Trump’s State-by-State Approval Ratings Should Scare the MAGA Out of Him

[GreenAndBlue]

This thread is proof that it's over for the immoral democrats and deep state

This shows people are waking up each day about really is going on and by the time of the election as even more people wakes up trump will win by a landslide and from people waking up to know how crooked the democrats are. High treason charges will follow to lock up the whole deep state traitors

The crooks made a horrible decision when they were caught trying to rig America's election against trump.. They could have ran and hid like rats but instead they chose to fight and now they will be tried for high treason crimes

And the unwise voters who voted for the crooks will be left out of voting with a logic test to qualify to vote

 

[Daryl Hunt]

Let me reiterate.... These people did an online poll of their readership. This means they were polling their own far left.. This poll shows some stunning information that should make them shudder...

IF these idiots think about what it is they posted they would pull it down fast. They polled their own and it shows over half of their base would not vote for Joe or any other democrat. This really backfired on them. Their own polling shows how fragmented their own party is..

Can you imagine using a Poll of a Supreme White National Site group and then saying that it is in line with every Republican? Okay bad example since it might apply to Trump,not necessarily to all Republicans.

 

[justoffal]

The portents of doom are aligning against Donald Trump as his chaotic outbursts and twitterings are not being well received even by GOP voters.

Voters are now seeing that Trump is an agent of disunity, discord, and chaos not an agent of change.

Donald Trump has no successes to report as his tax cuts enriched Donald Trump's favorite charity, Donald Trump and its associates, the hugely wealthy friends of Donald Trump.

Polls show "the president’s net approval ratios being underwater (i.e., negative) in 10 states he carried in 2016: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin."

Trump’s State-by-State Approval Ratings Should Scare the MAGA Out of Him

Trump’s State-by-State Approval Ratings Should Scare the MAGA Out of Him
By Ed Kilgore
A dream scenario for Democrats in 2020. Photo: 270towin.com
There has been a lot of discussion in political circles about Donald Trump’s job-approval ratings, what they portend, and Trump’s Electoral College strategy for 2020, which doesn’t necessarily require a popular-vote plurality. But in the end, of course, the conjunction of the Electoral College with Trump’s state-by-state popularity is where the deal will go down.
The online polling firm Civiqs has published a new set of state-by-state job-approval ratings for Trump as of August 11, and it shows how the president’s overall standing (a 43 percent approval rating nationally, which happens to match the current RealClearPolitics polling average) might translate into electorate votes. It’s not a pretty picture for the president, to put it mildly.
Civiqs shows the president’s net approval ratios being underwater (i.e., negative) in 10 states he carried in 2016: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin. If that were to represent how the 2020 elections turn out, Trump would have a booming 119 electoral votes. And it’s not as though he’s on a knife’s edge between victory and defeat in all these Trump 2016 states where he’s doing poorly: He’s underwater by 12 points in Pennsylvania, 11 in Michigan, and nine in Arizona, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. And there’s virtually no indication that states that narrowly went for Clinton in 2016 are trending in Trump’s direction: His approval ratios are minus 18 in Colorado, minus 15 in Minnesota, minus 12 in Nevada, and minus 27 in New Hampshire. These are, by the way, polls of registered voters, not just “adults,” so they should be a relatively sound reflection of the views of the electorate.
In case you just don’t trust this particular pollster, the other publicly available survey of state-by-state presidential job approval is from Morning Consult, and its latest numbers (as of July) are pretty similar. They show Georgia and Texas as positive for Trump, and North Carolina as very close. But all the other “battleground states” are quite the reach for the incumbent.
If you credit these polls at all, Trump’s reelection will require (1) a big late improvement in his approval ratings, which is possible but unlikely based on long-standing patterns during his polarizing presidency; (2) a campaign that succeeds in making the election turn on theoretical fears about his opponent rather than actual fears about a second Trump term, which won’t be easy either; (3) a big Republican turnout advantage, which is less likely among the larger presidential electorate than it was in 2018; or (4) some diabolical ability to thread the needle despite every contrary indicator, which superstitious Democrats fear for obvious reasons.
Get unlimited access to Intelligencer and everything else New York.
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If the fourth scenario — a win against all the evidence — is Trump’s best hope for reelection, he’s the one who needs to experience some fear and trembling heading toward 2020. If anything, there’s evidence that he is likely to undershoot rather than overshoot his approval ratings as the sitting president of a country whose direction lacks any kind of public confidence. Beyond that, even those who succeed by selling their souls to the devil don’t have the collateral to pull that off twice.

