Trump's 4% GDP growth promise update

[Harpy Eagle]

No according to YOU he is lying when he says "believe me" because if it was hyperbola then, as YOU said, it "is not expected to be believed."

Just because he says "believe me" does not mean that it is not hyperbole.

Believe me, IT IS NOT!

Sure it is. Do you think any reasonable person would think that a real estate guy from NYC knows more about ISIS, than the Generals who have been fighting them for years?


ON the other hand, you are serious about calling him out on "lying" about it.


That is why he is not lying, and you are. IN this example.

you are correct, in his example he is not lying. When someone says something they believe to be true, it is not a lie. Trump believes he knows more than the generals.

What do you base your claim on?

On Trump's actions and words over the last 3 years.

In that time he has told us at least 23 times that he knows more than anyone else on a variety of topics.

He also tends to fire anyone that disagrees with him, signifying that he thinks he knows more than they do.

 

[Correll]

Just because he says "believe me" does not mean that it is not hyperbole.

Believe me, IT IS NOT!

Sure it is. Do you think any reasonable person would think that a real estate guy from NYC knows more about ISIS, than the Generals who have been fighting them for years?


ON the other hand, you are serious about calling him out on "lying" about it.


That is why he is not lying, and you are. IN this example.

you are correct, in his example he is not lying. When someone says something they believe to be true, it is not a lie. Trump believes he knows more than the generals.

What do you base your claim on?

On Trump's actions and words over the last 3 years.

In that time he has told us at least 23 times that he knows more than anyone else on a variety of topics.

He also tends to fire anyone that disagrees with him, signifying that he thinks he knows more than they do.

Sounds like confirmation bias to me.


Your first supporting example is that he has stated a lot of times that he knows more than anyone else on a variety of topics.


That is more likely an argument that he IS using hyperbole, then it is an argument that he is NOT.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Believe me, IT IS NOT!

Sure it is. Do you think any reasonable person would think that a real estate guy from NYC knows more about ISIS, than the Generals who have been fighting them for years?


ON the other hand, you are serious about calling him out on "lying" about it.


That is why he is not lying, and you are. IN this example.

you are correct, in his example he is not lying. When someone says something they believe to be true, it is not a lie. Trump believes he knows more than the generals.

What do you base your claim on?

On Trump's actions and words over the last 3 years.

In that time he has told us at least 23 times that he knows more than anyone else on a variety of topics.

He also tends to fire anyone that disagrees with him, signifying that he thinks he knows more than they do.

Sounds like confirmation bias to me.


Your first supporting example is that he has stated a lot of times that he knows more than anyone else on a variety of topics.


That is more likely an argument that he IS using hyperbole, then it is an argument that he is NOT.

What about this statement is not meant to be believed....what about it makes it so over the top that nobody would think he was serious?

"I understand social media. I understand the power of Twitter. I understand the power of Facebook maybe better than almost anybody, based on my results, right?

or this one...

look, as a builder, nobody in the history of this country has ever known so much about infrastructure as Donald Trump."

What is the key sign these are hyperbole in your opinion?

 

[Correll]

Sure it is. Do you think any reasonable person would think that a real estate guy from NYC knows more about ISIS, than the Generals who have been fighting them for years?


ON the other hand, you are serious about calling him out on "lying" about it.


That is why he is not lying, and you are. IN this example.

you are correct, in his example he is not lying. When someone says something they believe to be true, it is not a lie. Trump believes he knows more than the generals.

What do you base your claim on?

On Trump's actions and words over the last 3 years.

In that time he has told us at least 23 times that he knows more than anyone else on a variety of topics.

He also tends to fire anyone that disagrees with him, signifying that he thinks he knows more than they do.

Sounds like confirmation bias to me.


Your first supporting example is that he has stated a lot of times that he knows more than anyone else on a variety of topics.


That is more likely an argument that he IS using hyperbole, then it is an argument that he is NOT.

What about this statement is not meant to be believed....what about it makes it so over the top that nobody would think he was serious?

"I understand social media. I understand the power of Twitter. I understand the power of Facebook maybe better than almost anybody, based on my results, right?

or this one...

look, as a builder, nobody in the history of this country has ever known so much about infrastructure as Donald Trump."

