Trump has no plan: China will win the trade war and wean off American technology in 7 years

I also wonder if there might be a point at which China is willing to drop the hammer and get punitive by dumping a trillion or so in Treasuries.

I think China is viewing that as a break-the-glass, last resort move since it's a lose-lose (lose-lose is OUR thing not theirs). ;)
Yeah, no doubt it would not be good for them from a purely financial standpoint, but (theoretically) it might be worth the pain.

I don't think they really want to do that, but yeah, I can see it as a "break the glass" tactic.
.

Yes but IMHO they can achieve the desired effect by simply cutting back on their purchases of U.S. Debt, which they've already started to do, and that strategy doesn't carry as much risk that Washington will push the Warhawk Panic Button.

It sends the message without SHOUTING.
Actually, another option would be a "leak" that they were "considering" dumping bonds.

Just doing that would send shockwaves and send a message.

Who knows. This is an asymmetrical situation - A President has to worry about politics and they don't.
.
 
I also wonder if there might be a point at which China is willing to drop the hammer and get punitive by dumping a trillion or so in Treasuries.

I think China is viewing that as a break-the-glass, last resort move since it's a lose-lose (lose-lose is OUR thing not theirs). ;)
Yeah, no doubt it would not be good for them from a purely financial standpoint, but (theoretically) it might be worth the pain.

I don't think they really want to do that, but yeah, I can see it as a "break the glass" tactic.
.

Yes but IMHO they can achieve the desired effect by simply cutting back on their purchases of U.S. Debt, which they've already started to do, and that strategy doesn't carry as much risk that Washington will push the Warhawk Panic Button.

It sends the message without SHOUTING.
Yeah, and SHOUTING isn't really their style.

There's a story that Russia contacted China during the Meltdown and suggested that they get together and dump Treasuries. I don't know if that's true (I think it came from Hank Paulson), but just the thought of that is a little scary.
.
Yeah, that story is true and it did come from Hank Paulson (well it's 'true' if you believe Paulson which I do since he didn't really have any reason to lie about it since it was after the fact) but it wasn't Treasuries the Russians proposed dumping it was bonds issued by Fannie & Freddie.

"Here I'm not going to name the senior person, but I was meeting with someone… This person told me that the Chinese had received a message from the Russians which was, 'Hey let's join together and sell Fannie and Freddie securities on the market.' The Chinese weren't going to do that but again, it just, it just drove home to me how vulnerable I felt until we had put Fannie and Freddie into conservator-ship" -- Henry Paulson
 
I also wonder if there might be a point at which China is willing to drop the hammer and get punitive by dumping a trillion or so in Treasuries.

I think China is viewing that as a break-the-glass, last resort move since it's a lose-lose (lose-lose is OUR thing not theirs). ;)
Yeah, no doubt it would not be good for them from a purely financial standpoint, but (theoretically) it might be worth the pain.

I don't think they really want to do that, but yeah, I can see it as a "break the glass" tactic.
.

Yes but IMHO they can achieve the desired effect by simply cutting back on their purchases of U.S. Debt, which they've already started to do, and that strategy doesn't carry as much risk that Washington will push the Warhawk Panic Button.

It sends the message without SHOUTING.
Yeah, and SHOUTING isn't really their style.

There's a story that Russia contacted China during the Meltdown and suggested that they get together and dump Treasuries. I don't know if that's true (I think it came from Hank Paulson), but just the thought of that is a little scary.
.
Yeah, that story is true and it did come from Hank Paulson (well it's 'true' if you believe Paulson which I do since he didn't really have any reason to lie about it since it was after the fact) but it wasn't Treasuries the Russians proposed dumping it was bonds issued by Fannie & Freddie.

"Here I'm not going to name the senior person, but I was meeting with someone… This person told me that the Chinese had received a message from the Russians which was, 'Hey let's join together and sell Fannie and Freddie securities on the market.' The Chinese weren't going to do that but again, it just, it just drove home to me how vulnerable I felt until we had put Fannie and Freddie into conservator-ship" -- Henry Paulson
Yikes, yeah, the fact that they even discussed it ain't good.
.
 
I also wonder if there might be a point at which China is willing to drop the hammer and get punitive by dumping a trillion or so in Treasuries.

I think China is viewing that as a break-the-glass, last resort move since it's a lose-lose (lose-lose is OUR thing not theirs). ;)
Yeah, no doubt it would not be good for them from a purely financial standpoint, but (theoretically) it might be worth the pain.