I don't know about you but I will never, ever underestimate the republican's ability to lie, cheat and steal an election. I will not underestimate russia's influence on the election either.

The 2020 election is over a year away.

Things can change very quickly. No one knows what will be happening a year from now.

What people need to do is vote. Get your friends to vote. Help people vote. Help people register to vote. Hold a voting party. Give people a ride to their voting place.

Get your friends to do the same thing.

The 2020 election is a very important election.

The portents of doom are aligning against Donald Trump as his chaotic outbursts and twitterings are not being well received even by GOP voters.

Voters are now seeing that Trump is an agent of disunity, discord, and chaos not an agent of change.

Donald Trump has no successes to report as his tax cuts enriched Donald Trump's favorite charity, Donald Trump and its associates, the hugely wealthy friends of Donald Trump.

Polls show "the president’s net approval ratios being underwater (i.e., negative) in 10 states he carried in 2016: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin."

Trump’s State-by-State Approval Ratings Should Scare the MAGA Out of Him

Trump’s State-by-State Approval Ratings Should Scare the MAGA Out of Him
By Ed Kilgore
A dream scenario for Democrats in 2020. Photo: 270towin.com
There has been a lot of discussion in political circles about Donald Trump’s job-approval ratings, what they portend, and Trump’s Electoral College strategy for 2020, which doesn’t necessarily require a popular-vote plurality. But in the end, of course, the conjunction of the Electoral College with Trump’s state-by-state popularity is where the deal will go down.
The online polling firm Civiqs has published a new set of state-by-state job-approval ratings for Trump as of August 11, and it shows how the president’s overall standing (a 43 percent approval rating nationally, which happens to match the current RealClearPolitics polling average) might translate into electorate votes. It’s not a pretty picture for the president, to put it mildly.
Civiqs shows the president’s net approval ratios being underwater (i.e., negative) in 10 states he carried in 2016: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin. If that were to represent how the 2020 elections turn out, Trump would have a booming 119 electoral votes. And it’s not as though he’s on a knife’s edge between victory and defeat in all these Trump 2016 states where he’s doing poorly: He’s underwater by 12 points in Pennsylvania, 11 in Michigan, and nine in Arizona, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. And there’s virtually no indication that states that narrowly went for Clinton in 2016 are trending in Trump’s direction: His approval ratios are minus 18 in Colorado, minus 15 in Minnesota, minus 12 in Nevada, and minus 27 in New Hampshire. These are, by the way, polls of registered voters, not just “adults,” so they should be a relatively sound reflection of the views of the electorate.
In case you just don’t trust this particular pollster, the other publicly available survey of state-by-state presidential job approval is from Morning Consult, and its latest numbers (as of July) are pretty similar. They show Georgia and Texas as positive for Trump, and North Carolina as very close. But all the other “battleground states” are quite the reach for the incumbent.
If you credit these polls at all, Trump’s reelection will require (1) a big late improvement in his approval ratings, which is possible but unlikely based on long-standing patterns during his polarizing presidency; (2) a campaign that succeeds in making the election turn on theoretical fears about his opponent rather than actual fears about a second Trump term, which won’t be easy either; (3) a big Republican turnout advantage, which is less likely among the larger presidential electorate than it was in 2018; or (4) some diabolical ability to thread the needle despite every contrary indicator, which superstitious Democrats fear for obvious reasons.
Get unlimited access to Intelligencer and everything else New York.
LEARN MORE »
If the fourth scenario — a win against all the evidence — is Trump’s best hope for reelection, he’s the one who needs to experience some fear and trembling heading toward 2020. If anything, there’s evidence that he is likely to undershoot rather than overshoot his approval ratings as the sitting president of a country whose direction lacks any kind of public confidence. Beyond that, even those who succeed by selling their souls to the devil don’t have the collateral to pull that off twice.

I don't know about you but I will never, ever underestimate the republican's ability to lie, cheat and steal an election. I will not underestimate russia's influence on the election either.

The 2020 election is over a year away.

