Trump Poll Bounce Likely Rigged(?)--Among Four September Choices, Clinton Not Campaigning!

[mascale]

Noted elsewhere, Los Angeles Times/USC tracking panel did find an orderly bounce of arousal of Trump supporters in the last few days, but no Landslide Momentum. The last 24 hours of the bounce is reported at 1% only, way down from 6 points starting in the last three or four days. The Clinton supporters are similarly tracked as less aroused, in the same time frame. Famously, the Clinton Campaign was not in high gear. It is not even clear that Secretary Clinton spends a lot of time staring at a hand-held device--some new apparent presidential norm(?)!

So back to basics. Over the summer, 31% of people polled were not for Trump or Clinton. There are two other choices. It is not being shown that Trump may get 37% of the national vote, Clinton 35% of it. The other two are not likely to split 28% of the vote--News analysts aside. Analysts find the whole thing, "Momentum," when mostly it likely shows an interim bounce. At best. Early voting doesn't start until October. The Trump Campaign has peaked too soon.

Then go into the percentages of the previous paragraph. Trump rarely gets 37% of the total vote in any poll. There is a kind of famous, "Wall" the Campaign cannot breach. It often gets below. In California it bounced all the way up to 32% from 28% of the preferences polled.

31% of voters do not back Clinton or Trump. So what happens when they are really pressed to make a choice? 39% of just those polled support Clinton. Only 24% support Trump.

Party Identification Shift May Hobble Trump | RealClearPolitics

No seems to see much momentum building.

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(William Tell Child Endangerment Chapter of NRA know why AK-47 really good for momentum--Getting fruity things out of young brave's hair!)

 

[SassyIrishLass]

Anyone paying attention sees the "bounce" happened right after Hildabeast called millions of Americans deplorable. What a stupid bitch

 

[BluesLegend]

Anyone paying attention sees the "bounce" happened right after Hildabeast called millions of Americans deplorable. What a stupid bitch

Hillary told millions of voters who were on the fence to vote for Trump.

 

[Katzndogz]

Trump is +6 nationwide now.

 

[SassyIrishLass]

Trump is +6 nationwide now.

That's quite a bounce from being 4 down

 

[mascale]

The six points is only among a panel of respondents, not a poll of the electorate. Noted in the OP, elsewhere it is noted that even LA Times/USC agrees that its results overstate the National Polls--which are not panels--by about 5% in nearly all of them. So there is a basis for showing that the panel really says a lot about the actual Deplorables, the Trump supporters. Clinton's supporters were not as enthused in the last few days. Other polls asking if anyone knew of the "pneumonia," now not so contagious: They did, and were not too thrilled to hear about it.

So in a panel, essentially, of Trump Supporters--Clinton didn't do as well as usual. She is thought to be likely to win in November--by the panel--by 60% of it, 40% of it only--thinking that outcome likely for Trump.

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(Soaring Eagle way more capable, targeting prairie mouse for lunch: Than is Great herd of noble buffalo(?)!)

 

[Sun Devil 92]

The six points is only among a panel of respondents, not a poll of the electorate. Noted in the OP, elsewhere it is noted that even LA Times/USC agrees that its results overstate the National Polls--which are not panels--by about 5% in nearly all of them. So there is a basis for showing that the panel really says a lot about the actual Deplorables, the Trump supporters. Clinton's supporters were not as enthused in the last few days. Other polls asking if anyone knew of the "pneumonia," now not so contagious: They did, and were not too thrilled to hear about it.

So in a panel, essentially, of Trump Supporters--Clinton didn't do as well as usual. She is thought to be likely to win in November--by the panel--by 60% of it, 40% of it only--thinking that outcome likely for Trump.

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(Soaring Eagle way more capable, targeting prairie mouse for lunch: Than is Great herd of noble buffalo(?)!)

RealClear does an average of all polls.

They use those to predict states.

4 Weeks ago....Hillary had over 300...now she has 200 (with toss ups).

She still wins when toss ups are allocated...but not by much.

 

[mascale]

The post-Convention Clinton bounce lingered. The post-pneumonia dip was also met with an uptick of Trump support, mostly by Trump supporters. Possibly Clinton supporters were wondering if she would have to drop out. Likely the Deplorables were hoping she would die. "Pneumonia" is a loaded term, for something more severe than the common cold. Clinton is not well-liked by Trump supporters. A lot of the fanatics may have thought it was omen.

The important votes actually start coming in October, when DNC is widely reported ready to start the fall campaign. Maybe there will be a photo of Trump actually staring into a hand-held device, in the meantime. Like most people over 20, he is at least overweight, and likely adult about it! Half of them are even obese!

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!
(Better idea maybe put Trump in car on a mountain logging road, and have him behave like any adult: Start texting!)

 

[SuperDemocrat]

Trump has done nothing and he is still climbing. Hillary says everything and she is still falling.