I don't think they really want to do that, but yeah, I can see it as a "break the glass" tactic.
.

Yes but IMHO they can achieve the desired effect by simply cutting back on their purchases of U.S. Debt, which they've already started to do, and that strategy doesn't carry as much risk that Washington will push the Warhawk Panic Button.

It sends the message without SHOUTING.
Actually, another option would be a "leak" that they were "considering" dumping bonds.

Just doing that would send shockwaves and send a message.

Who knows. This is an asymmetrical situation - A President has to worry about politics and they don't.
.

I wouldn't do that if I were the Chinese since the guy in the Oval Office isn't exactly the most stable dude on the planet and a shooting war isn't in China's best interests.

IMHO there's no potential upside to a bluff like that, only downside.
 
I also wonder if there might be a point at which China is willing to drop the hammer and get punitive by dumping a trillion or so in Treasuries.

I think China is viewing that as a break-the-glass, last resort move since it's a lose-lose (lose-lose is OUR thing not theirs). ;)
Yeah, no doubt it would not be good for them from a purely financial standpoint, but (theoretically) it might be worth the pain.

I don't think they really want to do that, but yeah, I can see it as a "break the glass" tactic.
.

Yes but IMHO they can achieve the desired effect by simply cutting back on their purchases of U.S. Debt, which they've already started to do, and that strategy doesn't carry as much risk that Washington will push the Warhawk Panic Button.

It sends the message without SHOUTING.
Actually, another option would be a "leak" that they were "considering" dumping bonds.

Just doing that would send shockwaves and send a message.

Who knows. This is an asymmetrical situation - A President has to worry about politics and they don't.
.

I wouldn't do that if I were the Chinese since the guy in the Oval Office isn't exactly the most stable dude on the planet and a shooting war isn't in China's best interests.

IMHO there's no potential upside to a bluff like that, only downside.
They do keep things low key.

THEY ARE INSCRUTABLE

mandarin_chinaman_oriental.jpg
 
Yeah, that story is true and it did come from Hank Paulson (well it's 'true' if you believe Paulson which I do since he didn't really have any reason to lie about it since it was after the fact) but it wasn't Treasuries the Russians proposed dumping it was bonds issued by Fannie & Freddie.

"Here I'm not going to name the senior person, but I was meeting with someone… This person told me that the Chinese had received a message from the Russians which was, 'Hey let's join together and sell Fannie and Freddie securities on the market.' The Chinese weren't going to do that but again, it just, it just drove home to me how vulnerable I felt until we had put Fannie and Freddie into conservator-ship" -- Henry Paulson

Bullshit...sell them to who? BTW, that would have been an act of war with a warrior in the WH...neither of them wanted to toy with Dubya. Paulson locked the bankers in a conference room in the WH and told they they weren't leaving until they signed notes to borrow enough to remain solvent...which they did. Then after Barry the Fairy took over, there was another meeting...a meeting the banksters dreaded because he's a communist and they figured they could well be arrested on the spot. Instead, he begged them for campaign money and they left laughing their asses off.
 
Who knows. This is an asymmetrical situation - A President has to worry about politics and they don't.
.

Yep, I think you hit on the key, I don't think the Chinese have to DO anything, they just need to wait Trump out since he's got an election next year and can't afford the risk of a waning economy if he wants to have a decent chance at getting re-elected (IMHO if it even looks like we're going into recession next fall he might as well pack his shit and start moving out of the White House).

The Chinese can tolerate the economic discomfort from these tariffs until then.
 
Who knows. This is an asymmetrical situation - A President has to worry about politics and they don't.
.

Yep, I think you hit on the key, I don't think the Chinese have to DO anything, they just need to wait Trump out since he's got an election next year and can't afford the risk of a waning economy if he wants to have a decent chance at getting re-elected (IMHO if it even looks like we're going into recession next fall he might as well pack his shit and start moving out of the White House).

The Chinese can tolerate the economic discomfort from these tariffs until then.
As long as they don't give two shits about their own people suffering, they can either wait us out or get a better deal if Trump is worried about the election.

I'd guess they're in no hurry right now.
.
 
Yeah, that story is true and it did come from Hank Paulson (well it's 'true' if you believe Paulson which I do since he didn't really have any reason to lie about it since it was after the fact) but it wasn't Treasuries the Russians proposed dumping it was bonds issued by Fannie & Freddie.

