership in America is at an all- time high.

(APPLAUSE)

Tonight we set a new goal: 7 million more affordable homes in the next 10 years, so more American families will be able to open the door and say, "Welcome to my home."



DUBYA FOUGHT ALL 50 STATE AG'S IN 2003, INVOKING A CIVIL WAR ERA RULE SAYING FEDS RULE ON "PREDATORY" LENDERS!

Dubya was warned by the FBI of an "epidemic" of mortgage fraud in 2004. He gave them less resources. Later in 2004 Dubya allowed the leverage rules to go from 12-1 to 33-1 which flooded the market with cheap money!



Bush drive for home ownership fueled housing bubble


He insisted that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac meet ambitious new goals for low-income lending.

Concerned that down payments were a barrier, Bush persuaded Congress to spend as much as $200 million a year to help first-time buyers with down payments and closing costs.

And he pushed to allow first-time buyers to qualify for government insured mortgages with no money down




Thanks again to the Bush administrations allowing the greedy & unethical brokers to operate at their will.

 

[The Rabbi]

More people were workng on Bush's last day than at any time during Obama's tenure until last month.
Fact.

 

[Dad2three]

How much of our infrastructure could have been repaired

how much of the infrastructure could have been repaired

from the 800 million stimulus

had it been spent on that as promised

we still have stimulus projects

sitting idle

with the stimulus signs rusting away

Nonsense. The stimulus worked as promised, kept US out of ANOTHER GOP great depression. Even though it was to small, 40% tax cuts/credits and 20% aid to states....

How long will this myth persist.

Economists agree: Stimulus created nearly 3 million jobs


It's no surprise that the administration would proclaim its own policies a success. But its verdict is backed by economists at Goldman Sachs, IHS Global Insight, JPMorgan Chase and Macroeconomic Advisers, who say the stimulus boosted gross domestic product by 2.1% to 2.7%.

Economists agree: Stimulus created nearly 3 million jobs - USATODAY.com




CBO Says Be Thankful For The Stimulus

As The Economist explained the run-up to the passage of the $787 billion recovery program:

The White House looked at the economic situation, sized up Congress, and took its shot. Unfortunately, the situation was far more dire than anyone in the administration or in Congress supposed..

Output in the third and fourth quarters fell by 3.7% and 8.9%, respectively, not at 0.5% and 3.8% as believed at the time. Employment was also falling much faster than estimated. Some 820,000 jobs were lost in January, rather than the 598,000 then reported. In the three months prior to the passage of stimulus, the economy cut loose 2.2m workers, not 1.8m. In January, total employment was already 1m workers below the level shown in the official data.

Klein points out that "wasn't until this year that the actual number was revealed" for Q4 2008 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As The Economist lamented, the Obama administration was "flying blind."


CBO Says Be Thankful For The Stimulus | Crooks and Liars

 

[Dad2three]

And liberals come flooding in to defend bad news because their demi god Obama might be in trouble.

Jake, you're main stream for progressives, lol.

Defend what? Obama acting as a conservative?


Lowest sustained tax burden on those 'job creators' for 80+ years, lower than Ronnie's first 6 years, where are those 'jobs, jobs, jobs'?

In China China China......or have you been sleeping RIP ?

You mean those 'job creators' having the lowest sustained tax burden in 80+ years will not create jobs in the US? Hmm, perhaps GOOD GOV'T POLICY instead of conservative's 'free trade' would work?

 

[Dad2three]

Get your Obama hate on while you can.........


The first quarter figures are all the more startling as the economy grew by 2.6% in the final three months of 2013.

But economists said more recent unemployment, manufacturing and service sector data all pointed to a sharp turnaround in the second quarter.

Analysts have forecast the economy could bounce back by as much as 4% in the second quarter.

Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial, said: "We have ample evidence that the first quarter was just a temporary setback for the economy, and we are climbing out of the hole in the current quarter."

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said: "We should have a much better second half this year and a much better 2015 than 2014."

You gonna cry? Here's a tissue.
The economy is in the dumper. Obama is at the helm....Or in name anyway. He's busy playing golf or going on campaign trips stumping for the dems.

"We crashed the economy but we don't like the way you tried to fix it." - GOP.


Couldn't possibly be the wage stagnation for 30+ years of Reaganomics tilting the playing field toward plutocracy as all the profits of increased productivity go upward to executives and insiders.



Too bad conservatives get their economic education from Rush and Fox who parrot Heritage Foundation talking points.

 

[Dad2three]

-We had the worst growth post recession of any period post war.
-Inflation was under3% and generally in the 2% range under Bush
-More people were working when Bush left office than for all of Obama's term until last month
-Bush solved the Clinton recession he inherited i short order and on the cheap

Your ignorance is duly noted.

- Bush exploded government, exploded subprime lending & still could not mach Obama's economy & job growth rate for working age population.