Things can change very quickly. No one knows what will be happening a year from now.

What people need to do is vote. Get your friends to vote. Help people vote. Help people register to vote. Hold a voting party. Give people a ride to their voting place.

Get your friends to do the same thing.

The 2020 election is a very important election.

Your rhetoric is reminiscent of a giant sinkhole on the face of the intellectual human race. Holy jumped-up Jesus palomino! Every election season hears the the very same sky is falling rendition of: this is the most important election ever!

If you would make the effort to wipe the extremely thick layer of bullshit out of your eyes you would see that China is far more of an election threat than Russia ever was or ever will be.

Think about what you're saying for a minute despite all the evidence of malfeasance and corruption from the Democratic party as well. You're saying that the Democrats never lose an election fairly!

Just curious does that also apply to the Democratic primary?

Now sit down and have a Duff beer and then a Homer head slap! You utter and complete ultra-dunce!

Jo

 

[deanrd]

Look at all these billions of dollars going to farmers. Do you think it’s going to keep giving them billions of dollars after he’s elected? Hell no. Once he’s elected he’s going to tell them no healthcare no food stamps and no more money because we have to do tax cuts for billionaires.

By the time the next election comes around, it won’t be that farmers won’t vote for Trump, it’ll be that there won’t be any farmers.

 

[22lcidw]

Look at all these billions of dollars going to farmers. Do you think it’s going to keep giving them billions of dollars after he’s elected? Hell no. Once he’s elected he’s going to tell them no healthcare no food stamps and no more money because we have to do tax cuts for billionaires.

By the time the next election comes around, it won’t be that farmers won’t vote for Trump, it’ll be that there won’t be any farmers.

Oh the Progs.....the Progs.....You can almost see a family of 4 earning 50-60 thousand a year paying another 5 thousand dollars in taxes when you idiots get put back into power. The ones not privileged in employment.

 

[jc456]

I see the ploy makers are active

 

[rjs330]

This election will be decided by one of two things. Who the Democrats put up against Trump. Trump is not likable and enough people out there do not support his behaviors. But if the Democrats put up one of the far left nuts they have now, Trump will win. America is not ready for that far left crap. I think the majority of people still like what he's done for the country overall. They just don't approve of his stupid behavior. So if the Dems put up a REAL centrist I think the Dems could win.

The other thing is the economy. If the economy tanks, Trump is gone.

 

[okfine]

For those of you who check out polling, this one should grab your attention.

If this polling is what is to become of Trump in 2020, I wouldn't be surprised.

It is a month to month poll of 5,000 polled by each state. Don't be confused on the colors.
Red is disapproval.

Tracking Trump: The President’s Standing Across America

 

[Billy_Kinetta]

Don't sell crazy here. We're all booked up.

 

[Wry Catcher]

This election will be decided by one of two things. Who the Democrats put up against Trump. Trump is not likable and enough people out there do not support his behaviors. But if the Democrats put up one of the far left nuts they have now, Trump will win. America is not ready for that far left crap. I think the majority of people still like what he's done for the country overall. They just don't approve of his stupid behavior. So if the Dems put up a REAL centrist I think the Dems could win.

The other thing is the economy. If the economy tanks, Trump is gone.

You think the majority likes what he's been doing? Do parents think Trump is a good role model? Do most citizens see him as competent, informed and honest? I can't imagine anyone voting for Trump a second time. He's a man-child, immature and given to temper tantrums.

 

[JGalt]

For those of you who check out polling, this one should grab your attention.

If this polling is what is to become of Trump in 2020, I wouldn't be surprised.

It is a month to month poll of 5,000 polled by each state. Don't be confused on the colors.
Red is disapproval.

Tracking Trump: The President’s Standing Across America

"At the core of our survey research is a rigorous scientific methodology, trusted by media partners like The New York Times, Bloomberg, and POLITICO..."

About - Morning Consult

From the Morningconsult archives:

"Here are our ten predictions for the coming year in politics:

1) Donald Trump won’t be the Republican nominee..."

Welcome to 2016 - Morning Consult

"Voters Say Clinton Has Run a Better Campaign Than Trump.."