"Here I'm not going to name the senior person, but I was meeting with someone… This person told me that the Chinese had received a message from the Russians which was, 'Hey let's join together and sell Fannie and Freddie securities on the market.' The Chinese weren't going to do that but again, it just, it just drove home to me how vulnerable I felt until we had put Fannie and Freddie into conservator-ship" -- Henry Paulson

Bullshit...sell them to who?
Ummm.. the open and dark pool bond markets that operate all over the globe.

BTW, that would have been an act of war with a warrior in the WH...neither of them wanted to toy with Dubya.
Are you saying that Hank Paulson was lying? why would he lie about it after Fannie & Freddie had already gone into conservator-ship?

Paulson locked the bankers in a conference room in the WH and told they they weren't leaving until they signed notes to borrow enough to remain solvent...which they did. Then after Barry the Fairy took over, there was another meeting...a meeting the banksters dreaded because he's a communist and they figured they could well be arrested on the spot. Instead, he begged them for campaign money and they left laughing their asses off.
What does any of that have to do with the Russians contacting the Chinese about a coordinated sell off of Fannie & Freddie bonds?
 
Yeah, that story is true and it did come from Hank Paulson (well it's 'true' if you believe Paulson which I do since he didn't really have any reason to lie about it since it was after the fact) but it wasn't Treasuries the Russians proposed dumping it was bonds issued by Fannie & Freddie.

"Here I'm not going to name the senior person, but I was meeting with someone… This person told me that the Chinese had received a message from the Russians which was, 'Hey let's join together and sell Fannie and Freddie securities on the market.' The Chinese weren't going to do that but again, it just, it just drove home to me how vulnerable I felt until we had put Fannie and Freddie into conservator-ship" -- Henry Paulson

Bullshit...sell them to who?
Ummm.. the open and dark pool bond markets that operate all over the globe.

BTW, that would have been an act of war with a warrior in the WH...neither of them wanted to toy with Dubya.
Are you saying that Hank Paulson was lying? why would he lie about it after Fannie & Freddie had already gone into conservator-ship?

Paulson locked the bankers in a conference room in the WH and told they they weren't leaving until they signed notes to borrow enough to remain solvent...which they did. Then after Barry the Fairy took over, there was another meeting...a meeting the banksters dreaded because he's a communist and they figured they could well be arrested on the spot. Instead, he begged them for campaign money and they left laughing their asses off.
What does any of that have to do with the Russians contacting the Chinese about a coordinated sell off of Fannie & Freddie bonds?

No, I'm saying you're lying....no such conversation ever took place between Putin and China....you're full of shit.
 
When you hand over your manufacturing to a foreign entity, they can obviously see what you do and how you do it. The "theft" is a given should they decide now they know how, you are no longer necessary.

American manufacturing was never nationalized ,and lost any allegiance with globalization

If more board chairmen realized long-term is a death sentence in china, they'd have never gone there in the first place. What's more insidious is that China demands a foreign company have a chinese partner. That gives them a look at the total picture of a company...supply sources, vendor lists, customer lists, inventory, indebtedness....the whole ball of wax.

We bred globalists like flies who were all over cheap chinese labor , they LOVED the fact that it broke unions back here


They'd be better off dealing with the mafia here at home....at least the rackets boys know better than to cut the rainmakers out of the picture.

The mafia are pikers in comparision

~S~[/QUOTE]
 
Who knows. This is an asymmetrical situation - A President has to worry about politics and they don't.
.

Yep, I think you hit on the key, I don't think the Chinese have to DO anything, they just need to wait Trump out since he's got an election next year and can't afford the risk of a waning economy if he wants to have a decent chance at getting re-elected (IMHO if it even looks like we're going into recession next fall he might as well pack his shit and start moving out of the White House).

The Chinese can tolerate the economic discomfort from these tariffs until then.
As long as they don't give two shits about their own people suffering, they can either wait us out or get a better deal if Trump is worried about the election.

I'd guess they're in no hurry right now.
.

I don't think it's a matter of not caring about their own people's suffering, I think it's more of a matter of not wanting to be see to be kow-towing to the United States. The U.S. Administration has made some unacceptable demands of the Chinese relating to the specifics of their internal policies and legal framework and there is NO WAY the Chinese are going to accept that (just like we wouldn't accept it from them).

As you said the Chinese Leadership (Xi) has more maneuvering room politically but only as long as it isn't seen to be letting the U.S. push them around.

I think we're approaching the point where this is going to boil down to a deal where the Chinese agree to reduce the trade deficit through increased purchases of U.S. goods & services and increased market access, without agreeing to much else. Which oddly enough the U.S. could have gotten LAST YEAR.
 
