Trump has no plan: China will win the trade war and wean off American technology in 7 years

[CarlinAnnArbor]

Trump has no plan A, B or any other plan against China as the trade war is backfiring and will slowly envelop US technology manufacturers.

Huawei has already developed its own chips and software for its mobile phones dumping US chips and Google Android.

Donald Trump's attempt to obstruct China's technology and economic advance is backfiring as China is accelerating its technology evolution and is planning to become a leading nation in technology by 2030.

Advances come rapidly in China. The time between concept and market introduction of products is much shorter than the USA.

Amazing examples of tech innovation in China

... China is adding 9,500 electric buses - the equivalent of a London fleet - to its roads every five weeks according to a report from Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

It makes China far and away the leader in electronic public transit - with 99 percent of the world's 385,000 electric buses operating in the country. ...

China will win the trade war and wean off American technology in 7 years, strategist says

China will win the trade war and wean off American technology in 7 years, strategist says
PUBLISHED TUE, SEP 10 2019 3:22 AM EDTUPDATED 2 HOURS AGO
Stella Soon

China will win the trade war with the U.S., and eventually wean itself off its reliance on American technology, a strategist told CNBC on Monday.

“China will never trust the United States again, and it will achieve its technology independence within seven years,” David Roche, Independent Strategy’s president and global strategist, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
China has traditionally been reliant on U.S. suppliers for key tech components such as chips and software, as well as modems and jet engines, but recent developments in the two countries’ protracted trade war have strained those ties and affected businesses from both sides.
It’s not just about trade. It’s about technology, it’s about the free flow of ideas, it is rapidly becoming about the free flow of individuals ... So it’s a really wide conflict, and it’s simply not gonna go away.
David Roche

In May, Chinese tech giant Huawei was placed on a U.S. blacklist, restricting the firm from purchasing American-made chips and software unless they got permission to do so. Some American mobile networks also use Huawei gear, while other U.S. companies have said their revenue will be affected by the blacklist.
Alphabet’s Google also halted all business activity with Huawei, a move that means future Huawei phones will no longer come installed with Google’s Android operating system.

Amid those tensions, China is reportedly surveying its tech companies to gauge their exposure to American suppliers, and also ramping up development in its own tech industry.

For instance, it is developing its own chip industry. Under the government-led Made in China 2025 initiative, the country aims to produce 40% of its semiconductors by 2020, and 70% by 2025.

Currently, only 16% of the semiconductors used in China are produced domestically, according to a February report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Just half of those are made by Chinese firms.
Roche predicted that the end of the trade war is not in sight, though talks are slated to resume in October.
That’s because the U.S.-China trade war isn’t about trade alone, he said.

“It is a conflict between a rising global power and a declining global power ... It’s not just about trade. It’s about technology, it’s about the free flow of ideas, it is rapidly becoming about the free flow of individuals,” Roche said.
“So it’s a really wide conflict, and it’s simply not gonna go away,” he concluded.

Amazing examples of tech innovation in China

In June 2016, Chinese president Xi Jinping outlined his vision for China to become the leading player in science and technology globally. Speaking at the national congress of the China Association for Science and Technology, he said the country must be on course to being a leading innovator worldwide by 2030.
According to a post on the Chinese Academy of Science website, Xi said: "Great scientific and technological capacity is a must for China to be strong and for people's lives to improve," adding that the country and even humankind "won't do without innovation, nor will it do if the innovation is carried out slowly."
Fast forward to 2019 and it's clear that the country is making technology innovation a major, major priority - having become a leader in quantum research, boldly challenging the USA in the supercomputer arms race, and creating its own successful space programmes. Zhejiang province where Alibaba is located just pledged a $17 billion commitment to driving technology over the next five years. And the country's startups scene is thriving.
Here are just some of the most amazing projects that have emerged from China in recent years:

A communist China worshipper. Not surprised. I'm sure he supports forced abortions and social scores that China

 

[NightFox]

Who knows. This is an asymmetrical situation - A President has to worry about politics and they don't.
.

Yep, I think you hit on the key, I don't think the Chinese have to DO anything, they just need to wait Trump out since he's got an election next year and can't afford the risk of a waning economy if he wants to have a decent chance at getting re-elected (IMHO if it even looks like we're going into recession next fall he might as well pack his shit and start moving out of the White House).

The Chinese can tolerate the economic discomfort from these tariffs until then.

As long as they don't give two shits about their own people suffering, they can either wait us out or get a better deal if Trump is worried about the election.