Voters Say Clinton Has Run a Better Campaign Than Trump - Morning Consult

"Iran Deal Is More Popular Than Ever, Poll Shows,,,"

Iran Deal Is More Popular Than Ever, Poll Shows - Morning Consult

"Clinton Maintains Lead in Final Poll Before Election..."

Clinton Maintains Lead in Final Poll Before Election - Morning Consult

 

[Denizen]

The portents of doom are aligning against Donald Trump as his chaotic outbursts and twitterings are not being well received even by GOP voters.

Voters are now seeing that Trump is an agent of disunity, discord, and chaos not an agent of change.

Donald Trump has no successes to report as his tax cuts enriched Donald Trump's favorite charity, Donald Trump and its associates, the hugely wealthy friends of Donald Trump.

Polls show "the president’s net approval ratios being underwater (i.e., negative) in 10 states he carried in 2016: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin."

Trump’s State-by-State Approval Ratings Should Scare the MAGA Out of Him

Trump’s State-by-State Approval Ratings Should Scare the MAGA Out of Him
By Ed Kilgore
A dream scenario for Democrats in 2020. Photo: 270towin.com
There has been a lot of discussion in political circles about Donald Trump’s job-approval ratings, what they portend, and Trump’s Electoral College strategy for 2020, which doesn’t necessarily require a popular-vote plurality. But in the end, of course, the conjunction of the Electoral College with Trump’s state-by-state popularity is where the deal will go down.
The online polling firm Civiqs has published a new set of state-by-state job-approval ratings for Trump as of August 11, and it shows how the president’s overall standing (a 43 percent approval rating nationally, which happens to match the current RealClearPolitics polling average) might translate into electorate votes. It’s not a pretty picture for the president, to put it mildly.
Civiqs shows the president’s net approval ratios being underwater (i.e., negative) in 10 states he carried in 2016: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin. If that were to represent how the 2020 elections turn out, Trump would have a booming 119 electoral votes. And it’s not as though he’s on a knife’s edge between victory and defeat in all these Trump 2016 states where he’s doing poorly: He’s underwater by 12 points in Pennsylvania, 11 in Michigan, and nine in Arizona, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. And there’s virtually no indication that states that narrowly went for Clinton in 2016 are trending in Trump’s direction: His approval ratios are minus 18 in Colorado, minus 15 in Minnesota, minus 12 in Nevada, and minus 27 in New Hampshire. These are, by the way, polls of registered voters, not just “adults,” so they should be a relatively sound reflection of the views of the electorate.
In case you just don’t trust this particular pollster, the other publicly available survey of state-by-state presidential job approval is from Morning Consult, and its latest numbers (as of July) are pretty similar. They show Georgia and Texas as positive for Trump, and North Carolina as very close. But all the other “battleground states” are quite the reach for the incumbent.
If you credit these polls at all, Trump’s reelection will require (1) a big late improvement in his approval ratings, which is possible but unlikely based on long-standing patterns during his polarizing presidency; (2) a campaign that succeeds in making the election turn on theoretical fears about his opponent rather than actual fears about a second Trump term, which won’t be easy either; (3) a big Republican turnout advantage, which is less likely among the larger presidential electorate than it was in 2018; or (4) some diabolical ability to thread the needle despite every contrary indicator, which superstitious Democrats fear for obvious reasons.
Get unlimited access to Intelligencer and everything else New York.
LEARN MORE »
If the fourth scenario — a win against all the evidence — is Trump’s best hope for reelection, he’s the one who needs to experience some fear and trembling heading toward 2020. If anything, there’s evidence that he is likely to undershoot rather than overshoot his approval ratings as the sitting president of a country whose direction lacks any kind of public confidence. Beyond that, even those who succeed by selling their souls to the devil don’t have the collateral to pull that off twice.

I don't know about you but I will never, ever underestimate the republican's ability to lie, cheat and steal an election. I will not underestimate russia's influence on the election either.

The 2020 election is over a year away.

Things can change very quickly. No one knows what will be happening a year from now.

What people need to do is vote. Get your friends to vote. Help people vote. Help people register to vote. Hold a voting party. Give people a ride to their voting place.

Get your friends to do the same thing.

The 2020 election is a very important election.

The portents of doom are aligning against Donald Trump as his chaotic outbursts and twitterings are not being well received even by GOP voters.