Yeah, that story is true and it did come from Hank Paulson (well it's 'true' if you believe Paulson which I do since he didn't really have any reason to lie about it since it was after the fact) but it wasn't Treasuries the Russians proposed dumping it was bonds issued by Fannie & Freddie.

"Here I'm not going to name the senior person, but I was meeting with someone… This person told me that the Chinese had received a message from the Russians which was, 'Hey let's join together and sell Fannie and Freddie securities on the market.' The Chinese weren't going to do that but again, it just, it just drove home to me how vulnerable I felt until we had put Fannie and Freddie into conservator-ship" -- Henry Paulson

Bullshit...sell them to who?
Ummm.. the open and dark pool bond markets that operate all over the globe.

BTW, that would have been an act of war with a warrior in the WH...neither of them wanted to toy with Dubya.
Are you saying that Hank Paulson was lying? why would he lie about it after Fannie & Freddie had already gone into conservator-ship?

Paulson locked the bankers in a conference room in the WH and told they they weren't leaving until they signed notes to borrow enough to remain solvent...which they did. Then after Barry the Fairy took over, there was another meeting...a meeting the banksters dreaded because he's a communist and they figured they could well be arrested on the spot. Instead, he begged them for campaign money and they left laughing their asses off.
What does any of that have to do with the Russians contacting the Chinese about a coordinated sell off of Fannie & Freddie bonds?

No, I'm saying you're lying....no such conversation ever took place between Putin and China....you're full of shit.

I'm not the one that said it, Hank Paulson did, refer to the quote from Paulson's interview with the BBC for their documentary on the financial crisis.

.. and nobody mentioned Putin, Paulson did not mention any officials names.

So sorry that once again reality doesn't align with your internal narrative but you're just going to have to learn to live with it.


Russia 'planned Wall Street bear raid'
 
Trump has no plan A, B or any other plan against China as the trade war is backfiring and will slowly envelop US technology manufacturers.

Huawei has already developed its own chips and software for its mobile phones dumping US chips and Google Android.

Donald Trump's attempt to obstruct China's technology and economic advance is backfiring as China is accelerating its technology evolution and is planning to become a leading nation in technology by 2030.

Advances come rapidly in China. The time between concept and market introduction of products is much shorter than the USA.

Amazing examples of tech innovation in China
... China is adding 9,500 electric buses - the equivalent of a London fleet - to its roads every five weeks according to a report from Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

It makes China far and away the leader in electronic public transit - with 99 percent of the world's 385,000 electric buses operating in the country. ...

China will win the trade war and wean off American technology in 7 years, strategist says

China will win the trade war and wean off American technology in 7 years, strategist says
PUBLISHED TUE, SEP 10 2019 3:22 AM EDTUPDATED 2 HOURS AGO
Stella Soon

China will win the trade war with the U.S., and eventually wean itself off its reliance on American technology, a strategist told CNBC on Monday.

“China will never trust the United States again, and it will achieve its technology independence within seven years,” David Roche, Independent Strategy’s president and global strategist, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
China has traditionally been reliant on U.S. suppliers for key tech components such as chips and software, as well as modems and jet engines, but recent developments in the two countries’ protracted trade war have strained those ties and affected businesses from both sides.
It’s not just about trade. It’s about technology, it’s about the free flow of ideas, it is rapidly becoming about the free flow of individuals ... So it’s a really wide conflict, and it’s simply not gonna go away.
David Roche

In May, Chinese tech giant Huawei was placed on a U.S. blacklist, restricting the firm from purchasing American-made chips and software unless they got permission to do so. Some American mobile networks also use Huawei gear, while other U.S. companies have said their revenue will be affected by the blacklist.
Alphabet’s Google also halted all business activity with Huawei, a move that means future Huawei phones will no longer come installed with Google’s Android operating system.

Amid those tensions, China is reportedly surveying its tech companies to gauge their exposure to American suppliers, and also ramping up development in its own tech industry.

For instance, it is developing its own chip industry. Under the government-led Made in China 2025 initiative, the country aims to produce 40% of its semiconductors by 2020, and 70% by 2025.

Currently, only 16% of the semiconductors used in China are produced domestically, according to a February report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Just half of those are made by Chinese firms.
Roche predicted that the end of the trade war is not in sight, though talks are slated to resume in October.
That’s because the U.S.-China trade war isn’t about trade alone, he said.

“It is a conflict between a rising global power and a declining global power ... It’s not just about trade. It’s about technology, it’s about the free flow of ideas, it is rapidly becoming about the free flow of individuals,” Roche said.
“So it’s a really wide conflict, and it’s simply not gonna go away,” he concluded.