What is the key sign these are hyperbole in your opinion?

1. The first one, is probably a seriously claim, because it is somewhat credible. He did after all, pull out the largest upset in Presidential history.


2. The second is quite a stretch. His background in real estate and construction, is not that closely related to administrating nationwide infrastructure. Sounds like hyperbole to me.



key sign? Credibility. If a claim is somewhat credible, it can be considered serious, if it is not credible, it could be considered hyperbole.

 

[edthecynic]

So, what you are saying is that whenever he says "believe me" we should do just the opposite?

Your pretense of having no ability of discernment is noted and dismissed.
Stop playing silly.

Your pretense of having no ability to discern a lie is noted and dismissed.
Stop playing silly.

I'm making no such claim. I am claiming the exact opposite, in fact.

But you are lying.

But, I am not.

Of course you are, and YOU know it!

 

[Correll]

Your pretense of having no ability of discernment is noted and dismissed.
Stop playing silly.

Your pretense of having no ability to discern a lie is noted and dismissed.
Stop playing silly.

I'm making no such claim. I am claiming the exact opposite, in fact.

But you are lying.

But, I am not.

Of course you are, and YOU know it!

Nope.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Your pretense of having no ability to discern a lie is noted and dismissed.
Stop playing silly.

I'm making no such claim. I am claiming the exact opposite, in fact.

But you are lying.

But, I am not.

Of course you are, and YOU know it!

Nope.

I agree, you are not lying. You really believe the things you are saying just like Trump believes the things he says.

 

[otto105]

Donald Trump promised 4.0% GDP growth a year.

Updated - Trump-O-Meter: Grow the economy by 4 percent a year

In 2018, he fell short with 3.2% growth.

It's still early in 2019, so all we have is estimates of first quarter growth. In order for the economy to stay on track to 4% growth, Q1 must be at least /approximately 4%.


So far things don't look good at all. Economist Diane Swonk said yesterday that Q1 growth could be 1.5%:

GDP growth for the first quarter could slip below 1-1/2% if shutdown endures through the end of the week.

Diane Swonk on Twitter

It looks like Trump wildly exaggerated the results he could achieve.

GDP growth in 2018 was 2.9% not 3.2%

 

[georgephillip]

Oops: Trump’s “Historic” Economic Growth Downgraded To “Meh”

"According to revised data from Trump’s own Commerce Department, released on Friday, the haters were right and U.S. economic growth did not hit the administration’s 2018 goal of 3% growth or higher.

"While the White House had initially crowed about reaching its target when it thought GDP for the fourth quarter had risen to 3.1%, on Friday that was revised to 2.5%, meaning the economy grew only 2.9% last year. Awkward!

"The Commerce Department also said that the economy grew more slowly than previously thought for the second quarter of 2018, at an annual rate of 3.5% rather than 4.2%, largely due to lower exports and weaker investment in structures than expected...."

"As the Wall Street Journal notes, the fourth quarter was a rocky time for consumers thanks to, among other things, worry about trade tensions (caused by Trump) and the start of a government shutdown (caused by Trump), in addition to signs of global economic slowdown.
'The revised numbers also hurt the administration’s claims that that a $1.5 trillion tax cut would pay for itself in economic growth.'"

Three years ago, candidate Trump correctly (imho) labeled the Obama Economy as a bubble economy; most of Obama's trends have continued under Trump.

 

[edthecynic]

I'm making no such claim. I am claiming the exact opposite, in fact.

But you are lying.

But, I am not.

Of course you are, and YOU know it!

Nope.

I agree, you are not lying. You really believe the things you are saying just like Trump believes the things he says.

Trump does not believe a single thing he says. In his book he called hyperbola a strategy, therefore he knows he's lying when he lies.

 

[Correll]

I'm making no such claim. I am claiming the exact opposite, in fact.

But you are lying.

But, I am not.

Of course you are, and YOU know it!

Nope.

I agree, you are not lying. You really believe the things you are saying just like Trump believes the things he says.

I am not a big user of hyperbole. The President is.


NOt really hard to understand.


But admitting that, takes away a reason, no, one way for you to act superior.

 

[Correll]

But you are lying.

But, I am not.

Of course you are, and YOU know it!

Nope.

