There’s a Way to See How Much Donald Trump’s Nomination Has Cost the G.O.P.
From autumn 2015 to spring 2016, the Republican was beating the Democrat in the generic ballot question. In January 2016, for example, the spread was seven points — 39 percent for the Democrat and 46 percent for the Republican. As it became clear that Mr. Trump would be the nominee, the pattern changed and the Democratic candidate went ahead. By the end of July, the Democrat had 44 percent and the Republican 36 percent — a complete reversal.
One way to view this switch is as the price for nominating Mr. Trump.
________________________________________________________________________
So the Republican Party went from leading by 7 points to losing. Did the Trump nomination do that?
From autumn 2015 to spring 2016, the Republican was beating the Democrat in the generic ballot question. In January 2016, for example, the spread was seven points — 39 percent for the Democrat and 46 percent for the Republican. As it became clear that Mr. Trump would be the nominee, the pattern changed and the Democratic candidate went ahead. By the end of July, the Democrat had 44 percent and the Republican 36 percent — a complete reversal.
One way to view this switch is as the price for nominating Mr. Trump.
________________________________________________________________________
So the Republican Party went from leading by 7 points to losing. Did the Trump nomination do that?