Voters are now seeing that Trump is an agent of disunity, discord, and chaos not an agent of change.

Donald Trump has no successes to report as his tax cuts enriched Donald Trump's favorite charity, Donald Trump and its associates, the hugely wealthy friends of Donald Trump.

Polls show "the president’s net approval ratios being underwater (i.e., negative) in 10 states he carried in 2016: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin."

Trump’s State-by-State Approval Ratings Should Scare the MAGA Out of Him

Trump’s State-by-State Approval Ratings Should Scare the MAGA Out of Him
By Ed Kilgore
A dream scenario for Democrats in 2020. Photo: 270towin.com
There has been a lot of discussion in political circles about Donald Trump’s job-approval ratings, what they portend, and Trump’s Electoral College strategy for 2020, which doesn’t necessarily require a popular-vote plurality. But in the end, of course, the conjunction of the Electoral College with Trump’s state-by-state popularity is where the deal will go down.
The online polling firm Civiqs has published a new set of state-by-state job-approval ratings for Trump as of August 11, and it shows how the president’s overall standing (a 43 percent approval rating nationally, which happens to match the current RealClearPolitics polling average) might translate into electorate votes. It’s not a pretty picture for the president, to put it mildly.
Civiqs shows the president’s net approval ratios being underwater (i.e., negative) in 10 states he carried in 2016: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin. If that were to represent how the 2020 elections turn out, Trump would have a booming 119 electoral votes. And it’s not as though he’s on a knife’s edge between victory and defeat in all these Trump 2016 states where he’s doing poorly: He’s underwater by 12 points in Pennsylvania, 11 in Michigan, and nine in Arizona, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. And there’s virtually no indication that states that narrowly went for Clinton in 2016 are trending in Trump’s direction: His approval ratios are minus 18 in Colorado, minus 15 in Minnesota, minus 12 in Nevada, and minus 27 in New Hampshire. These are, by the way, polls of registered voters, not just “adults,” so they should be a relatively sound reflection of the views of the electorate.
In case you just don’t trust this particular pollster, the other publicly available survey of state-by-state presidential job approval is from Morning Consult, and its latest numbers (as of July) are pretty similar. They show Georgia and Texas as positive for Trump, and North Carolina as very close. But all the other “battleground states” are quite the reach for the incumbent.
If you credit these polls at all, Trump’s reelection will require (1) a big late improvement in his approval ratings, which is possible but unlikely based on long-standing patterns during his polarizing presidency; (2) a campaign that succeeds in making the election turn on theoretical fears about his opponent rather than actual fears about a second Trump term, which won’t be easy either; (3) a big Republican turnout advantage, which is less likely among the larger presidential electorate than it was in 2018; or (4) some diabolical ability to thread the needle despite every contrary indicator, which superstitious Democrats fear for obvious reasons.
Get unlimited access to Intelligencer and everything else New York.
LEARN MORE »
If the fourth scenario — a win against all the evidence — is Trump’s best hope for reelection, he’s the one who needs to experience some fear and trembling heading toward 2020. If anything, there’s evidence that he is likely to undershoot rather than overshoot his approval ratings as the sitting president of a country whose direction lacks any kind of public confidence. Beyond that, even those who succeed by selling their souls to the devil don’t have the collateral to pull that off twice.

I don't know about you but I will never, ever underestimate the republican's ability to lie, cheat and steal an election. I will not underestimate russia's influence on the election either.

The 2020 election is over a year away.

Things can change very quickly. No one knows what will be happening a year from now.

What people need to do is vote. Get your friends to vote. Help people vote. Help people register to vote. Hold a voting party. Give people a ride to their voting place.

Get your friends to do the same thing.

The 2020 election is a very important election.

Your rhetoric is reminiscent of a giant sinkhole on the face of the intellectual human race. Holy jumped-up Jesus palomino! Every election season hears the the very same sky is falling rendition of: this is the most important election ever!

If you would make the effort to wipe the extremely thick layer of bullshit out of your eyes you would see that China is far more of an election threat than Russia ever was or ever will be.

Think about what you're saying for a minute despite all the evidence of malfeasance and corruption from the Democratic party as well. You're saying that the Democrats never lose an election fairly!

Just curious does that also apply to the Democratic primary?

Now sit down and have a Duff beer and then a Homer head slap! You utter and complete ultra-dunce!