Amazing examples of tech innovation in China
In June 2016, Chinese president Xi Jinping outlined his vision for China to become the leading player in science and technology globally. Speaking at the national congress of the China Association for Science and Technology, he said the country must be on course to being a leading innovator worldwide by 2030.
According to a post on the Chinese Academy of Science website, Xi said: "Great scientific and technological capacity is a must for China to be strong and for people's lives to improve," adding that the country and even humankind "won't do without innovation, nor will it do if the innovation is carried out slowly."
Fast forward to 2019 and it's clear that the country is making technology innovation a major, major priority - having become a leader in quantum research, boldly challenging the USA in the supercomputer arms race, and creating its own successful space programmes. Zhejiang province where Alibaba is located just pledged a $17 billion commitment to driving technology over the next five years. And the country's startups scene is thriving.
Here are just some of the most amazing projects that have emerged from China in recent years:
Our daily dose of "but Trump is bad because...". Can't you find a better use of your time?

But just think, it gives you a chance to come on the forum and defend your god sitting in the White House. you should be thankful for such a chance
Please don't make fun of my God-it is not Trump as I'm sure yours is not. If the forum is a place to exchange ideas and opinions, then it wastes everyone's time complaining about or defending the current occupant of the white house.
 
Who knows. This is an asymmetrical situation - A President has to worry about politics and they don't.
.

Yep, I think you hit on the key, I don't think the Chinese have to DO anything, they just need to wait Trump out since he's got an election next year and can't afford the risk of a waning economy if he wants to have a decent chance at getting re-elected (IMHO if it even looks like we're going into recession next fall he might as well pack his shit and start moving out of the White House).

The Chinese can tolerate the economic discomfort from these tariffs until then.
As long as they don't give two shits about their own people suffering, they can either wait us out or get a better deal if Trump is worried about the election.

I'd guess they're in no hurry right now.
.
The people are rebelling as people can only suffer so much for so long. The Chinese are waving the American flag and asking for Trump to help them, not sure that he can but that will not stop their prayers
 
Who knows. This is an asymmetrical situation - A President has to worry about politics and they don't.
.

Yep, I think you hit on the key, I don't think the Chinese have to DO anything, they just need to wait Trump out since he's got an election next year and can't afford the risk of a waning economy if he wants to have a decent chance at getting re-elected (IMHO if it even looks like we're going into recession next fall he might as well pack his shit and start moving out of the White House).

The Chinese can tolerate the economic discomfort from these tariffs until then.
As long as they don't give two shits about their own people suffering, they can either wait us out or get a better deal if Trump is worried about the election.

I'd guess they're in no hurry right now.
.
The people are rebelling as people can only suffer so much for so long. The Chinese are waving the American flag and asking for Trump to help them, not sure that he can but that will not stop their prayers
FYI:
Mac was referring to the suffering of the Chinese people brought on by the current trade spat between the U.S. and China and there is no hint of rebellion on the Chinese Mainland due to that.

The Chinese American Flag waivers you're referring to are in Hong Kong and are protesting Chinese incursions of the HK-China sovereignty agreements, which has nothing to do with the threat of general rebellion in China.
 
Who knows. This is an asymmetrical situation - A President has to worry about politics and they don't.
.

Yep, I think you hit on the key, I don't think the Chinese have to DO anything, they just need to wait Trump out since he's got an election next year and can't afford the risk of a waning economy if he wants to have a decent chance at getting re-elected (IMHO if it even looks like we're going into recession next fall he might as well pack his shit and start moving out of the White House).

The Chinese can tolerate the economic discomfort from these tariffs until then.
As long as they don't give two shits about their own people suffering, they can either wait us out or get a better deal if Trump is worried about the election.

I'd guess they're in no hurry right now.
.
The people are rebelling as people can only suffer so much for so long. The Chinese are waving the American flag and asking for Trump to help them, not sure that he can but that will not stop their prayers
FYI:
Mac was referring to the suffering of the Chinese people brought on by the current trade spat between the U.S. and China and there is no hint of rebellion on the Chinese Mainland due to that.

The Chinese American Flag waivers you're referring to are in Hong Kong and are protesting Chinese incursions of the HK-China sovereignty agreements, which has nothing to do with the threat of general rebellion in China.
No Chinese are suffering because of the trade war...……………..they have no standard of living to be decreased.

Grow up
 

New Topics

Forum List

Back
Top