I agree, you are not lying. You really believe the things you are saying just like Trump believes the things he says.

Trump does not believe a single thing he says. In his book he called hyperbola a strategy, therefore he knows he's lying when he lies.

If he used the word "hyperbole" then he is not lying, because he does not expect to be taken literally.


It is completely reasonable for people to dislike Trump's style. It is another for people to pretend to not understand something so simple.


hyperbole - Google Search


hy·per·bo·le
/hīˈpərbəlē/
Learn to pronounce
noun

1. exaggerated statements or claims not meant to be taken literally.
   "he vowed revenge with oaths and hyperboles"
   synonyms: exaggeration, overstatement, magnification, amplification, embroidery, embellishment, overplaying, excess, overkill

 

[Mac1958]

The Fed is now addressing weakness with (most likely) a schedule of rate cuts. Anyone paying attention to Reality World facts knows this.

The bragging about the booming economy is just more talk radio noise. The economy is pretty good (not "booming", as is the claim), and with the right care and some better news from overseas this could get back on track. Clearly China is waiting for the 2020 election results because they don't want to work with Trump and are hoping for more stability at the top, so that will continue to hinder growth.
.

 

[sealybobo]

Donald Trump promised 4.0% GDP growth a year.

Updated - Trump-O-Meter: Grow the economy by 4 percent a year

In 2018, he fell short with 3.2% growth.

It's still early in 2019, so all we have is estimates of first quarter growth. In order for the economy to stay on track to 4% growth, Q1 must be at least /approximately 4%.


So far things don't look good at all. Economist Diane Swonk said yesterday that Q1 growth could be 1.5%:

GDP growth for the first quarter could slip below 1-1/2% if shutdown endures through the end of the week.

Diane Swonk on Twitter

It looks like Trump wildly exaggerated the results he could achieve.

He has 2.1% growth and thats only because government spending increased 5%. Do republicans mind? They should. Not only did he fall way short, the only reason he had 2.1 is because of government spending, which they hate, supposedly

 

[sealybobo]

4% is a big number for such a large economy. The fact he hit 3% is an achievement.

It's much easier to achieve if you cut down your expenses, which neither party seems willing to do.

Then don’t promise 4! He said he’d do better. 4 would be better. If he doesn’t then he’s no better

 

[sealybobo]

The Fed is now addressing weakness with (most likely) a schedule of rate cuts. Anyone paying attention to Reality World facts knows this.

The bragging about the booming economy is just more talk radio noise. The economy is pretty good (not "booming", as is the claim), and with the right care and some better news from overseas this could get back on track. Clearly China is waiting for the 2020 election results because they don't want to work with Trump and are hoping for more stability at the top, so that will continue to hinder growth.
.

So trump is a hinderance

 

[Mac1958]

Trump: We're Going To See Economic Growth Of 4, 5 And Maybe 6 Percent

 

[Correll]

The Fed is now addressing weakness with (most likely) a schedule of rate cuts. Anyone paying attention to Reality World facts knows this.

The bragging about the booming economy is just more talk radio noise. The economy is pretty good (not "booming", as is the claim), and with the right care and some better news from overseas this could get back on track. Clearly China is waiting for the 2020 election results because they don't want to work with Trump and are hoping for more stability at the top, so that will continue to hinder growth.
.

"Stability" is one way to put it. A more accurate way would be, to have a return to the status quo, where they get to have what they want, at our expense, without anyone in American government looking out for American interests.

 

[Correll]

The Fed is now addressing weakness with (most likely) a schedule of rate cuts. Anyone paying attention to Reality World facts knows this.

The bragging about the booming economy is just more talk radio noise. The economy is pretty good (not "booming", as is the claim), and with the right care and some better news from overseas this could get back on track. Clearly China is waiting for the 2020 election results because they don't want to work with Trump and are hoping for more stability at the top, so that will continue to hinder growth.
.

So trump is a hinderance

China is waiting to see if America is willing to go back to just being their *****.


How is Trump the problem?

 

[sealybobo]

Trump: We're Going To See Economic Growth Of 4, 5 And Maybe 6 Percent

He should have said he’s going to give rich people big tax breaks which will lead to a slightly better economy for about a year then my trade war will slow everything down