I'd guess they're in no hurry right now.
.

The people are rebelling as people can only suffer so much for so long. The Chinese are waving the American flag and asking for Trump to help them, not sure that he can but that will not stop their prayers

FYI:
Mac was referring to the suffering of the Chinese people brought on by the current trade spat between the U.S. and China and there is no hint of rebellion on the Chinese Mainland due to that.

The Chinese American Flag waivers you're referring to are in Hong Kong and are protesting Chinese incursions of the HK-China sovereignty agreements, which has nothing to do with the threat of general rebellion in China.

No Chinese are suffering because of the trade war...……………..they have no standard of living to be decreased.

Grow up

Yeah ok, cool story bro.

.. and in other news, the proliferation of completely fact free posts on the Internet has reached epic proportions.

 

[Frannie]

Yep, I think you hit on the key, I don't think the Chinese have to DO anything, they just need to wait Trump out since he's got an election next year and can't afford the risk of a waning economy if he wants to have a decent chance at getting re-elected (IMHO if it even looks like we're going into recession next fall he might as well pack his shit and start moving out of the White House).

The Chinese can tolerate the economic discomfort from these tariffs until then.

As long as they don't give two shits about their own people suffering, they can either wait us out or get a better deal if Trump is worried about the election.

I'd guess they're in no hurry right now.
.

The people are rebelling as people can only suffer so much for so long. The Chinese are waving the American flag and asking for Trump to help them, not sure that he can but that will not stop their prayers

FYI:
Mac was referring to the suffering of the Chinese people brought on by the current trade spat between the U.S. and China and there is no hint of rebellion on the Chinese Mainland due to that.

The Chinese American Flag waivers you're referring to are in Hong Kong and are protesting Chinese incursions of the HK-China sovereignty agreements, which has nothing to do with the threat of general rebellion in China.

No Chinese are suffering because of the trade war...……………..they have no standard of living to be decreased.

Grow up

Yeah ok, cool story bro.

.. and in other news, the proliferation of completely fact free posts on the Internet has reached epic proportions.

Actually you presented no facts that either the Chinese are suffering more than usual because of the trade war, or even that they have knowledge that such a thing is even happening.

So continue wanking kid, the average Chinese person has no standard of living that could be decreased

 

[NightFox]

As long as they don't give two shits about their own people suffering, they can either wait us out or get a better deal if Trump is worried about the election.

I'd guess they're in no hurry right now.
.

The people are rebelling as people can only suffer so much for so long. The Chinese are waving the American flag and asking for Trump to help them, not sure that he can but that will not stop their prayers

FYI:
Mac was referring to the suffering of the Chinese people brought on by the current trade spat between the U.S. and China and there is no hint of rebellion on the Chinese Mainland due to that.

The Chinese American Flag waivers you're referring to are in Hong Kong and are protesting Chinese incursions of the HK-China sovereignty agreements, which has nothing to do with the threat of general rebellion in China.

No Chinese are suffering because of the trade war...……………..they have no standard of living to be decreased.

Grow up

Yeah ok, cool story bro.

.. and in other news, the proliferation of completely fact free posts on the Internet has reached epic proportions.

Actually you presented no facts that either the Chinese are suffering more than usual because of the trade war, or even that they have knowledge that such a thing is even happening.

So continue wanking kid, the average Chinese person has no standard of living that could be decreased

Thank you for your continued endeavors to garner my attention, I'm flattered, to show how much I appreciate your efforts I've managed to reserve a place for you in /dev/null.

Auf Wiedersehen

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Who knows. This is an asymmetrical situation - A President has to worry about politics and they don't.
.

Yep, I think you hit on the key, I don't think the Chinese have to DO anything, they just need to wait Trump out since he's got an election next year and can't afford the risk of a waning economy if he wants to have a decent chance at getting re-elected (IMHO if it even looks like we're going into recession next fall he might as well pack his shit and start moving out of the White House).

The Chinese can tolerate the economic discomfort from these tariffs until then.

As long as they don't give two shits about their own people suffering, they can either wait us out or get a better deal if Trump is worried about the election.

I'd guess they're in no hurry right now.
.

China desperately wants a democrat. Trump needs to spy on the democrats to make sure the Chinese don't hack our democracy, right?

 

[Frannie]

The people are rebelling as people can only suffer so much for so long. The Chinese are waving the American flag and asking for Trump to help them, not sure that he can but that will not stop their prayers

FYI:
Mac was referring to the suffering of the Chinese people brought on by the current trade spat between the U.S. and China and there is no hint of rebellion on the Chinese Mainland due to that.