Jo

JustOffal is looking up from the bottom of the Trump sinkhole.

 

[candycorn]

The portents of doom are aligning against Donald Trump as his chaotic outbursts and twitterings are not being well received even by GOP voters.

Voters are now seeing that Trump is an agent of disunity, discord, and chaos not an agent of change.

Donald Trump has no successes to report as his tax cuts enriched Donald Trump's favorite charity, Donald Trump and its associates, the hugely wealthy friends of Donald Trump.

Polls show "the president’s net approval ratios being underwater (i.e., negative) in 10 states he carried in 2016: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin."

Trump’s State-by-State Approval Ratings Should Scare the MAGA Out of Him

Trump’s State-by-State Approval Ratings Should Scare the MAGA Out of Him
By Ed Kilgore
A dream scenario for Democrats in 2020. Photo: 270towin.com
There has been a lot of discussion in political circles about Donald Trump’s job-approval ratings, what they portend, and Trump’s Electoral College strategy for 2020, which doesn’t necessarily require a popular-vote plurality. But in the end, of course, the conjunction of the Electoral College with Trump’s state-by-state popularity is where the deal will go down.
The online polling firm Civiqs has published a new set of state-by-state job-approval ratings for Trump as of August 11, and it shows how the president’s overall standing (a 43 percent approval rating nationally, which happens to match the current RealClearPolitics polling average) might translate into electorate votes. It’s not a pretty picture for the president, to put it mildly.
Civiqs shows the president’s net approval ratios being underwater (i.e., negative) in 10 states he carried in 2016: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin. If that were to represent how the 2020 elections turn out, Trump would have a booming 119 electoral votes. And it’s not as though he’s on a knife’s edge between victory and defeat in all these Trump 2016 states where he’s doing poorly: He’s underwater by 12 points in Pennsylvania, 11 in Michigan, and nine in Arizona, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. And there’s virtually no indication that states that narrowly went for Clinton in 2016 are trending in Trump’s direction: His approval ratios are minus 18 in Colorado, minus 15 in Minnesota, minus 12 in Nevada, and minus 27 in New Hampshire. These are, by the way, polls of registered voters, not just “adults,” so they should be a relatively sound reflection of the views of the electorate.
In case you just don’t trust this particular pollster, the other publicly available survey of state-by-state presidential job approval is from Morning Consult, and its latest numbers (as of July) are pretty similar. They show Georgia and Texas as positive for Trump, and North Carolina as very close. But all the other “battleground states” are quite the reach for the incumbent.
If you credit these polls at all, Trump’s reelection will require (1) a big late improvement in his approval ratings, which is possible but unlikely based on long-standing patterns during his polarizing presidency; (2) a campaign that succeeds in making the election turn on theoretical fears about his opponent rather than actual fears about a second Trump term, which won’t be easy either; (3) a big Republican turnout advantage, which is less likely among the larger presidential electorate than it was in 2018; or (4) some diabolical ability to thread the needle despite every contrary indicator, which superstitious Democrats fear for obvious reasons.
Get unlimited access to Intelligencer and everything else New York.
LEARN MORE »
If the fourth scenario — a win against all the evidence — is Trump’s best hope for reelection, he’s the one who needs to experience some fear and trembling heading toward 2020. If anything, there’s evidence that he is likely to undershoot rather than overshoot his approval ratings as the sitting president of a country whose direction lacks any kind of public confidence. Beyond that, even those who succeed by selling their souls to the devil don’t have the collateral to pull that off twice.

State by state analysis is the only thing that matters in Presidential Politics as far as analytics go since the presidential election is 50 individual elections. So that is good news for the Democrats.

I wouldn’t celebrate just yet though.

Approval/disapproval can be greatly affected by how much you approve/disapprove of the other candidate in our binary system.

 

[Denizen]

The portents of doom are aligning against Donald Trump as his chaotic outbursts and twitterings are not being well received even by GOP voters.

Voters are now seeing that Trump is an agent of disunity, discord, and chaos not an agent of change.

Donald Trump has no successes to report as his tax cuts enriched Donald Trump's favorite charity, Donald Trump and its associates, the hugely wealthy friends of Donald Trump.

