Polymarket, one the leading predictors, says there is
a 37% chance America will slip into a recession in 2025. Kalshi, another leading predictor, says
there’s a 42% chance. Both numbers have rise sharply in the past week.
Who or what is Polymarket?
Traders use Polymarket to predict outcomes, but
the platform itself doesn't predict future events. It measures how the crowd currently estimates probability based on available information, similar to how a thermometer measures current temperature rather than predicting it.
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Simply stated, Polymarket is not predicting anything, meaning that they cannot be accused of being biased. What they report is what the thinking is overall at this time, among the populace.
By the way, the Title says 39% chance and the link above says 37%. The reason for that is that the article is from November 24th and the 39% is from the current number given on their website:
Polymarket | The World's Largest Prediction Market