The Chinese American Flag waivers you're referring to are in Hong Kong and are protesting Chinese incursions of the HK-China sovereignty agreements, which has nothing to do with the threat of general rebellion in China.

No Chinese are suffering because of the trade war...……………..they have no standard of living to be decreased.

Grow up

Yeah ok, cool story bro.

.. and in other news, the proliferation of completely fact free posts on the Internet has reached epic proportions.

Actually you presented no facts that either the Chinese are suffering more than usual because of the trade war, or even that they have knowledge that such a thing is even happening.

So continue wanking kid, the average Chinese person has no standard of living that could be decreased

Thank you for your continued endeavors to garner my attention, I'm flattered, to show how much I appreciate your efforts I've managed to reserve a place for you in /dev/null.

Auf Wiedersehen

Actually you presented no facts that either the Chinese are suffering more than usual because of the trade war, or even that they have knowledge that such a thing is even happening.

So continue wanking kid, the average Chinese person has no standard of living that could be decreased

 

[toomuchtime_]

Considering how heavily dependent China's economy is on exports, it is not clear this condition is sustainable for China.

Seeing it means China gains market share elsewhere I'd say sustainability won't be an issue.

If China could have compensated for the loss of market share in the US, it would not have had to devalue its currency. Now China has suspended some of its tariffs on imports from the US because Chinese people and industries are suffering from having to pay higher prices. China's great weakness is that its economy is so heavily dependent on exports, unlike the US economy which depends mostly on domestic consumption, that even small disruptions in export trade is felt all through the economy. With large US companies worrying that the trade war might go on for a long time, and searching for alternatives to Chinese goods, China is in danger of long term loss of market share even if the war is eventually resolved.

The only thing that can save China is a Democrat in the WH, so China will be watching the election news very carefully, and if the election seems close, China will seek a softer deal with Trump before the election because if he wins China will not get good terms. What kind of a deal China will get depends on how confident Trump is of reelection.

 

[WTH_Progs?]

ILMAO @ Trump w/o a plan. OP figures our POTUS is complacent like Obama.

 

[Terri4Trump]

Trump has no plan..........

Thats a bald faced lie. Everything you post is a bald faced lie, assumptions with no proof.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Seeing it means China gains market share elsewhere I'd say sustainability won't be an issue.

If China could have compensated for the loss of market share in the US, it would not have had to devalue its currency. Now China has suspended some of its tariffs on imports from the US because Chinese people and industries are suffering from having to pay higher prices. China's great weakness is that its economy is so heavily dependent on exports, unlike the US economy which depends mostly on domestic consumption, that even small disruptions in export trade is felt all through the economy. With large US companies worrying that the trade war might go on for a long time, and searching for alternatives to Chinese goods, China is in danger of long term loss of market share even if the war is eventually resolved.
[/QUOTE]

It takes time for the market share to be replaced, thus China is taking short term measures in the meantime.

If we depended mostly on domestic consumption we would not be in this scenario to start with. Much of what we consume does not originate here and we cannot make enough here to satisfy the demand.

 

[Denizen]

Trump has no plan..........

Thats a bald faced lie. Everything you post is a bald faced lie, assumptions with no proof.

If I cultivated some facial hair and dyed it orange would you kneel for me?

 

[iamwhatiseem]

Dream on, buddy.

Just more Orange Man Bad from the king parrot himself

 

[toomuchtime_]

Seeing it means China gains market share elsewhere I'd say sustainability won't be an issue.

If China could have compensated for the loss of market share in the US, it would not have had to devalue its currency. Now China has suspended some of its tariffs on imports from the US because Chinese people and industries are suffering from having to pay higher prices. China's great weakness is that its economy is so heavily dependent on exports, unlike the US economy which depends mostly on domestic consumption, that even small disruptions in export trade is felt all through the economy. With large US companies worrying that the trade war might go on for a long time, and searching for alternatives to Chinese goods, China is in danger of long term loss of market share even if the war is eventually resolved.

It takes time for the market share to be replaced, thus China is taking short term measures in the meantime.

If we depended mostly on domestic consumption we would not be in this scenario to start with. Much of what we consume does not originate here and we cannot make enough here to satisfy the demand.[/QUOTE]
In 2018, U.S. GDP was 69% personal consumption, 18% business investment, 17% government spending, and negative 5% net exports.