Polls show "the president’s net approval ratios being underwater (i.e., negative) in 10 states he carried in 2016: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin."

Trump’s State-by-State Approval Ratings Should Scare the MAGA Out of Him

Trump’s State-by-State Approval Ratings Should Scare the MAGA Out of Him
By Ed Kilgore
A dream scenario for Democrats in 2020. Photo: 270towin.com
There has been a lot of discussion in political circles about Donald Trump’s job-approval ratings, what they portend, and Trump’s Electoral College strategy for 2020, which doesn’t necessarily require a popular-vote plurality. But in the end, of course, the conjunction of the Electoral College with Trump’s state-by-state popularity is where the deal will go down.
The online polling firm Civiqs has published a new set of state-by-state job-approval ratings for Trump as of August 11, and it shows how the president’s overall standing (a 43 percent approval rating nationally, which happens to match the current RealClearPolitics polling average) might translate into electorate votes. It’s not a pretty picture for the president, to put it mildly.
Civiqs shows the president’s net approval ratios being underwater (i.e., negative) in 10 states he carried in 2016: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin. If that were to represent how the 2020 elections turn out, Trump would have a booming 119 electoral votes. And it’s not as though he’s on a knife’s edge between victory and defeat in all these Trump 2016 states where he’s doing poorly: He’s underwater by 12 points in Pennsylvania, 11 in Michigan, and nine in Arizona, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. And there’s virtually no indication that states that narrowly went for Clinton in 2016 are trending in Trump’s direction: His approval ratios are minus 18 in Colorado, minus 15 in Minnesota, minus 12 in Nevada, and minus 27 in New Hampshire. These are, by the way, polls of registered voters, not just “adults,” so they should be a relatively sound reflection of the views of the electorate.
In case you just don’t trust this particular pollster, the other publicly available survey of state-by-state presidential job approval is from Morning Consult, and its latest numbers (as of July) are pretty similar. They show Georgia and Texas as positive for Trump, and North Carolina as very close. But all the other “battleground states” are quite the reach for the incumbent.
If you credit these polls at all, Trump’s reelection will require (1) a big late improvement in his approval ratings, which is possible but unlikely based on long-standing patterns during his polarizing presidency; (2) a campaign that succeeds in making the election turn on theoretical fears about his opponent rather than actual fears about a second Trump term, which won’t be easy either; (3) a big Republican turnout advantage, which is less likely among the larger presidential electorate than it was in 2018; or (4) some diabolical ability to thread the needle despite every contrary indicator, which superstitious Democrats fear for obvious reasons.
Get unlimited access to Intelligencer and everything else New York.
LEARN MORE »
If the fourth scenario — a win against all the evidence — is Trump’s best hope for reelection, he’s the one who needs to experience some fear and trembling heading toward 2020. If anything, there’s evidence that he is likely to undershoot rather than overshoot his approval ratings as the sitting president of a country whose direction lacks any kind of public confidence. Beyond that, even those who succeed by selling their souls to the devil don’t have the collateral to pull that off twice.

State by state analysis is the only thing that matters in Presidential Politics as far as analytics go since the presidential election is 50 individual elections. So that is good news for the Democrats.

I wouldn’t celebrate just yet though.

Approval/disapproval can be greatly affected by how much you approve/disapprove of the other candidate in our binary system.

The world economy is turning down.

Wall street could be a bloodbath if there is even a small exodus.

 

[candycorn]

The portents of doom are aligning against Donald Trump as his chaotic outbursts and twitterings are not being well received even by GOP voters.

Voters are now seeing that Trump is an agent of disunity, discord, and chaos not an agent of change.

Donald Trump has no successes to report as his tax cuts enriched Donald Trump's favorite charity, Donald Trump and its associates, the hugely wealthy friends of Donald Trump.

Polls show "the president’s net approval ratios being underwater (i.e., negative) in 10 states he carried in 2016: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin."