- CPI inflation is bogus bullshit. Bush caused Oil to increase 1,400%, Food to increase 400%, Gold to increase 600%, US Dollar index to tank 50%, House prices increased 400%, Utilities increased 400%, Gas price up 500%, Farm land prices up 400%, etc. Wages stagnate.

- 34 million Baby Boomers retire during Obama's term yet he has more people employed than Bush when he was thrown out. Obama's job growth rate for working age population is awesome.

- There were NO Clinton recessions. The first negative quarter was on Bush's watch.

From one of the liberal's favorites: Bush inherited Clinton's recession

You were probably pretty young then and don't remember.

Weird, how'd those 'job creator' policies work under Bush again? How about if we stop BEFORE Bush's great recession? Did the 'low tax' burden Bush have help? lol

IREPORT? Lol

 

[Dad2three]

More people were workng on Bush's last day than at any time during Obama's tenure until last month.
Fact.

Weird:

PRIVATE SECTOR TOTAL EMPLOYMENT

Bush: Jan 2001 111,859,000

Bush Jan 2009 111,397,0000

THAT'S A LOSS OF 673,000+ FOR CONSERVATIVES WHO ARE MATH CHALLENGED



Obama enters office Jan 2009 and the economy dumps 4+ million jobs in the first year, thanks to Dubya's policies


BUT BY FEB 2012, US HAS 111,474,000 JOBS IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR, MORE THAN WHEN BUSH LEFT OFFICE WITH

AS OF MAY 2014 THERE ARE 116,594,000 IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR, MORE THAN 5+ MILLION MORE (NET) THAN WHEN BUSH LEFT OFFICE


Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

 

[The Rabbi]

You're unhinged with Bush Derangement Syndrome. We get it.
Your credibility got shot down in about 2 days. Some kind of record.

 

[KissMy]

Bush/Cheney inherited a Peaceful Great Clinton Economy, Record High Employment Rate, Spending Cuts, Surplus Revenue was rebuilding the SS trust fund that had been stolen by previous administrations.

Dick Cheney says to US Treasury secretary Paul O’Neill before he fired him: “You know, Paul, Reagan proved deficits don’t matter. We won the election. This is our due.”

Bush/Cheney Exploded Spending, Exploded Government Employee Compensation & Pay, Exploded the Size & Power of Government, wiped out the Clinton's Surplus, Killed his Great Economy, Killed his Record High Employment Rate & killed 8,300 US citizens in a Attack they Refused to Prevent & War they campaigned to wage.

Obama was handed a steaming pile of shit, & he tended it into a growing garden.

 

[Dad2three]

You're unhinged with Bush Derangement Syndrome. We get it.
Your credibility got shot down in about 2 days. Some kind of record.

Got it, YOU are immune to REAL facts and empirical data

 

[KissMy]

More people were workng on Bush's last day than at any time during Obama's tenure until last month.
Fact.

Weird:

PRIVATE SECTOR TOTAL EMPLOYMENT

Bush: Jan 2001 111,859,000

Bush Jan 2009 111,397,0000

THAT'S A LOSS OF 673,000+ FOR CONSERVATIVES WHO ARE MATH CHALLENGED



Obama enters office Jan 2009 and the economy dumps 4+ million jobs in the first year, thanks to Dubya's policies


BUT BY FEB 2012, US HAS 111,474,000 JOBS IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR, MORE THAN WHEN BUSH LEFT OFFICE WITH

AS OF MAY 2014 THERE ARE 116,594,000 IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR, MORE THAN 5+ MILLION MORE (NET) THAN WHEN BUSH LEFT OFFICE


Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

The Bush jobs disaster is far worse when population demographics are factored in. Bush reduced the employment rate of the working age population by 17 million jobs from Clinton's rate.

 

[The Rabbi]

Bush/Cheney inherited a Peaceful Great Clinton Economy, Record High Employment Rate, Spending Cuts, Surplus Revenue was rebuilding the SS trust fund that had been stolen by previous administrations.

Dick Cheney says to US Treasury secretary Paul O’Neill before he fired him: “You know, Paul, Reagan proved deficits don’t matter. We won the election. This is our due.”

Bush/Cheney Exploded Spending, Exploded Government Employee Compensation & Pay, Exploded the Size & Power of Government, wiped out the Clinton's Surplus, Killed his Great Economy, Killed his Record High Employment Rate & killed 8,300 US citizens in a Attack they Refused to Prevent & War they campaigned to wage.

Obama was handed a steaming pile of shit, & he tended it into a growing garden.

Bush inherited the dot com bust. Bush inherited Clinton's failed policy on terrorism, leading to 9/11. Clinton inherited Reagan's successful defeat of the Soviets, allowing for the peace dividiend, which CLinton squandered.
Obama took a tough situation and made it worse.