Four Critical Components of America's Economic Growth

US tariffs had priced many Chinese goods out of competition, and China had to devalue its currency to compete in the US marketplace. In effect, in devaluing its currency, China is absorbing the cost of US tariffs - paying the tariffs and President Trump had stated they would.

It does not take much time to find new suppliers for goods that had previously been imported from China. As the US tariffs raised the price of imports from China other companies that have been trying to break into the US market stood to gain from China's losses, and with the Trump tax cuts on business and eased regulations, domestic producers could now compete, and with all the anxiety about how long the trade war would last, finding new suppliers became much more attractive to US importers. That's why China devalued its currency, to avoid taking a major economic hit from the US tariffs.

On the other hand, with the exception of a few farmers, the US has not suffered at all from China's retaliatory tariffs; on the contrary, China is suffering from its own tariffs and recently had to suspend some of them because needed US goods were being priced too high for Chinese businesses and consumers.

 

[Markle]

Trump has no plan A, B or any other plan against China as the trade war is backfiring and will slowly envelop US technology manufacturers.

 

[Markle]

Who knows. This is an asymmetrical situation - A President has to worry about politics and they don't.

Does it really look like President Donald Trump worries about politics? He worries, and does, what is best for America.

That's why we elected him and will again in 2020.

 

[Denizen]

Seeing it means China gains market share elsewhere I'd say sustainability won't be an issue.

If China could have compensated for the loss of market share in the US, it would not have had to devalue its currency. Now China has suspended some of its tariffs on imports from the US because Chinese people and industries are suffering from having to pay higher prices. China's great weakness is that its economy is so heavily dependent on exports, unlike the US economy which depends mostly on domestic consumption, that even small disruptions in export trade is felt all through the economy. With large US companies worrying that the trade war might go on for a long time, and searching for alternatives to Chinese goods, China is in danger of long term loss of market share even if the war is eventually resolved.

It takes time for the market share to be replaced, thus China is taking short term measures in the meantime.

If we depended mostly on domestic consumption we would not be in this scenario to start with. Much of what we consume does not originate here and we cannot make enough here to satisfy the demand.

In 2018, U.S. GDP was 69% personal consumption, 18% business investment, 17% government spending, and negative 5% net exports.

Four Critical Components of America's Economic Growth

US tariffs had priced many Chinese goods out of competition, and China had to devalue its currency to compete in the US marketplace. In effect, in devaluing its currency, China is absorbing the cost of US tariffs - paying the tariffs and President Trump had stated they would.

It does not take much time to find new suppliers for goods that had previously been imported from China. As the US tariffs raised the price of imports from China other companies that have been trying to break into the US market stood to gain from China's losses, and with the Trump tax cuts on business and eased regulations, domestic producers could now compete, and with all the anxiety about how long the trade war would last, finding new suppliers became much more attractive to US importers. That's why China devalued its currency, to avoid taking a major economic hit from the US tariffs.

On the other hand, with the exception of a few farmers, the US has not suffered at all from China's retaliatory tariffs; on the contrary, China is suffering from its own tariffs and recently had to suspend some of them because needed US goods were being priced too high for Chinese businesses and consumers.[/QUOTE]

Huawei has demonstrated that China has a very fast reaction time to US actions. Huawei has already evolved its own chips and software to defeat bans on US exports from chip manufacturers and Google Android.

US manufacturing has been in recession for 2 quarters, and one of the reason is the disruption of the supply chain of inputs to US manufacturers from Chinese suppliers.

Its likely that a number of these new suppliers to US are cleverly disguised Chinese goods routed through third countries.

 

[toomuchtime_]

Seeing it means China gains market share elsewhere I'd say sustainability won't be an issue.

If China could have compensated for the loss of market share in the US, it would not have had to devalue its currency. Now China has suspended some of its tariffs on imports from the US because Chinese people and industries are suffering from having to pay higher prices. China's great weakness is that its economy is so heavily dependent on exports, unlike the US economy which depends mostly on domestic consumption, that even small disruptions in export trade is felt all through the economy. With large US companies worrying that the trade war might go on for a long time, and searching for alternatives to Chinese goods, China is in danger of long term loss of market share even if the war is eventually resolved.

It takes time for the market share to be replaced, thus China is taking short term measures in the meantime.

If we depended mostly on domestic consumption we would not be in this scenario to start with. Much of what we consume does not originate here and we cannot make enough here to satisfy the demand.

In 2018, U.S. GDP was 69% personal consumption, 18% business investment, 17% government spending, and negative 5% net exports.

