The "Point Spread" is NOT some expert's assessment of which team will win the game, and by how many points. As in, "The Packers are favored by 8."
It is the number of points that the bookies have to give the underdog in order to equalize betting dollars. They require approximately equal betting in order to maximize their profits regardless of who wins.
To illustrate, let's say Jesus Christ comes back from the dead and plays for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Place-kicker. Millions of football fans and even non-fans are going to bet for the Steelers for reasons unrelated to a rational assessment of the game. Therefore, the bookies will have to give the Steelers' opponent gobs of points in order to get people to bet on the opponent, to equalize the bets. A wise bettor will take the points.
And so it is with teams like Notre Dame, the Steelers, the Cowboys, and a few others. The betting line will always reflect the tendency of irrational bettors to favor these teams, so a wise bettor will take advantage of the point spread and bet against these teams - and will come out ahead in the long run.
At least in theory.
It is the number of points that the bookies have to give the underdog in order to equalize betting dollars. They require approximately equal betting in order to maximize their profits regardless of who wins.
To illustrate, let's say Jesus Christ comes back from the dead and plays for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Place-kicker. Millions of football fans and even non-fans are going to bet for the Steelers for reasons unrelated to a rational assessment of the game. Therefore, the bookies will have to give the Steelers' opponent gobs of points in order to get people to bet on the opponent, to equalize the bets. A wise bettor will take the points.
And so it is with teams like Notre Dame, the Steelers, the Cowboys, and a few others. The betting line will always reflect the tendency of irrational bettors to favor these teams, so a wise bettor will take advantage of the point spread and bet against these teams - and will come out ahead in the long run.
At least in theory.