Trump’s State-by-State Approval Ratings Should Scare the MAGA Out of Him

Trump’s State-by-State Approval Ratings Should Scare the MAGA Out of Him
By Ed Kilgore
A dream scenario for Democrats in 2020. Photo: 270towin.com
There has been a lot of discussion in political circles about Donald Trump’s job-approval ratings, what they portend, and Trump’s Electoral College strategy for 2020, which doesn’t necessarily require a popular-vote plurality. But in the end, of course, the conjunction of the Electoral College with Trump’s state-by-state popularity is where the deal will go down.
The online polling firm Civiqs has published a new set of state-by-state job-approval ratings for Trump as of August 11, and it shows how the president’s overall standing (a 43 percent approval rating nationally, which happens to match the current RealClearPolitics polling average) might translate into electorate votes. It’s not a pretty picture for the president, to put it mildly.
Civiqs shows the president’s net approval ratios being underwater (i.e., negative) in 10 states he carried in 2016: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin. If that were to represent how the 2020 elections turn out, Trump would have a booming 119 electoral votes. And it’s not as though he’s on a knife’s edge between victory and defeat in all these Trump 2016 states where he’s doing poorly: He’s underwater by 12 points in Pennsylvania, 11 in Michigan, and nine in Arizona, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. And there’s virtually no indication that states that narrowly went for Clinton in 2016 are trending in Trump’s direction: His approval ratios are minus 18 in Colorado, minus 15 in Minnesota, minus 12 in Nevada, and minus 27 in New Hampshire. These are, by the way, polls of registered voters, not just “adults,” so they should be a relatively sound reflection of the views of the electorate.
In case you just don’t trust this particular pollster, the other publicly available survey of state-by-state presidential job approval is from Morning Consult, and its latest numbers (as of July) are pretty similar. They show Georgia and Texas as positive for Trump, and North Carolina as very close. But all the other “battleground states” are quite the reach for the incumbent.
If you credit these polls at all, Trump’s reelection will require (1) a big late improvement in his approval ratings, which is possible but unlikely based on long-standing patterns during his polarizing presidency; (2) a campaign that succeeds in making the election turn on theoretical fears about his opponent rather than actual fears about a second Trump term, which won’t be easy either; (3) a big Republican turnout advantage, which is less likely among the larger presidential electorate than it was in 2018; or (4) some diabolical ability to thread the needle despite every contrary indicator, which superstitious Democrats fear for obvious reasons.
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If the fourth scenario — a win against all the evidence — is Trump’s best hope for reelection, he’s the one who needs to experience some fear and trembling heading toward 2020. If anything, there’s evidence that he is likely to undershoot rather than overshoot his approval ratings as the sitting president of a country whose direction lacks any kind of public confidence. Beyond that, even those who succeed by selling their souls to the devil don’t have the collateral to pull that off twice.

State by state analysis is the only thing that matters in Presidential Politics as far as analytics go since the presidential election is 50 individual elections. So that is good news for the Democrats.

I wouldn’t celebrate just yet though.

Approval/disapproval can be greatly affected by how much you approve/disapprove of the other candidate in our binary system.

The world economy is turning down.

Wall street could be a bloodbath if there is even a small exodus.

Not important.

 

[lennypartiv]

We heard this same crap back in 2016.

 

[Daryl Hunt]

We heard this same crap back in 2016.

the only sure thing for 2020 is that there are no sure things for 2020. That means, you might want to clean up your candidate a bit more because as it stands, he's not a sure thing. Think about it. And the Dems need to do the same thing.

 

[rjs330]

This election will be decided by one of two things. Who the Democrats put up against Trump. Trump is not likable and enough people out there do not support his behaviors. But if the Democrats put up one of the far left nuts they have now, Trump will win. America is not ready for that far left crap. I think the majority of people still like what he's done for the country overall. They just don't approve of his stupid behavior. So if the Dems put up a REAL centrist I think the Dems could win.

The other thing is the economy. If the economy tanks, Trump is gone.

You think the majority likes what he's been doing? Do parents think Trump is a good role model? Do most citizens see him as competent, informed and honest? I can't imagine anyone voting for Trump a second time. He's a man-child, immature and given to temper tantrums.

You prove my point. That precisely what I said. People don't like his behavior. They do like his policies. But the far left craziness is too far for most Americans. They will put up with Trump's poor behavior if their other choices are what the Dems have put forward.

 

[Shrimpbox]

Well this line here is all I need to totally discount this article.

Beyond that, even those who succeed by selling their souls to the devil don’t have the collateral to pull that off twice.

 

[lennypartiv]

The election is a long way off. That and voter ID laws will give Trump the 2020 election.