Four Critical Components of America's Economic Growth

US tariffs had priced many Chinese goods out of competition, and China had to devalue its currency to compete in the US marketplace. In effect, in devaluing its currency, China is absorbing the cost of US tariffs - paying the tariffs and President Trump had stated they would.

It does not take much time to find new suppliers for goods that had previously been imported from China. As the US tariffs raised the price of imports from China other companies that have been trying to break into the US market stood to gain from China's losses, and with the Trump tax cuts on business and eased regulations, domestic producers could now compete, and with all the anxiety about how long the trade war would last, finding new suppliers became much more attractive to US importers. That's why China devalued its currency, to avoid taking a major economic hit from the US tariffs.

On the other hand, with the exception of a few farmers, the US has not suffered at all from China's retaliatory tariffs; on the contrary, China is suffering from its own tariffs and recently had to suspend some of them because needed US goods were being priced too high for Chinese businesses and consumers.

Huawei has demonstrated that China has a very fast reaction time to US actions. Huawei has already evolved its own chips and software to defeat bans on US exports from chip manufacturers and Google Android.

US manufacturing has been in recession for 2 quarters, and one of the reason is the disruption of the supply chain of inputs to US manufacturers from Chinese suppliers.

Its likely that a number of these new suppliers to US are cleverly disguised Chinese goods routed through third countries.[/QUOTE]
Democrats standing shoulder to shoulder with America's enemies. We have not been in recession and there is no shortage of Chinese imports. Why do you feel it's necessary to lie to bash America?

 

[Denizen]

Seeing it means China gains market share elsewhere I'd say sustainability won't be an issue.

If China could have compensated for the loss of market share in the US, it would not have had to devalue its currency. Now China has suspended some of its tariffs on imports from the US because Chinese people and industries are suffering from having to pay higher prices. China's great weakness is that its economy is so heavily dependent on exports, unlike the US economy which depends mostly on domestic consumption, that even small disruptions in export trade is felt all through the economy. With large US companies worrying that the trade war might go on for a long time, and searching for alternatives to Chinese goods, China is in danger of long term loss of market share even if the war is eventually resolved.

It takes time for the market share to be replaced, thus China is taking short term measures in the meantime.

If we depended mostly on domestic consumption we would not be in this scenario to start with. Much of what we consume does not originate here and we cannot make enough here to satisfy the demand.

In 2018, U.S. GDP was 69% personal consumption, 18% business investment, 17% government spending, and negative 5% net exports.

Four Critical Components of America's Economic Growth

US tariffs had priced many Chinese goods out of competition, and China had to devalue its currency to compete in the US marketplace. In effect, in devaluing its currency, China is absorbing the cost of US tariffs - paying the tariffs and President Trump had stated they would.

It does not take much time to find new suppliers for goods that had previously been imported from China. As the US tariffs raised the price of imports from China other companies that have been trying to break into the US market stood to gain from China's losses, and with the Trump tax cuts on business and eased regulations, domestic producers could now compete, and with all the anxiety about how long the trade war would last, finding new suppliers became much more attractive to US importers. That's why China devalued its currency, to avoid taking a major economic hit from the US tariffs.

On the other hand, with the exception of a few farmers, the US has not suffered at all from China's retaliatory tariffs; on the contrary, China is suffering from its own tariffs and recently had to suspend some of them because needed US goods were being priced too high for Chinese businesses and consumers.

Huawei has demonstrated that China has a very fast reaction time to US actions. Huawei has already evolved its own chips and software to defeat bans on US exports from chip manufacturers and Google Android.

US manufacturing has been in recession for 2 quarters, and one of the reason is the disruption of the supply chain of inputs to US manufacturers from Chinese suppliers.

Its likely that a number of these new suppliers to US are cleverly disguised Chinese goods routed through third countries.

Democrats standing shoulder to shoulder with America's enemies. We have not been in recession and there is no shortage of Chinese imports. Why do you feel it's necessary to lie to bash America?[/QUOTE]

Agent Orange Donald Trump is America's enemy.

Donald Trump has tried and failed to derail the successful, booming, economy Obama gifted to him.

Donald Trump's lies and inciteful blather to his howling mobs does not constitute strategy or policy.

The US has a $ 1 trillion deficit in 11 months of 2019 which is likely to end at $ 1.1+ trillion by 12 months.

Biggest trade deficits ever.

Biggest budget deficits ever.

Biggest national debt ever.

Wrong-way, wrong-headed, Agent Orange Donald Trump.